21-04-2003 08:00									#181
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They won't retreat when fortified, I don't think they will retreat from a city in any case. I've run through it about 100 times and I've never gotten to the point where a WC defends. They would have to win 10 of 11 battles at 50-70% odds to get to one right? If they get that type of luck, it doesn't matter what we do.

	21-04-2003 08:08									#182
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Vox doesn't have to win a battle to help uncover a WC; just get a pike down to one hit point or a swordsman or medieval infantry down to two if they don't kill it. But with eleven attackers, they would have to do that much damage in ten battles out of ten for their eleventh attacker to get a shot at a WC. The odds of that happening are small enough that I can't see worryng about the possibility.

	21-04-2003 08:14									#183
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I just tested 40 Reg NumMercs vs 20 Elite Chariots unfortified in a city.

20 dead Chariots. No retreats.

	21-04-2003 08:17									#184
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The one thing we might want to consider if we're paranoid enough is pulling our elite WC back a tile. That way if Vox does get unbelievably lucky, it will be a veteran rather than an elite that gets hit.

	21-04-2003 08:23									#185
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Good idea.

	21-04-2003 09:54									#186
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Good thinking, better safe than sorry. I'd rather have a Vet WC die than a 1hp Pike that will be healed up the next turn, but the Elites we should definitely protect.

	21-04-2003 19:14									#187
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I really hope they do go ahead and attack Arashi.

First, I think we have the advantage in such a battle, and second I'm just tired of waiting.

As for how much of their stack they will be willing to throw against those walls, well, I think that all depends on just how lucky they get with the first attacks. We have 5 pikemen in there, right? Well, if after 5 Immortal attacks they can see something that isn't a pikeman, I think they'll go ahead and throw in the rest. If, however, after 5 attacks they have 5 dead immortals and are looking at a full-strength pikeman (could happen), they might just call it off.

-Arrian

	21-04-2003 19:30									#188
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In such a case (stopping half way through), they will most likely pillage the road to keep WCs from countering, and at that time they are relatively safe. I don't think we'll be wanting to risk swordsmen to attack healthy vet immortals on a mountain, we should upgrade more of them to med infs if we want to retake the mountain.

If they don't pillage the road, they will be making a mistake, and we have a chance with our WCs, even if the odds aren't in our favor.

DeepO

	21-04-2003 19:37									#189
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I certainly wouldn't want to attack up a mountain with WCs. That tends to be a waste of WCs.

Cat hits + Med Inf is needed to dislodge Voxian troops from mountians, if it comes to that (my hope would be if they take a nasty beating, they will withdraw up the mountains and try & fight a defensive war).

We'll see. Next turn we should find out which side the RNG Gods are on.

-Arrian

	21-04-2003 19:42									#190
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Do we want to take them on the mountain? Why not stay in a constant stand-off? We have the advantage, flanking them seems a better investment of WC

	21-04-2003 19:48									#191
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Re: attacking them on a mountain...

Only if it makes sense. If they have beat-up units on a mountain, and we can hit those beat-up units with med inf, it may be worth it (clearly, it's something we'd discuss the pros & cons of).

Having Voxian troops on A9 is an annoyance... and requires that we keep enough troops in the area to deal with them should we have to. Therefore, whittling them down with cats and then finally finishing them off (if they don't start to retreat as they lose hps to our cats) makes sense to me. I'm certainly not going to risk any WC's on the endeavor, though. It's strictly a Med Inf kinda job.

-Arrian

	21-04-2003 19:57									#192
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... which is a bit of a problem, we currently have a grand total of 2 med infs, if I'm not mistaken. That won't help much.

DeepO

	21-04-2003 20:30									#193
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True, nuff....but we've got some swordsmen lying about who are upgrade candidates, and with our production, we can easily see a dramatic increase in the number of Medievals we've got to work with.

I'd not be opposed to launching an attack with our WC's at the battered stack, mountainous or no....if they attack next turn, they'll be in sorry shape, and our cats will have gotten three chances at them (one shot last turn, again when they attack, and again at the start of our next turn). That should leave whatever's left alive in the stack a sorry sight indeed, and our full strength WC's (even if they are somewhat disadvantaged by the terrain), should be able to score us some kills (especially if we lead with the medievals we've got).

Depends on how the attack plays out tho....

-=Vel=-

	21-04-2003 20:34									#194
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Vel, unless the target is at 1hp, attacking with a WC isn't that great of an idea.

2 defense + 100% mtn bonus = 4. WCs attack at 2. Bear in mind that the beat up units we would be attacking would in most cases be immortals that won a battle, and therefore if we attack & lost, they would get the auto-promotion.

Anyway, let's see how things develop.

Anybody else surprised that they haven't made any effort to move on Monsoon? Not even a spearman to force us to do something about it...

-Arrian

	21-04-2003 20:38									#195
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Anybody else surprised that they haven't made any effort to move on Monsoon? Not even a spearman to force us to do something about it...

Perhaps they were traumatized by the loss of the two immortals that they landed at the start of the war on open terrain (I still remember how Wittlich couldn't believe Nathan when he said that we scored a kill).
If they continue to stay on high terrain for another turn or two, I think we can safely assume that they won't move immortals to open terrain anymore if they can help it.

	21-04-2003 20:42									#196
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If we take on one, we have to take them all on, and get rid of them IMHO.

	21-04-2003 20:51									#197
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Shiber,

Yeah, probably. They seem to think they are going to take Arashi. Then they could just mop up Monsoon easily.

Of course, they might just be surprised at the welcome party we have for them in Arashi...

-Arrian

	21-04-2003 21:28									#198
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The mountainous terrain would not prevent our attacking WC's from retreating, would it? If not, despite having the odds agasint us, we could turn "wounded immortal plinking" in the mountains into a profitable enterprise--providing we lead with medievals to take out their spearmen. Next turn should tell the tale tho....

As to our smaller burgs...not really too surprised, no....they're thinking that Arashi's gonna be a walkover, and once they've dealt with our forces there, they can disperse and snag our outlying towns that have few, if any defenders.

Boy are they in for a surpise....

-=Vel=-

	21-04-2003 22:14									#199
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Fast-movers never retreat against an opponent with only one hit point left, and that's likely to be the case more often than not when WCs lose to immortals that have two hit points left at the start of the battle (and will always be the case on the rarer times losing to immortals that just have one when attacked). That makes our retreat odds significantly worse, and the immortals' odds of promotion significantly better.

	21-04-2003 22:18									#200
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Vox probably has a pretty good idea what war chariots would do to them if they go after Monsoon. They need to take Arashi before they can attack Monsoon without expecting horrible losses.

	21-04-2003 22:37									#201
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay Fast-movers never retreat against an opponent with only one hit point left, and that's likely to be the case more often than not when WCs lose to immortals that have two hit points left at the start of the battle (and will always be the case on the rarer times losing to immortals that just have one when attacked). That makes our retreat odds significantly worse, and the immortals' odds of promotion significantly better.

Exactly.

I learned the hard way that one of the best ways to lose horsemen was to attack a 2hp spearman on a mountain or hill. More often than not (it seems) the horsie would knock off 1hp and then die.

If the defender starts at 1hp, though, your 4hp should be enough to carry the day, even with the 2:1 advantage per roll for the defender. The possibility of defeat remains, and even if you win, you will probably be down to 1hp.

-Arrian

	24-04-2003 05:13									#202
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I have been DYING TO ask this somewhere, and couldn;t for lack of a private forum.

What are the damn retreat odds now?

I agree with the above statements about being careful of 1hp non-retreat, but I've been toying with the idea of using WCs sorta like Arty... whittle down the first few hps of a number of units, and follow up with the more powerful units.

	24-04-2003 05:24									#203
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The editor lists "Retreat bonus"
Conscript: 34
Regular: 50
Vet: 58
Elite:66

I'm not sure if these are actual values or are added to a base value (my guess is that they are the actual values, they seem about right)

	24-04-2003 05:27									#204
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Retreat is linked to the experience level of the units. It's 50:50 when both units are at the same experience level. Not sure on how much better/worse it gets for uneven matchups, but I think it's ~10% per level difference.

WC's/Horses make very costly Catapults.

	24-04-2003 05:34									#205
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Maybe, maybe not...

Remember, for vets that is 58% on *the last hp.*

	24-04-2003 05:52									#206
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Against 2 defense units on Mountains (if they move off the Mountains then of course attacking is worth it):

We have about a 30-33% chance for each HP depending on whether their unit is fortified or not. In a 3-4 HP battle (the next roll being the retreat) it would be expected for us to hit about 1 time. It's trading 2 HPs of WC (since we save roughly 50% of them) for 1 HP of whatever they are attacking, on average.

Compare that to a Cat, which if we defend gets 50:50 free shots with no risk. The Cat doesn't hit as much, but is far more efficient from a HP risked to HP gained standpoint (0:0.5). That's why I say WC's/Horses are expensive Catapults.

	24-04-2003 05:57									#207
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Yeah, I know.

* Theseus drags feet...

1) I just want some WAR.

2) I just want to smack Vox.

(Scary sidenote thought: How many generals in history have felt this way... and acted?)

	24-04-2003 06:16									#208
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Arashi can be our Marathon... Alexander comes later.

	24-04-2003 06:46									#209
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus Yeah, I know. * Theseus drags feet... 1) I just want some WAR. 2) I just want to smack Vox. (Scary sidenote thought: How many generals in history have felt this way... and acted?)

That's what scares me when you request horses when I'm far from convinced we have enough pikes.

In my mind, the perfect battle plan consists of two steps.

1) Build up decisive force.

2) Use it.

	24-04-2003 18:24									#210
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KILL MAIM DESTROY PILLAGE BURN!

*Arrian wanders off, muttering incoherently*