29-05-2003 17:06									#91
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quote: Originally posted by Kropotkin If the soviet economic system was so inferior there wouldn't be any need for the arms race, instead an arms race only would lead to risks of a nuclear war.

Well Reagan's arms race brought some extra pressure on the system. But the USSR could have just frozen its military spending. It could have reverted to a more authoritarian system, as shown in the failed coup attempt against Gorbachev.

Of course, Reagan the Sovietslayer and inevitable Soviet autocollapse are both pushed by the rightwingers - logic has never deterred left- or rightwing ideologues from believing in those fairy tales they love so much.

	29-05-2003 18:53									#92
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quote: Originally posted by DanS The US can actually do a lot pretty much in the open. We did it successfully in Serbia just a couple of years ago.

Is Iran about to deport 20% of its population perhaps?

And I think many Americans tend to over-estimate US' role in bringing down Milosevic.

	29-05-2003 19:13									#93
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I overlooked that DanS quote.

	29-05-2003 19:15									#94
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Milosevic did not have half the control over the security apparatus that the Mullahs in Iran do.

I do think that a new revolution in Iran may be coming within 10-20 years. I don;t expect the new Iranian government after that to be less nuclear happy than the current one, anymore than Pak's few democratic governments were lss nuclear happy than the military ones.

	29-05-2003 19:20									#95
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Think about it Dan. I'm not going to provide a link for this one.

Richelieu: You don't have to provide a link. Examples will do.

I think your position relies on the thought that if we just stay quiet, the bad things will pass over time. As an old Amnesty letter writer, that just doesn't sit well with me as a policy.

Is Iran about to deport 20% of its population perhaps?

Colon: You're thinking Kosovo. I'm thinking of the elections afterwards.

And I think many Americans tend to over-estimate US' role in bringing down Milosevic.

We contributed to it. Nothing more. We spent about $15 million openly (political organization classes for activists and the like). Don't know how much covertly (cell phones for activists and the like).

	29-05-2003 19:22									#96
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quote: Is Iran about to deport 20% of its population perhaps?

Exactly... but the American misinformation machine will have you believe they were exterminated in Serbian death camps.

	29-05-2003 19:24									#97
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Don't know how much covertly (cell phones for activists and the like).

Well at least I can be sure now that you're mostly joking.

	29-05-2003 19:48									#98
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Not joking at all. All of this organizational and propaganda equipment was helpful in bringing Milosevic down.

Training, polling, equipment are the bread and butter of a good campaign. The equipment was also helpful in sealing the deal afterward.

Last edited by DanS on 29-05-2003 at 19:54

	30-05-2003 22:08									#99
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Is Iran about to deport 20% of its population perhaps? Colon: You're thinking Kosovo. I'm thinking of the elections afterwards. We contributed to it. Nothing more. We spent about $15 million openly (political organization classes for activists and the like). Don't know how much covertly (cell phones for activists and the like).

The elections wouldn't have been held if it weren't for the calamnity in Kosovo and neither would the US have supported domestic opposition. Or at least it wouldn't have had the pretext to do so openly.
When it comes to foreign influence, what really clinched Milosevic fall was when Putin said he could shove it.

All in all, there's little that compares Serbia to Iran.

	30-05-2003 22:11									#100
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Kvak!

	30-05-2003 22:17									#101
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Kvak!

	01-06-2003 07:36									#102
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quote: I don't agree, yet. What's happening in Iran has been going on for a long time, well before Bush's administration. We've seen the failure of democracy in Iran, as it is now clear that it is run by an oligarchy which doesn't give a damn about democracy. In fact the reform movement has played an important part in the operations of the mullahs, by disguising the true attitudes and actions of the regime. Thus the bad boys in Iran support terror on an industrial scale and pursue nuclear weapons and missles while the Iranian on the street as well as the international community get caught up in the melodrama in parliment. But it's the mullahs who write that script, and they only trot out poor Khatami when they have to explain something to their people or the rest of the world. I doubt that he really knows what is going on half the time.

I really disagree with your opinion of the reformists. To say that are basically puppets by Khameini et al. is absurd. The reforms are pretty damn far from superficial; hell Iran is more free than most states in the region - including our allies.

They've had some serious setbacks, sure, but they've been close to bringing about serious political change a few times in the past couple years. The ammo we've been giving the Mullahs ever since 9/11 has been absolutely pivotal in tipping the balance against the reform movement.

If Khatami and the reformists actually manage to discredit the government by resigning without being labelled American-funded instigators, etc., etc., with any credibility, honestly, I think the Iranian state would have a revolution on its hands.

	01-06-2003 07:41									#103
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quote: If Khatami and the reformists actually manage to discredit the government by resigning without being labelled American-funded instigators, etc., etc., with any credibility, honestly, I think the Iranian state would have a revolution on its hands.

Totally doubt it. It wouldn't matter worth a damn if they resigned. The Mullahs control everything and the military is on their side. Let Khatami resign, it wouldn't matter.

	01-06-2003 07:58									#104
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The Shah controlled everything, and the military was on his side.

	01-06-2003 07:59									#105
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The ammo we've been giving the Mullahs ever since 9/11 has been absolutely pivotal in tipping the balance against the reform movement.

What evidence do you have for this?

	01-06-2003 08:00									#106
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Given how close the reformists have come to rejecting the state. They just need to get some balls, and we aren't helping.

	01-06-2003 08:01									#107
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But what evidence do you have for "absolutely pivotal"? Those are strong words and I want to know what is behind that assertion.

	01-06-2003 08:08									#108
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quote: But what evidence do you have for "absolutely pivotal"? Those are strong words and I want to know what is behind that assertion.

Again, the reformists have been very close to rejecting the state a few times in the past couple years. Since the Mullahs have been able to pile propaganda upon propaganda questioning the legitamacy of the reformists due to our beligerant stance towards Iran, this stance likely is a deciding factor to a large extent. The arguments of the conservatives are pretty much limited to calling the reformists traitors.

	01-06-2003 08:11									#109
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quote: The Shah controlled everything, and the military was on his side.

Really? You do realize that the military defected to the revolution pretty quickly. The really weren't fans of the Shah. A revolution won't kick out the mullahs... another difference is that the mullahs are pretty popular, especially among the older generation who was around in the late 70s.

	01-06-2003 08:13									#110
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Since the Mullahs have been able to pile propaganda upon propaganda questioning the legitamacy of the reformists due to our beligerant stance towards Iran, this stance likely is a deciding factor to a large extent.

How do you know that the propaganda has had its intended impact? Couldn't the deciding factor have been that the conservative's thugs broke up the street demonstrations, like last time, and the reformers didn't have the guts to stand by the street demonstrators and 70% (or whatever) of the population?

The arguments of the conservatives are pretty much limited to calling the reformists traitors.

And how can you judge the kind of impact that this has? And then how can you link that to actions by the US. The mullahs have said a lot of things over the last 23 years.

	01-06-2003 08:19									#111
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quote: Really? You do realize that the military defected to the revolution pretty quickly

Yes, but how antagonistic was the military to the Shah before the revolution actually got going? He had a huge, badass army - a couple hundred thousand IIRC, so everyone figured he'd always stay in power. And then came the revolution.

quote: another difference is that the mullahs are pretty popular, especially among the older generation who was around in the late 70s.

Yet their agenda had decidedly failed by the public barometer - the elected reps - over and over again.

	01-06-2003 08:24									#112
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quote: Yes, but how antagonistic was the military to the Shah before the revolution actually got going? He had a huge, badass army - a couple hundred thousand IIRC, so everyone figured he'd always stay in power. And then came the revolution.

It wasn't as solid as you think it was. There were many religious guys in the military and they were discussion coup right before the Shah got kicked.

quote: Yet their agenda had decidedly failed by the public barometer - the elected reps - over and over again.

You never heard of splitting your vote? Where a Republican might vote Democrat for President so one party doesn't control? The conservatives already have the ultimate control... so give the reformers some power and you won't go too far.

But try and overthrow the mullahs, and there might be problems. I mean, they aren't just political leaders, they are RELIGIOUS leaders! That's an entirely different ballgame. There won't be a revolution against them anytime soon because of the they control the spiritual and the temporal.

	01-06-2003 08:27									#113
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quote: How do you know that the propaganda has had its intended impact?

If you think that the propaganda isn't making the reformists less popular, you've got to be ****ing kidding me. Many people in the US aren't able to see through state-sponsored bullshit; do you think Iranians are immune from the "if you aren't with us, you're against us" factor?

quote: Couldn't the deciding factor have been that the conservative's thugs broke up the street demonstrations, like last time, and the reformers didn't have the guts to stand by the street demonstrators and 70% (or whatever) of the population?

Obviously this is the most important factor. I wouldn't dispute that. But again, given that the reformists were so close to pulling it off, there's no question in my mind that our policy has contributed significantly to their actions.

	01-06-2003 08:30									#114
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If you think that the propaganda isn't making the reformists less popular, you've got to be ****ing kidding me. Many people in the US aren't able to see through state-sponsored bullshit; do you think Iranians are immune from the "if you aren't with us, you're against us" factor?

You are just assuming. What evidence do you have that this is so? As counterevidence, I point out that estimates of about 3 million Iranians have access to satellite dishes and thus non-mullah propaganda. Non-mullah-influenced thought can be had by purchasing an internet card from an ISP.

But again, given that the reformists were so close to pulling it off, there's no question in my mind that our policy has contributed significantly to their actions.

Circular arguments won't help you. What evidence do you have to support this?

	01-06-2003 08:35									#115
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui But try and overthrow the mullahs, and there might be problems. I mean, they aren't just political leaders, they are RELIGIOUS leaders! That's an entirely different ballgame. There won't be a revolution against them anytime soon because of the they control the spiritual and the temporal.

Actually, this is sort of destorthing the basis for Shiite clerical power. Clerics are learned scholars in this system, and a person does not have to follow the injunctions of any one cleric. They get to shop around and decide which Ayatollah is the most learned and thus the one to follow. One of the crtiques of the current Ayatollah in charge (forgot his name) is that he was a low level Cleric chosen for political reasons by Khomeini, instead of the fellow grand Ayatollah, Monetzeri, who was supposed to be the successor before he and Khomeini had a falling out that ended with Montezeri being put under house arrest.

	01-06-2003 08:38									#116
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quote: Originally posted by DanS You are just assuming. What evidence do you have that this is so? As counterevidence, I point out that estimates of about 3 million Iranians have access to satellite dishes and thus non-mullah propaganda. Non-mullah-influenced thought can be had by purchasing an internet card from an ISP.

The porblem is that most Iranians would still want a system in which clerics are part of the gov, if not the heads of it. We are in no position to take any real steps against the Mullahs, so what is the point of endless shouting at them if it does nothing to imporve relations (specially since given our current position, the Iranians could do plenty to make our lives harder in Iraq, and in Afghanistan. After all, if the intel Rummy is ususing to accuse Iran of ties to Al qaeda is as good as his previous Iraq intel, well, (does anything more need to be said?)

	01-06-2003 08:42									#117
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quote: It wasn't as solid as you think it was. There were many religious guys in the military and they were discussion coup right before the Shah got kicked.

Neither is today's Iranian military. After all, the military courts had actually been checking the abuses of the police against the reformists.

quote: You never heard of splitting your vote? Where a Republican might vote Democrat for President so one party doesn't control? The conservatives already have the ultimate control... so give the reformers some power and you won't go too far.

So you're saying that the conservatives actually have the majority, but they're throwing their votes towards the liberals in bulk. I'd be interested in seeing evidence for this...

quote: But try and overthrow the mullahs, and there might be problems. I mean, they aren't just political leaders, they are RELIGIOUS leaders! That's an entirely different ballgame. There won't be a revolution against them anytime soon because of the they control the spiritual and the temporal.

I very much doubt that. This isn't 1979 anymore. The Iranian people have grown more religiously liberal. Hell, things like prostitution have been legalized in Iran.

	01-06-2003 08:45									#118
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The porblem is that most Iranians would still want a system in which clerics are part of the gov, if not the heads of it. We are in no position to take any real steps against the Mullahs, so what is the point of endless shouting at them if it does nothing to imporve relations

How do we know that this is what the Iranians want? Can you reference a poll?

	01-06-2003 08:45									#119
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quote: current Ayatollah in charge (forgot his name)

Khameini

	01-06-2003 08:53									#120
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quote: You are just assuming. What evidence do you have that this is so? As counterevidence, I point out that estimates of about 3 million Iranians have access to satellite dishes and thus non-mullah propaganda. Non-mullah-influenced thought can be had by purchasing an internet card from an ISP.

In a country of 70 million. That's not even 5% of the population. You're saying that religious solidarity and nationalism are both non-existent among the Iranian people?

And what specific evidence are you looking for? Look at any state at any time, and you can predict what happens. I'm not sure what more I can do. It's not like Zogby takes a trip to Iran every year.