24-06-2003 02:43									#91
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that means it´s a chance of 51,2 % of success

	24-06-2003 03:13									#92
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quote: Originally posted by DrSpike You've lost me mate.

You unmasked my weak english. Do you want to say you are stupid and I am a genius?

	24-06-2003 03:17									#93
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Hmm ok, I think I see where you're coming from now, though it wasn't really clear earlier. I assume the way the bonus of extra defensive dips is manifested in the attacking dip's probability being modified in the way you suggest is what you tested?

I am surprised if that is the form for the defensive bonus..........it's not very intuitive, and there are several simpler possibilities that yield results quite close to that formula.

Also Rah suggested that noone has recently opined a defensive bonus to multiple dips.........have we all just forgotten the diplos/spies knowledge thread, or is there a SP/MP difference? It doesn't seem that likely to me in this case.

	24-06-2003 03:28									#94
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quote: I am surprised if that is the form for the defensive bonus..........it's not very intuitive, and there are several simpler possibilities that yield results quite close to that formula.

I remember I tested it lightly (and in SP), so there may be another formula working. But I can't see any simpler possibility. The concept that the attacking dip must go over one defending dip, then the second dip, then the third is perfectly natural for me.

	24-06-2003 03:30									#95
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quote: You've lost me mate.

OK, I think I understand.

	24-06-2003 03:51									#96
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The more I think about it the more your proposed structure does makes sense. After all, 0.8*0.8*0.8 is exactly 1 - (0.2 + 0.2*0.8 + 0.2*0.8*0.8), which was the same methodology I was saying to use regarding multiple offensive dips.

Of course from a practical gameplay point of view one almost never has multiple defensive dips, so that could be why Rah has no recollection of observed bonuses, or people mentioning it for MP.

Last edited by DrSpike on 24-06-2003 at 17:12

	24-06-2003 03:54									#97
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quote: Originally posted by SlowThinker You unmasked my weak english. Do you want to say you are stupid and I am a genius?

That was not what I was going for no.

Your initial statements could have used a little clarification.

	24-06-2003 17:07									#98
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When someone tests it in MP with all humans, and publishes the results, I'll consider it.

	24-06-2003 19:29									#99
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I agree... Remember the "no surprise attack bonus" statements... on how it was "tested"... and that it just didn't exist... And then it was tested in MP mode, and surprise surprise... it did exist

	24-06-2003 20:01									#100
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I agree........however the null (to be accepted or rejected) should be that the calculation works as ST says.

With the surprise attack every MPer knew it existed, because they saw the evidence over many games. With the diplo thing I doubt anyone (even with 1000's of games) has reason to doubt the SP results.

Rah did indicate to Atawa earlier he thought there was no benefit to extra defensive diplos........but unless he says otherwise I'll put that down to the lack of frequency of the phenomenom appearing in games.

Tbh I doubt this will ever get tested for MP unless someone is bored.........it just isn't important enough.

	24-06-2003 20:07									#101
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It will probably be tested the next time people are waiting for the third or fourth person to show up.

While not the most important thing in the world, it would be nice to know for sure.

I know when I've had mulitple diplo's in a city, it never seemed to make any difference at all... but maybe it just wasn't my lucky day

	24-06-2003 20:15									#102
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Agreed that the opportunity doesn't arise very often, but when it does, you seem to remember it.

The most frequent example is when you're preparing the strike force in a city. You'll have the settlers, defensive units, offensive units and multiple dips in case something pops up. You see the enemy diplo approach feeling smug about the 4 dips waiting in the city for the assault and they STILL steal the tech you were hoping that you could attack before they got it. (gun,math,metalurgy, etc)

But still, not that often.
I'd be more interesting in testing the seed not changing on an attempt. That shouldn't be that hard to test.

	24-06-2003 20:27									#103
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quote: Originally posted by rah I'd be more interesting in testing the seed not changing on an attempt. That shouldn't be that hard to test.

Yes this is more use. My prior would be that you were just unlucky, or remembered the times where you were screwed more vividly. But it's an interesting one to know..........and if you do turn up the possibility that the seed can remained unchanged in such a setting, well, that will probably lead to more questions.

	24-06-2003 21:03									#104
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quote: Originally posted by DrSpike and if you do turn up the possibility that the seed can remained unchanged in such a setting, well, that will probably lead to more questions.

Different strats for sure.

	27-06-2003 01:17									#105
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two dips in a city....crap one is enough, two is more than halfway to a caravan.... unless your bored, why bother....

fact is, people are going to steal techs......

	27-06-2003 17:29									#106
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If the percentage for foiling was higher, it might become a viable strat to try to stop it, but at the current percentage, it just isn't worth it.

RAH
hmmm, two dips are 60 shields. That's more than a caravan

	27-06-2003 18:43									#107
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i really need to read more carefully.......... but i think you got the jist of my statement.....1/2 or 10 shields more....either way its too much , especially early in the game

	27-06-2003 19:02									#108
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quote: Originally posted by War4ever i really need to read more carefully..........

Maybe more care typing/thinking.

	27-06-2003 19:30									#109
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i can't keep up with all your double talk and posting..... i looked at the top 10 and you have zoomed past me....

i found that disturbing....

	27-06-2003 19:42									#110
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quote: Originally posted by War4ever i can't keep up with all your double talk and posting..... i looked at the top 10 and you have zoomed past me.... i found that disturbing....

Hehe I think he just didn't want Panag and NYE to overtake him, but overtaking you (probably briefly ) is no doubt also welcome.

Of course he timed his increase in activity with an increase in mod duties, which provides a neat (and moreover partially true) explanation.

Cunning.

	27-06-2003 19:54									#111
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quote: Originally posted by War4ever i can't keep up with all your double talk and posting..... i looked at the top 10 and you have zoomed past me.... i found that disturbing....

So disturbing that you went and did 50 posts.

	27-06-2003 20:39									#112
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it was too hot to do anything but post last night......

	27-06-2003 20:45									#113
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quote: Originally posted by DrSpike Cunning.

A trademark for the Ferrets.

	27-06-2003 21:03									#114
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quote: Originally posted by rah A trademark for the Ferrets.

I'll take that as a tacit confirmation of my theory.

Don't worry......it's safe with me.

	27-06-2003 21:19									#115
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i always thought your TM was backstabbing the guy with Laser

	27-06-2003 22:43									#116
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That too.

RAH
and we confirm no theories.

	27-06-2003 22:47									#117
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quote: Originally posted by rah That too. RAH and we confirm no theories.

Hehe ok. I'm still wondering how long you can be assed keeping up with the posters in question.

	27-06-2003 22:53									#118
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As Long as I have a Job.

	28-06-2003 01:12									#119
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... more like as long as he has access

	28-06-2003 02:16									#120
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Actually, I would say that 99% of my posts are from work.