01-06-2003 01:31									#1
	Stocks up, consumer spending down; Is Bush plan working? Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Stocks up even though consumer spending is down. Here we go supply-siders. Of course you think it will work. We shall see.

	01-06-2003 01:37									#2
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What's the connection between the Economy and stock prices.

	01-06-2003 01:38									#3
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel What's the connection between the Economy and stock prices.

They've predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions.

	01-06-2003 01:40									#4
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel What's the connection between the Economy and stock prices.

A bust could cause a recession but so could a boom.

	01-06-2003 01:51									#5
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Usually the rule is: consumer spending up, corporate sales up, profits up, stock prices up.

The divergence in consumer spending and stock prices doesn't show that supply-side economics is working. Rather, it's a reflection of the reduced taxation on dividends, which makes stock-ownership more attactive. The rich, rather than investing in bonds, real estate, commodities, etc., are now directing their investments to stock ownership, and the resulting increase demand for stocks is driving up their prices.

The fact that consumer spending is reflective of a lessening of the standard of living for average Americans.

Thus, insofar as supply-side economics is designed to increase the wealth of the wealthy, it is succeeding. Insofor as it is designed to increase the wealth of all Americans, it is failing.

	01-06-2003 01:58									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Zkribbler Thus, insofar as supply-side economics is designed to increase the wealth of the wealthy, it is succeeding. Insofor as it is designed to increase the wealth of all Americans, it is failing.

I don't think Dubbya made an even half sincere attempt to suggest his policies were anything but a gift to the rich. Therefore he has succeeded. I suspect his next term will sink the US economy completely, Iraqi oil revenue or not !

	01-06-2003 02:03									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Uncle Sparky I don't think Dubbya made an even half sincere attempt to suggest his policies were anything but a gift to the rich. Therefore he has succeeded. I suspect his next term will sink the US economy completely, Iraqi oil revenue or not !

Oh man. Maybe he just wanted to stop talking about the war because of the looting and all, but he wouldn't shut up about how many jobs it was going to create.

	01-06-2003 02:05									#8
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*Adding "Jobs" to the list of US reasons to go to war with Iraq*

	01-06-2003 02:10									#9
	Re: Stocks up, consumer spending down; Is Bush plan working? Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious Stocks up even though consumer spending is down. Here we go supply-siders. Of course you think it will work. We shall see.

I like simpler explanations. The speculative bubble in oil and gas futures that was driven by the mess in Venezuela and Iraq has popped, and a lot of the stock selloff from the market peak to the present was a result of overreaction. When you had the oil and gas bubble issues, you also had a crisis of confidence with Enron, Adelphia, Worldcom, GE, etc. playing games, and a CPA industry whore running the SEC. A lack of new scandals breaking has calmed down the institutional types, who can now tell themselves that stuff was all an anomaly, not standard practice in corporate America.

I don't see anything fundamental at all, just a reassessment that things weren't quite as bad as the initial hysteria indicated.

	01-06-2003 02:11									#10
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Last I heard consumer confidence was up.. not down.. 91.6 from what I read in the newspaper today. And also industrial production growth has shown surprising increases.

	01-06-2003 02:17									#11
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Consumer spending, not confidence. That is what kidicious pointed out. Look at the April numbers for consumer spending. Factories orders were up form the month before, but IIRC, there was a drop in durable goods orders not to far ago.

	01-06-2003 02:17									#12
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Industrial growth isn't that surprising - a lot of people made decisions to defer stuff until they saw how the economy and the markets were going to play out, so it isn't like things were cancelled and shutdown, and now there's a new surge of growth - it's catch up from a "wait and see" period.

My consulting clients have a bunch of new energy projects that got delayed, for one example - with the NYMEX prices for natural gas, they would have really gotten skinned, and had a lot of pressure from gutless financial weenies to lock in those atrocious Chicken Little prices on long term contracts, so they just shelved a lot of orders without killing them outright. All in all, my clients alone accounted for six to nine months delay in ordering about $60 million in large ticket durable goods and another $150 million or so in construction contracts and small ticket durable goods. And that's a small drop in the bucket.

	01-06-2003 02:18									#13
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Consumer spending, not confidence. That is what kidicious pointed out. Look at the April numbers for consumer spending. Factories orders were up form the month before, but IIRC, there was a drop in durable goods orders not to far ago.

So let me guess.. you leftists will blame this on Bush?

The signs are there, and I believe the recovery will be here in the 4th quarter.

	01-06-2003 02:19									#14
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Stock prices are up, therefore his plan is working. It'd be nice if his plan included ordinary people, but it seems we just can't afford to buy some tax cuts for ourselves.

	01-06-2003 02:19									#15
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Most of supply-side economics is an excuse for tax cuts for the rich.

	01-06-2003 02:21									#16
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The effects of the lower consumer spending in the US presently could be argued about - but I'd say that it's a good sign, considering the state of deficits and debts of US goverment.

Am I right, you people of Apolyton who know more about economics than me?

	01-06-2003 02:25									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Fez The signs are there, and I believe the recovery will be here in the 4th quarter.

Keep dreaming, the economy won't improve until the states get more federal money, the current situation sucks because the State Governments are to spineless to raise taxes. (Our Republican Governer is an example of this, cutting education spending instead of raising taxes, what a MORON).

	01-06-2003 02:27									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Odin Keep dreaming, the economy won't improve until the states get more federal money, the current situation sucks because the State Governments are to spineless to raise taxes. (Our Republican Governer is an example of this, cutting education spending instead of raising taxes, what a MORON).

'says the socialist.

What is your plan? Nationalize everything?

You keep dreaming.

	01-06-2003 03:08									#19
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Very few of the Bush tax cuts have been supply-side. Mostly, they've been demand side.

	01-06-2003 03:22									#20
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Very few of the Bush tax cuts have been supply-side. Mostly, they've been demand side.

I guess that's why everyone is jumping into the stock market then. Oh, I see. Demand-side to you means demand more stocks. Dan, if they are demand-sided cuts why are all of Bush's economists supply-siders.

The plan is suppose to increase savings. The savings are suppose to be spent in the stock market and on business, and this is suppose to create jobs. You see a new boom in the stock market which everyone anticipates. We will have to see about the business spending, but I don't think it will increase much until consumers start spending. Even if business spending increases consumer spending won't necessarily follow. If it doesn't we get a recession.

MtG has a point about the higher business and consumer confidence and that might save us and Bush.

	01-06-2003 03:32									#21
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Dan, if they are demand-sided cuts why are all of Bush's economists supply-siders.

Maybe they aren't all supply-siders. Because most of these are not supply side cuts.

	01-06-2003 03:54									#22
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quote: Very few of the Bush tax cuts have been supply-side. Mostly, they've been demand side.

Riiiiiight. hahaha. Cutting taxes to increase revenue is supply side. Cutting taxes to increase jobs is supply side. Where is the demand side? Oh thats right. No-where.

	01-06-2003 03:56									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia Riiiiiight. hahaha. Cutting taxes to increase revenue is supply side. Cutting taxes to increase jobs is supply side. Where is the demand side? Oh thats right. No-where.

So lets increase taxes. Send the demand down even further.

	01-06-2003 03:59									#24
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Cutting taxes to increase revenue is supply side. Cutting taxes to increase jobs is supply side.

Revenue/jobs has nothing to do with this distinction.

	01-06-2003 04:12									#25
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Tax cuts to the rich are supply-side, targeted tax cuts to working-class people are demand side. raising taxes on wealthy people doesn't reduce consumer spending, rich people are the money hounds that can't spend thier money.

	01-06-2003 04:19									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Odin Tax cuts to the rich are supply-side, targeted tax cuts to working-class people are demand side. raising taxes on wealthy people doesn't reduce consumer spending, rich people are the money hounds that can't spend thier money.

Really? Targeted tax cuts to working-class people stimulate demand? Since when? These people don't have the spending power to make that much of an impact. Rather the tax cuts must be directed to the middle and upper classes where it is best needed.

If they don't spend their money, they give it to charity. That is why I dislike people who have a problem with Bill Gates.

	01-06-2003 04:26									#27
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quote: Targeted tax cuts to working-class people stimulate demand? Since when? These people don't have the spending power to make that much of an impact.

If goverment provides, let's say, $100 to the poor via tax cuts, they don't spend it, because they don't have enough spending power?

	01-06-2003 04:28									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Tuomerehu If goverment provides, let's say, $100 to the poor via tax cuts, they don't spend it, because they don't have enough spending power?

$100 for the poor wouldn't be as impactful as say a $1000 break for the middle class. Simple economics. Both make an impact, but the $1000 is much greater.

	01-06-2003 04:34									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Fez $100 for the poor wouldn't be as impactful as say a $1000 break for the middle class. Simple economics. Both make an impact, but the $1000 is much greater.

You could be one of Bush's economic advisors.

	01-06-2003 04:36									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious You could be one of Bush's economic advisors.

Thanks for the compliment.