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DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 07-10-2003 09:27 Visit DanS's homepage!
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#181 Report this post to a moderator
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Well, OK. Let's deal with the revenue growth. Dell has managed to healthily increase both its nominal sales and market share in a downturn in a very competitive market . If somebody described just those elements to me (without mentioning the industry), I would immediately say that the company has a lower cost structure and is lowering prices in the face of the downturn.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 07-10-2003 09:32
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Perhaps I haven't framed these questions well at all.


After you've been to MBA school, you'll do better.

DAVOUT is offline DAVOUT
King
AUERSTADT
Jun 2002
time: 05:30
  Old Post 07-10-2003 17:41
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The marketing and selling expenses of Dell are certainly much more flexible than those of the competition (salesmen, wholesellers, retailers); as you know, in the selling by mail, you know precisely the yield of any offer through ad or mail; this makes possible, during a downturn, to reduce very selectively (and quickly) your expenses in cancelling the less profitable offers, whereas the competition has to decide how to downsize the sales organization which takes time and hurts the sales. During the same difficult period, the competitors had to liquidate the excess inventory of end products and obsolete parts.

DAVOUT is offline DAVOUT
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AUERSTADT
Jun 2002
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  Old Post 07-10-2003 18:55
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quote:
Originally posted by Japher


Question on comparing companies debt: are those debts measured on an even scale? What I mean is these companies from different nations have different governments in which to deal with. Some of them can't sink their debt through depreciation of assets such as land and equipment, since in some of these places the company doesn't own the land or the buildings... Also, when looking at Japan they do a lot of buisness with places like China (or at least have more companies that do) who doesn't float their currency, which could result in losses unless they hedge the yen against it, possibly resulting in debt. So, what I mean are all these international factors calculated into these debt ratios so that these comparisons can be made on even ground?


At year end, the general rule is that all asset or liability items the nominal of which is in foreign currency must be valued at the rate of the market. This risk exists for all companies exporting or importing in foreign currencies, even if the said currencies float, and should be hedge unless the company intends to speculate. As a balance sheet is established in one currency, and one only, and is supposed to be a picture of the company at one specific instant (year end), we can say that the scale is even for all public companies.

Incidently, as the trade between China and Japan is mostly made in yens, and possibly partly in US$, it would require only a hedge of the $ portion, which in any case would result in a P&L entry and not in a debt.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 09-10-2003 00:04 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Here's an article about Dell trying to make it into new markets, especially consumer electronics. Some of the market share numbers were a revelation to me (32% of the US PC market), although perhaps it shouldn't have been.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...p=1012571727088

Consumer electronics seems like a trickier business to me, with strong competitors and brand names like Sony (9 inventory turns/year). But it's tough to argue against a company when they have managed so far to execute their business plans so well. I agree that consumer electronics is becoming increasingly standardized, so maybe they can replicate their model in select markets.

One anecdotal thing to note is that my Dell branded LCD monitor sat in somebody's inventory for over a month. Manufactured in July '03 in Mexico. On my desk in September.

Last edited by DanS on 09-10-2003 at 00:21

pchang is offline pchang
King
Cupertino?
Aug 1999
time: 05:30
  Old Post 09-10-2003 00:26
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Things like plasma tv's and the like seem to be a logical extension of PCs. I think more and more people will be willing to buy such things on-line or over the phone. Not much different than the home shopping channel and its ilk.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
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  Old Post 09-10-2003 03:20 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Complicated. You have to go market by market.

I think the technology for plasma is Japanese/Korean/European conglomerate-owned, but let me check on that. I'm guessing these conglomerates don't OEM their parts and that's why Dell doesn't have its own plasma brand.

Compare to DLP display devices, such as video projectors (office and some minor home use) and high definition TVs (home use), where Texas Instruments freely OEMs its parts. Dell has its own brand of video projectors, but not yet TVs. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dell brand its own DLP TV. There could be sales there.

TCO is offline TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 09-10-2003 04:35
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It would be interesting if they could make a play in stereos. Particularly in entire systems. There is some similarity between a multicomponent stereo and a PC. Maybe people could even start combining them in a box (to order) the way PCs are an amalgam of moniter and processer and RAM and video card.

TCO is offline TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 09-10-2003 04:36
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I know a little bit about their corp strategy stuff from the grapevine, but I should stay silent.

pchang is offline pchang
King
Cupertino?
Aug 1999
time: 05:30
  Old Post 09-10-2003 04:51
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Gateway Increase the size of your Attachments

Gateway are selling plasma tvs.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 09-10-2003 05:35 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Hmmm... Maybe it's less exclusive technology than I thought. Thanks for mentioning that.

GP: Re stereo receivers, yes that's a product that is modular. Have you ever opened one up to take a look inside?

Re a PC as a receiver, there are already people out there doing that. I could build you a very high quality one for about $600 with parts off the shelf in an evening's time. The only thing that would need to be custom for the likes of Dell are the amplifiers (basically all of the non-digital parts). As it stands now, a do-it-yourselfer has to have a separate amp for each channel of audio. Quite doable, but still a mess.

Last edited by DanS on 09-10-2003 at 05:42

Wraith is offline Wraith
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Austin, Texas, USA
Aug 1999
time: 23:30
  Old Post 09-10-2003 05:55
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Well, I work for Dell, and I've got some information about all this you'd probably be interested in. Unfortunately, I'm going to have to check and see just how much of it I can talk about ^_^ Maybe I'll have something for y'all this weekend.

Wraith
Everybody talks about reality, but nobody does anything about it

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 09-10-2003 06:02
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I'm telling the SEC!!!!

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 11-10-2003 09:28 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Some good news. The federal deficit came in at $374 billion in FY '03, when we were all expecting a deficit of over $400 billion. Not bad for a fiscal year in which 325,000 troops were put in theater and 150,000 fought a war.

Spending came in at 20.3% of GDP, which is about the midpoint of the very stable spending range since WWII (not including the first Reagan administration, which was an anomaly to the high side). Taxation was pretty low.

Here is a good article laying out all of the top-level details.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2003Oct10.html

All in all, if this holds up, and they keep spending increases to 4 or 5%, then I would say that this has been a very successful fiscal policy response to economic conditions by the Bush administration. It was a little scary going through it, though.

I'm guessing that there will still be some negative politics associated with it for the next half year or so. The mood in the article seems to indicate this.

Last edited by DanS on 11-10-2003 at 09:54

Kidicious is offline Kidicious
Settler
Diety of Kidiverse
Mar 2003
time: 21:30
  Old Post 13-10-2003 20:57 Visit Kidicious's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Some good news. The federal deficit came in at $374 billion in FY '03, when we were all expecting a deficit of over $400 billion. Not bad for a fiscal year in which 325,000 troops were put in theater and 150,000 fought a war.


It stimulated the economy a bit. Don't forget that Snow predicted that the tax cuts would create so much economic growth that revenues would increase. I think he missed the mark more than anyone.

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 17-10-2003 02:02 Visit DanS's homepage!
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ef: Further to our discussion in another thread about IMF's numbers, in September, the IMF estimated that this year's GDP growth was going to be ~ 2.6%. But I can't imagine it being that low. Q2 annualized real growth was 3.3%. Q3 might turn out to have been a real blockbuster--6% annualized, maybe higher.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
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  Old Post 27-10-2003 06:42 Visit DanS's homepage!
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If any are interested, I started a blog as a way to organize my thoughts. A lot like this thread, and includes spreadsheets, graphs, etc. The service that I use has a nice upload feature, and you can categorize posts.

Carried Away

Saras is offline Saras
King
Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:30
  Old Post 30-10-2003 19:57
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7.2% GDP growth? WTF???

DanS is offline DanS
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  Old Post 30-10-2003 19:58 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Yeh, B-A-B-Y!!!

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:30
  Old Post 30-10-2003 20:17
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Well if you throw ultra-low interest rates, a liquidity surge, a housing bubble and a couple hundred billion in fiscal stimulus at the economy, it's enough to make an old elephant dance. The question is, for how long... everything is now tied to the debt game.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 30-10-2003 21:45 Visit DanS's homepage!
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This elephant is dancing while the dancing's good!

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:30
  Old Post 30-10-2003 23:44
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And enjoy the ensuing heart attack.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 03-11-2003 22:31 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Hmmm... I guess pretty phenomenal productivity growth is going to follow from this. WaPo has the market expecting 8.5% and the briefing forecast at 9.5%. Haven't seen Q/Q non-farm business 9.5% since 1973. Not in my lifetime.

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
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  Old Post 03-11-2003 22:46
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Just shows you you can take those numbers to the dump.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 03-11-2003 23:16 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Hey, wouldn't you give your left nut for numbers like that?

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:30
  Old Post 03-11-2003 23:21
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No, I'd just hire a hopelessly incompetent central banker and an AA accountant.

Kidicious is offline Kidicious
Settler
Diety of Kidiverse
Mar 2003
time: 21:30
  Old Post 03-11-2003 23:33 Visit Kidicious's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by HershOstropoler
Well if you throw ultra-low interest rates, a liquidity surge, a housing bubble and a couple hundred billion in fiscal stimulus at the economy, it's enough to make an old elephant dance. The question is, for how long... everything is now tied to the debt game.


Since the debt is still increasing I'm starting to agree with you, but I'm still winning our bet. The EU won't do any better than us.

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:30
  Old Post 03-11-2003 23:48
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What was our bet?

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:30
  Old Post 04-11-2003 03:05
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Hmmm... I guess pretty phenomenal productivity growth is going to follow from this. WaPo has the market expecting 8.5% and the briefing forecast at 9.5%. Haven't seen Q/Q non-farm business 9.5% since 1973. Not in my lifetime.


Funny, I always thought you were older than me

Well, as non-farm business GDP rose by 8.5% Q/Q then that implies static or falling total hours.

This recession has been very different from previous ones, with productivity roaring ahead but total hours falling far furthur and for longer than before.

Taking the non-farm business sector and comparing across the last 5 cycles to this point (3 3/4 years from peak)

Total Output:
Q3 1969 peak: +17.4%
Q2 1973 peak: +5.2%
Q1 1980 peak: +5.3%
Q1 1990 peak: +5.5%
Q1 2000 peak: +8.0%

Productivity:
Q3 1969 peak: +13.3%
Q2 1973 peak: +4.7%
Q1 1980 peak: +5.7%
Q1 1990 peak: +5.6%
Q1 2000 peak: +14.7%

Hours worked:
Q3 1969 peak: +3.6%
Q2 1973 peak: +0.4%
Q1 1980 peak: -0.4%
Q1 1990 peak: -0.1%
Q1 2000 peak: -5.9%

Actually if you look at the the 5 years to Q3 2003 then productivity has increased faster (3.6% at an annual rate) than at any time since the early 1960's (which were themselves unusual as the average for 1947-2003 is 2.1%) but total hours worked has shown the worst performance on record (-0.6% at an annual rate, compared to an average of 1.5%).

I'll say it again, high productivity growth and a lackluster labour market - welcome america to the european economy of 1973-96

Last edited by el freako on 06-11-2003 at 22:19

Kidicious is offline Kidicious
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  Old Post 05-11-2003 07:25 Visit Kidicious's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by HershOstropoler
What was our bet?


Whether the US or the EU would have a better growth rate between 2003 and 2006.

 
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