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Apolyton Civilization Forums : Powered by vBulletin version 2.0.3 Apolyton Civilization Forums > Miscellaneous > Archive > Off-Topic-Archive > GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 14
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TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 04:08
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quote:
Originally posted by el freako
Even your example of gold trading is not a perfect market, arbitrage opportunities exist - otherwise there would be few speculative traders in the market, which is not the case.


How big are the arbitrage opportunities in gold, pounds and euros? The market does all it can to eliminate an arbitrage opportunity here. That there are people driving the arbitrage towards zero is not surprising. But seriously, how much arbitrage is really there?

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 04:32
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Look dude, obviously transport prices, differences in local production costs, differing tastes, etc. will drive different prices for the same good in different regions. If we had matter transporters, those prices would equalize. Same thing with ****s if the whores had magical brooms. of course, they don't and of course the price is different. Yet we do have a matter transporter for dollars and euros. They are freely traded with the punch of a button. So if a **** in France costs 100 Euros. And a **** in the US costs $200 and a Euro is worth $1.2, then the French **** is worth $120. It's just too easy to get laid there. Like ice in the arctic. Now, you have to add volume in there as well (I heard those Frogs are real bunnies)...and you've got the total production value of ****s in each country.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 04:39
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There may even be some use in the whole PPP thing...but I still enjoy shoving some micro up a macro persons azz. Plus the wuren talk has got me...sad.

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 04:40
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The point is that it is there at all, if there are abitrage opportunities then the market is imperfect.

If the market is imperfect you will not get the relative-price equalizing effect that you seem to be expecting (but which almost never happens in reality).

If the market is imperfect even in the forex and gold markets, both with massive liquidity and ease of trading then how the hell can it be perfect everywhere? (which would be true if your assumptions follow thorough logically).


You argument about ice in the Arctic and Sahara is ludicrous

For ice to continue to exist in the sahara requires refrigeration so in the sahara you are buying ice and the refrigeration costs - your attempt to claim that the two are the same is absurd.
The two cost a different amount because they are different products - and in PPP valuations they would be counted as such.


wuren talk?

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 04:46
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quote:
Originally posted by el freako
The point is that it is there at all, if there are abitrage opportunities then the market is imperfect.

If the market is imperfect you will not get the relative-price equalizing effect that you seem to be expecting (but which almost never happens in reality).

If the market is imperfect even in the forex and gold markets, both with massive liquidity and ease of trading then how the hell can it be perfect everywhere? (which would be true if your assumptions follow thorough logically).


You argument about ice in the Arctic and Sahara is ludicrous

For ice to continue to exist in the sahara requires refrigeration so in the sahara you are buying ice and the refrigeration costs - your attempt to claim that the two are the same is absurd.
The two cost a different amount because they are different products - and in PPP valuations they would be counted as such.


A servant in the US and a servant in Mexico are different things also. You have to pay for that person sneaking accross the border. Same thing with ****s, you have to pay for the greater difficulty in corrupting an American girl.

I don't have to prove the market is "perfect". You have to prove why we should us an artificial construction. And you never answered my question on the size of gold arbitrage opportunities. Look at some data. It is well under a percent, big guy. So, given that you are worried about things in the region of a percent, that is good enough for me.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 04:52
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quote:
Originally posted by el freako

You argument about ice in the Arctic and Sahara is ludicrous


It's cool...

quote:
For ice to continue to exist in the sahara requires refrigeration so in the sahara you are buying ice and the refrigeration costs - your attempt to claim that the two are the same is absurd.
The two cost a different amount because they are different products - and in PPP valuations they would be counted as such.


Well...are you absolutely sure that your PPP model contains that ice correction factor? See, I don't need to bother with such central planning silliness if I just rely on the market price.


quote:
wuren talk?


When you're older, Uncle Roland will have a "talk" with you.

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:08
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Nice attempt to twist my words there - shame it was so lame.

So gold varies by under a percent, even something as homogenous as a Mig Mac can vary by as much as 100% to 200% when converted into a common currency - so, no it's not differences of under 1% i'm worried about it differences of 2 or 3 fold

And if the arbitrage opportunities on gold are that big then imagine how much bigger they are in much more illiquid markets.


You asked why we should use an artificial construction, well here is why:

Forex rates can change by 20% to 30% in a year, how does this relate to the underlying economy - answer almost not at all.

The dollar has fallen against the euro and yen recently, but are americans poorer - only if they spend all their money in euro's or yen, which they don't (except for a small smattering of expats) - some of the fall will feed through into higher import prices but they will affect only a small percentage of good/services whereas if you use the x-rate for comparing between economies will affect the whole income calculation.

With the x-rate jumping around like that you are going to have no idea what the relative positions of the economies are, when exchange rates were fixed under the bretton woods system there was less need for PPPs than there is now that we live under a floating system.

Maybe you should ask yourself why all the professionals use PPPs to compare the relative positions of economies - it is because it gives a truer picture than x-rates does.

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:10
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quote:
Originally posted by TCO
When you're older, Uncle Roland will have a "talk" with you.


How much older do I have to be? I'm 34 now

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:12
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Get a sense of humor, dude.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:13
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My points on arbitrage stand. A movie costs more in Manhattan so it is worth more.

Kidicious is offline Kidicious
Settler
Diety of Kidiverse
Mar 2003
time: 21:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:20 Visit Kidicious's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by The Mad Monk
So, all it requires is for us to think happy thoughts and we're there?


Only if it were possible to believe that we were truly happy. It's not so easy when money is on the line.

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:25
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quote:
Originally posted by TCO
Get a sense of humor, dude.


Sorry, that was an attempt at humor.

We are obviously incompatible humorists

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:25
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Was anything useful just posted? I don't want to look.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:27
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quote:
Originally posted by el freako


Sorry, that was an attempt at humor.

We are obviously incompatible humorists


That was better. I was worried that you were like Mr. Fun or something.

Kidicious is offline Kidicious
Settler
Diety of Kidiverse
Mar 2003
time: 21:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:27 Visit Kidicious's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by TCO
A movie costs more in Manhattan so it is worth more.


Worth is subjective. Normally it's measured as how much someone is willing to pay for something, and it's different with each individual. Price or cost has nothing to do with it.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 05:30
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Freako, please kill it for me.

The Vagabond is offline The Vagabond
Chieftain
of realpolitik and counterpropaganda
Jan 1970
time: 05:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 06:21
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I thought that the following picture, originally posted by Q Cubed
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...&threadid=97767
would be rather relevant for this thread. The inscription says "Journal about how money is made".

Attachment: money.jpg
This has been downloaded 34 time(s).

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 09:25 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Sorry to keep jumping around on topics, but I found this FT article interesting about regulating drug prices and how the American consumer is getting shafted by all of these central planning types in Europe and Canada.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...p=1012571727088

Overall, I agree with the head of the FDA. Many European countries are joined in a pact of freeloaders. However, I don't think the answer is for the US to emulate these central planners. Otherwise, everybody would have fewer good new drugs. It makes sense that the drug companies would want to be most involved and spend most of their R&D money in their overwhelmingly biggest market, but I wonder how far that goes.

Last edited by DanS on 26-09-2003 at 09:38

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 11:58
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quote:
Originally posted by TCO
So if a **** in France costs 100 Euros. And a **** in the US costs $200 and a Euro is worth $1.2, then the French **** is worth $120. It's just too easy to get laid there. Like ice in the arctic.


That just means a **** is more expensive in the US due to structural rigidities.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 12:01 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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****

Saras is offline Saras
King
Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 12:38
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Structural rigidities

HershOstropoler is offline HershOstropoler
Settler

Nov 2002
time: 06:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 12:45
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You like puritanism, or what? Pervert.

Ecthy is offline Ecthy
Emperor
Zhonghuà Rénmín Gònghéguó
Mar 2000
time: 06:30
  Old Post 26-09-2003 13:06
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quote:
Originally posted by Ted Striker
****


I second this.

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
Question  Old Post 28-09-2003 23:58 Visit DanS's homepage!
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I have a meandering multi-disciplinary question. Please correct anything you see that doesn't make sense as well as answering the questions (as I'm just using common sense assumptions about how some of this stuff works).

I was stunned to hear Michael Dell say that Dell has an inventory ratio of over 100. Its financials indicate that Dell has been able to double its inventory ratio in the last 5 years. Stockpoint says that the S&P average is around 10, which seems about right--you sell out your inventory every month or so on average. People pay their rent every month, etc. Anyway, Michael Dell's point was that the rise of the information age was less important from a retail perspective (for instance, ordering something on the web) than from a business process perspective (more efficiently getting the product to the shelves).

By comparison, Wal-Mart has an inventory ratio of 7.5 or so. Kroger, the biggest US supermarketeer, has an inventory ratio of 9 or so. Now I was led to believe that the supermarketeer had low margins, but made their money by turning over their inventory quickly and having high volumes. But doesn't this indicate that Dell is woefully out-supermarketing the supermarketeers? Also, as a basic matter, doesn't this result in Dell using its capital most effectively? I don't know of a company with a higher inventory ratio (although I'm guess at least one exists). How does this effectiveness show up in the marketplace? Is it just that Dell has lower capital costs? How do we quantify the advantage this gives Dell over its competitors?

Now another part of this question. In macroeconomic terms, I think the equation is something like money supply x velocity = economic output. If the Dells of the world increase their inventory ratios, then that increases the economy's velocity. Money supply has been fairly easy in this recession, but as happens in all recessions, velocity decreases. Put simply, if the Dells of the world are able to increase their inventory ratios very healthily from boom time throughout a recession, wouldn't that indicate that the economy could move to the upside an awful lot, once the velocity in other parts of the economy pick back up?

Also, since the inventory ratio impacts the efficitiveness of the use of capital, wouldn't that impact capital productivity rather than labor productivity? If this is so, then wouldn't that indicate that once the speculative bubble of the late 90s wears off, the economy is on track for much higher capital productivity? Lastly, wouldn't the rise of the information age impact capital productivity to a higher degree than labor productivity.

As I discussed some time ago, the information age seems to have come only recently to US manufacturing. For instance, my brother-in-law who is a machinest at a Meritor truck axel plant keeps b&m-ing to me about how the new inventory control system they have sometimes stops the line because they don't have 50 cent bolts in stock. As an aside, ArvinMeritor has increased its inventory ratio from 9 to 13.5 in the last 5 years.

Last edited by DanS on 29-09-2003 at 00:20

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 29-09-2003 00:09
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You have a lot of different points, here. With respect to the supermarkets, they make a lot of money on accounts payable/receiveable difference. They get 90 day payment terms for their debts but require 30 days for their suppliers.

Wrt inventory, I believe you are talking inventory "turns". I just want to make sure what we are talking about. There is working capital other than inventory. Something to watch for, when you start looking at ratios. I would watch the definitions, especially if it is a news article. Can easily be talking apples and oranges.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 29-09-2003 00:11
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quote:
Originally posted by TCO
You have a lot of different points, here. With respect to the supermarkets, they make a lot of money on accounts payable/receiveable difference. They get 60 day payment terms for their debts but require rapid payment for their customers.

Wrt inventory, I believe you are talking inventory "turns". I just want to make sure what we are talking about. There is working capital other than inventory. Something to watch for, when you start looking at ratios. I would watch the definitions, especially if it is a news article. Can easily be talking apples and oranges.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 29-09-2003 00:16
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I hate it when I quote instead of edit.

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 29-09-2003 00:23 Visit DanS's homepage!
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I'm DanSing you liberally, but yes I'm talking about the yearly inventory ratio (how many inventory turns over a period in question). COGS/Inventory. Calculated using a calculator based upon Stockpoint numbers, not any article.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 29-09-2003 00:29
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Well everyone says they have a great setup but still a turn every 3 days seems unbeleiveable. Still wonder if there is some issue with the numbers. Maybe they do a lot of contract manufacturing and so a lot of the inventory is not listed as theirs? Still 3 days sounds fishy. Would think that you have to take credit fro it during delivery and that would average 3 days on its own (or more).

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:30
  Old Post 29-09-2003 00:30
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Do they sell any services that might show up in COGS but not inventory?

 
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