13-08-2003 10:30									#1
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Okay, we've basically hit the point where we can see everything with our Galleys... nothing but ocean.

Mongoose has commented to me in chat about how there IS ocean all around us seperating the two continents, however he also said that there are many points where 1-turn suicide Galleys could make it across.

So we come to the point where we must decide what to do. Send one or both Galleys off into the Blue Beyond or not.

I feel that we should send the PoA off west of the coast furthest to the west we can see. We may or may not find anything, but I feel that is our best option at this point.

If we don't do that, then the soonest we could get back to try again is another 40+ turns (20 to get home, 20 to get back again). In 40 turns the world will look much different. GCA will be gone. Grenouille may be gone. GWT and CGN will be even more powerful.

Galleys have a 50% chance of sinking in ocean and sea tiles. Mongoose has said there are multiple 1-turn crossings (whether or not you believe him this is probably true either way), and even if our Galley does sink we have a good chance of seeing the other side if we do pick a good spot to jump over so we can send further attempts in the same area if we have some degree of success.

The Galleys will be next to useless for the war. 2 Galleys, SPLIT UP don't generate much fear, and their actual punch is obviously very weak. It will take 17 or more turns to even get back to home, and the effects they can have are very limited as it is. Chances are that we'll already be well into our offensive and they will either 1) be too-little, too-late, or 2) we'll be winning so they won't affect things anyways.

Everyone put your opinion in on this issue, it's very important.

Let the bloodbath begin.

	13-08-2003 10:38									#2
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First thing I want to say:

Mongoose should not play a factor in our decisions. So we will ignore his "insight" into this issue.

If we're going to risk the galleys, we must know that they might not be succesful and accept that fact. Not much else we can do except pray to the RNG gods for the best possible outcome.

I think we should at least send PoA westward. The other galley is closer to home and can explore the empty tiles up north, and then be used for whatever purposes we want.

But PoA is already near the westernmost point of our exploration. It seems like a "waste" to bring it all the way back, only to possibly send it BACK west later. That is wasted time traversing.

Bottom line: The potential benefits of being the first to contact the other civs GREATLY outways any consequences of losing a galley AND a 30 shield swordsman.

	13-08-2003 10:42									#3
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Firing galleys off into the ocean in blindness is lunacy.

Especially when the Expedition is now 9 to the choke point. That is before DDay

PoA is now 16 or 17 to the choke point, after going to the South island again.

Both of these assets can be used against GCA, and boats to flank can be a great asset.

If we could see sea on the other side, I would say go for it, but launching the lemmings out blindly into the ocean when they have a use is something I cannot agree with.

btw, Mongoose has already lied about the map, how can we know he told Trip the truth?

	13-08-2003 10:50									#4
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither PoA is now 16 or 17 to the choke point, after going to the South island again.

And it's another 5 from the Chokepoint to BoP. I don't think that one Galley with one regular Sword will have much impact in 23 turns, especially with an ETA on the war of ~13 or 14 turns, especially considering that we hope to hit them hard and fast and not slug it out for 40 turns... I expect that we'll be at the gates of Catchopolis in 10 turns.

The main factor of this debate revolves around how those shields can best be used. Sending them west is a risk, but being able to use a single Galley 10 turns into the war is completely insignificant. If we pick good spot, then that's a 50% chance of making contact with the other continent.

NYE, you said yourself we can be at the gates of Catchopolis in 6 turns if everything goes as hoped. What impact will 1 Galley have if we do achieve that sort of success, or are even delayed 4 turns? Do you think they'll pay much mind to an extra Galley near BoP when we have 25 units next to their capital?

	13-08-2003 10:53									#5
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Glad you are so sure how the war will go. I am not, and I cannot see throwing away an asset on blind thrusting into ocean only to find more ocean.

	13-08-2003 10:57									#6
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Firing galleys off into the ocean in blindness is lunacy.

I completely disagree. We'll probably do it eventually anyway, after their potential use in the war with GCA then. And what if we find nothing up north? Would it still be considered lunacy?

We're going to have to face it. We need to take a risk, that's how things get done. Exploration is all about taking risks. Look at Columbus and his crew? They risked it all trying to find a new route to India. In their case, they were succesful. There are many who aren't, but I think it's a calculated cost that we will have to face.

quote: PoA is now 16 or 17 to the choke point, after going to the South island again. Both of these assets can be used against GCA, and boats to flank can be a great asset.

I think Expedition will be a much greater asset, since it is closer to home. I would concede allowing that ship to be used for whatever purpose, but I think PoA should continue it's path of glory and search for the great unknown. It will be our own Santa Maria (hopefully). If we do not commit to at least some exploring, then when will be get to it?

Some propose Astronomy and Navigation? That is upwards of 100 turns away. Do we want to hold off the benefits of contacting another civ for at least 100 turns?

When is the soonest you would commit the PoA and Expedition returning to exploring duties? After GCA war? After CFC war? You can always justify that you will need the galleys for something. It would almost be quicker to build new galleys :P

PoA is now 16 or 17 to the choke point, after going to the South island again.

Both of these assets can be used against GCA, and boats to flank can be a great asset.

quote: If we could see sea on the other side, I would say go for it, but launching the lemmings out blindly into the ocean when they have a use is something I cannot agree with.

Again, it's a risk. How much of a gambler are you? If we lose, then we get another 2 free units of support backhome :P

quote: btw, Mongoose has already lied about the map, how can we know he told Trip the truth?

Please leave mongoose out of this, whatever he says should have no bearing on what we want to explore and whether we should explore at all.

On this note, I leave you with a quote by John F. Kennedy:
"We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not only because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too."

(Yes, putting a quote in my argument shows how serious this is to me :P)

	13-08-2003 10:58									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Trip NYE, you said yourself we can be at the gates of Catchopolis in 6 turns if everything goes as hoped. What impact will 1 Galley have if we do achieve that sort of success, or are even delayed 4 turns? Do you think they'll pay much mind to an extra Galley near BoP when we have 25 units next to their capital?

That is 6 turns of advance, not 6 turns from the start of the war, unless you think we can just cruise through a civ who is now avg v us in military.

btw, it is 7 or 8 turns of advance.

And that is 7 or 8 turns after 12 or 14 turns from now.

If there is any struggle at all, PoA could be the drop that overflows the cup and brings victory to us. I do not want to throw that away into empty oceans.

	13-08-2003 10:59									#8
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Glad you are so sure how the war will go. I am not, and I cannot see throwing away an asset on blind thrusting into ocean only to find more ocean.

And if Expedition finds nothing up north, what will you agree to then? Shall we not risk exploring ever, simply because of the risk of losing 2 units?

It is also quite possible that the RNG gods might like us for a few turns, enough of a chance to find something.

	13-08-2003 11:01									#9
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quote: Originally posted by WhiteBandit Again, it's a risk. How much of a gambler are you? If we lose, then we get another 2 free units of support backhome :P

I am not a gambler when it comes to Poly winning or losing in this game.

Show me a good risk. I will take it.

Show me a act of folly, because you are bored perhaps, and I will reject it

	13-08-2003 11:04									#10
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quote: Originally posted by WhiteBandit And if Expedition finds nothing up north, what will you agree to then? Shall we not risk exploring ever, simply because of the risk of losing 2 units? It is also quite possible that the RNG gods might like us for a few turns, enough of a chance to find something.

When we are faced with nothing but ocean, then we will face that choice. However, there are several points that could yield good bets for crossings, and we have not seen them yet. When are we going to build more galleys to check them out? No time soon, from what I know.

	13-08-2003 11:04									#11
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither That is 6 turns of advance, not 6 turns from the start of the war, unless you think we can just cruise through a civ who is now avg v us in military. btw, it is 7 or 8 turns of advance. And that is 7 or 8 turns after 12 or 14 turns from now. If there is any struggle at all, PoA could be the drop that overflows the cup and brings victory to us. I do not want to throw that away into empty oceans.

We have units from a new era, and part of their army is tied down elsewhere. So yes, I expect that we should have a better-than-average offensive against them.

Even at the fastest, PoA can get to BoP in 21 turns. Even with 8 turns of advance + 14 to build up that's coinciding just when we reach Catchopolis.

What can 1 regular Swordsman do inside that hornet's nest but get killed? We can't merge it with the rest of the stack without great effort (21 turn trasit time + 5 turns marching overland), and as I said before, what will GCA place the greater emphasis on, defeating the 25 units heading for their capital or the 1 Galley/reglar Swordsman next to BoP? If they're smart (which they've proven themselves to be) they'll simply ignore them and focus instead on the stack that could cost them their existence.

	13-08-2003 11:05									#12
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I am not a gambler when it comes to Poly winning or losing in this game. Show me a good risk. I will take it. Show me a act of folly, because you are bored perhaps, and I will reject it

Losing one galley is not going to change the course of events in this game in a negative way. Any potential benefit it could offer to the GCA war is negligible.

I would be willing to say that if the galley is succesful, it will have a FAR greater impact on the course of world events than any positive impact it could have helping to crush GCA.

	13-08-2003 11:06									#13
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Trip, glad you know how a war that has not been fought is going to go. Are you French, by any chance?

	13-08-2003 11:07									#14
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither tRIP, Glad you know how a war that has not been fought is going to go. Are you French, by any chance?

And I'm glad you know that our Galley will sink after it finds nothing but ocean.

	13-08-2003 11:08									#15
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither tRIP, Glad you know how a war that has not been fought is going to go. Are you French, by any chance?

How about we keep personal insults out of this and debate plans.

You're only rebuttal so far is that the galley should be used at home for war with GCA. What kind of benefits will this offer?

It's quite possible a barbarian galley could sink us on the way back home. We're taking risks either way.

I think my plan has greater potential benefits than your plan.

	13-08-2003 11:09									#16
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quote: Originally posted by WhiteBandit Losing one galley is not going to change the course of events in this game in a negative way. Any potential benefit it could offer to the GCA war is negligible. I would be willing to say that if the galley is succesful, it will have a FAR greater impact on the course of world events than any positive impact it could have helping to crush GCA.

And I would like to launch that galley when it has a chance of being successful. Like when we can see Sea tiles on the other side. I do not relish throwing 60 shields away on blind luck when we have yet to exhaust the possibilities for finding a better bet.

	13-08-2003 11:12									#17
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quote: Originally posted by WhiteBandit I think my plan has greater potential benefits than your plan.

I disagree.

But, you are free to sim this out, and convince me that all ocean ventures can be highly successful.

	13-08-2003 11:13									#18
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither And I would like to launch that galley when it has a chance of being successful. Like when we can see Sea tiles on the other side. I do not relish throwing 60 shields away on blind luck when we have yet to exhaust the possibilities for finding a better bet.

Part of the bet is the timeframe involved here. Do you think we should wait until Navigation to go find the contacts? That's the "best" bet, after all.

	13-08-2003 11:16									#19
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I sense a very high degree of hostility here... calm down people, it ain't worth it. No need to insult each other just because you disagree.

I am in the opinion that we should suicide one of them. The one that is farthest away. Why? Because it has no use to the war effort. Simple as that, and who knows, we might get lucky.

	13-08-2003 11:16									#20
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I disagree. But, you are free to sim this out, and convince me that all ocean ventures can be highly successful.

If you don't see how making contact with the rest of the civs in the game and how much of a boon this could be on trading is beneficial vs. dropping two swordsman in the middle of GCA territory to die a quick death, then there's nothing I can do to convince you.

	13-08-2003 11:16									#21
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I'm not a big fan of blind suicide galleys. We need to find a clue somewhere, a hint of sea, and suicide at that point. Just diving off into the ocean kills innumerable galleys and the chances that we happen to pick the right spot and survive the journey are way too small to justify the expense at this time.

Later, when the war is wrapped up and we can afford to throw 30 sheild units into the void, let's do it. But for now it's ill advised and far too impatient.

--Togas

	13-08-2003 11:19									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Togas I'm not a big fan of blind suicide galleys. We need to find a clue somewhere, a hint of sea, and suicide at that point. Just diving off into the ocean kills innumerable galleys and the chances that we happen to pick the right spot and survive the journey are way too small to justify the expense at this time. Later, when the war is wrapped up and we can afford to throw 30 sheild units into the void, let's do it. But for now it's ill advised and far too impatient. --Togas

As I've said before, the problem is the timeframe involved here.

If we could build 3 more Galleys next turn and had sea to shoot for then I would suggest waiting by all means. But we don't have 3 Galleys and we don't have sea, and chances are we won't have the former for 40 turns and won't get the latter until Navigation.

If we lose a Galley and a regular Sword I won't cry rivers over it. Hell, as WB pointed out it will help ease our support costs. We'll get an extra Med Inf upgrade if they bite the bullet.

	13-08-2003 11:20									#23
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quote: Originally posted by WhiteBandit If you don't see how making contact with the rest of the civs in the game and how much of a boon this could be on trading is beneficial vs. dropping two swordsman in the middle of GCA territory to die a quick death, then there's nothing I can do to convince you.

You can convince me that you have an edge on the 100 to 1 odds that an all ocean departure will yield any results. Maybe you can show me that the odds are only 25 to 1. Whatever. You are welcome to actually back it up. I will admit I am wrong if I am. Will you?

	13-08-2003 11:21									#24
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Is the proposal to send the galleys with the swordsmen ?

If the galleys are sent....

I would suggest dropping the swords onto the two islands, before sending the boats into the ocean.

If the galleys sink, the swords can still be on the lookout for suicide galleys from the other continent.
And if need be, we could argue the swords are laying claim to the islands, and are waiting for settlers. (ie...claiming that iron)

Note: I have not yet decided if suicide galleys are worth it yet. Waiting to hear more arguments.

Regs

	13-08-2003 11:23									#25
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither You can convince me that you have an edge on the 100 to 1 odds that an all ocean departure will yield any results. Maybe you can show me that the odds are only 25 to 1. Whatever. You are welcome to actually back it up. I will admit I am wrong if I am. Will you?

I'm completely willing to say I was wrong... if I am. Unfortunately, the only way to find out if I am wrong is to actually try it.

Frankly, there's no possible way I can sim this for you. I believe Trip said the odds are 50% the galley sinks. It will either sink or it won't. That's all I can offer you in that regard.

	13-08-2003 11:26									#26
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither You can convince me that you have an edge on the 100 to 1 odds that an all ocean departure will yield any results. Maybe you can show me that the odds are only 25 to 1. Whatever. You are welcome to actually back it up. I will admit I am wrong if I am. Will you?

We have a 50% chance to make it if there's coast 6 tiles or fewer away from the PoA's launching. 25% chance to make it if there's coast 9 tiles away. 12.5% chance to make it if there's coast 12 tiles away. 6.25% chance if there's 15.

And chances are the other continent is probably within 15 tiles. Sooo... the odds are a bit better than 1/100, especially since it's 15 tiles between Shen Ling and Catchopolis, or Mingapulco and Catchopolis.

	13-08-2003 11:30									#27
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Here's a map with settings like in our game.

There is only one good E-W crossing point. What are the odds of picking just there to have a go, and then living?

Then again, we do have to take into account that our map has been modded, and just how has it been modded?

	13-08-2003 11:33									#28
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Interestingly, without the fort all trick, you would never see the Sea on the other side after just one turn on the ocean.

Do we know that fort all still works?

	13-08-2003 11:34									#29
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That was the second map I generated randomly, btw. I did not have to go looking for it. The first one had near coastal crossings.

	13-08-2003 11:36									#30
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Do we know that fort all still works?

A ship fortified can see 3 tiles over water, regardless of the type of ship or the type of water.