13-10-2003 05:01									#1
	Turn 127 - 30BC - Turn 7 of the war Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

To be edited only by the Consuls and Ministers.

Status:
- Republic
- Researching Invention (30) 1 scientist.
- 178 gold +40 gpt
- Slider at 9/0/1 tax/sci/lux
change Lux slider to 20% - MoI's orders

Urgent questions & tasks
- Plans for continuing the war - how best to proceed?
- Do we give CFC contact with CGN?
- What should our new unit build proportions be?
- Safe passage for PoA in GWT's sealanes. Same treaty as with CGN?
-GCA has the GL: how can we stop them from getting Iron to upgrade with/what do we need to beat them if they make a stand in their hill city with many Pikes?

Unit Movement & Actions:

To be filled in by the MoW


Economy:
Apolyton - Settler built, start building Horseman (turn 1 of 3).
Mingapolco - Num Merc built, start building Horseman (turn 1 of 3).
Bananatopia - Building Settler (turn 3 of 3).
Incensity - Building Horseman (turn 4 of 4).
Nevermore - Building Worker (turn 7 of 10).
Tripoli - Building Num Merc (turn 3 of 3).
Equilibrium - Building Courthouse (turn 2 of 80 schedualed).
Cuildo de Alcohol - Building Settler (turn 7 of 10).
Hispanica - Building Num Merc (turn 5 of 5).
Possumopolis - Builting Catapult (3 of 5).
Karina - Building Cat (turn 6 of 10).
LuxInvicta - Building Settler (turn 6 of 7 schedualled).
Big Bend - Building Catapult (8 of 12 schedualled).
BigFurryCity - Building Horse (turn 3 of 3)
Heart of Darkness - Building Catapult (turn 2 of 4).

WF:
These WF setting WILL MOST LIKELY change IF we have a GA triggered this turn!!
Apolyton - (Settler built) starting WF ??8-12-13-17??. Change WF to 8-13-14-17.
Mingapulco - starting WF 2-5-8-9-10. NC.
Bananatopia - starting WF 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-19 (working game). Change WF to 2-3-4-5-6-14-15-19 (working game). Note: will grow next turn, addin one of the other tiles and making 10 SPT for the settler build. changed from original posting
Incensity - starting WF 5-6-7-17. Change WF to 4-5-7-17..
Nevermore - starting WF 7. NC.
Tripoli - starting WF 2-4-9-17-18. Change WF to 2-4-7-9-17.
Equilibrium - starting WF scientist. NC.
Cuildo de Alcohol - starting WF 10-19. NC.
Hispanica - starting WF 1-2-3-4-20. NC.
Possumopolis - starting WF 7-14. NC.
Karina - (grows this turn) starting WF 3-??11??. Change WF to 6-11.
LuxInvicta - (grows this turn) starting WF 1-3-7-??9??-14. Change WF to 1-2-3-5-14. changed from original posting
Big Bend - starting WF 1-10. Change WF to 1-3.
BigFurryCity - starting WF 5-6-7-8-19-20. NC
Heart of Darkness - starting WF 3-10-11-13. NC.

Workers:
Monkee & CalcII - start Clearing Tripoli 1 (WF #6) - 6 turns.
Horse & Squid - move 2-3 to Tripoli 6 (WF #3), will start clearing next turn.
Gang of 3 (MrWIA, EVC & Dejon) - move 8-8 to Tripoli WF #9 and Mine (done).
Mark & Otto - Road (done).
Frodo & Out of Darkness - 2 turns left to clear.
Spike & panag - 3 turns left to clear.
Dan & Gits - 4 turns left to clear.
Lib and Slave Farb - 7 turns left to clear.
Yo & rah - start roading for the MoW - 2 turns (will be roaded next turn and they will be frozen).
Slave Anarchy - Direction of MoW for war purposes, but not for general improvements in that area.


Diplomacy:
GCA: WAR
CFC: Allied against GCA (not in game, Peace in game)

Send 56 gold "accepted" to CFC.

CGN: Peace
GWT: Peace

Comment, please, many "plans" are just suggestions or ideas, not decisions already made.

---
Note: keypad directions used for all except WF orders.

Discussion and basic reporting to follow. See the topped thread for comprehensive results

Last edited by E_T on 20-10-2003 at 08:50

	13-10-2003 06:25									#2
	MOW Orders Tired of ads?

Attack on Algalord:

Our Catapults will bombard the city until the Walls are destroyed (shouldn't take all 5 Catapults, but it may). After that our MIs will attack and either destroy the Swordsman Army or knock its HP down so that it's no longer on the top of the stack. The rest of the Catapults will then bombard. Then the rest of the MIs will attack. Then the 2 Horsemen will attack. Then the NMs will attack. Then, if necessary, Hagbart and BF can be used to attack the city if it's barely holding on.

Please be wary of any changes in units in the Army Groups.

Unit Roster

AGA contains: 7 vet MIs (01-07), 2 vet Horses (03, 05), 2 vet NMs (06, 08), 1 elite Warrior (06), 1 regular Warrior (02) (13 units). {Algalord 7}

AGB contains: 6 vet MIs (8, 11, 18-21), 2 vet NMs (10, 12), 1 regular NM (02), 5 Catapults (01-05) (14 units). {Algalord 7}

AGC contains: 1 elite MI (15), 1 vet MI (14), 4 vet NMs (13-16), 1 Catapult (06) (7 units). {Algalord 8-7}

AGD contains: 5 vet MIs (16, 17, 22-24), 2 vet Horsemen (04, 06) (7 units). {Algalord 8-8-7}

Damaged units healing: [None]
War Casualties: M09, M10, N09, N11, H01, H02, S01, S02

Non-War Orders

G01 Princess of Apolyton [WhiteBandit] moves 7-8-7 then uses FORTIFY ALL trick with WB. {Over by GWT}

M12 BigFurryInfantry fortifies to heal. {southeast of Equilibrium}
M26 Alva remains fortified; waiting for barbs to appear in the north or to the southeast. {Mingapulco 6}

N01 MerZenary remains fortifies; waiting for barbs in the north. {BFC 7}
N04 Togas skips turn; protecting the Workers/colony. {Equilibrium 4-4-7}
N05 Enamel moves 7; will join the war effort now that Alva is an MI and can take over barb-killing duty. {southeast of BB on the peninsula}
N07 Ghengis remains fortified; protecting the south from barbs and possible GCA incursions. {BB 8}

War Orders

Worker Yo roads (2 turns). {Algalord 8-8-7}
Worker Rah roads (2 turns). { Algalord 8-8-7}
Slave Anarchy moves 2. {Algalord 8-7}

G02 Expedition moves 3 and fortifies; will make it look like we picked up more units and are heading south again. {Off GCA east coast}

M13 Beta moves 9 to the road. {Elucidium 1}
M25 'K' moves 3-2. {Nevermore 2-2}
M27 'Bananatopia' moves 2-2-2. {Cuido 8}

H07 'BFC' moves 3-2. {Nevermore 2-2}

N17 'Mingapulco' moves 2-1-2. {Mingapulco}

C07 'Possum' moves 2-3-2; heading for the front. {Nevermore 2}
C08 'Heart of Darkness' moves 2-1-2; heading for the front. {Karina 8}

W12 moves 2. {Northwest of Algalord}

AGA attacks Algalord at 3. {Algalord 7}

AGB attacks Algalord at 3. {Algalord 7}

AGC moves 2 to cover AGA/B and attack the following turn. {Algalord 8-7}

AGD moves 2 except for the Horsemen which can move to Algalord 7. {Algalord 8-8-7}

All other units to remain as they are.

Please take all discussion on the war to the Turn-by-Turn thread.

Last edited by BigFree on 20-10-2003 at 09:46

	14-10-2003 01:21									#3
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

MoI Orders are posted, but the WF might change, pending the possibility of a GA next turn.

I suggest that everyone look at the screenshots of Algalord in the War thread and download the sims that Trip has posted. This battle will be the deciding factor in the war, it may be out Waterloo.

MoI E_T

	14-10-2003 19:51									#4
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Do have enough "certainty" that we're going to win this battle? Right now, we have the upper hand, but if we lose this, we might as well disband our cities now.

Please discuss before attacking!

	14-10-2003 20:16									#5
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

I think that even if we're unsure of the outcome, we have to hit now. The more spears and swords we kill now, the fewer pikes and med infs we face when they hook up their iron. It's gonna hurt, but it's gotta be done.

-Arrian

	14-10-2003 22:23									#6
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

We have to hit them now, or else they will whittle away our forces using horses and reload.

For a similar situation, see the Vox-GS war where the vox immortals in large force stood on a mountain adjacent to our city. We pinged them for several turns using our cats and then took them out the ole fashioned way. Delay within the enemy's striking distance is folly. (note, GS didn't reload turns )

It wouldn't really suprise me to see a spear army in that city next turn, they have a few elite horses and an elite sword.

	15-10-2003 01:49									#7
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

CGN now has the save and we are up next. Let's hope that Miccofl doesn't take too long with the save.

E_T

	15-10-2003 03:57									#8
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Damn GWT, they sent an inturn peace proposal to CGN and they have to poll about it. We won't likely see the turn until tomorrow

E_T

	15-10-2003 04:05									#9
	Remove this text

Shoot, I was hoping to see the destruction of Algalord BEFORE I go on vacation.

	15-10-2003 13:55									#10
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Maybe GWT just put a peace offer on the table to gather intelligence out of the negotiation screen and forgot to remove the offer.
IMHO CGN should ask GWT wether the peace offer was intentional or not.

	16-10-2003 00:44									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Shiber Maybe GWT just put a peace offer on the table to gather intelligence out of the negotiation screen and forgot to remove the offer. IMHO CGN should ask GWT wether the peace offer was intentional or not.

If CGN and GWT had any out-of-game communication going on, I'm sure they would have. The issue seems to be that they are not even talking to one another outside of the gamescreen.... even when this came up.

I haven't yet seen a more clear indication that these two are destined to probably fight for a LONG time to come than this... they're debating a peace offer and they aren't TALKING WITH the other side about it...

I'll keep you guys posted if miccofl mentions anything about it.

	16-10-2003 00:49									#12
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

The knowledge that they are not talking to each other even when discussing peace is soooo much more comforting than if they WERE talking during their war.

This could bode very well for us in the future.

	16-10-2003 01:08									#13
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Just got this from miccofl (as also posted in the FA Correspondence thread):

quote: Arnelos> how's that poll coming? miccofl> 69.23% for peace 30.77% for continued war. I set it to end at 5:45 PM EDT so we will start about 6 PM miccofl> we have had a 62% turnout for the poll so I'm not too woried about it only lasting a day Arnelos> right miccofl> It sometimes makes me think I should send an email everytime I post a thread but I refuse to be a babysitter Arnelos>

	16-10-2003 04:17									#14
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miccofl reports that CGN is currently playing their turn. We should have the save soon.

	16-10-2003 06:24									#15
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel For a similar situation, see the Vox-GS war where the vox immortals in large force stood on a mountain adjacent to our city. We pinged them for several turns using our cats and then took them out the ole fashioned way. Delay within the enemy's striking distance is folly. (note, GS didn't reload turns )

Wish we had. The war may have gone differently.

Just kidding. We were very gun shy of attacking pikemen in a walled city. The only time I think we did was near the end - Inchon, I believe - as a desperation move. After I forgot to cover the open North Estonia tile with a warrior. (*Beta smacks himself in the head... again.) And we still came up short there despite some fairly good RNG's IIRC.

But asleep - your point is well taken, as are the other sentiments in this thread. You have your shot - take it.

	16-10-2003 06:43									#16
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Turn is here. AGA/B are missing 7 units with 2 damaged NMs. No GA.

This means GCA won 7 battles against our units, had Horsemen retreat from 2 battles against NMs, and lost 0 battles.

	16-10-2003 06:44									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Beta Wish we had. The war may have gone differently. Just kidding. We were very gun shy of attacking pikemen in a walled city. The only time I think we did was near the end - Inchon, I believe - as a desperation move. After I forgot to cover the open North Estonia tile with a warrior. (*Beta smacks himself in the head... again.) And we still came up short there despite some fairly good RNG's IIRC. But asleep - your point is well taken, as are the other sentiments in this thread. You have your shot - take it.

And you know when you finally took your shot at inchon, you came very close to overrunning the defenses.

	16-10-2003 06:57									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Trip Turn is here. AGA/B are missing 7 units with 2 damaged NMs. No GA. This means GCA won 7 battles against our units, had Horsemen retreat from 2 battles against NMs, and lost 0 battles.

Mother****ing cheaters.

We have 24 hours, we should drop this on mongoose towards the end of that, after the data has been processed.

	16-10-2003 06:58									#19
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

If/when we play the turn my orders still stand.

That is, attack with the Catapults until the Walls are destroyed, kill the Army with MIs, fire the rest of the Catapults, launch all of the healed MIs, then Horses, then the 2 remaining NMs if there are targets of opportunity.

All units for the war not in AGA/B move towards the main theater of combat (Algalord 7).

	16-10-2003 06:59									#20
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel We have 24 hours, we should drop this on mongoose towards the end of that, after the data has been processed.

Exactly what I proposed in chat.

	16-10-2003 07:01									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Arnelos Exactly what I proposed in chat.

Which I would know, If I was in the chat

	16-10-2003 08:06									#22
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After EXTENSIVE debate in the chat channel, the following compromise has been reached:

- NYE will play the save now and meticulously record moves in order they were taken (in the event of needed replay). The save will NOT be immediately sent.
- The rest of us have less than 24 hours to collect data, run numbers, and present a case PRIVATELY to Mongoose
- The FAM can request certain data discretely from CFC (OctavianX?) and former members of CDG (GhengisFarb?) if the questions they're asking are cleared.
- Nothing of this is to be told to anyone beyond the Apolyton ISDG Team beyond discrete questioning (with cleared questions) by the FAM or specific others of CFC and CDG. We want this to remain PRIVATE.
- Once numbers are run by us here at poly on any collected information, we will put together our case. That case will be privately sent to Mongoose for his arbitration of the matter.
- Regardless of other concerns, the save will be sent on within 24 hours of our receipt of it.

If I've forgotten something, my apologies.

Now...

We also need data for all combats where GCA attacked us and what the odds of each individual attack was. Anyone who wishes to help with this part is welcome to do so.

I am willing to run the numbers on overall probability and any statistics, if required (running statistics won't be necessary if GCA has a 100% victory rate... the math will be painfully easy - just multiply all of the victory chances together).

Master Zen, my understanding is that you are serving as our de facto liaison to CFC (Octavian X in particular) and I trust your ability to be discrete. If you can talk with the Consuls about what should say and with me or others about what data we need (Kloreep is a good choice for that as well along with others willing to help), you could obtain this from CFC.

Someone who talks with GhengisFarb could privately obtain any information he might have from the CDG-GCA conflict. Please consult with us here about what data we need.

--------------

Let me know if I'm leaving anything out. Thanks.

--------------

EDIT: I'm opening the save now to look at what at least I can tell about the odds from this turn and try to calculate what I can from it.

	16-10-2003 08:50									#23
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I have listened to all those present in chat. Many would like to be more agressive on this issue than Arnelos indicates. I have agreed to hold the save for 24 hours while the issues are examined and discussed.

We have proceeded with our military actions in the Algalord front only. This is what happened:

5 cats bombard. The 4th takes down the walls, all others miss.

mi steelglove attacks and kills army
mi Scourge attacks and kills spear
mi Slash attacks spear and dies. 2 pips on spear
mi Theseus attacks and kills spear
mi E_t attacks and kills spear
mi Arnelos attacks and kills spear
mi wervdon attacks and kills spear
mi g attacks and kills spear
mi e attacks spear and dies. 2 pips on spear
ho Mingapulco attacks and kills spear
ho VonHorseman attacks 3/5 spear and dies. 2 more pips on spear.

That is all that is done.

	16-10-2003 09:11									#24
	Increase the size of your Attachments

We lost 7 Veteran Numidian Mercs?

Let's assume that all attacking GCA forces were Elite Swordsmen (to give them the benefit of the doubt). Then there's a 0.583^7 = 2.3% chance that GCA would win all their battles without loss.

What complicates this figure is:

1. Catapults, both our own and theirs (if they have any). It is possible that, knowing they would be on defense, GCA built a few Cats and kept them out of sight (i.e. out of CFC investigation of Algalord). But given that there were Cats on our side too (and not wanting to do any standard deviation calculations), I'll just assume that this factors washes out.

2. Retreating Horsemen. With numerous Veteran and Elite Horsemen at their disposal, they could have whittled away at our Mercs losslessly (taking all the Cat hits), clearing a better path for their Swordsmen. Without knowledge of exaclty how many Horsemen they had on hand to do this we cannot figure out how likely it was that each Horseman was able to retreat. Nonetheless, with conservative average retreat rate of 60% and 6 mounted units (enough to skew the Swordsmen battle results), there is an ~7% chance that GCA would retreat from every battle.

Of course, this is a very quick and dirty analysis. Barring any obvious mistakes though, I think it's clear something fishy is going on.


Dominae

	16-10-2003 09:26									#25
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We lost 3 mercs, 4 mis on their turn. All vet. 2 more mercs are wounded at the start of the turn, no GA yet, so that means 2 horse attacked and retreated.

	16-10-2003 09:28									#26
	Remove this text

btw, looking at the save and clicking around cities...

WW is upon us. About 25%. This is before we attack, and after (no change). Go into a city, adjust WF, and it will show up.

	16-10-2003 09:43									#27
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Investigations showed they only had 6 spearmen in Algalord.

Per NYE, we just killed 7 and injured another.
They must of had units outside the city.
And I think this is where they are making their stand.

And when you make a stand, horsemen are no good kept in defense. Swords could also be used if they dont have the gold for mass upgrades. They would do their spears to pikes first.

I am not surprised that they used horsemen and maybe swords against us....no matter the odds.

It does not explain the results, but it reasonably to expect they would attack.

	16-10-2003 12:18									#28
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Individual Chances are:

Elite Sword -vs- Vet NumMerc 58.3%
Vet Sword -vs- Vet NumMerc 44.8%
Vet Horse -vs- Vet NumMerc 24.8%
Elite Sword -vs- Vet MedInf 78.8%
Vet Sword -vs- Vet MedInf 66.4%
Vet Horse -vs- Vet MedInf 44.8%

...none fortified, not crossing river, minimal terrain bonus.
...retreat nor catapults are taken into account.

So, with 7 Elite Swordsmen, their chance of winning is:

58.3%^3 * 78.8%^4 = 7.6%

Source:
Combat Calculator at CFC

	16-10-2003 12:45									#29
	Put an end to popups!

How damaged our MIs are? With AGC arriving could we deliver next turn a fatal hit on Algalord?

	16-10-2003 12:45									#30
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Holy Cow!

GCA does have a player named "Lucky"

I just hope he hasn't found a way to produce his own luck at our expense. He may have found a way to rig the RNG. But I doubt he can insert extra units into the game, so, we will win eventually because we can attack with more units than they can.

If I'm reading things correctly we lost 7 units on the last turn and 2 more this turn, so far, for a total of 9 units lost since the end of last turn and the middle of this one. During the same period, It looks like GCA lost 6 Spears and 3 Swords (in the Army) for a total of 9 units. GCA could have lost a Sword or a Horse or both to one of our MI's (causing no damage to the MI).

What I find intriguing is that they MUST have attacked with their Horses first against our NM's. We can get CFC to confirm that GCA does not have any Cats in Algalord as of this turn and also get an update on what is left there. I am willing to pay CFC for this service again, just to confirm this.