09-02-2004 19:09									#1
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As I mentioned on another thread, an 'unnamed source' from GoW, in reply to the Lego Intel, mentioned the logic of a 3-way alliance against Lego. Hinting that the idea is circulating on Bob

RP may approach ND with the Intel too, perhaps trying to sell it to see what ND's reaction is. (I suggested to Arn they should give it a go - they like that sort of thing)

As we've just disbanded our navy and can only spare a dozen units from our wall, we're not in a position to fight a war, but nor were Lego when they joined the alliance against us. If RP complete their sea-wall, and we get a cav-making kit from Bob, we could probably field 30 Cavalry within 15 turns.

The rumour talks of a narrow window between Mil Trad and Nat/Steam.

	09-02-2004 20:14									#2
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I'm fine with cutting Lego out of trades to slow them down, sure, but I'm not really up for helping GoW/ND militarily.

-Arrian

	09-02-2004 20:33									#3
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I wouldn't be suprised if this wasn't just an attempt to get us to drop the wall.


I'm in favor of a tech/luxury embargo (hell we are already not trading them techs). But any unit response is a bit too much at this point. Though we could drop a couple galleons of cavs I suppose on the west side to divert attention.

This just smells of Vox's second arrival on Bob, ie a setup.

	09-02-2004 20:37									#4
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Yeah, it does. I think GoW is in bed with Lego, so I think they might just be playing along with us - telling us what we want to hear (that they are considering hitting Lego).

-Arrian

	09-02-2004 20:40									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian I'm fine with cutting Lego out of trades to slow them down, sure, but I'm not really up for helping GoW/ND militarily. -Arrian

It's a tricky balance. Lego need to bleed, and soon. We'd want them damaged, not destroyed - so an attack would need to be strong, but not too strong.

GoW and ND cannot commit to attacking Lego without our support. They have an entire continent to lose if we're not on their side. We wouldn't have to send troops to Legoland to be a part of it, though the others may expect our participation.

	09-02-2004 20:45									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Yeah, it does. I think GoW is in bed with Lego, so I think they might just be playing along with us - telling us what we want to hear (that they are considering hitting Lego). -Arrian

Don't GoW sleep with whoever can help them at the time?

We certainly wouldn't want to drop our sea-wall, and saying that to them might test the water a bit. We'll see if they say anything official.

	09-02-2004 20:53									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus GoW and ND cannot commit to attacking Lego without our support. They have an entire continent to lose if we're not on their side. We wouldn't have to send troops to Legoland to be a part of it, though the others may expect our participation.

would they take a NAP with us now?

whatever agreement needs to be very very carefully written. Phrases such as "only goes into effect if legoland is attacked at home."


I wonder about those dozen or so lego knights.

What would be fantasticly funny is if they were being withdrawn currently to legoland, and gow waits for them to board their ships, then sinks them. how damaging would that be. 12 knights poof in one fell swoop!

	09-02-2004 20:55									#8
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Ok. Discussing possibilities is fine. Just don't commit us to didly squat yet (I know you wouldn't, but GoW can be pushy sometimes. See how the ill-fated NAP came to be).

But I've very little desire to help GoW and/or ND militarily. Let me explain a bit further:

That's the area GoW are strongest, and we are weakest. They have a large fastmover force, and have Leos. ND is more balanced, but they too are militarily strong and capable. The two of them should have enough military power to seriously damage Lego if they can find a spot to land (I'd be SHOCKED if Lego isn't covering their coastline, at least the one facing Bob).

Without dropping the sea wall (which is not an option), we can only commit a token force, unless we really poured our economy into building horsies and upgrading to Cav. 30 cavalry? Assuming we use what knights we have on hand + some horsies to come up with that number, it's still going to be expensive. Plus we need the transport capacity to deliver those 30 Cavalry... and defensive units to cover the cav (better 10 muskets + 20 cav than just 30 cav). That's 8 galleons. Plus we would need some cover for the galleons. Lots of stuff we don't have right now.

OUR strength is our economy, which is humming along nicely now that we've regeared it for peace. It is with that we can hurt Lego (by trading with the Bobians but not with them, and possibly by getting a tech lead and snatching key wonders out from under them).

-Arrian

	09-02-2004 21:59									#9
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OK, all points understood. It would put a dent in our economic program and could be tricky to arrange, and we probably wouldn't want to do it. We can still calculate the price of this 'contingency', though.

We have 24 Knights, (12 spare), and 5 galleys. If RP complete their wall we get another dozen units available. We'd need to build six pikes/cats to make up the numbers on the wall, three more galleons and at maybe six frigates. Maybe about 3 turns-worth of empire production in shield terms.

Then the cash : 20 Knights-to-Cav, 10 Pike-to-Musket and 5 Galleys-to-Galleons. What's that? 1200g? About 3 turns of research time.

So three turns of output is a rough price-tag for sending 10 Muskets and 20 Cav to Legoland. That's the supply side.

On the demand side, the kind of scenario that could warrant such a venture might be if Lego was bogged down on one side by GoW / ND, and we turned up on another. The destruction of Legopolis with Bach & Sistine would be quite a prize. This may be an impractical idea, but I just wanted to explore the idea a bit and maybe put a plan/idea on the shelf, so-to-speak.

	09-02-2004 22:03									#10
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(That estimate didn't include any costs to obtain Mil Trad and Saltpeter)

	09-02-2004 22:26									#11
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I just got up so if I am not cogent, ignore me. The thing that come to me is that if I ignore all the scenarios for back stabbing, what do I get?

I think that any invasion that did not fail could lead to Lego being eliminated. I would think any invasion of Bob or Stormia would go the same way. The defenders either drive the invaders out or lose everything.

In that case, Lego would probably be split largely between the Bobians. So how much land could we afford them to have?

The best scenario right now for us is an invasion of Lego that fails and does not include us in a large way. cost all three parties lots of headway.

As to the intrigue it is beyond my expertise. I would say it is very wise to be suspicous.

	09-02-2004 23:07									#12
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quote: Originally posted by vmxa1 I think that any invasion that did not fail could lead to Lego being eliminated. I would think any invasion of Bob or Stormia would go the same way. The defenders either drive the invaders out or lose everything. In that case, Lego would probably be split largely between the Bobians. So how much land could we afford them to have? The best scenario right now for us is an invasion of Lego that fails and does not include us in a large way. cost all three parties lots of headway.

Yes. Ideally, Legopolis with its two happy-wonders and a couple of other core cities would be destroyed after a bloody conflict and a rails/rifles stalemate would follow. If the invasion succeeded completely and destroyed Lego, the GoW/ND alliance could legitimately declare a joint domination victory. Even if the other teams did not accept, it's checkmate, and only a matter of time before ourselves and the minor teams are eliminated. If only two allies are left standing and declare victory, who's left to deny them that?

We don't play for grudges, but there would be at least be some satisfaction for GS to see Lego destroyed before ourselves by the alliance they sided with against us.

	09-02-2004 23:26									#13
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Honestly, how many people think that Lego don't have their coastline covered and/or have picket ships in the right spots to see incoming invaders so they can shuffle units around to cover the coast in the right spot(s)?

I must say that I doubt an invasion of Legoland will be possible before marines. To the extent that GoW and/or ND are looking at a massive Cav upgrade, they are most likely doing so in preparation of fighting each other, not Lego.

-Arrian

	09-02-2004 23:40									#14
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I think that is the most likely scenario. No invasions, only fake hints at it. The war is more likely to be GoW and ND. They have access to each other and have to worry about the other.

Either that or all stand pat for a long time. How a war could be set up without hurting the both of them, I am not sure.

The bet chance is if they do it soon. Before either Lego or GS could afford to jump in and get and hold land.

	10-02-2004 02:20									#15
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I, too, am in the "highly skeptical" camp. That said, however, I see no major downside to playing along, provided some basic security measures are implemented. Think Machiavelli.

If they are trying to play a game with us, the best thing we can do is to act as though they've succeeded. I'd recommend we start by "seeking more information." Much of it is stuff they'd expect us to ask, such as:

1) "What type of support are you expecting from us? After all, your highly capable military forces have largely decimated our noble armies. We are now a peace-loving people."

2) "What do we stand to gain from such an effort?"

3) "What are you prepared to contribute to such an effort?"

4) "How do you plan to surprise Lego, since it is highly likely that they will have a sea wall and pickets to detect any planned attack?"

The point here is that, if they are indeed trying to get us to lower our defenses, we are better off pretending to believe them. If we call them on their deception, we lose any chance to foil their plan.

In fact, by seeming interested but wary ("We'd like to believe you, but UnO's comments that he wants to remove us from the game make us a bit leery of trusting you."), we may get them to reveal more than they'd like. It may also open the door to a way to turn the tables on them and deal ourselves back into the game.

Just a thought.

	10-02-2004 05:09									#16
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So there's a clear consensus that we're not going to enter into a military alliance to weaken Lego, should an opportunity arise, but there might be diplomatic and intelligence opportunities if things unfold and we pretend we're interested.

Getting GoW and ND's reaction to the prospect of a 3-way IA tech arrangement would be good. We'll see what they say.

	10-02-2004 05:20									#17
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Yeah, I think we should string them along for a while (who knows when the save will be fixed, wish we knew more), after all they have done that to us this whole game.

what is RP's eta for navigation? they could devastate lego with their conquistadors....




I would love to see a beachhead established on lego with GoW/nd taking/razing maybe 4 or 5 ciites before being driven off.

	10-02-2004 05:36									#18
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel what is RP's eta for navigation? they could devastate lego with their conquistadors.... I would love to see a beachhead established on lego with GoW/nd taking/razing maybe 4 or 5 ciites before being driven off.

The dream scenario!

RP are probably about 30 turns from Nav, too long probably for the possible window on Lego, but it's a nice thought

We could suggest to RP that they hire themselves out for some recon if it kicks off over there sometime and they've got some conqs.

	10-02-2004 05:42									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus The dream scenario! RP are probably about 30 turns from Nav, too long probably for the possible window on Lego, but it's a nice thought We could suggest to RP that they hire themselves out for some recon if it kicks off over there sometime and they've got some conqs.

With lego having discovered nav, has the tech depreciated enough to be worthwhile to research faster? My guess is no, but ddin't think we recalculated it...

And I imagine that lego will have steam in 30 turns, not that they wll have their net up by then totally but... However, if Gow invades them, it will hurt their research a bit (hopefully )

now that I think about it, I don't even know what Conqs require. Horses? Saltpeter? Iron? Obviously the SP is a problem if thats needed...

	10-02-2004 06:00									#20
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RP are unlikely to get Nav much faster. I don't know whether they're on 10% or 1 scientist, but even if it is the former we need their GPT.

I don't think they need any SP for Conq's.

	10-02-2004 10:16									#21
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I'm almost confident that Lego has the same island defense mentality we have - any ship scouting there would see some sort of sea wall similar to our own.

So yes, I generally agree that it's folly to believe that, as it stands right now, a Lego invasion is even possible. If anything at all, we should only attempt to cripple them economically.

	10-02-2004 15:36									#22
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What about them landing on Voxtavia - another 40-50 tiles of coast to defend? Vox's nippy research doesn't suggest a large military.

GoW and ND have to do something with their huge militaries, and they can't hit us, so it's either Lego or each other. They know that hitting each other risks at worst death, and at best major losses, a far stronger Lego, and a more dangerous GS. In short, they couldn't defend Bob if one of them owned it all. Doing nothing means wasting their expensive military.

There's a Lego city I think we can investigate for < 40g. If 3 teams shared that cost we could regularly keep tabs on Lego's slider.

	10-02-2004 16:47									#23
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There are about 100 tiles on the coast of Lego major, plus 45 on the coast of Lego minor.

If Lego/Vox do seal their coast, and GoW/ND try, but fail to land, they'll just have to come back home and either fight each other or wait for Marines. If so, will they hit Lego first with Marines or us?

	10-02-2004 18:35									#24
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Just another thought:

While there is, it seems, a clear consensus that we will NOT participate in a military adventure against Lego, we may not wish to make such a statement right off the bat. While I doubt they're serious about such an invasion, they may be. By rejecting any military contribution out of hand, we could end up discouraging them from engaging in an activity that is surely in our interest. It may also prevent us from figuring out whether they're serious or if this is some elaborate trick. I think we can simply tell them the truth: our units are out-of-date now, we have no way to upgrade them, nor do we have a reason to participate unless we stand to make substantial gains.

	10-02-2004 18:56									#25
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They could immediately offer to see us clear on SP and Mil Trad -perhaps in exchange for ToG to level up for the IA research effort.

We might go for that deal if they offer it as a seperate from an alliance. We'd have 20 turns to upgrade our 2-dozen knights (480g) if we want. It would be nice to have them in the bag for later.
If they turn it down and insist on commitment we just say "sorry, we think you can do it on your own".

GoW/ND will be worried about us jumping onto Bob if they're on Lego, or trying to land. Ideally they want our units also on and around Lego for their own safety.

	10-02-2004 21:55									#26
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How can GoW (with or without ND) be looking to hit Lego during this window? If they were they would at least want to have assurances that we will sit on the sidelines or aid them in some minor fashion.

If that is correct they would have to be concluding a deal with us now, would they not? I mean you cannot swing that type of arraingement in 1 or 2 turns.

	10-02-2004 22:02									#27
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Ok anyone else see this is the Bob thread posted by Vondrack?

quote: I understand this is not going to happen until the game is over... and quite likely not even then... but I'd really like to know how you got this "intel" - since the only possibility was someone from Lego, GoW, or ND to tell you (nobody else could have legally known where it was). Personally, I consider the person that disclosed that information nothing short of a traitor.

RP did indeed get this from someone on Lego, IIRC it was Sharpe from Lego telling Aidun from RP in the Tabemono chat room. Although it could actually have been either Kloreep or Zargon aswell.

Anyone want to stir things up a bit? Perhaps suggest GoW told us?

	10-02-2004 22:35									#28
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It was sharpe, though I couldn't find where he explicitly said it (need a search function for private forums). Sharpe quit the team, IIRC cause he was fed up with the iron grip on Vond

Vondrack has got to be the biggest weasel around here. Goddamn man, admit that you lied to us or at least deliberately misled us to get us off the island. sheesh. Very clintonesque (and I loved Clinton) "how close is close". GIVE ME A FRICKING BREAK

OOOOHHH god I'm pissed at him and want to lay into him in that thread.

	10-02-2004 22:56									#29
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Keep that thread sweet, and hurt Lego in-game, I say

	10-02-2004 23:08									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus Keep that thread sweet, and hurt Lego in-game, I say

Yeah, I guess that its enough that Vondrack is now paranoid that he has a spy on his team. might get real ugly over there.