13-02-2004 22:21									#91
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Neither GoW nor ND can make much use of land on Lego for the same reasons that we can't. ND in particular already has its FP built, giving minimal benefit to expanding off Bob (given how much ground they can potentially sew up at GoW's expense). GoW can probably get more use out of Lego's territory, but they then have the problem of a very hard to defend territory - if they ship too much to Lego, they are vulnerable to ND, who could get much better use out of GoW land than they could out of Lego. If they stick to defending their home land, Vox should be capable of mounting enough of an attack to take Lego's ex-territory. If GoW make enough of a military commitment to defend both territories (given that ND or we could attack on either) then they cripple their economy in the long term with unit support costs, and their infrastructure in the medium term by not being able to build improvements instead of military.

GoW expanding on to Lego would be over-extending themselves enough to be taken advantage of.

Of couse, we face the same problem to a great extent trying to get anywhere off Bob - but we have a slight advantge in benig able to transplant RP who can then look out for themselves, while we get back N Stormia - we expand their, and RP expand off Stormia, to our mutual benefit.

	14-02-2004 02:12									#92
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While all that say could be correct, it does not matter. The fact is that one of the teams must be derailed.

GoW and ND cannot go head to head right now and win the game and they must know that.

They will have a harder time busting us, right now and that land is not enough to win.

The land does not ave to be productive to be valuable.

If Lego is crippled, GoW will have time to consoildate, before anyone will try to take them down. As we all will.
This is because by demanding that we put up a number of units, all teams will be spread thin, thus making them all vulnerable.

The bottom line to me is that they are talking about an invasion with us for a reason. either they see the need to hurt Lego or they are trying to trick us.

For all the reason I have mentioned, I would pick it is the former. either way we have to go with them.

	14-02-2004 02:54									#93
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quote: Originally posted by vmxa1 The bottom line to me is that they are talking about an invasion with us for a reason. either they see the need to hurt Lego or they are trying to trick us. For all the reason I have mentioned, I would pick it is the former. either way we have to go with them.

I've no doubt it's the former. This is not a trick against us.

They're offering us Saltpeter to get the job done. With that we could get a shed-load of Muskets and Cav together and dust off our plans for Bob. GoW and ND would be trusting us more than we'd have to trust them. They'd be trusting each other too. Major scope for backstabs there.

	14-02-2004 03:23									#94
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I do NOT think we "have to go with them."

We may decide it is in our interests to go with them (what if it turns out we have no coal, and there is some on the west coast of Lego?), but we don't HAVE to.

See, from my point of view, this thing is GoW/ND's problem. They are the #2 and #3 civs, and thus it's on them to take #1 down a peg or two. We, sitting at #4, don't necessary need (or want) to help them... directly at least.

Ask yourselves this: do you REALLY want to make GoW/ND's job easy? I don't think so. I think we want them to do a bundle of damage, but suffer heavy casualties in the process. Weaking all three civs, while we build like crazy and ponder a targetted marine strike on somebody down the road.

-Arrian

	14-02-2004 03:25									#95
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Further clarification of my position:

IF Legoland has not blocked their coastline and GoW & ND manage to find a landing zone, those two have more than enough firepower to do the job we want them to do.

There is absolutely no need for our direct involvement unless we're seriously considering eliminating Lego and dividing their lands.

-Arrian

	14-02-2004 03:38									#96
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian There is absolutely no need for our direct involvement unless we're seriously considering eliminating Lego and dividing their lands. -Arrian

The 'need' for GS involvement is not military but diplomatic. GoW's position is that that there will be no attack without us. We can call their bluff, but there would be the possiblity of Lego getting away.

	14-02-2004 04:22									#97
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RP are interested in getting involved against Lego - see the RP log thread. Probably too early for their UU, but it gives them something to get optimistic about. However marginal their capacity, Togas wants to buy his way into ND-GoW hearts so they can return to Bob, and good for them, I say.

	14-02-2004 05:38									#98
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Consider this Arrain. If you are Gow and Nd you are tied at the hip until you take down either Lego or Stormia, maybe both.

If GS does not come in with them and send forces, you would have to concern yourself that they (us) are a problem.
In that case you talk to Lego and come against us first.
Now you can deal with only one as a two on one.

We need to be on their side or they will make us the enemy or at least I would. I would not want to have someone else to worry about. That we come in and spend at least some units is a must to be counted on from their view.

We really do not have the option of sitting it out, they will not allow that. At least if I was them I would not.

If it goes well we will be number 3, rather than number 4. We will be much closer to #1 and #2 and have a chance to over take them. Of course it depends on what happens on Lego.

	14-02-2004 05:45									#99
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Further clarification of my position: IF Legoland has not blocked their coastline and GoW & ND manage to find a landing zone, those two have more than enough firepower to do the job we want them to do. There is absolutely no need for our direct involvement unless we're seriously considering eliminating Lego and dividing their lands. -Arrian

You may be correct, I do not know their conditions.
I would think that they have to worry that they could take massive losses and be exposed to a combine counter attack.

The way I would try to make it softer on us, is to have them hit the beach first. They get the bulk of the counter attack.
Maybe we could do a diversionary move to draw some attention and thus make it some what easier for them to land.
Be spotted off shore.

Maybe I am way off, but I find it hard to believe that Lego can blockade and protect that huge land mass at this point. down the road, yes.

Once the tech trade starts to work, we could consider get another ally on their contient. I am not informed about the disposition of Vox (is that the team?).

	14-02-2004 06:20									#100
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Hi guys, sorry, RL snagged my sorry *ss again. Hopefully over the weekend I can get caught up on all things Civ3 (and yes, I have completed AU 501! ).

I've caught up on the PTWDG, although having rushed through all the posts and not having reviewed a save I don't feel like I have my head fully wrapped around what's going on.

Of everything that's been posted though, what's jumped out at me has been CH's general stance that "heck, we don't know how this things gonna play out, but we're gonna do our damned best along the way", the consistent references to us being the #4 power, and prolly not a likely winner, and then, most succinctly, this post by nye:

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither For my part, without having read all this, aiding ND to eat Lego directly by weakening ourselves further, would be folly, IF all things were equal. Unfortunately, Lego long ago decided not to have a build off against us, and chose to place themselves squarely in our tracks. Hmmm... ND wins or Lego wins.... Frankly, I would choose ND after the stuff Lego has pulled in this game. Unlike some of you, I have a relationship with vondrack, and a great deal of respect for him. However, like you, I want to see him eat the fruits of his labours in this game. However, know this. A world without Lego is a world where ND wins. Be sure you know what you want before you do it.

Well, sorry, but F*CK THAT!!

Here are some of my macro thoughts:

* NDGoW have invited us to there little party. GOOD (I think it's real, btw). We need ongoing discord in the world... on that note, btw, the bit about spying and Vondrack freaking out in the public is brilliant, and more of the same should be encouraged.

* I'm OK with us participating militarily, especially as considered using primarily existing upgraded units. I haven't seen, however, a suggestion that RP's participation could count towards ours... in other words, whereas MZ suggested 30 Cavs from GS, how about instead 20 GS Cavs and 15-20 RP Conquistadors? I concur, btw, with CH that this will give us the highest chances of grabbing the GWs that we are targeting.

* I don;t care what happens to Lego... damaged or destroyed, the key is to turn Legoland into a war-torn hell, where ND and GoW are compelled to commit serious forces to protect whatever they want to keep from all, including each other. I suggest that we not plan on retaining any territory there at all, other than as military bases.

* Perhaps the most important point I can make: AFTER smashing Lego's bricks, we need to reduce ND's production power to the point where we can win a space race against them. This will require diplo maneuvers with GoW, military action, gaining control of the Bobian luxuries, etc. Whatever happens post-GAUL, ND's production capabilities *must* be diminished. My guess is that this will be with Tanks, supported by Cavs /Conqs in a razing role.

* Included in the above point re a space race is ensuring that WE later have sufficient military power projection to DEMAND or TAKE the resources we require (thank you very much for teaching that lesson AU 501! ). On a related note, I think that this might solve the research / espionage problem as identified by vulture... assuming we can figure out the theft of techs, we need to be strong enough make a blanket statement to the world that any such theft will be mightily punished.

* Also included in considering a space race is the potential relocation of RP (to where?), and, as I think I saw suggested, the dismantlement of certain of our core cities to allow for monster metros.

I guess what has occurred to me is the following very simple thought construct:

- We have a superb infrastructure, across all of commerce, research, and production. Again, btw, my most sincere compliments to CH and the rest of the team for where you've taken our empire and the game overall.

- We are in a highly defensible position (still need more thought re Marines, but I believe it to be solvable).

- GAUL is highly likely to succeed, at least to the minimums of 1) distracting / redirecting Lego's production, if not 2) BOOM, completely taking out a competitive production economy.

- The most significant remaining production economy will then be ND. If we can also take THAT out, well, who do we really face from a production standpoint? GoW? I fart in their general direction.

Thus, the endgame can be about PRODUCTION.

And there, my friends, I'll take GS and give points.

So, no, nye, we are not here to be kingmakers... but rather to be KINGS.

	14-02-2004 06:35									#101
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Good to have you back


This might be the best time in the game for us. Up until now we've just been on the receiving end, now we get to engage in deceit and trickery and be on the offense

I hope we can land a turn or two after GoW, would love to listen to Lego's pleas....

	14-02-2004 06:43									#102
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Hey sleepy.

I've been thinking of something else too, btw... isn't GAUL inevitable in a way, as long as we participate in some fashion?

Does that preclude us from somehow telegraphing to Lego what is about to happen?

Don;t start yelling at me everyone!

I just mean that, heck, don;t we won't Legoland to be the biggest slog possible for NDGoW?

Deceit and trickery, indeed.

	14-02-2004 08:14									#103
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus So, no, nye, we are not here to be kingmakers... but rather to be KINGS.

Point taken.

	14-02-2004 09:01									#104
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Theseus, I don't think it will be necessary. They are sharp and will soon see they have a problem. They may not know how big the problem is, but they will at least know GoW and ND are coming.

The first time they can't make any trades and they see the price drop of the some of the techs, far sooner than they should. It then will be clear that tech trading is going on and they are not part of it.

To me that is the fly in the ointment. The attack will have to be soon after the first round of techs are swapped. Otherwise Lego will smell a rat and switch to military builds. Unless I give them too much credit.

I think if we send some ships out and Lego see them, they will have to figure it is a gangbang. They will have to know we could not assault them by ourself.

	14-02-2004 19:59									#105
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Good point, v. The lack of tech trades will be the telegraph. Has this been addressed with NDGoW? As you point out, it will have an important impact on timing of attack.

	14-02-2004 20:30									#106
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus Hi guys, sorry, RL snagged my sorry *ss again. Hopefully over the weekend I can get caught up on all things Civ3 (and yes, I have completed AU 501! ).

Great to see you, Theseus

quote: * NDGoW have invited us to there little party. GOOD (I think it's real, btw). We need ongoing discord in the world... on that note, btw, the bit about spying and Vondrack freaking out in the public is brilliant, and more of the same should be encouraged.

Like NYE, I have a lot of respect for Vondrack, but that was funny. Especially Arn's 72pt headline

quote: * I'm OK with us participating militarily, especially as considered using primarily existing upgraded units. I haven't seen, however, a suggestion that RP's participation could count towards ours... in other words, whereas MZ suggested 30 Cavs from GS, how about instead 20 GS Cavs and 15-20 RP Conquistadors? I concur, btw, with CH that this will give us the highest chances of grabbing the GWs that we are targeting.

The conq's won't be here in time - we will hopefully have Electronics by the time RP complete Navigation. Togas was keen on the idea of involvement to make diplomatic inroads with NDGoW, though Arnelos has been scheming up a backstab plan (see log).

quote: * I don;t care what happens to Lego... damaged or destroyed, the key is to turn Legoland into a war-torn hell, where ND and GoW are compelled to commit serious forces to protect whatever they want to keep from all, including each other. I suggest that we not plan on retaining any territory there at all, other than as military bases.

My initial thoughs were that a destroyed Lego would be owned by GoW/ND who could then declare a joint domination victory to end the game if they wanted. The other teams could object, but it would be checkmate if GoWND wanted it - just a matter of time before the others are eliminated.

However, the small black shape called "GoW's half of Bob" suggests otherwise. The miserable prize of about 30 tiles and one iron that GoW won for their efforts in the Great Bobian War says that ND want to win the game for themselves. Even LEGO have more of ND's luxuries than GoW. Check the chat when I chucked that one in : " * MZ glares at Zayxus"

Unless GAUL dragged on till Marines, ND and GoW would have to fight each other after Lego, and as T says, their priority for troop strengths must be Bob, not Lego. If Lego had been destroyed, there'd be a power vacuum for Vox, RP, and GS to cash in on. I'm thinking resources from the GS pov - obviously not production, but what an opportunity for Vox and RP!

As things stand we have an excellent chance of missing any number of resources from Coal, Rubber, Oil, Aluminium, and Uranium. Hopefully the distrib will not be as extreme as AU501, but we will probably be short of something. Legoland may contain these, including the one which we get to see in 10 turns.

If Lego is turned into a war-torn hell, whoever is left on it will not be able to defend its resources as well as its current occupant.

quote: * Also included in considering a space race is the potential relocation of RP (to where?), and, as I think I saw suggested, the dismantlement of certain of our core cities to allow for monster metros.

The worker pumps could be disbanded, and maybe some others, but where possible I'd favour reducing pop in coastal cities so they only use sea tiles, leaving all land tiles to the metros.

The closeness of Arashi and Tempest - two of our highest production cities could be a problem. If Arashi built the ToE (major, major analysys of this on the Smiths thread), it woudn't matter losing that wonder once we'd got the techs, and we could build the FP in Eliopolis if/when RP move to Lego or Bob.

	14-02-2004 20:57									#107
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus Hey sleepy. I've been thinking of something else too, btw... isn't GAUL inevitable in a way, as long as we participate in some fashion? Does that preclude us from somehow telegraphing to Lego what is about to happen? Don;t start yelling at me everyone! I just mean that, heck, don;t we won't Legoland to be the biggest slog possible for NDGoW? Deceit and trickery, indeed.

As the Civ 2 advisors would say, I disagree

Lego ought to have at least their east coast covered. If we tip them off, the chance of a NDGoW landing ought to be completely nil. That's even before my lack of enthusiasm for backstabbing.

On the first point, this brings us to Arrian's position. He is arguing firmly that we are not militarily needed in the assault, that they have enough power to damage Lego on their own, and that our full participation would only assist their gains and their power. We could participate by viewing cities for troop levels and exposing the map.

He's right in sofar as we are not needed to damage Lego, unless they dare not throw all their units at Lego because they fear each other. I quipped in the chat that 30 units each from NDGOW would leave 20 units each to hit us. Not that they can hit us, but they can hit each other. They also fear us, and knowing that we need Lego damaged too can say that they probably won't go ahead without us, knowing that we wouldn't want this chance missed to damage Lego.

If we call their bluff and they go ahead then : Their war lasts longer, we are spared the hit to our economy, get our wonders and develop industrial power. We'll have no chance of Legonian resources.

If they don't go ahead, they'll have to either hit each other, or sit and wait for Marines and Tanks with expensive standing armies and the likes of Hot Enamel and Ghengis suffering acute peace-weariness and making like uncomfortable at home. This leaves Lego in the clear to complete a sea-wall, GA to the ToE and Hoover and generally go super-Nova.

	14-02-2004 21:20									#108
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I agree with CH and vmxa1.

its in our best interests that lego get damaged severely. if we told them something was afoot, chances are they could stop it entirely by blocking the coasts, worst situation for us. I agree that once no one will trade a tech with them or the mood in chat changes (vondrack actually showed up in the main GoW chatroom while we were talking the other day) they will know something is up. I imagine GoW is trying to work the attack nd instead angle with them.

	14-02-2004 22:11									#109
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It seems the big questions is how much would it take to get some in roads to Lego. I am dubious that 60 units from Bob would be enough to get the job done at this point.

Bobians could muster more, but at what cost? They must have some concerns about each other. At least enough to not leave their land unprotected. They also have to worry that Lego will opt for a counter invasion to do all the damage they can.

So for all those reason, they will not send all they have and want us to pony up. This does many things for them. It eliminates any chance we could hit them during that phase. Yes we know we can't, but do they? It makes us less able to keep rushing ahead in production and research as we will have to spend resources to fight and to grab land.

I would think Lego is unbreachable after rails are up. They will just have too much to make it worth while.

If Lego gets most of the wonders at this juncture they win, if we get some, it will not preclude someone else from winning. This means the Bobians can afford to have us beat them to them, but not Lego.

Any war between Bobians would be the end of either of them winning, unless it came after Lego was crippled.

	14-02-2004 22:22									#110
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I just read the RP post. That is a very dangerous gamble. If it were to fail, we would be out of the game for good. No more deals anywhere.

I doubt it has any chance. We do not have the troops to assault Bob.

We will be getting the SP and MT to upgrade to join the fray anyway.

We are hoping that GoW/ND will take a significant pounding during the war on Lego.

Its only appeal is that is solves the problem of how to reduce all three of the top teams. That is, if it worked. I do not think we need a go for broke shot right now. We have some decent prospects.

	14-02-2004 22:26									#111
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i agree. we don't have the manpower to do anything like cripple the 2 bobs. and rp has much much less than we do. that gambit would only succeed in costing us any chance at anything. I like the fantasy, but we can't do it right now, nor probably ever. need to join one side or another, can't do both simultaneously.

	14-02-2004 22:58									#112
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RP is naive.

More importantly, we need to be thinking how to take out ND's production power after Lego is dismantled. Conquistadors might then be extremely useful pillagers.

* Theseus senses an Evil Plan coming on.

	14-02-2004 23:08									#113
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Opportunistic, is what we have to be. I like the idea of maybe pillagers. We just have to see what unfolds.

At lest we are looking to have some excitement and fun. Better than what was going on, when I first looked in.
Ch really did a great job and sleepy was bucking up the morale.
I know there have been others, but those two come to mind first.

	15-02-2004 02:57									#114
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quote: the likes of Hot Enamel and Ghengis suffering acute peace-weariness

	15-02-2004 04:42									#115
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Query:

1. If Lego builds Magellan's this turn and thus enters their GA, does that change our joint war plans?

2. I looked at the map and I'm curious as to how GoW/ND will cross without giving lego a 1 turn's heads up (minimum), for that matter, it applies to us as well.

3. If they do have a one turn's heads up, unless there is to be some deception involving quite a few galleons headed to different land zones, lego will be able to shield their coast line. What I mean is, the galleons can only reach what 4 squares or so of coastline, easily held by knights on roads.

	15-02-2004 05:50									#116
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel Query: 1. If Lego builds Magellan's this turn and thus enters their GA, does that change our joint war plans? 2. I looked at the map and I'm curious as to how GoW/ND will cross without giving lego a 1 turn's heads up (minimum), for that matter, it applies to us as well. 3. If they do have a one turn's heads up, unless there is to be some deception involving quite a few galleons headed to different land zones, lego will be able to shield their coast line. What I mean is, the galleons can only reach what 4 squares or so of coastline, easily held by knights on roads.

1-no it will just hurt GoW and ND more and allow us to burn up their GA. They (Lego) will probably have to go to mobilization.

2/3 are the problem. I have not seen any proposals form the Bobians about how they plan to pull this off.

I was going to add a screen of the coast, but I forot the deal within the private forum.

	15-02-2004 05:57									#117
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Anyway it would seem that Lego will have some notice and see everyone coming as the ships gets close.

A number of fleets will have to be put together and come from several directions to force them to split up, unless we can find hole that can't be plug in time.

Coming through Panama Vox to Invoice would be nice, especially if Vox was to join in.

Don't forget that we lost the Lighthouse with Magnetism.

It is for sure that some serious plans need to be formed and real soon if this is to fly.

	15-02-2004 17:25									#118
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First off, we couldn't get there sooner than 15 turns. It would take us over 10 turns to get all our existing 5 galleys into position, then there would have to be more galleys plus frigate/ironclad cover. The latter would be better, but depends on coal. The former would need SP from Bob sooner than if we just needed Muskets/Cav.

The Bobians would have to get a foothold in early, so we could get an easier landing. Or ... if they are dancing around getting blocked (huh) by Lego and we show up on the west, we might get to land and take strength from the east.

I guess the first thing we need is some timing ideas from GoW.

	15-02-2004 19:00									#119
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The other thing is exploration. I had to make a decision on the northern galleys last turn and I sent two north, in line with the previous consensus on exploration.

Two other galleys are already heading south, en-route to explore the SE ocean, in search of 'Australia'.

We may/will probably have to scrap exploration plans to scrape a fleet together.

We also need RP to add to their own wall to free-up our own units. They have been asked about this - we have a dozen spare units at the moment.

I think we should look to pitch a modest bid of 12 Cav + 8 Muskets - enough to open a second front without hitting our building plans too hard. This will reduce naval outlay to units with teeth - hopefully Ironclads prebuilt during steam, with builds timed to allow frigate-fallback if we have no coal.

	15-02-2004 23:31									#120
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Now that is a dose of reality. I suspect that GoW has no idea of our true conditon and ability to engage. Of course we can't afford to tip them to it just yet.

That is why they need toshare any plan they have in some detail, in order for us to know if it is possible and if we can contribute.