16-02-2004 02:06									#121
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a few ideas

Are any of the outlying galleys in a position to gauge if there is a western lego naval picket line, say at about 5-6 tiles west of lego coast?

We need some answers from gwnd

1. What is the target date?
2. How they intend to get around picket ships/land blockers of lego.
2b. Lego is average to us, which would indicate that they can block at least as much land as us, and they are in republic, so no interior garrisons are needed.

How would we do it? Kill the picket ships then land a turn later, hoping that we killed enough pickets to create a large landing zone, thinking that they couldn't cover every single square?

Hmm. This is fun. What about shipping out a formation of galleys (in pairs or threes) like:

x
o
o
x
o
o
x


I would think that would spread the coverage pretty widely, especially if both ND and GoW do it.

And we might, even if we don't intend to drop anything off early, ship out a couple empty galleons just to tie up some forces for a turn or two (so GOWND could land)

	16-02-2004 02:22									#122
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I've done a rough count of lego coastal tiles, they have in excess of 100 not including city tiles.

We are average to Lego militarily.

Currently we have:

3 warriors
8 spears
27 pikes
24 knights
8 cats
5 galleys
6 war chariots
14 medieval infantry


As has been stated, Lego undoutedly has stronger defensive units, which would give them a boost, muskets instead of pikes. If they trigger there GA this turn, they won't have any use for their NMs anymore, perhaps they are already fully upgraded. Ditto on the cats, probably have them all upgraded to cannon. Probably have caravels instead of galleys.

So I would estimate that they could cover perhaps 60 tiles fully with units. Of course then we have workers to contend with as well. Can we spread the coverage thin enough to make a single landing, let alone 3?

I don't know.

what about vox as brutus? If we could get them to join us, they could open up a landing for us and we could brute force it through Invoice.

	16-02-2004 04:54									#123
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Vox could make a possible land route for GoW if they can't get a toe on Lego Major. It would suck units into Invoice leaving space for other landings elsewhere.

About our Navy - it wouldn't be large enough to split up. Maybe one stack sinking a couple of pickets to leave them in the dark then head for the coast.

	16-02-2004 05:31									#124
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We probably want to say something to GoW soon, to keep the diplo going. Here's a draft ... and it doesn't say anything about 'how many troops'.

quote: MZ, The chat was good the other day, and there has been much discussion since on our forum. We haven't reached a unanimous position on the proposal, and there is some opposition to the notion that GS troops are really needed to damage Lego, but at this stage there is a possibility that a GS majority would approve the sending of troops to contribute to a Grand Alliance to Undermine Lego. Would you be able to offer an an indication of the timescales you had in mind, so we could consider planning possiblites? In the light of the window of operations, we expect you would probably want to get started asap after Mil Trad. For our part, we could deliver an Expeditionary Force to the West of Lego not before around 15 turns, before which we could assist with city investigation, were an eastern assault already under way. Some at GS feel that Lego may be able to block an eastern landing, in which case a new threat from the west may help to divert troops, but there is also the possibility of landing in Lego Minor, chez Vox, and blasting through Invoice. The least effect would be to pull units into Invoice, making landings easier elsewhere.

	16-02-2004 18:54									#125
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Good message, Cort.

The reality is that we are not prepared for this operation (deliberately so. We were settling down to build). We need time to set into position, and meanwhile, the Bobians need to get moving. Hopefully, between what you told him in chat, and this PM, MZ will come to understand that.

I guess Hurricane's first build after Copernicus (if we get it) should be a galleon, eh? Let's get our galleys upgraded ASAP. I think we're set on ToE/Hoover in Arashi/Tempest, so EotS could build a few pikes for musket upgrade.

Do we have another east coast city that could switch over to a galleon and complete it in a reasonable timeframe? Then, coupled with the 2 galleys coming down the east coast, we would have 4 ships ready. Hurricane can punch out a 5th (it can do 4-turn galleons, I think*), and we would have 20 units of carrying capacity. How does 6 muskets, 2 knights (our elites), and 12 Cavalry sound?

By the way, can we get rid of those warriors? What in the world are we saving them for, when we have enough units to cover the sea wall? Surely we don't intend to upgrade them to guerrilas?

-Arrian

* - Copernicus in 6, 1st galleon in 10, second in 14. Hmm, not fast enough, is it? See, this is where we get into trouble. The whole point of disbanding most of our fleet was that we weren't going off on any more adventures. No sooner do we do it then we get sucked back into an overseas invasion.

	16-02-2004 19:25									#126
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When we get the next save, Tornado could switch to complete a Galleon in 3 turns (was CH in 5) and Sufa in 4 turns (was Lib in 8). Blizzard will complete Harb in 6 turns.

Sufa and Tornado have habors too.

We have 3 elite WC's but only 1 elite Knight, and only 11 units spare from the wall until RP build some more - assuming they haven't switched to mkts like we suggested. With the galley cover gone for upgrading and exploring, the only way our units can be safely replaced on RP's wall is if they take our catapults there in a faux war. Fortunately, our cats have been shuffling north.

	16-02-2004 19:39									#127
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I personally think building improvements is a far higher priority than military at the moment. Any contribution to ventures against Lego come out of what we can spare from our defences and from our build queues, without compromising our economic state.

I don't really care how well ND / GoW do against Lego - I just want the three of them to have to divert resources towards fighting a war in a major way. We can't make any significant contribution to that without screwing our economy for our third major war in rapid succession - so lets just make a token effort, maybe a few galleons, possibly even empty, to create a gap for ND / GoW to gain a beachhead. Then we get ToE, Hoover, and try and get a head start on finding the oil (I'm guessing replacaeable parts will be researched ery quickly once the war starts). We're going to need a bit of a lead to get enough infantry and tanks to mount a meaningful defence before marines arrive.

However, I think this war currently is our best chance in the game - we need to do everything we can to encourage ND / GoW to go for it, and then do the bare minimum once they are committed. But I think we're all agreed on that anyway.

	16-02-2004 19:50									#128
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Yes, the faster option would be floating a few empty galleys out quickly to co-ordinate with GoWND to draw forces west and ease their landing. Once they're on, the only thing stopping them is fear of committing units from home because of each other and us. If Lego attack the galleons, we get a happy boost, and tell GoWND our fleet is sunk.

	16-02-2004 19:53									#129
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11 units to spare...

Sounds like 3 galleon loads to me (2 upgraded galleys + a new galleon in Hurricane). 4 muskets, 1 knight, 7 cav.

I like that for a token effort. I totally agree that we should not compromise our economy for this. This is ND/GoW's baby.

-Arrian

	16-02-2004 19:57									#130
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token effort yes.

At this point I think we tell gwnd whatever they want to hear in order to get an attack going, within reason of course. We won't lie and say that we'll have 30 cavs to land, but that we will land a significant contingent on the west.

and if they don't give us Mil trad, I'm not opposed to landing mi's and pikes and knights. The garbage crew to divert forces from the east.



We build 2 empty galleons and send them 2 squares ahead of the rest of the fleet. Lego kills them with frigates. We don't lose more than the galleons but we can tell gwnd that they were full, thus our 28 unit army, wink wink, was reduced to 20 before landing.

	16-02-2004 19:58									#131
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my typing skills have deteriorated significantly. I make a post and everything in it has just been said! haha.

	16-02-2004 20:13									#132
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One consideration is how to get GoW to be able to deliver Medicine by the time we complete Electricity. They won't have cash for ToG, as they'll still owe us 200, and need upgrade money. It doesn't make sense for them to research ToG, and we don't want to spend our ToG on Mil Trad, so we might need to give them credit terms on it. Us giving them credit on tech makes it makes it less likely for us to backstab them, so may help our cause.

I don't see any way they'll accept us demanding Mil Trad for free, so we could just say that we're going with Knights and Pikes because we don't want to shell out on a tech that was never in our plans. They might offer us SP for free though.

I thought of the 'Lego sank our fleet' excuse, but the powergraph would say otherwise.

	16-02-2004 21:13									#133
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Good point and we don't want to be in the lies are us business anyway.

We just give them the unvarnished facts. Here is what we can do and are willing to do. They will either see that as better than nothing or think we are trying to pull a fast one.

If they are serious (and they should be), then they should take what we can offer.

	16-02-2004 21:27									#134
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Medicine is 2400 beakers. If GoW can manage 200bpt that's 12 turns, just under the 13 turns we estimate for Steam + Electricity.
They have evey incentive to finish Medicine if Steam Power and Coal visibility are on the end of it.

Maybe GoW sould save some cash after getting MT and then take ToG on credit or part-credit so they can keep up with us.

At somepoint we might want to ask GoW what rate they can put into Medicine.

	16-02-2004 21:35									#135
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On the ND side, Vulture has hopefully flattered ND by sending them a counter-offer in German (800g for Physics). See log. Arrian, you had started doing the ND diplo but as Vulture has some German skills we should probably try to use that, if that's OK with everyone.

I think we should try and get ND cash for Magnets and maybe ToG too. There's no hurry for Nationalism.

Vox complicates things - MZ wants to try and get access to their tech but I fear bringing them up in tech level- especially getting them ahead of Lego. Apart from the Lego risk, it could screw up timing plans for trades and prebuilds.

	16-02-2004 22:30									#136
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Yeah, I posted elsewhere that Vulture is clearly the guy for ND, since he knows German. I'm fine with the change, though it was a bit odd on the timing (I had *just* become ambassador to ND). No biggie.

Definitely go for cash from ND/GoW for the remaining medieval techs. We simply don't care about MT - if we ARE to get it, I think we can argue we should get it on the cheap. We don't have to push this too hard, because I doubt GoW has that much free money anyway, but I don't want to just cave immediately either.

As for Vox... I think they should be treated as a subset of Lego. I think we should remind MZ that, while bringing Vox up in tech *might* get us 1 industrial age tech, it will also get Lego 1 industrial age tech - possibly one that could do BAD things to an invasion force (nationalism). With 3 teams cooperating, 1 tech is not that big a deal. For an isolated Lego, it's HUGE.

-Arrian

	16-02-2004 22:44									#137
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The thing is, Vox might want to consider which horse to back in the long run. How much territory do they stand to gain under Lego? What could the conquerors offer them instead?

	16-02-2004 23:38									#138
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okay, I finally got to this thread, after my holiday... a lot has already been said, of course. But still, some of my opinions:

1. We can't keep out of this war, period. We need to participate, not only diplomatically, but also seeing our resource situation. If we go in, we need a contract in which we somehow are guaranteed resources, either by corrupt land, or by trading to us.

2. We can't let GoW + ND split up Lego, no matter how bloody the war is. If Lego gets eliminated, we need a piece of the cake. But, most preferably, Lego lives, only damaged. I'ev read a couple of times that it doesn't matter if Lego is destroyed or not, that is not true. If Lego gets destroyed, ND will pay GoW with Lego land, and we will be on #3 (out of 4 teams), whereas now I consider us #2 (out of 6 teams) but fastly dropping behind ND.

So, either we fully commit to this war, and send not a token force, but a large force (not 20 or 30 cavs, but 60), or we somehow make sure GoW and ND can't destroy Lego and split the spoils.

3. Our invasion forces need either a settler, or a couple o workers, to make sure we can have some chance of defending our selves. (workers to add to a captured city, to get it above size 6)

4. RP needs to stay out for the moment, but have to be considered by RP and GoW as part of our participation. They can investigate cities for us. RP doing investigation = less commited troops from us.

5. In no way will we pay for Mil Trad. We don't need the tech, if they want to get us in, we are given it for free. No trust thing, this has to be a necessary condition... no credits, nor good will, or whatever.

6. SP is about the same: them giving it to us, is a fair price... sure, they trust us, but we can't do anything with SP. Muskets are not offensive units, we can't invade Bob with muskets. Coal and rubber is what we need, not SP. So, it may be a token of trust, it may not be part of our gains in this war.

7. That said, what do we want to gain? Obviously, Lego out of the picture would be good, but not if their place is taken by a stronger GoW and / or ND. Land is not really an option, or it should be a way of transporting RP off our island. And their land is rather shitty. We could do a palace jump (I'm fairly certain GoW is looking for on, they will not raize cities, but try to hold on to anything captured), our FP placement is meant to allow a palace jump to Bob, so also to Lego. But that means we need most of Lego, not just one or two harbor cities.

Other gains? the promise GoW and ND will battle it out? Hmmm... not certain. Remember that when there was first talk of us joining them to destroy RP, one of the points in chat was that Lego was next. That clause is still active between them, this war is planned. They are right that Lego doesn't have a complete sea wall, where we have, and after RR it will be a lot messier to invade them. They have planned this all along, and I bet that it took them much too long to drive us off Bob, or they would have invaded Lego already.

So be careful with jumping into this war, without any clear gains for us. If we can enter without too much economical effort, ToE and Hoover are safe. Those 2 wonders are worth 1200 gold for me, by far. But they won't win us the game unless we have some plans for the future how to use them...

8. So, in the end, I say we enter the war, with a smaller force then they want us too (the 4 galleons worth of units should be fine), and the promise that we will pay RP to do some investigation for the alliance. (e.g. put 800 gold apart for that). That should be enough... I haven't read that GoW needs our participation, they just need assurances we will not invade them.

9. PS: GoW and ND do not need to protect themselves from each other, at least not atm. They didn't do it during the Bob-war either. See in the AAR that GoW thought we were a problem, and wanted to protect their cities against an invasion from us, not from ND. they marched through ND territory with almost all of their riders, when ND was very busy fighting RP... they could have back stabbed and taken them out nearly completely, but didn't. So expect that ND and GoW, once they are certain we're no threat, will land more troops then what they are saying now... I'm thinking of possibly 50+ riders, 50+ ansars, and a couple of muskets. Getting us in is just a diversion, a sure way to get us to keep to our NAP.

If in negoations, we hear something like "what you conquer is yours", we know what is happening: we will conquer 1 or 2 cities, and are just there to ensure Bob can be safe, and Lego will focus on us instead of on the Bobians. I wouldn't be surprised if our invasion plans are going to be leaked to Lego by GoW. So in this respect, do not mention where exactly we're going to land, as you can be sure Lego will be there, blocking our sites.

DeepO

	17-02-2004 00:58									#139
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I have said all along that they will not go at each other until they have locked down all the other threats.

If they get most or all of Lego, they will not even need to come for us, unless we could space ship them.

I am not so worried about them leaking us to Lego, that would kill any future deals.

Our two objectives are to 1- slow down Lego 2- try to get some resources out of the conflict.

If we could even move RP to Lego, that would be good. Any land there is a potential for resources and returning Stormia is going to allow us to do better.

	17-02-2004 01:07									#140
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We're better off getting rent from RP up there unless they build markets and courthouses - which could be a while.

	17-02-2004 01:14									#141
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quote: Originally posted by vmxa1 I have said all along that they will not go at each other until they have locked down all the other threats.

Very true, but this point seems to be forgotten here... we guess both of them have 50 3-move units already, once they're sure of our stance, nothing is keeping them from invading Lego with all of their forces. We need somehow to take that into account, either by being able to land a lot more forces on Legoland ourselves.

Once Lego is gone, we have a window of ~20 turns before we van be attacked on that side, as no GoW or ND ships are on our East. That measn we only need half of our Sea wall, the other half can be protecting what little spoils we get from the Lego adventure. If Lego is losing too badly, we need to be prepared to send more troops!

quote: I am not so worried about them leaking us to Lego, that would kill any future deals.

I'm not worried... but it is a possibility. I'm sure GoW would have thought that breaking deals with us would have killed any future deals, however they have done it 7 times before the NAP issue... I'm sorry to say it, but GS are wussies when it comes to holding grudges, we are the softies of the PTWDG

quote: Our two objectives are to 1- slow down Lego 2- try to get some resources out of the conflict.

I agree, but let these be clear goals, and let all the rest depend on these. Otherwise we risk not accomplishing anything, just helping others win.

DeepO

	17-02-2004 01:16									#142
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus We're better off getting rent from RP up there unless they build markets and courthouses - which could be a while.

Not if we plan on disbanding Arashi, timing it so a FP prebuild is ready in Elipolis. Extra tiles = extra commerce, so if we can get RP to dislocate, it is worth the rent.

DeepO

	17-02-2004 01:57									#143
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Ultimately, yes - we want N.Stormia productively ours. I was thinking short-term about RP. One day we can disband Arashi with 195s on a prebuild in Eliopolis. Hmm, Eli finishes the lib soon ...

What we don't want do is reverse our builder-policy and go heavy on military. Disbanding the galleys was always risky, but we've benefitted from the extra gpt meanwhile. We have played to our strengths - commercial output and security - and the policy can pay off if we grab the ToE and give us a tech lead to aid our security.

I think it's likely that GoW-ND will hit each other after Lego, each seeking GS as ally - unless Lego's still a player. GoW would be our best ally because (1) ND have the land (2) GoW-GS could pincer ND (3) ND have less Naval potential to threaten us as they have no cities on our side of Bob's coast.

	17-02-2004 04:08									#144
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Yeah I'm starting to think that the less we invest in the hit on Lego the better. I've been looking at the map and GoW will need to take some of Lego's land so they don't loose out on later resources, right now they only have 2 tiles where oil could appear... Also both GoW and ND have a shed load of mounted units which will in time be redundant. The reality is that they are likely to attack Lego with or without us and then likely to take any land we take too.
Perhaps our involvement is simply to stop us aiding Lego as we did RP or perhaps to prevent a land on bob which could be devestating if they're all over there fighting Lego. They know we think Lego is the best bet for winning and are playing on this.

It would be interesting to bluff them and see if they'd do it without even an assurance from us that we wouldn't interfere but we really do want them to do it though.

It's also worth noting that the less we give to help gownd the harder it'll be for them. As always war benefits the bystander most.

	17-02-2004 04:09									#145
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Cort, I'm the first to agree that we need to continue on the path we took, building our economy and science (nearly done), and then our production. We should not switch to full time military before we're ready.

However, we simply can't let ND and GoW take Legoland, and divide it, as Vox will surely follow. If we let that happen, the game is over for us, no matter if ND and GoW decide to battle it out between theirselves. If Lego starts to crumble, we need to have some sort of alternative plan to make sure we hold significant ground on Lego... seeing as our sea wall is not necessary in that scenario (as there won't be any ships on our East), we can use those units.

But I only see this as a backup plan, first priority would be to make this a bloody war, in which no side really gains a lot, with minimal effort from our side. If that fails, we have to seriously increase the effort (by that time, we would be around completing ToE, BTW, if the war starts in 10-15 turns, we will know how it goes around turn 20-25.), or we lose.

DeepO

	17-02-2004 04:44									#146
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Can we get RP to build some conquistadors and land them against ND when the war begins, they may be able to raise a few good cities with their range over any tiles.

	17-02-2004 04:46									#147
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Unfortunately, ND will have 3 move units, on road network, meaning 9 tiles of movement. Any kind of invasions needs to be big enough to withstand that... I don't think RP would be up to it.

I'd love to see it happen, though... us helping ND, while RP fights them

DeepO

	17-02-2004 05:23									#148
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quote: Originally posted by DeepO Cort, I'm the first to agree that we need to continue on the path we took, building our economy and science (nearly done), and then our production. We should not switch to full time military before we're ready. However, we simply can't let ND and GoW take Legoland, and divide it, as Vox will surely follow. If we let that happen, the game is over for us, no matter if ND and GoW decide to battle it out between theirselves. If Lego starts to crumble, we need to have some sort of alternative plan to make sure we hold significant ground on Lego... seeing as our sea wall is not necessary in that scenario (as there won't be any ships on our East), we can use those units. But I only see this as a backup plan, first priority would be to make this a bloody war, in which no side really gains a lot, with minimal effort from our side. If that fails, we have to seriously increase the effort (by that time, we would be around completing ToE, BTW, if the war starts in 10-15 turns, we will know how it goes around turn 20-25.), or we lose. DeepO

I think that is the crux of the matter. We want to see Lego lose some land or at least have to back up a ton on their research and infrasructure.

We don't mind if they are reduce considerably, as long as we get a piece of the land.

If it is to be just a monkey wrench in Legos gears and we do not have put much up, then great.

If it is a huge beating for Lego and we are left out, then it will be very rough.

I agree we can avoid a huge commmitment to start, until we see how things are going.

	17-02-2004 05:31									#149
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I haven't fully thought it through, but my simplistic view is that we have a serious shot at a win if 1) Lego is taken out of the race, 2) ND and GoW's offensive forces are burned, and 3) ND's production power is severely diminished.

#1 can hopefully be arranged.

#2 will hopefully be take place on Legoland... but further, can we suck them into North Stormia for a scorched earth destruction? Much less see them burn up each other?

#3 is the interesting one... for instance, what if, pre-RR completion, we could maneuver to a 1-2 turn mass pillaging by RP? With us razing just several key cities?

It ain't over, it ain't over, it ain't over.

	17-02-2004 06:49									#150
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edit: I know this is out of place, but T's comments always get me pumped.

One point about RP in the post steam era.

ND hasn't built anything on the east coast of bob. Whats the chance that they are going to have a decent road network going there, much less a decent rail system. I imagine they have spotters every other 3rd or 4th square but they won't have a full force. Think of what some Conqui's could do to that! They land a few cavs to take out the spotters nearby and 10-15 conqu's will be able to run wild pillaging everything. ND has a real weakness on their eastern flank and our one ally has a potent weapon to be unleashed.