26-05-2004 03:24									#61
	Tired of ads?

I'm on the edge of the St. Paul's (Toronto) riding.

The candidates:
A) Carolyn Bennet (Liberal) (Incumbent)
B) Barry Cline (Conservative)
C) Norm Tobias (NDP)
D) Peter Elgie (Green)

Some information about my riding. And more!

The way I see the choices:
A) if you want more of the crap we have;
B) if you want more of the crap we had;
C) if you believe they can change anything;
D) if you want change and a party that will follow through with it.

Of course, Green doesn't have a prayer in my riding (affluent, heavily Jewish), but they always get my vote.

Last edited by dejon on 26-05-2004 at 03:49

	26-05-2004 04:01									#62
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I live in this riding, not too far from Forest Hill. I have to share the local Loblaws with hordes of disgustingly stupid and tasteless yuppies. Having said that, the market has some nice foreign stuff in it because of them - although I did buy what purported to be pickled onions (a Yorkshire delicacy) but turned out to be turds.

	26-05-2004 04:50									#63
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Libs 35%
Tories 26%
NDP 18%
Greens 5%


Tories are over 30% in other polls.

I predict that should the Tories get 31%, and the BQ hold up in Quebec, that the Liberals and the NDP will still fall a few short of forming a minority government.

	26-05-2004 04:51									#64
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Bloc 50%
Libs 28%
NDP 8%
Tories 7%

Yow!

Sweep for the BQ.

I didn't include that in my figures.

	26-05-2004 04:53									#65
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I'm in the riding of Vancouver South, formerly Vancouver /South Burnaby.

We have several candidates in the riding, a former Premier of British Columbia, Bev Meslo, whom I've never heard of and a Dentist and sessional instructer at UBC for the Conservatives.

Pics forthcoming.

http://www.ujjaldosanjh.ca/

That's one.

http://votevictor.ca/

That's two.

(Thanks joncha!)

http://www.vcn.bc.ca/vsbndp/

Last edited by Ben Kenobi on 26-05-2004 at 05:49

	26-05-2004 05:00									#66
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by Arrian VOTE DUMBASS!

What party is he in?

	26-05-2004 05:05									#67
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Bev Meslo is the NDP candidate for Vancouver South. She was a moderate leftist mature student on the AMS council at UBC, and a personal friend of mine. She ran for the "socialist caucus" in the NDP leadership race (which shocked those of us who knew her at UBC). I'd suggest that you vote for her, BK, but she's strongly pro-choice.

	26-05-2004 05:07									#68
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She gained some notoriety in the leadership campaign for saying she believed that marijuana should be "grown like grass."

Here's her pic.

Attachment: bev1.jpg
This has been downloaded 55 time(s).

	26-05-2004 05:12									#69
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I'm actually torn over who I would vote for in Vancouver/ South.

Check the other candidates and you'll see why.

I'm a personal friend of the Heritage Party candidate.

	26-05-2004 05:14									#70
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quote: mature student on the AMS council at UBC,

I've had numerous clashes with the AMS council. The fact that she served there recently only further dissuades me from voting for Meslo.

	26-05-2004 05:16									#71
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Using the election forecaster, http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html

this is what I figure:

(have to adjust for Quebec.)


BC

6 LIB
4 NDP
24 CON


Alberta:

25 CON
1 LIB

Ontario

54 LIB
3 NDP
46 CON

(Dropped the Conservatives 1 for Ottawa Centre.)

32.1/33.9/33.9

Prairies: (Manitoba & Saskatchewan)

11 LIB
10 NDP
7 CON

Quebec:

8 LIB
66 BLOQ
1 CON

Maritimes:

26 LIB
3 NDP
3 CON

North:

2 LIB
1 CON

Totals:

108 LIB
20 NDP
108 CON
66 BQ

Last edited by Ben Kenobi on 26-05-2004 at 05:41

	26-05-2004 05:18									#72
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Ujjal is a jackhole. I wasted a vote on him two (provincial) elections ago when I lived near Main & King Ed.

	26-05-2004 05:19									#73
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi I've had numerous clashes with the AMS council. The fact that she served there recently only further dissuades me from voting for Meslo.

It wasn't that recently... I think she left in 2000/01. Not that you'd vote for her anyway.

	26-05-2004 05:20									#74
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Using the election forecaster, http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html

The problem with this one is it doesn't take riding-by-riding votes into account.

	26-05-2004 05:27									#75
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Yes it does...

Try it out.

If you take the percentages, then the seats more heavily weighted in the last election towards the Liberals will stay Liberal, even when you drop the percentage.

The only assumption you are making is that the trends in the province will remain the same for all the ridings in the province.

Anyway, it's better than idle speculation. Trying to come up with a proper matrix for each province is some work, but quite worthwhile.

	26-05-2004 05:32									#76
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quote: I think she left in 2000/01.

Then perhaps she is responsible for many of the shenanigans.

Our feud goes back to 1999.

	26-05-2004 05:36									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Using the election forecaster, http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html

I think the Election Prediction Project that dejon posted is a better predictor of the final outcome of the election than guessing at voter migration. There are some ridings where local issues suggest very big swings between parties that are quite different from regional or national trends. That said I have used the UBC election forcaster in the previous two federal elections, you can get some very interesting results.

	26-05-2004 05:47									#78
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Then perhaps she is responsible for many of the shenanigans. Our feud goes back to 1999.

Then I was probably on the other side of the shenanigans in question as well.


...and here's Bev's website:

http://www.vcn.bc.ca/vsbndp/

	26-05-2004 05:50									#79
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quote: Then I was probably on the other side of the shenanigans in question as well.

Were you at UBC then?

	26-05-2004 05:54									#80
	Increase Your PM Length

LOLLOLO!!!11111
Canadars have elerctions! They rreal uselles
LLLLLOL

	26-05-2004 05:55									#81
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Using the election forecaster, http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html this is what I figure: Ontario 54 LIB 3 NDP 46 CON

Putting my numbers into the matrix I get for Ontario:
LIB 75
NDP 5
CON 26

The NDP has a potential shot at probably 10-15 ridings but I suspect they will not pull through as people vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative government.

	26-05-2004 05:55									#82
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Were you at UBC then?

Yes, which is why I'm pretty sure I know about the shenanigans of which you speak.

	26-05-2004 06:00									#83
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quote: Putting my numbers into the matrix I get for Ontario: LIB 75 NDP 5 CON 26 The NDP has a potential shot at probably 10-15 ridings but I suspect they will not pull through as people vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative government.

My numbers are based on the polls showing the LIB and CON close in Ontario due to the recent backlash against the LIB provincial government deficit and increased taxes.

What are your poll numbers based on?

	26-05-2004 06:01									#84
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Yes, which is why I'm pretty sure I know about the shenanigans of which you speak.

this is going to be SOME polymeet.

I wonder if I know you in RL.

	26-05-2004 06:12									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Flinx The NDP has a potential shot at probably 10-15 ridings but I suspect they will not pull through as people vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative government.

	26-05-2004 06:15									#86
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi this is going to be SOME polymeet. I wonder if I know you in RL.

Let's just say, if you invite Stephanie Grey along, I'm not coming.

	26-05-2004 06:20									#87
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Welcome, my Canadian friends.... welcome to the wonderful world of voting for the lesser of two evils. The numb exasperation will begin in 4...3...2...1...now.

	26-05-2004 06:23									#88
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quote: if you invite Stephanie Grey along, I'm not coming.

Rest assured, I will not.

And you've just proven you may very well know me in RL.

	26-05-2004 06:23									#89
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quote: Originally posted by Flinx The NDP has a potential shot at probably 10-15 ridings but I suspect they will not pull through as people vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative government.

As long as Layton sticks to the Liberals=Conservatives strategy, the NDP will win big (relatively speaking). If they fall back to on the Conservatives=Reform=brown shirts strategy, they'll be lucky to win more than 3.

The NDP supporter's failed "tactical voting" strategy dates to the free trade debate. The "lesson" of Mulroney's win was that NDPers should have voted for the anti-free trade candidate with the best chance of winning their riding. Then Chretien won big, and put a lie to that strategy. It's about time moderate lefties abandoned it.

	26-05-2004 06:25									#90
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I don't think you really have a choice between those two strategies.

Pummel the Liberals, alongside the Conservatives, and watch the Conservatives get in.

Pummel the Conservatives alongside the Liberals, and watch the Liberals get in.

Either way you're stuck.