14-06-2004 07:42									#181
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quote: Originally posted by Wezil Rae and the NDP used lots of excuses to explain/justify their bad government, but in the end we saw them for what they were - excuses (as McGuinty is trying to do now). Photo radar was a sympton of the party's main fault (tax and spend). You neglected to mention 'Rae Days'....? Even NDP'ers were pissed at that one.

Spare me the old proganda about tax and spend. The NDP were being fiscally responsible, something the conservatives and the libs don't know how to do.

When faced with a massive north american recession, Rae tried to realistic solutions. It was better to give people days off without pay instead of laying off people.

And Bob Rae's policies never killed anyone unlike the Walkterton fiasco created by Harris and Eves.

The NDP also treated people with respect, unlike the Conservatives who delighted in giving cities the shaft.

	14-06-2004 09:13									#182
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quote: Originally posted by cinch The only way I could see the NDPs winning an election in this country would be if the Libs become totally defunct and the NDP realigns to become the new dominant centre-left party. With the platform that they have now, they can but only hope for a third place prize (and they won't even get that, thanks to Le Bloc).

You agree with the NDP policies more than the Liberals, at least based on that on-line test. Vote for the party that supports your views.

Get one other person to switch their vote to the NDP and get them to find someone else who will switch to the NDP.

It's like when your team is down a couple of goals. You can't think about how far behind the team is, or how many goals it will take to win. You just think one goal at a time, or in our case, you think, I'll shut them out for the rest of the game.

Same thing for the NDP. Each supporter just needs to find one person to switch to the NDP.

	14-06-2004 10:14									#183
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and to dream the impossible dream...

	14-06-2004 20:27									#184
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CBC Newsworld appears to be the only station broadcasting tonight's debate with simultaneous English translation. CPAC seems to be broadcasting the un-translated French.



CTV Newsnet is also broadcasting the debate

Last edited by Flinx on 14-06-2004 at 21:49

	14-06-2004 22:54									#185
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quote: Originally posted by Tingkai Spare me the old proganda about tax and spend. The NDP were being fiscally responsible, something the conservatives and the libs don't know how to do.

Spare me the revisionism. $9 Billion deficit 1st year. What would you call it.

quote: When faced with a massive north american recession, Rae tried to realistic solutions. It was better to give people days off without pay instead of laying off people.

And who pray tell supported the policy?

quote: And Bob Rae's policies never killed anyone unlike the Walkterton fiasco created by Harris and Eves.[

That was the Kabel (sp?) brothers fraud - not the Tories. The trial is soon iirc....

quote: The NDP also treated people with respect, unlike the Conservatives who delighted in giving cities the shaft.

I can do w/o anymore NDP 'respect' thank you.

	14-06-2004 23:30									#186
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quote: I think Harper shot himself in the foot. He made too many promises. People are moving away from Conservatives. Their support has peaked, and its below the combined support given to the Alliance/PC in the last election (31% now compared to a combined 37% in 2000).

That actually depends on the province you are looking at.

Places like Ontario and Quebec, have successfully combined the PC and Alliance vote. Places where the Alliance was already strong (in the west), have not.

The only place where this criticism holds any merit comes from the Maritimes.

	15-06-2004 00:14									#187
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I'm actually looking forward to the debate(s). The Liberals seem to be sinking on their own, totally independent of any other parties. It will be interesting to see the other leaders actually articulate some platform points and go head-to-head. This should be one of the most important ones WRT influencing voters in a long time.

	15-06-2004 00:59									#188
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I don't know how many voters are liable to change their preference but the debates should be interesting nonetheless. Martin tends to stammer a lot when pressed. I expect to see some stammering.

When your opponent is drowning do you throw him an anchor or stand back and watch?

	15-06-2004 01:04									#189
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From the Toronto Star:

quote: What voters look for in TV clash Debates will help 64 per cent decide Questions of trust, promises top list SUSAN DELACOURT OTTAWA BUREAU CHIEF OTTAWA—Almost two-thirds of voters will be using the party leaders' TV debates tonight and tomorrow night to help decide how they will cast their ballots on June 28, says a Toronto Star poll. And the voters' top debate questions revolve around trust, follow-through and whether Canada is able to afford the kind of government the leaders are promising, says the poll, conducted last week for the Star and La Presse by EKOS Research Associates. A full 40 per cent described the TV debates as very important in making the voting decision on June 28 and another 24 per cent said the debates — in French tonight and English tomorrow night — would be moderately important to their democratic choice. EKOS also did some random testing of sample debate questions with the 2,117 Canadians over the age of 18 who were polled by telephone between Monday and Wednesday last week. The following are the top five favourite questions — from among the options offered — that voters would like to see posed to the four party leaders in the TV debates: How will you ensure that money you need to fulfill your election promises will be available? What do you consider to be the biggest threat to our economy over the next three years and how would you address it? Can I trust you to keep your promises? How will Canada be different in 10 years from now if you are elected? Do you want to continue Canada's broad direction and values or do you think that we need to shift direction? The poll is considered accurate within 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The televised debates start each night at 8 and for two hours will follow the same format: brief opening and closing statements from each of the leaders and then four separate, topical segments that start with a question and follow-up to one leader, followed by six, one-on-one debates between each of the leaders on stage. The multitude of one-on-one sessions, more than have been seen in past election debates, will present all kinds of possibilities for dramatic confrontation; the mythic "knockout punch" that is always sought in these events, but only rarely delivered. The search for that defining moment is more media driven at any rate, since the major influence of debates generally comes after the event, when pundits and journalists deliver their verdict on the performances to a public that may have missed the broadcasts or watched only a small portion of the show. Indeed, this pivotal campaign event is largely a media creation, hosted by a consortium of broadcasters who install their own reporters to ask the questions. Tonight, the journalists' panel will include Emmanuelle Latraverse of TVA and Patrice Roy of Radio-Canada. CBC-TV's Keith Boag, CTV's Craig Oliver and Global-CanWest's David Vienneau are on the English-language debate panel. EKOS President Frank Graves sees a strong economic slant in the preferred questions of the poll respondents — a sign, he said, that people are looking for a more substantial debate on economic issues. "Canadians still want to know about things like skill shortages, inflation, productivity, regional disparities, North American economic integration, aging and demographics, yet they've heard little on these issues to date," Graves said. But trust and integrity matters form an equally strong current running through these questions — voters are demanding some type of predictability and accountability for promises made. Cynicism is a major force in this election, pollsters and pundits agree; part of the legacy of the recent Ontario budget, in which Premier Dalton McGuinty introduced health-care premiums despite his signed election pledge to avoid tax hikes. Prime Minister Paul Martin appears to be the chief victim of this cynicism, sharing the Liberal brand with McGuinty and running a campaign that has so far failed to convince Canadians that he or his party deserve a chance at re-election. Tonight and tomorrow night are seen as Martin's main chance to turn that impression around, which raises the stakes for him to perform well. Martin spent much of the weekend in intense debate preparation in a rented, cable TV studio, taking time out to meet about a dozen Ottawa-area Liberal candidates yesterday at a diner in Gatineau, Que. Martin said he will bring a positive message to Canadians in the broadcast debates. "I basically want to tell them I'm incredibly optimistic about the future of this country — as long as we make the right decisions," he said. Martin and New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton have both mentioned using the debates to talk beyond each other and directly to Canadians. Yesterday, at an Ottawa barbecue, Layton said: "In the last election, we had a million-plus votes and by all accounts, we're up by another million so far. ... This is a chance to speak with the millions more and invite them to be a part of one of the most positive campaigns, positive agendas that the country has been presented with in a long time." Conservative Leader Stephen Harper stayed out of the limelight all weekend, spending his time in debate preparation and relaxing with his family.

	15-06-2004 02:08									#190
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I've seen other polls recently showing most voters don't expect to change their minds b/c of the debates. I can understand why the Star would say otherwise however - If most votes are set, their guy is toast.

	15-06-2004 02:27									#191
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quote: Originally posted by Wezil Spare me the revisionism. $9 Billion deficit 1st year. What would you call it.

When the economy goes into recession and government revenues fall, it is not surprising that the government runs a deficit.

quote: And who pray tell supported the policy?

The funny thing about Rae days was that everyone hated them but at the university I worked at, when Harris cut funding and staff were told people they either had to voluntarily become part-time or there would be lay-offs, most people choose to become part-time.

quote: That was the Kabel (sp?) brothers fraud - not the Tories. The trial is soon iirc....

Prior to the conservatives removing all of the checks and balances from the system, there was a much greater likelihood of the situation in Walkerton being detected before so many people got sick and died. Those checks and balances have now been returned.

quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Places like Ontario and Quebec, have successfully combined the PC and Alliance vote.

The Conservatives will win many seats in Ontario on June 28 but that may be more Paul Martin's doing than Stephen Harper's. Given what the Liberals have been doing to themselves, the Conservatives should be in majority territory but they are not. The outcome of the election will be sealed with the leaders’ debates tonight and tomorrow. How badly will Paul Martin do? Rumour has it that PM could actually have the worst French of all the leaders and he is acknowledged to be the poorest stump debater. Can Paul Martin convince enough Canadians that he has a vision and to trust him? Can Jack Layton convince the supporters he currently has to stay with him, and additionally convince the people jumping off the sinking Liberal ship to join him? Can Stephen Harper keep his (and his candidates) mouth shut and shoe free?

	15-06-2004 02:32									#192
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Personally, I think the debate has the power to sink a candidate if he truly screws up, but does not have the opposite effect. And by that I mean: if the candidate makes a good showing, he won't gain much. If he makes a poor showing, he won't lose that much, either. But if he makes a colossal gaffe, it can really hurt him.

So I hope to see a gaffe or two tonight, though I don't know how likely.

My advice to Harper would be to lay low and speak determinately... No off-the-cuff remarks that could sound off-colour in the morning, ESPECIALLY with regard to social issues, which the other leaders will be pressing him on.

Should be fun.

	15-06-2004 02:34									#193
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quote: Given what the Liberals have been doing to themselves, the Conservatives should be in majority territory but they are not.

Strong evidence in favour of the remarkable success of the conservatives.

Shifting goalposts

We've gone from contemplating a Liberal majority, then to a Liberal minority, then a Conservative minority, and finally to expecting a Conservative majority!

Astonishing.

	15-06-2004 02:36									#194
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quote: Originally posted by Flinx Rumour has it that PM could actually have the worst French of all the leaders

Now that's a rumour I have trouble with... I thought Martin was supposed to be an above-par franky? Hm, I'll have to watch CPAC (if they are indeed showing un-dubbed French) to see who sounds best.

My money's on Duceppe.

	15-06-2004 02:39									#195
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quote: My money's on Duceppe.

Be funny if that were not true.

	15-06-2004 02:41									#196
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Just parking this here (from the last thread) for easier editing later. I'll post my updated prediction after the leader's debates.

code:
British Columbia
LIB    7 
CON   17 
NDP   12 

Alberta
LIB    2 
CON   26 

Saskatchewan
LIB    1 
CON    8 
NDP    5  

Manitoba
LIB    5
CON    5
NDP    4

Ontario
LIB   50
CON   44
NDP   12 

Quebec
LIB   31
BQ    44 

New Brunwick
LIB    7
CON    2
NDP    1

Nova Scotia
LIB    4
CON    3
NDP    4

Prince Edward Island
LIB    4

Newfoundland & Labrador
LIB    5
CON    2

Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut
LIB    3


TOTALS
LIB  119
CON  107
BQ    44
NDP   38

code:
"hedged" totals
Liberals        120-140
Conservatives   90-110
Bloc Quebecois  40-50
NDP             30-45

	15-06-2004 02:44									#197
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi We've gone from contemplating a Liberal majority, then to a Liberal minority, then a Conservative minority, and finally to expecting a Conservative majority! Astonishing.

You may be expecting a Conservative majority, but the Conservative insiders I know are not daring to be that hopeful. A conservative minority is quite likely however.

	15-06-2004 02:48									#198
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12 NDP seats in BC?

Hope springs eternal.

Here's mine.

BC

25 CON
6 LIB
3 NDP

ALTA

24 CON
2 LIB

Prairies

12 CON
8 LIB
8 NDP

Ontario

59 CON
37 LIB
6 NDP
1 GRN

Quebec

72 BQ
3 LIB

Atlantic

19 LIB
9 CON
4 NDP

North

2 LIB
1 CON

Total:

130 CON
77 LIB
72 BQ
21 NDP
1 GRN

	15-06-2004 05:26									#199
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Kudos to the CBC for giving the translator positions for Harper and Layton to two quite effeminate men.

	15-06-2004 05:46									#200
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Harper and Layton can debate quite efficiently in french.

	15-06-2004 06:02									#201
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Layton's from Montreal after all...

How is Harper's accent?

	15-06-2004 06:03									#202
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quote: 72 BQ

Oh my ****ing God. You're literally going insane.

	15-06-2004 06:04									#203
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I could practically have you committed based on that.

	15-06-2004 06:07									#204
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Layton's from Montreal after all... How is Harper's accent?

It's better than i thought it would be. He still places the emphasis in weird places, but all in all not bad.

Didn't even know Layton was from Montreal. It shows.

	15-06-2004 06:14									#205
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He grew up in Hudson (not quite on the island, but close enough).

	15-06-2004 06:15									#206
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quote: Originally posted by cinch Kudos to the CBC for giving the translator positions for Harper and Layton to two quite effeminate men.

Well they had to find someone who spoke French.

----

I met Layton's woman, Olivia Chow, yesterday. I was in my friend's apartment downtown on Elm Street (which is in her riding thing), and she was going door to door in the apartment asking for votes. At the time we were hotboxing in a walk-in closet RIGHT next to the apartment door, and she kinda interrupted, and we had the most intense 60 second conversation of our lives with her. She's cool. I would vote for her.

We offered her some but she politely declined.

	15-06-2004 06:16									#207
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Holy ****, that's hilarious.

	15-06-2004 06:19									#208
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Her little pamphlet thing came in handy for hashing. NDP

	15-06-2004 10:15									#209
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi We've gone from contemplating a Liberal majority, then to a Liberal minority, then a Conservative minority, and finally to expecting a Conservative majority! Astonishing.

The astonishing thing is how badly both the Liberals and Conservatives have done in this election campaign.

The astonishing thing is how the media has ignored the massive gains being made by the NDP.

The Liberals have blown a massive majority while the Conservatives have lost ground compared to the past election. (And no one is really expecting the Conservatives to get a majority).

The Conservatives have lost ground in the west and the Maritimes, barely holding on in Ontario. The Liberals have lost support or are barely holding on across the country. The NDP are gaining ground across the country. In almost every province, they're up by 10 percentage points.

That's the story that is not being told.

Harper has blown it in BC. In the 2000 election, 49.4% of BC voters picked the Alliance while the PC received 7.3%. Now only about 34% of BC voters are saying they'll pick the Conservatives. In other words, the Conservatives have lost ground even among the people who once voted for the Alliance.

In Alberta, the combined Alliance/PC vote in 2000 was 72.4%. The Conservatives are only polling at 59%. That's a huge drop for a traditionally right-wing province.

In Man/Sask, support has dropped from an combined average of 49% in 2000, down to 31%.

In Ontario, Conservative support is about the same as it was for the Alliance/PC in 2000, despite the backlash against the Ontario Liberal government. Again, the Conservatives should be doing much better. They haven't made any ground.

In the Maritimes, the Conservatives are down about 5 to 10 percentage points from the 2000 numbers.

So who is winning ground?

In BC, the Liberals are holding their ground while the NDP has doubled its support.

In Alberta, the Liberals are again holding steady while the NDP have doubled their support to 10% and surprisingly the Greens are polling about 10% too.

In Man and Sask, the same story, Liberals steady, NDP up by about 10 percentage points..

In the Maritimes, the Liberals are down slightly, the NDP is up about 10 percentage points.

	15-06-2004 10:27									#210
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi 12 NDP seats in BC? Hope springs eternal. Here's mine. BC 25 CON 6 LIB 3 NDP

1. Vancouver Centre
2. Vancouver East
3. Vancouver Kingsway
4. Vancouver South
5. Burnaby-Douglas
6. Burnaby-New Westminster
7. New Westminster-Coquitlam
8. Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
9. Kamloops-Thompson
10. Kootenay-Columbia
11. Skeena-Buckley Valley
12. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
13. Nanaimo-Alberni
14. Nanaimo-Cowichan
15. Vancouver Island North
16. Victoria

Minimum 6, maximum 16 NDP seats from BC. 12 may be wishful thinking, but with the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP all running even in the polls here, 12 of 36 is not a crazy outcome.