11-06-2004 01:24									#1
	Western Sudan - what is to be done? Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

lets have a little talk about the apparent genocide now going on in the Western Sudan, which seems to me the most urgent human rights problem in the world now. Im up for a coordinated 'poly campaign to write letters to congressmen, MP's etc. If anyone knows of relevant demonstrations, etc id also be interested.


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	11-06-2004 01:28									#2
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If the US is so concerned about human rights we should intervene. But we won't because all that BS about liberating Iraq and stopping atrocities was bullshit.

	11-06-2004 01:30									#3
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Sudan is geopolitically & economically unimportant. Therefore, nobody with real power cares. So nothing gets done.

Sad, but true.

And I remain undecided as to whether intervention w/peacekeeping forces really fixes these things. I'd say the jury is still out on Bosnia... Kosovo was a serious cluster****...

I'm wondering if the truely humane thing to do is not to intervene, but rather to offer to take in those who are being slaughtered. Offer them U.S. citizenship and send over transport planes to take them in.

-Arrian

	11-06-2004 01:30									#4
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And if we did intervene, we would have protests about American imperialism, American policing, American soldiers dying for oil, bla bla bla.

If the UN is so concerned about human rights, it should intervene.

	11-06-2004 01:33									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Verto And if we did intervene, we would have protests about American imperialism, American policing, American soldiers dying for oil, bla bla bla.

Actually, since as Arrian pointed out, it would be the exact opposite of that because the Sudan is not economically important. But don't let me interupt your jingoistic rant.

	11-06-2004 01:34									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Sava If the US is so concerned about human rights we should intervene. But we won't because all that BS about liberating Iraq and stopping atrocities was bullshit.

lets please not talk about what someone else will do. Lets talk about WE can do, including trying to influence our own govt. Lets not turn this into a debate on Iraq, or Dubya or whatever.

Do we agree that whats going on constitutes genocide - a campaign in which the Sudanese govt prevents NGOs from delivering aid regions affected by bombing, and by militia atrocities, apprarently with the goal of ethnically cleansing the area, and even pursuing these people into Chad?

The first thing our govts must insist on is opening up the area to NGO's. Even then, many will die. At the very least we must threaten economic and diplomatic sanctions on Sudan. These must be internationally coordinated to work.

	11-06-2004 01:35									#7
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need I remind you Verto, That the Sudan is an esteemed member of the UNHRC.

	11-06-2004 01:36									#8
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark lets please not talk about what someone else will do. Lets talk about WE can do, including trying to influence our own govt. Lets not turn this into a debate on Iraq, or Dubya or whatever. Do we agree that whats going on constitutes genocide - a campaign in which the Sudanese govt prevents NGOs from delivering aid regions affected by bombing, and by militia atrocities, apprarently with the goal of ethnically cleansing the area, and even pursuing these people into Chad? The first thing our govts must insist on is opening up the area to NGO's. Even then, many will die. At the very least we must threaten economic and diplomatic sanctions on Sudan. These must be internationally coordinated to work.

If it were up to me, the US would most likely be a benevolent Superpower that would care about human rights and atrocities. So I will support discussion of positive intervention.

	11-06-2004 01:36									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Sudan is geopolitically & economically unimportant. Therefore, nobody with real power cares. So nothing gets done. Sad, but true. And I remain undecided as to whether intervention w/peacekeeping forces really fixes these things. I'd say the jury is still out on Bosnia... Kosovo was a serious cluster****... I'm wondering if the truely humane thing to do is not to intervene, but rather to offer to take in those who are being slaughtered. Offer them U.S. citizenship and send over transport planes to take them in. -Arrian

1. while there are still problems in Kosovo, i think its far better than what was happening when we went in.
In any case im not advocating military intervention - yet.

2. If we do that, than any country that wishes to rid itself of a minority will simply expel them with knowledge that the US will take them in. We would be enabling what we want to prevent.

	11-06-2004 01:38									#10
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Given all the news about it I am more than sure your local gov. knows about it-but if you feel writing helps you, I would recommend it.

As for that getting any action-Arian is sadly correct- this is an "unimportant" region to the powers than can do something about it and would care. I guess Egypt or Lybia could get involved, but neither has a reason to. Chad and the Central African Republic are both likely to feel some distabalization if this continues.

	11-06-2004 01:38									#11
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Sanctions are crap - they do not work. They never get at the people they're supposed to punish.

Threatening to invade if the government doesn't allow the NGO's in is a possibility... but even then as you said many will still die.

I say we just take 'em in.

-Arrian

	11-06-2004 01:41									#12
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quote: 2. If we do that, than any country that wishes to rid itself of a minority will simply expel them with knowledge that the US will take them in. We would be enabling what we want to prevent.

Yeah, I was thinking about that...

It's possible, yes. But frankly no solution I can think of is lacking a downside.

-Arrian

	11-06-2004 01:41									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Sanctions are crap - they do not work. They never get at the people they're supposed to punish.

quote: Threatening to invade if the government doesn't allow the NGO's in is a possibility... but even then as you said many will still die. I say we just take 'em in. -Arrian

I'm leaning towards this course of action.

	11-06-2004 01:50									#14
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Given all the news about it I am more than sure your local gov. knows about it-but if you feel writing helps you, I would recommend it.

Obviously they know about it, the goal is to make them think some folks are worried about it. You shame them into action. You may feel that letter writing, lobbying etc has no impact on foreign policy in democratic states. I know people at AIPAC who have spent thousands of dollars betting on the opposite.

	11-06-2004 01:52									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Sanctions are crap - they do not work. They never get at the people they're supposed to punish. -Arrian

The goal wont be to punish, but to change.

They worked in South Africa. They seem to have had some impact on Libya. It seems even Burma watches out for them (I think thats why Suu Kyi is alive)

As far as i can tell Sudan very much wants better relations with the West. We need to make it clear thats not compatible with what happening in Darfur.

	11-06-2004 01:53									#16
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Constituent letters and lobbying are different things-unless the volume of letters is high enough. Lobbyist have money, hence access, hence the attention of your rep. In all likelyhood your letter might never be seen by your rep but only staff, who will at some point write you some response.

I am sure there are christian charity groups already lobbying congress on the issue, since they were there before on the child slavery issue.

	11-06-2004 01:53									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Sanctions are crap - they do not work. They never get at the people they're supposed to punish. Threatening to invade if the government doesn't allow the NGO's in is a possibility... but even then as you said many will still die. I say we just take 'em in. -Arrian

Most of those who will still die would also do so under your scenario. Organizing a mass evacuation is a difficult and time consuming practice. Why NGO's dont as a general rule encourage flight - its easier to feed people where they are.

	11-06-2004 01:55									#18
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quote: As far as i can tell Sudan very much wants better relations with the West. We need to make it clear thats not compatible with what happening in Darfur.

Agreed there, clearly.

But I remain dubious about sanctions. People who are hell-bent on destroying another group of people don't tend to be overly rational.

How do we know we won't end up with a situation like Iraq in the 1990s? Sanctions, no effect on Saddam, misery in the general population while Saddam built more palaces?

-Arrian

	11-06-2004 01:57									#19
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Constituent letters and lobbying are different things-unless the volume of letters is high enough. Lobbyist have money, hence access, hence the attention of your rep. In all likelyhood your letter might never be seen by your rep but only staff, who will at some point write you some response. I am sure there are christian charity groups already lobbying congress on the issue, since they were there before on the child slavery issue.

1. AIPAC does both lobbying AND letter writing. they certainly spend money on letter writing campaigns. So do corporations as a matter of fact.

2. Yup, only the staff see it. and they count em, and report the totals.

3. Christian groups - im not sure if theyre taking it up, as the victims are muslims, not christians as in the south. In any case, why not add more weight - why should someone elses action argue for inaction.

	11-06-2004 01:58									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Agreed there, clearly. But I remain dubious about sanctions. People who are hell-bent on destroying another group of people don't tend to be overly rational. How do we know we won't end up with a situation like Iraq in the 1990s? Sanctions, no effect on Saddam, misery in the general population while Saddam built more palaces? -Arrian

er cause sudan doesnt have enough oil, and what they have isnt developed.

	11-06-2004 01:59									#21
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So what, if the leadership is nutty enough?

-Arrian

	11-06-2004 02:00									#22
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Why not unleash neighboring countries that are destablized by Sudan's wars? Giving aid to Chad and Ethiopia to intervene may be an option.

	11-06-2004 02:02									#23
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You would trust them not to make things worse? I'm not sure I would trust a UN force not to make things worse, let alone the armies of Chad & Ethiopia.

-Arrian

	11-06-2004 02:09									#24
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How could it be worse than genocide?

	11-06-2004 02:09									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian So what, if the leadership is nutty enough? -Arrian

my impression is that the leadership ISNT all that nutty. Look these guys arent taking their victims out and shooting them. Theyve got this clever scheme where the ethnic minority is attacked using the same means western countries use - aerial bombing - plus deniable militias (which have also gotten western countries in trouble) but then they add the twist - no NGOs - all aid must go through the Sudan govt. We've got to inspect your planes before they land - we've got to test your medicines to make sure theyre safe. These arent nutters, theyre machiavelian cold blooded genocidaires.

	11-06-2004 02:10									#26
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Congo?

Didn't it start as an internal problem (civil war?) and then neighboring nations jumped in and REALLY stirred the ****?

Apologies if I've got that wrong. I admit to knowing very little about that one.

-Arrian

	11-06-2004 02:11									#27
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara How could it be worse than genocide?

I suppose a prolonger regional war, a la Congo.

Besides I dont think Chad has the logistics for it. and ethiopia isnt real eager to do it - Apparently Sudan has bought them off with support on the Eritrean conflict.

No, while Chad and even Libya could help, any military intervention would be mainly western.

	11-06-2004 02:12									#28
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark my impression is that the leadership ISNT all that nutty. Look these guys arent taking their victims out and shooting them. Theyve got this clever scheme where the ethnic minority is attacked using the same means western countries use - aerial bombing - plus deniable militias (which have also gotten western countries in trouble) but then they add the twist - no NGOs - all aid must go through the Sudan govt. We've got to inspect your planes before they land - we've got to test your medicines to make sure theyre safe. These arent nutters, theyre machiavelian cold blooded genocidaires.

And you think that the threat of sanctions might change their minds on the matter, and make them stop? I'm skeptical. I think the options are:

1) invade
2) take the undesirables out of there

Neither of which is a great solution, I know.

-Arrian

	11-06-2004 02:13									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Congo?

Definately a bad situation, but it wasn't genocide in Congo . . . at least not until the Rift Valley countries invaded. And it's actually more complicated than that, but it's definately not the same situation.

	11-06-2004 02:14									#30
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark I suppose a prolonger regional war, a la Congo.

'

That would be bad, but I don't think it would be worse.