18-08-2004 01:00									#421
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Uh, what success? Besides, what was the result of Nixon's "Vietnamization?" Our lackeys folded and our enemies won. Are you sure that's the sort of formula we should try to emulate?

Lackeys?

So that is what you and Kerry think of the new Iraqi government?

My God. How do we win in Iraq with such attitudes?

	18-08-2004 01:03									#422
	Inflate your Upload Space

You honestly think they aren't our lackeys Ned?

	18-08-2004 01:09									#423
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by Ned Lackeys? So that is what you and Kerry think of the new Iraqi government?

I haven't asked John yet what he thinks about them. Can you hang on a bit while I call him up?

quote: My God. How do we win in Iraq with such attitudes?

It's Iraqi attitudes we have to worry about, and it's not really likely that we're going to "win" in any event, because the idea of installing a stable, pro-western democracy was pretty delusional in the first place.

	18-08-2004 01:10									#424
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Ned, well actually, Kerry's plan to win Iraq is more realistic in my opinion. Double the size of special forces (who makes the good kills), and gather a stronger coalition and support, which I think he might be able to do. Now, the question is, is he really going to do this AND how well can he execute his plans. The reality is, the number of troops are wayyyy to low, this is a fact, and not a single word in the world can make it go away, not even if there has been operations in the past where simular ratio of groups were able to succeed, it don' tmatter they need MORE troops in there.......... so, what Bush is campagning with his security issues, I don't see that coming up any time soon. Keeping the troops the same will not bring victory. Multiplying the amount of troops gives the proper tools for it, and then we have to see if they can succeed, which they hopefully will

Support the troops by giving them a chance to do their job

And yes, their government in Iraq is total lackey as of now, as it should be.

	18-08-2004 01:11									#425
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious You honestly think they aren't our lackeys Ned?

It is the attitude that counts.

Now that Kerry has openly attacked the Saudi royal family, how much influence can Kerry expect with them in fighting war on terror or negotiating higher production.

Ditto Iraq. How can we transition to an independent Iraq if the US president openly calls them lackeys?

	18-08-2004 01:20									#426
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by Ned Now that Kerry has openly attacked the Saudi royal family, how much influence can Kerry expect with them in fighting war on terror or negotiating higher production.

Oil production from the Saudis isn't a real issue, and do we really want to transfer even more wealth to them?

The current prices are largely speculatively driven about future stability, they're not driven by shortage of current supplies.

quote: Ditto Iraq. How can we transition to an independent Iraq if the US president openly calls them lackeys?

I don't think Kerry said that. I know I did, but we haven't talked yet about which plum-list job I'll be getting in January, so I'm not currently a spokesman for the Kerry administration.

	18-08-2004 01:20									#427
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by Ned It is the attitude that counts.

I don't know how to respond to this, but it's nice to talk to you again Ned.

quote: Originally posted by Ned Now that Kerry has openly attacked the Saudi royal family, how much influence can Kerry expect with them in fighting war on terror or negotiating higher production.

Do you think Bush is going to negotiate for lower oil prices?

quote: Originally posted by Ned Ditto Iraq. How can we transition to an independent Iraq if the US president openly calls them lackeys?

If we call them independent how will we transition to an independent govt. You can't turn an apple into an apple. It's already an apple.

	18-08-2004 01:29									#428
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious Do you think Bush is going to negotiate for lower oil prices?

Why not, if the implication is that his ties to big oil prevent him from doing so thats misplaced as oil companies a) make most of their profits in the commerical sector via quickie shop sales. b) to the extent they make profit on gasoline sales they make most of it during flux times when the price is moving either up or down allowing them the opportunity to pre-empt costs and/or lag behind when costs have dropped

Further the gas/oil companies are to a great extent slitting their throats for further downstream commodity refined products like solvents etc that are indeed susceptible to drops in demand

Finally, I would think it obvious it is in his best interests to drive oil prices lower for purposes of not feeding inflationary pressures.

	18-08-2004 01:32									#429
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

How can Bush (or anyone) "negotiate" for lower prices when the US government isn't the buyer, the Saudis aren't nearly the only seller, and the prices are set multilaterally on several marketplaces?

	18-08-2004 01:34									#430
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

It's hard to say how much oil prices affect Bush's consituents, and it high oil prices would help them more or less, but Bush owes a lot of rich people, the Saudis being some of those people. He is in no position to negotiate with them.

	18-08-2004 01:57									#431
	Increase Your PM Length

(a) The Saudis don't set the prices, global marketplaces do.

(b) Neither Bush nor any other President has or could have a role in determining prices, they can only enact policies (such as the war in Iraq) to which the global market responds.

(c) High oil prices only help the Saudis and other producers in the short term. In the long term, they make it more likely for US and other marginal producers to increase production, while encouraging both conservation and R&D for alternative sources.

	18-08-2004 02:04									#432
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat How can Bush (or anyone) "negotiate" for lower prices when the US government isn't the buyer, the Saudis aren't nearly the only seller, and the prices are set multilaterally on several marketplaces?

Obviuously he doesn't, historically the requests have been to increase production in order to affect overall world supply of crude.

	18-08-2004 02:12									#433
	Put an end to popups!

And we're in a situation where there's strong global overproduction, but high prices regardless.

	18-08-2004 02:17									#434
	Got spare money?

I'm not close enough to the supply situation at present to know one way or the other. Media continues to report it as a tight supply. (As correct as the media normally is, that is )

Likewise I am led to beleive we have chronic shortage of refinery capability. This much I believe as it was the projections my wife was following in her previous role at Exxon.

	18-08-2004 02:23									#435
	Put an end to popups!

They don't understand markets beyond the depth of elementary school civics.

I haven't seen a more current published report, this is for the week ending August 6:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/...df/highlite.pdf


The refinery capacity shortage is real and persistent, but it's been with us a long time. Nobody really wants to invest a billion or two in creating overcapacity.

	18-08-2004 02:32									#436
	Suffering from ads?

Crap, Ned's posted. Guess the thread's already dead. Still, I might as well make the point I came for:

I don't have the spare time to forage through fifteen pages just now, but has anybody pointed out that nobody, even John Kerry, has a credibility problem compared to GWB? By all indications, it's his personality or lack thereof that's killing him in the polls, not accusations that he leapt to popularity on the backs of dead soldiers. Bush could just as easily be accused of that anyway...and those veterans will be hard-pressed to associate Kerry with something worse than Lynndie England giving a big old country-gal grin for the camera with a leashed naked guy.

	18-08-2004 02:33									#437
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat The refinery capacity shortage is real and persistent, but it's been with us a long time. Nobody really wants to invest a billion or two in creating overcapacity.

That was the assessment back 10 years ago as well.

Interesting 95%+ capacity utilization and pretty much been in that range for years. Let's hope no one has a major explosion, ehh?

	18-08-2004 03:26									#438
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat And we're in a situation where there's strong global overproduction, but high prices regardless.

I'm not so sure about this. The price has gone up recently after events in Iraq, Russia and Venezuala. The recall results in Venezuala calmed the markets a bit. I am sure we are not in a flooded oil market situation.

But the point remains. Saudi Arabia can really screw us if they wanted to.

The election of Kerry will make them want to.

	18-08-2004 03:29									#439
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Elok Crap, Ned's posted. Guess the thread's already dead. Still, I might as well make the point I came for: I don't have the spare time to forage through fifteen pages just now, but has anybody pointed out that nobody, even John Kerry, has a credibility problem compared to GWB? By all indications, it's his personality or lack thereof that's killing him in the polls, not accusations that he leapt to popularity on the backs of dead soldiers. Bush could just as easily be accused of that anyway...and those veterans will be hard-pressed to associate Kerry with something worse than Lynndie England giving a big old country-gal grin for the camera with a leashed naked guy.

The next time Kerry wraps himself in the flag of the Republic of Vietnam, I'm going to puke. However, I think he just may have to put his own Vietnam veterans to one side now else risk Bush raising the issue of the Swiftboat Vets.

	18-08-2004 03:32									#440
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat (a) The Saudis don't set the prices, global marketplaces do.

The Saudis have some pricing power.

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat (c) High oil prices only help the Saudis and other producers in the short term. In the long term, they make it more likely for US and other marginal producers to increase production, while encouraging both conservation and R&D for alternative sources.

Other producers have limited power, and alternative sources never seem to keep up with growing demand.

	18-08-2004 03:35									#441
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Ned But the point remains. Saudi Arabia can really screw us if they wanted to.

They may very well believe that increasing production will not be in their best interest. There is a lot of doubt about the future of the world economy and the future demand for oil.

	18-08-2004 03:40									#442
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Bush has credibility problems on Iraq and not Kerry?

Really?

Listen to this. It is remarkable.

http://media1.streamtoyou.com/rnc/080304v1.wmv

	18-08-2004 03:45									#443
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: and it's not really likely that we're going to "win" in any event,

Are you calling it now?

	18-08-2004 03:48									#444
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

One of the most remarkable things about Kerry was that he was actually calling for the use of ground troops to overthrow Saddam in 1998. He maintained that hawkish line until Dean got traction in 2003. Then he flipped.

Now he is trying to flop.

	18-08-2004 04:00									#445
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

quote: Originally posted by Agathon Are you calling it now?

I put "win" in quotes to refer to Ned's version of winning, which involves them becoming USA USA USA chanting, stars-and-stripes waving, Bush-worshipping America lovers.

His version is a little different from mine.

	18-08-2004 04:01									#446
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

quote: Originally posted by Ned One of the most remarkable things about Kerry was that he was actually calling for the use of ground troops to overthrow Saddam in 1998. He maintained that hawkish line until Dean got traction in 2003. Then he flipped. Now he is trying to flop.

Either that, or perhaps the strategic and intelligence realities of 1998 are a bit different from those of 2003.

	18-08-2004 04:07									#447
	Inflate your Upload Space

Oh, Bush's credibility problems aren't limited to Iraq. I don't believe a word Bush says on anything. Come to think of it, I don't think Bush believes a word Bush says on anything. He's the kind of guy who will fight to the end for his ideals, then figure out what exactly his ideals are later, when he has a spare moment.

Anyway, a column in today's Washington Post says MoveOn.org already pulled out the big guns in response. They have a commercial that quotes John McCain calling on Bush to condemn the Swift Boaters. McCain's War Hero muscle should counteract this nicely.

My computer doesn't have sound, Ned; what's your clip saying?

	18-08-2004 04:21									#448
	Increase the size of your Attachments

flip or flop, we should be careful where we use that term. I was in favour of invading Iraq too. However, it seems now, that this administration is not giving the needed support in order to strengthen the presense, and make things happen. That said, I dont' think it's a good idea anymore. Not because I didn't think it couldn't be done, but because I don't think it can be done this particular way.

Call me flip flopper, I reserve the right to change my own opinion that reflects the my priorities, facts and how things are going at the moment. I wouldn't think it's flip flopping. I think it's worse to say one thing and do the other thing at the same time.

	18-08-2004 04:21									#449
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by Ned I'm not so sure about this. The price has gone up recently after events in Iraq, Russia and Venezuala. The recall results in Venezuala calmed the markets a bit. I am sure we are not in a flooded oil market situation.

We have reserves, domestic production and domestic consumption pretty much in line with last year's numbers, but prices over 20% higher. The issue with bad news is that it freaks out the yuppies in the NYMEX pits, so they drive the futures market nuts and that affects everyone else's positions between the spot market and the futures contract closings.

quote: But the point remains. Saudi Arabia can really screw us if they wanted to. The election of Kerry will make them want to.

Ah, so the Republican line will be to continue to kiss Saudi ass? **** 'em. If they get out of line, we'll invade them too, and grab 'em by their great big noses while we kick 'em in the ass and take their oil too.

Oil prices are global. The Saudis can't selectively screw us without screwing all their customers, so if push comes to shove and they try anything, nobody is going to let their economies tank.

	18-08-2004 04:28									#450
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Oil isn't the only commodity in tight supply. The economy is out of ballance and many producers see it. No one is going to blame the Saudis. At least not enough to do anything about it. Anyway the weak dollar is at least as much to blame.