17-09-2004 09:01									#31
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quote: I have heard about Gallup in the news for decades, Zogby for the past couple years, and Pew only recently.

Did you know immediately, by means of some special knowledge, that Pew was an arm of the Democrats?

	17-09-2004 09:01									#32
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon And you claimed that Pew was one of them, five minutes after you learned it existed.

Gallup has been in the business for seven decades. How long has Pew been in the business?

And I'm just merely making the suggestion it is possible that Pew is a tool of the democrats (since Bush and Kerry are not in a dead heat).

	17-09-2004 09:02									#33
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quote: YOU JUST BAMMED YOURSELF, BOOHOO BOOHOO. You are the bammer. http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=115 "The Gallup Organization has studied human nature and behavior for more than 70 years. Gallup employs many of the world's leading scientists in management, economics, psychology, and sociology." I trust this poll more then others, especially considering the amount of years they have been in this business.

Which says absolutely nothing to do with how accurately Gallup has been predicting elections.

Why did I bother responding to your nonsense?

	17-09-2004 09:03									#34
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: YOU JUST BAMMED YOURSELF, BOOHOO BOOHOO. You are the bammer. http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=115 "The Gallup Organization has studied human nature and behavior for more than 70 years. Gallup employs many of the world's leading scientists in management, economics, psychology, and sociology." I trust this poll more then others, especially considering the amount of years they have been in this business. Which says absolutely nothing to do with how accurately Gallup has been predicting elections. Why did I bother responding to your nonsense?

Why should I bother responding to your typical partisan nonsense that always proves to be wrong?

	17-09-2004 09:06									#35
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quote: Did you know immediately, by means of some special knowledge, that Pew was an arm of the Democrats?

Divine Revelation?

	17-09-2004 09:14									#36
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	17-09-2004 09:17									#38
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There is absolutely no way this is poll is correct. The electorate is way, way too polarized for either candidate to have a 14 point lead. With over 90% of each candidate's supporters previously saying they have their mind made up, there is no way the race can swing dramatically.

I would guess a lead for Bush around 3-5 point right now. I have been tracking the state vote totals at www.electoral-vote.com, and many of the state totals have been going up for Bush. Particularly indicative are two polls done in New York showing Kerry's lead slimmed to single digits; a Democratic stronghold like NY being that close is indicative of Bush having gained an advantage. The Bush campaign has seriously outmanuevered the Kerry canpaign, and has gained the advantage. The Kerry camapaign however is doing what it should have been all along- hitting Bush hard on the economy. Kerry's latest ad on www.johnkerry.com on health care was particularly. There are enough bad economic statistics available that Kerry should be able to climb back if he is finally able to stay on message. Expect a tough, close race come November Second.

A word of note though- the candidate leading in the Polls on Labor Day has won the popular vote everytime since modern polling began.

	17-09-2004 10:13									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo Links. Gallup is not a bad poll. Pew? Never heard of that one. Is that one of those where they poll far more democrats then republicans?

Come on people. A poll organized by FOX/Opinion Dynamics that came out just one day earlier than the time poll has the race 47/45 with Bush leading by just two points. So while it seems that Bush is ahead, its hardly a blow out ATM.

Of course maybe Fox has a leftist bias
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

	17-09-2004 10:15									#40
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And I love's Fez's view on Pew. "I know a priori that the race can't be close so that any information to the contrary must be EVIL COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA." You're so cute Fez

	17-09-2004 11:07									#41
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Really Boshko, all you had to was point to your signature.

	17-09-2004 11:39									#42
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quote: There is absolutely no way this is poll is correct. The electorate is way, way too polarized for either candidate to have a 14 point lead.

They also said that the electorate was too polarized for either candidate to receive a post-convention bounce. That turned out to be bullshit, so why should we believe the same argument in a different guise?

quote: With over 90% of each candidate's supporters previously saying they have their mind made up, there is no way the race can swing dramatically.

People could be changing their minds, you know...

	17-09-2004 11:43									#43
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Or, more likely, Gallup could be an outlier, and the real state of the race could be represented by most other polls, which show it almost tied.

	17-09-2004 11:45									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Or, more likely, Gallup could be an outlier, and the real state of the race could be represented by most other polls, which show it almost tied.

Most polls are between 7-14% for a lead for Bush... so please spare me. And if you people want to insult me fine... you don't know what you are talking about.

	17-09-2004 11:45									#45
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I'm not saying that the Gallup poll is undeniably correct, just that Shi's reason for doubting it is silly.

	17-09-2004 12:21									#46
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Did you know immediately, by means of some special knowledge, that Pew was an arm of the Democrats?

No, I just know that I don't know enough about them to regard them as highly as the other polls.

	17-09-2004 12:43									#47
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This might be a reason why undecideds aren't being swayed to Kerry's side...

quote: Three-year-old Sophia Parlock cries while seated on the shoulders of her father, Phil Parlock, after having their Bush-Cheney sign torn up by Kerry-Edwards supporters on Thursday, Sept. 16, 2004, at the Tri-State Airport in Huntington, W.Va. Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards made a brief stop at the airport as he concluded his two-day bus tour to locations in West Virginia and Ohio.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...wvrs10309162250

Mindless hatred like this does nothing to win moderates over to your side.

	17-09-2004 13:41									#48
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I think Kerry's more comfortable coming from behind though. It's not for nothing they call him the "Comeback Kid."

I bet Daryn Kagan is more comfortable with Rush "coming from behind" as well, lest she glimpse something that makes her sick to her stomach.

	17-09-2004 13:53									#49
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I have changed my mind for personal reasons, I now hope Bush wins. I still really couldn't care, but if Kerry wins, something I need may not be attainable.

I've given up all hope for America and it's politics. I now fully understand the reality of the situation. It is a one party system, and that will never change.


--signing out

	17-09-2004 14:45									#50
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Basically what all this polling is indicarting is that Kerry/Edwards may have to start spending money in states they thought were safely theirs. In Illinois most of the Kerry bumber stickers I see are left-overs from the primary. The only Kerry/Edwards ones I've seen are ones distributed by the labor unions. If they have to start actually spending money here, it going to be funds originaly ear-marked for battle-ground states that were closely won by Bush in 2000. The whole strategy of this election for the Democrats was to hold there own and flip enough close states to win.

If they can't hold the 2000 Gore states they may as well pack it in for the top of the ticket and funnel the money down to close congressional races where it may actually do some good.

	17-09-2004 16:28									#51
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I don't know why any of the polling orgs are doing anything other than "Likely" voters. These are the numbers that reflect the probable outcome. With these numbers, it looks like Kerry has a large uphill climb.

	17-09-2004 16:48									#52
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Normally after conventions there is a 5 to 10% swing to a candidate just after their convention, this takes about a month to die down. From the results that I am seeing I would say that it will roll out roughly even in the end.

This one poll that appears to be hugely out of line with all the others must have just caught the wrong people on the wrong day, as can happen with all sampled polls.

the average result is more likely correct.

	17-09-2004 16:55									#53
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Polls and Election are two different things

I predict Kerry will win

	17-09-2004 17:45									#54
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The Kerry campaign has been horribly uneffective the last 1.5 months- they let the president define the race at the moment, and define Kerry-both of which are bad choices- and I do think his strategists still can't figure out how they have failed to pin a few obvious labels on Bush, such as "First since Hoover to lose jobs over 4 years"I mean, come on, that is so simple-yet they haven't done it.

Certainly the Gallup poll is an outlier- the president has poor approval numbers and high dislike numbers- but in essence the Kerry campaign has been pathetic.

A big question is what happens come the debates. If Bush does average (given that anything other than poor from him is lauded as some great achievement) and Kerry is unable to pound him, then Kerry is in real trouble. Kerry better get ready for those debates, cause they are his chance.

	17-09-2004 18:21									#55
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Opinion polls suck.

	17-09-2004 18:24									#56
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quote: Originally posted by GePap - they let the president define the race at the moment, and define Kerry-both of which are bad choices- .

Kerry has been much more hurt by who he and the Democrats have defined the race, than by anything Bush's campaign has done. Kerry made Military service the biggest issue, not Bush. Kerry knew these swiftboat guys were out there, their leaders have been after him for over 30 years, long before Bush was candidate for anything.

	17-09-2004 18:27									#57
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quote: Originally posted by Lefty Scaevola Kerry has been much more hurt by who he and the Democrats have defined the race, than by anything Bush's campaign has done. Kerry made Military service the biggest issue, not Bush.

Yes, Kerry was naive to think the republicans would not do something as low as they did. Stupid him- but that did not define the ace-that hurt Kerry with undecideds. The repug convention defined the race again, with Bush as "war leader"

	17-09-2004 18:32									#58
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Well isn't CNN just a front for Bush now? Gallup does their polls IIRC. We the people have suspected their bias for some time now, but with the recent news that Daryn Kagan is waving her ass in the air for the vile Rush Limbaugh, our suspicions have been confirmed.

What is this "we the people" **** Your not apart of the we. your someone sitting on the sideline watching. Don't try to identify with we. Leave we alone. we are doing just fine thank you

	17-09-2004 18:36									#59
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Yes, Kerry was naive to think the republicans would not do something as low as they did. Stupid him- but that did not define the ace-that hurt Kerry with undecideds. The repug convention defined the race again, with Bush as "war leader"

Are you really that partisian or is it an act? I mean do you really think Kerry is a great guy or something? I was just wondering cause you seem to think Kerry is somehow different from the standard politician. Oh and you don't have to be too condecending in your answer, I'm honestly curious.

	17-09-2004 18:37									#60
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quote: Originally posted by Sikander I bet Daryn Kagan is more comfortable with Rush "coming from behind" as well, lest she glimpse something that makes her sick to her stomach.