 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
ixnay
|
|
ACS Staff: 'RoN' Content Editor
|
 |
I <3 etna, omg disgaea fag
Jan 1970
time: 22:23
|
|
What's this? Why you mean Gallup is making ridiculous assumptions about registered and likely voters that would skew their poll to the right?
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html
quote:
This morning we awoke to the startling news that despite a flurry of different polls this week all showing a tied race, the venerable Gallup Poll, as reported widely in the media (USA Today and CNN) today, showed George W. Bush with a huge 55%-42% lead over John Kerry amongst likely voters. The same Gallup Poll showed an 8-point lead for Bush amongst registered voters (52%-44%). Before you get discouraged by these results, you should be more upset that Gallup gets major media outlets to tout these polls and present a false, disappointing account of the actual state of the race. Why?
Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat.
You read that correctly. I asked Gallup, who have been very courteous to my requests, to send me this morning their sample breakdowns by party identification for both their likely and registered voter samples they use in these national and I suspect their state polls. This is what I got back this morning:
Likely Voter Sample Party IDs – Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%
Total Sample: 767
GOP: 305 (40%)
Dem: 253 (33%)
Ind: 208 (28%)
Registered Voter Sample Party IDs – Same Poll
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%
Total Sample: 1022
GOP: 381 (38%)
Dem: 336 (33%)
Ind: 298 (30%)
...
According to John Zogby himself:
If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000.
So the Democrats have been 39% of the voting populace in both 1996 and 2000, and the GOP has not been higher than 35% in either of those elections. Yet Gallup trumpets a poll that used a sample that shows a GOP bias of 40% amongst likely voters and 38% amongst registered voters, with a Democratic portion of the sample down to levels they haven’t been at since a strong three-way race in 1992?
Folks, unless Karl Rove can discourage the Democratic base into staying home in droves and gets the GOP to come out of the woodwork, there is no way in hell that these or any other Gallup Poll is to be taken seriously.
How likely is it that the Democrats will suffer a seven-point difference against the GOP this November or that the GOP will ever hit 40%?
Not very likely.
The real problem here is that Gallup is spreading a false impression of this race. Through its 1992 partnership with two international media outlets (CNN and USA Today), Gallup is telling voters and other media by using badly-sampled polls that the GOP and its candidates are more popular than they really are. Given that Gallup’s CEO is a GOP donor, this should not be a surprise. But it does require us to remind the media, like Susan Page of USA Today, who wrote the lead story on the poll in the morning paper, and other members of the media who cite this poll today, that it is based on a faulty sample composition of 40% GOP and 33% Democratic. |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Drake Tungsten
|
 |
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:23
|
|
Nevermind...
Last edited by Drake Tungsten on 18-09-2004 at 18:56
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Drake Tungsten
|
|
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:23
|
|
Full story...
quote:
Bush clear leader in poll
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.Among registered voters, Bush is ahead 52%-44%.
The boost Bush received from the Republican convention has increased rather than dissipated, reshaping a race that for months has been nearly tied. Kerry is facing warnings from Democrats that his campaign is seriously off-track.
With 46 days until the election, analysts say the proposed presidential debates offer Kerry his best chance to change the race.
"It doesn't look like the new consultants and strategies of attacks are the right ones" for Kerry, says Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign. Kerry in recent weeks added veterans of the Clinton White House to his team and began criticizing Bush more sharply on Iraq and other issues.
Dowd says Kerry at this point would "have to defy history" to defeat a sitting president.
"We have seen some bouncing around in the numbers," says Mike McCurry, a top Kerry adviser, "but it is our sense that the race is moving back to a much closer race."
A Pew Research Center poll released Thursday shows a tighter contest. The survey, taken Saturday through Tuesday, gives Bush a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% among likely voters.
The Gallup Poll was taken Monday through Wednesday.
Presidential candidates have won after trailing by similar margins. One was George W. Bush himself. In 2000, he was behind Al Gore by 10 points among registered voters in early October and then prevailed in the Electoral College, though he lost the popular vote.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan was down 8 points in the Gallup Poll in late October but won in a landslide after doing well in the only debate held with President Carter.
"Sen. Kerry is like Seabiscuit: He runs better from behind," says Donna Brazile, who was Gore's campaign manager. But she acknowledges that "backbenchers" in the Democratic Party "have begun pushing the panic button." |
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politi...llup-poll_x.htm
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Admiral
|
 |
of the peace and coexistance movement
Feb 2001
time: 00:23
|
|
(CNN) -- Two new national polls are giving widely divergent views as to whether President Bush's post-convention bounce has solidified or evaporated.
A Gallup Poll released Friday showed the president widening his lead over Kerry among likely voters to 13 percentage points, with 55 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. (Special report: America Votes 2004, poll tracker)
The race narrowed to 8 points among registered voters, with 52 percent choosing Bush and 44 percent picking Kerry.
The level of support for the president was the highest he has seen in the Gallup Poll since January, when he was enjoying a bump from the capture of Saddam Hussein.
Bush's job approval rating also rose to its highest level since April, with 52 percent saying they approved of his performance and 45 percent saying they did not.
However, a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, released Thursday, showed the race between Bush and Kerry now a dead heat.
Among registered voters, the two candidates were tied at 46 percent in the Pew poll; among likely voters, Bush led by a statistically insignificant margin of 47 percent to 46 percent.
The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The Pew Center conducted two waves of polling over a seven-day period between September 8 and Tuesday.
In the first wave, Bush had a double-digit lead, but by the final wave of polling, the race had become a dead heat, indicating that the president's momentum had eroded.
The Gallup Poll, which showed no erosion of momentum, was conducted at roughly the same time as the second wave of polling done by the Pew Center.
|
|
| |
All times are GMT. The time now is 05:23.
Apolyton Time is 00:23. |
top of page
|
| archivepost |
|
Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
|
|
|
|
|
|
17-09-2004 23:31
|