17-09-2004 08:25									#1
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According to the latest Gallup poll...

quote: A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...pr/campaign_rdp

This news comes after polls indicating that Kerry is swiftly losing support in previously safe states like Illinois, New Jersey and Minnesota.



Looks like Ned might be right about a Bush landslide after all...

	17-09-2004 08:27									#2
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Two other polls (including Pew) had the race dead even.

Your call.

	17-09-2004 08:28									#3
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OH GOD I HOPE BUSH WINS!

ONLY HE CAN SAVE US FROM THE TERRORISTS AND THE HOMER-SEX-U-ALS!!!!

NEBRASKA 4EVA!!!!!!

	17-09-2004 08:29									#4
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A week is a long time in politics.

	17-09-2004 08:33									#5
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Recent polls:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Gallup's numbers look like an outlier.

	17-09-2004 08:34									#6
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Well isn't CNN just a front for Bush now? Gallup does their polls IIRC.

We the people have suspected their bias for some time now, but with the recent news that Daryn Kagan is waving her ass in the air for the vile Rush Limbaugh, our suspicions have been confirmed.

	17-09-2004 08:34									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Two other polls (including Pew) had the race dead even. Your call.

Links. Gallup is not a bad poll. Pew? Never heard of that one. Is that one of those where they poll far more democrats then republicans?

	17-09-2004 08:36									#8
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http://www.electoral-vote.com/

	17-09-2004 08:37									#9
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quote: Pew? Never heard of that one

	17-09-2004 08:39									#10
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Hey, I agree with Fez.

Gallup is a reputable polling organisation that has been doing this thing for a long time.

Oh, and CNN is a front for Bush?

	17-09-2004 08:41									#11
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Gallup is the best polling outfit in the business. Why? Because they're from Nebraska...

In all seriousness, though, this could be a fluke. With the way Kerry's campaign has imploded in the past few weeks, however, it wouldn't surprise me at all if this turned out to be accurate.

	17-09-2004 08:42									#12
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I think Kerry's more comfortable coming from behind though. It's not for nothing they call him the "Comeback Kid."

	17-09-2004 08:43									#13
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He must be really comfortable right now, then...

	17-09-2004 08:43									#14
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In state polls, Bush does seem to be gaining ground, so I think that it is a fair assumption that Bush a lead of around 8% (Gallup of late has been more republican than other pollsters, at least in state polls (electoral-vote.com, which averages all polls, so can't be accused of bias)). However, given the bleaker and bleaker situation in Iraq, I can't imagine Bush's numbers continuing to go up or even really staying where they are now.

	17-09-2004 08:44									#15
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Hey, Admiral. The CPA extends an invitation for you to join.

	17-09-2004 08:45									#16
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I think Kerry's more comfortable coming from behind though. It's not for nothing they call him the "Comeback Kid."

Yeah but he's still falling. Coming from way behind but coming up short.

"Gallup of late has been more republican than other pollsters, at least in state polls"

Not at all. Gallup has a pretty good mix of democrats and republican poll-takers (half/half). While some are more focused on democrats (pew, zogby).

	17-09-2004 08:45									#17
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Organizations that demonstratably have been far more accurate in the past, like Harris are showing essentially a dead heat. Time and Gallup are showing larger margins, but they're outliers.

Kerry's probably behind, but only by a couple points.

	17-09-2004 08:47									#18
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Isn't it more important where the vote is concentrated? Bush can be ahead in states he'll win anyway but Kerry could win more states.

	17-09-2004 08:47									#19
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quote: Not at all. Gallup has a pretty good mix of democrats and republican poll-takers (half/half). While some are more focused on democrats (pew, zogby)

Five minutes ago you said you weren't even aware of Pew's existence.

Do you go out of your way to make yourself look foolish like this?

	17-09-2004 08:48									#20
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quote: With the way Kerry's campaign has imploded in the past few weeks, however, it wouldn't surprise me at all if this turned out to be accurate.

I dispute the claim that Kerry's campaign has imploded. Bush has managed to reframe the campaign in terms of his image as a "war president." This, combined with the normal convention bounce, has put him ahead in the polls (also, Kerry admittedly was somewhat less effective than he could have been responding to the swift boat ads). I would be rather suprised if the campaign does not return to at least a statistical tie in the coming weeks.

	17-09-2004 08:49									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Organizations that demonstratably have been far more accurate in the past, like Harris are showing essentially a dead heat. Time and Gallup are showing larger margins, but they're outliers. Kerry's probably behind, but only by a couple points.

No, no, no. Gallup has had a good history with showing the facts (historically, gallup has been doing this the longest and have the longest track record of predicting elections correctly). Kerry is far behind. So don't get your hopes up (and it is far more then just a few points)

quote: Bush can be ahead in states he'll win anyway but Kerry could win more states.

There are states polls that refute the latter part of that statement showing Bush has gained in several battleground states substantially.

	17-09-2004 08:49									#22
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It scares me, though, when the Democrat is behind in New Jersey.

Just a thought.

	17-09-2004 08:49									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Five minutes ago you said you weren't even aware of Pew's existence. Do you go out of your way to make yourself look foolish like this?

I'm just saying what the likely circumstances of that poll are (because Bush and Kerry ARE NOT in a dead heat, sorry to burst your bubble).

	17-09-2004 08:53									#24
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quote: (historically, gallup has [...] the longest track record of predicting elections correctly).

No, they're not. Proof that this is a BAM is that you've just now heard of Pew.

	17-09-2004 08:54									#25
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quote: I'm just saying what the likely circumstances of that poll are (because Bush and Kerry ARE NOT in a dead heat, sorry to burst your bubble).

No. You have decided, after a total of five minutes awareness of its existence, to declare that Pew is effectively an arm of the Democratic Party.

That's lame even by your standards.

	17-09-2004 08:55									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: (historically, gallup has [...] the longest track record of predicting elections correctly). No, they're not. Proof that this is a BAM is that you've just now heard of Pew.

YOU JUST BAMMED YOURSELF, BOOHOO BOOHOO. You are the bammer.

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=115

"The Gallup Organization has studied human nature and behavior for more than 70 years. Gallup employs many of the world's leading scientists in management, economics, psychology, and sociology."

I trust this poll more then others, especially considering the amount of years they have been in this business.

	17-09-2004 08:56									#27
	Suffering from ads?

quote: He must be really comfortable right now, then...

He should get even more comfortable over the upcoming weeks.

	17-09-2004 08:56									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon No. You have decided, after a total of five minutes awareness of its existence, to declare that Pew is effectively an arm of the Democratic Party. That's lame even by your standards.

Look there are polls out there that are in fact tools of the democrats. They have more democrat poll takers then republicans. You just bammed.

	17-09-2004 09:00									#29
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I have heard about Gallup in the news for decades, Zogby for the past couple years, and Pew only recently.

	17-09-2004 09:00									#30
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quote: Look there are polls out there that are in fact tools of the democrats.

And you claimed that Pew was one of them, five minutes after you learned it existed.