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mrmitchell
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quote:
I think Kerry actually does support Gay Marriage, which is commendable. He's just pretending that he doesn't because iit's unpopular. So I don't know what to think about this. |
Kerry's official position is that gay marriage should be an issue left to the states to decide. This is the position that Bush had on it in 2000 before he flip-flopped and supported a Constitutional ban.
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Boris Godunov
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Portland, OR
Aug 2001
time: 00:19
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First results already in:
quote:
N.H. mountain hamlets cast first votes
15 for Bush, 15 for Kerry in Hart's Location
The Associated Press
Updated: 12:38 a.m. ET Nov. 2, 2004HART’S LOCATION,
N.H. - The nation’s first Election Day votes were cast and counted just after midnight Tuesday in this mountain hamlet, with President Bush and John Kerry each receiving 15 votes. Ralph Nader received one.
The communities of Hart’s Location and Dixville Notch since 1948 sporadically have been taking advantage of a state law that allows communities to close polls early if all registered voters have cast ballots. The 26 registered voters in Dixville Notch were still were casting votes shortly after midnight.
In 2000, both communities chose President Bush over Democrat Al Gore. In Hart’s Location, Bush won 17-13. In Dixville Notch, about 50 miles to the north, Bush had 21, Gore five and Ralph Nader one vote.
By state law, polls must be open between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. But nothing prevents a town from opening the polls earlier and closing after all potential voters have cast ballots.
Hart’s Location began doing just that in 1948 because nearly everyone in town worked for the railroad and many had to be at work before normal voting hours. Dixville followed in 1960.
National media attention to these “first votes” began in 1952, when the state let voters in the state’s earliest presidential primary vote for the candidates themselves rather than delegates to the national party conventions. The Republican primary made news that year because Gen. Dwight Eisenhower upset party favorite Robert A. Taft.
Small towns including Hart’s Location, Millsfield and Waterville Valley soon were competing to cast the nation’s first votes. Hart’s Location dropped early voting in 1964, only to revive it 1996.
Dixville didn’t get into the act until 1960 for the general election. Reflecting the state’s then-solid Republican leanings, Republican Richard Nixon beat Democrat John Kennedy, 9-0.
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The Dems are already outperforming 2000 in the votes by a good margin.  
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Drachasor
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quote:
Originally posted by MrFun
Since some people are getting excited over the meaningless, ridiculous, imaginary, demographic group such as cell phone owners when talking about voting patterns, I thought of several other ridiculous demographic groups:\ |
The pollsters can't call cell phones, so the demographic that solely has a cell phone isn't counted in the polls; that's more and more people these days.
The poll was done via text messaging, circumventing the inability to call them (it's a legal inability).
So Kerry being ahead by 15% among cell-phone users is a good sign. It is one more factor that supports the idea of a Kerry-win.
Oh, and I predict Kerry will win with about 300 or more Electoral votes and 51-52% of the vote (Bush will get about 48%).
-Drachasor
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Oerdin
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of Internet Music.
Sep 2001
time: 21:19
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I think the high early voter turn out for Kerry will be key. Not only are those votes locked in but Kerry is trying to get them to help turn out the vote tomorrow and to help car pool other Kerry voters to the poll. Add in the Democrates' advantage in big party voter turn out apparatus and I think we've found a winner. The Republicans have more loyal voters but the Democrates seem to be motivated far more then in any election since 1960 so I'm expecting a big turn out.
Last edited by Oerdin on 02-11-2004 at 10:59
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Drachasor
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Factors that will give Kerry a win:
1. College Students favor Kerry by a massive margin and will be voting in record numbers.
2. Cell-phone users favor Kerry and aren't on the national or local polls.
3. Record voter turnout always favors the Democrats because there are simply a lot more Democrats than Republicans.
4. The Democratic Party is working as hard as it can to leverage 1-3 and make sure everyone gets to the polls. Early Voting also helps get Democrats to the polls.
5. Undecided Voters typically Break for the Challenger
6. National Polls always underestimate the Challenger by 1 or more percentage points (and it can easily be 4% or more). Kerry is essentially tied or leading in most of the Swing States, 1-5 will should push him over the top.
Some indicators Kerry is winning:
Kerry is up on early voting/returns compared to Gore by about 4% or more.
-Drachasor
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02-11-2004 10:24
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