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el freako
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Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999 time: 05:18
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quote: Originally posted by Ned
el freako, on the US growth rate 1935-41, I am willing to bet that the bulk of the growth occurred in years 1940-41 as America moved to a war footing. Do you have a year-by-year breakdown? |
Sure:
1933: -2.1%
1934: 7.7%
1935: 7.6%
1936: 14.2%
1937: 4.3%
1938: -4.0%
1939: 8.0%
1940: 7.7%
1941: 18.2%
(note these figures are from the aforementioned 'World Economic Statistics' and are not exactly the same as the BEA data)
So, true up to a point, although the timing of the 1938 recession skews the figures.
Interestingly the BEA provides a breakdown of the contribution of different sectors to growth,
Total Growth, contribution of military spending, contribution of civilian economy:
1936: 13.0%, 0.3%, 12.7%
1937: 5.1%, 0.0%, 5.1%
1938: -3.4%, 0.1%, -3.5%
1939: 8.1%, 0.2%, 7.9%
1940: 8.8%, 1.2%, 7.6%
1941: 17.1%, 10.8%, 6.3%
quote: Originally posted by Kidicious
Well I was taught that the German economic growth was the highest in history during this period from a professor of economics with a PhD. I would still like to see the year by year stats. |
It's quite possible he was using inferior data, the study I mention by Angus Maddison was only released a few years ago.
I'm reluctant to post a spreadsheet of the data as it is copyrighted material however the PDF version of the study (which includes the ability to download an excel spreadsheet containing all the data) is only $16.
Annual average growth rate of Germany (unified east and west for period 1946-68) and USSR:
1929: -0.4%, 2.8%
1930: -1.4%, 5.8%
1931: -7.6%, 1.9%
1932: -7.5%, -1.1%
1933: 6.3%, 4.1%
1934: 9.1%, 9.8%
1935: 7.5%, 15.1%
1936: 8.8%, 7.9%
1937: 6.0%, 10.2%
1938: 7.7%, 1.8%
1939: 9.4%, 6.2%
1940: 0.7%, -2.4%
1941: 6.3%. -20.6%
1942: 1.3%, 0.0%
1943: 2.0%, 0.0%
1944: 2.5%, 0.0%
1945: -28.8%, 0.0%
1946: -52.6%, -0.3%
1947: 12.3%, 11.2%
1948: 18.4%, 13.7%
1949: 17.0%, 10.7%
1950: 18.9%, 9.6%
1951: 9.2%, 0.5%
1952: 8.7%, 6.5%
1953: 8.4%, 4.3%
1954: 7.5%, 4.9%
1955: 11.0%, 8.6%
1956: 7.2%, 9.6%
1957: 5.7%, 2.0%
1958: 4.5%, 7.5%
1959: 7.3%, -1.1%
1960: 8.1%, 9.5%
1961: 4.1%, 5.7%
1962: 4.3%, 2.7%
1963: 2.8%, -2.3%
1964: 6.1%, 12.9%
1965: 5.1%, 5.7%
1966: 3.0%, 4.9%
1967: 0.3%, 4.4%
1968: 5.3%, 5.9%
Last edited by el freako on 23-11-2004 at 03:07
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Kidicious
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Diety of Kidiverse
Mar 2003 time: 21:18
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quote: Originally posted by el freako
Annual average growth rate of Germany (unified east and west for period 1946-68) and USSR:
1929: -0.4%, 2.8%
1930: -1.4%, 5.8%
1931: -7.6%, 1.9%
1932: -7.5%, -1.1%
1933: 6.3%, 4.1%
1934: 9.1%, 9.8%
1935: 7.5%, 15.1%
1936: 8.8%, 7.9%
1937: 6.0%, 10.2%
1938: 7.7%, 1.8%
1939: 9.4%, 6.2%
1940: 0.7%, -2.4%
1941: 6.3%. -20.6%
1942: 1.3%, 0.0%
1943: 2.0%, 0.0%
1944: 2.5%, 0.0%
1945: -28.8%, 0.0%
1946: -52.6%, -0.3%
1947: 12.3%, 11.2%
1948: 18.4%, 13.7%
1949: 17.0%, 10.7%
1950: 18.9%, 9.6%
1951: 9.2%, 0.5%
1952: 8.7%, 6.5%
1953: 8.4%, 4.3%
1954: 7.5%, 4.9%
1955: 11.0%, 8.6%
1956: 7.2%, 9.6%
1957: 5.7%, 2.0%
1958: 4.5%, 7.5%
1959: 7.3%, -1.1%
1960: 8.1%, 9.5%
1961: 4.1%, 5.7%
1962: 4.3%, 2.7%
1963: 2.8%, -2.3%
1964: 6.1%, 12.9%
1965: 5.1%, 5.7%
1966: 3.0%, 4.9%
1967: 0.3%, 4.4%
1968: 5.3%, 5.9% |
The growth rate of Germany from 1933-39 is much more impressive. I think that's what he meant. That was about 10 years ago that I was taught that so these numbers might be significantly different.
He also might have been speaking of measuring employment instead. I know that the employment situation in Germany was the worst in the world and the Nazis created an extraordinary amount of jobs.
Another possibility is that he meant that the economic growth of Germany was the greatest up until that time.
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Pax
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My point in this argument is that a fascism is not necessarily bad or evil. Same with Republicans and Communists. It's just certain one's that give the whole group a bad name. Hitler, Ned, and Stalin.
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Comrade Tassadar
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quote: The Patriot Act enhances individual liberty by keeping us safe from terrorists. |
The Soviet Union enhanced liberty by keeping its people safe from capitalists.
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el freako
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Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999 time: 05:18
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Woah, the USSR had recessions? I never knew that. 1932 was probably caused by Collectivizations of the Kullaks and we know what caused the drop in 1941.
No growth during the war or did they just not keep statisitcs? |
Probably didn't keep the stats (from which these estimates are derived btw, the USSR never used GDP as a measure AFAIK)
It's also interesting to see the drop in 1963 and recovery in '64 - related to the cuban missile crisis, or the falling-out with China?
quote: Originally posted by Kidicious
Another possibility is that he meant that the economic growth of Germany was the greatest up until that time. |
Well, up until that point it was the fastest 6-year period of growth (8.1% average) - although interestingly the second fastest was under the Weimar Republic in 1923-29 (7.4%), and both those and the 6-year post-war recovery period to 1952 (14.0% average growth) came after large falls which skews the picture somewhat (a much better way is to look at the deviation from a trend)
Last edited by el freako on 23-11-2004 at 03:45
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Tripledoc
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The growth rates of Germany needs to be divided into infrastructure and consumption, and each subdivided into civilian and military, before a true picture emerges of how succesful a fascist economy can be.
Then the annual deficit has to be subtracted. Was it 50 percent of the budget that had no financial base at some point?
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Tripledoc
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious
But in a fascist system the state is only important, not the individuals. So the goal of the economy should be to benefit the state only. If a fascist system meets the goals of the state then it has been successfull, but if it has met the goals of individuals then it hasn't.
And the deficit really has not bearing on the situation at all. |
I can understand that argument, at least the first part.
However in Nazism the volk (the people/race) was the important factor. Hitler at some point stated that frugality was a hindrance to scientific and cultural progress of the volk. It is out of the organic volk that the culture is developing - not, as claimed by the Marxists which he hated, out of the state.
In that case if all the nations resources went the state, then the Hitlerite vision would not be succesful. Of course then it can be argued that Nazism was a corruption of Fascism, or a subset. That is also why he seeked out short decisive wars.
And I would say that a deficit is very important - especially because inflation set in before the war. When the Nazi territory expanded the Reichsmark became legal tender in the occupied territory, significantly reducing the effects of inflation - since the excess in money was made good by adding a larger area of circulation. It might then be said that the deficit was only important in that it meant war would be inevitable.
If for instance Nazi Germany had become involved in a long war in France, it would have meant that the German economy would have crashed very soon.
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