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Jon Miller
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Hmm
why is it that I have lived recently in all the major blue areas?
and only wish to live in blue areas?
Jon Miller
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:18
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Ukraine's postmodern coup d'etat
Yushchenko got the US nod, and money flooded in to his supporters
By Jonathan Steele
Oranges can often be bitter, and the mass street protests now going on in Ukraine may not be quite as sweet as their supporters claim.
LOTM - most in the West do not claim theyre "sweet" but do recognize they are based on real concerns about vote fraud.
For one thing the demonstrators do not reflect nationwide sentiments. Ukraine is riven by deep historical, religious and linguistic divisions. The crowds in the street include a large contingent from western Ukraine, which has never felt comfortable with rule from Kiev, let alone from people associated with eastern Ukraine, the home-base of Viktor Yanukovich, the disputed president-elect.
LOTM- im not sure west ukraine is uncomfortable with rule from Kiev, but certainly they are uncomfortable with rule from Russian dominated areas. This feeling seems to be reciprocated.
Their traditions are not always pleasant. Some protesters have been chanting nationalistic and secessionist songs from the anti-semitic years of the second world war.
LOTM - there are antisemites among Ukrainian nationalists, as there are among Russian nationalists. There are Ukrainian Jews on BOTH sides of this divide, and Yushenko has been influential in opposing antisemitism on his side. See todays article in Haaretz.
Nor are we watching a struggle between freedom and authoritarianism as is romantically alleged. Viktor Yushchenko, who claims to have won Sunday's election, served as prime minister under the outgoing president,
LOTM - - the western press has repeatedly mentioned this. I dont see the point Steele is trying to make.
Leonid Kuchma, and some of his backers are also linked to the brutal industrial clans who manipulated Ukraine's post-Soviet privatisation.
LOTM - everything ive read is that the Ukrainian industrial clans opposed Yushenko.
On some issues Yushchenko may be a better potential president than Yanukovich, but to suggest he would provide a sea-change in Ukrainian politics and economic management is naive. Nor is there much evidence to imagine that, were he the incumbent president facing a severe challenge, he would not have tried to falsify the poll.
LOTM - theres no proof Yusch WOULDNT have cheated if HE were the incumbent so this lessens the importance of the cheating taking place
Countless elections in the post-Soviet space have been manipulated to a degree which probably reversed the result, usually by unfair use of state television, and sometimes by direct ballot rigging. Boris Yeltsin's constitutional referendum in Russia in 1993 and his re-election in 1996 were early cases. Azerbaijan's presidential vote last year was also highly suspicious.
LOTM - Im not in position right now to question what Steele says about the Yeltsin referendums. He does not provide any sources. As for Azerbaijan, I thought everyone knew that place wasnt democratic. If the Azeri people rise in a peoples power revolution i would be sympathetic. But no one there asked for western observers, as far as I know. Of course its not in Europe, but Steele conveniently omits this. Im not sure if Russia was in the OSCE in 1996, and if anyone asked for observers.
Yet after none of those polls did the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the main international observer body, or the US and other western governments, make the furious noise they are producing today.
LOTM - er, probably cause there was no one in the streets protesting the elections, and there were no western observers. Steele assumes that it was a "A furious noise" from the west that started the ruckus, when it looks like the Ukrainians started it, forcing the West to respond.
The decision to protest appears to depend mainly on realpolitik and whether the challengers or the incumbent are considered more "pro-western" or "pro-market".
LOTM - we have protested undemocratic things across central asia, and in Tunisia, as well. But Im sure Steele could find ways of dismissing that, as some here have done. Evidently opponents of the West have NO requirement to be remotely even handed, but the West must be perfectly so.
In Ukraine, Yushchenko got the western nod, and floods of money
LOTM - how much Jonathan? Otherwise i disbelieve "floods" And how did it compare to support from Russia for the other guy?
poured in to groups which support him, ranging from the youth organisation, Pora, to various opposition websites.
LOTM - oh dear, they funded a website, a true coup 
More provocatively, the US and other western embassies paid for exit polls, prompting Russia to do likewise, though apparently to a lesser extent.
LOTM - and whats wrong with that? Especially as it turns out there was massive fraud, as documented in Mr Steeles own newspaper, this seems a wise precaution.
The US's own election this month showed how wrong exit polls can be.
LOTM - the difference between exit polls and election results were much wider in the Ukraine than in the US. In any case this is not the only evidence of fraud, as Mr. Steele implies.
But they provide a powerful mobilising effect, making it easier to persuade people to mount civil disobedience or seize public buildings on the grounds the election must have been stolen if the official results diverge.
LOTM - as Mr Steeles own paper has reported, the mobilization has had less to do with the exit polls, than with the consistent support of a bullied press for Yush's opponent, and widespread reports of intimidation and fraud.
Intervening in foreign elections, under the guise of an impartial interest in helping civil society, has become the run-up to the postmodern coup d'etat, the CIA-sponsored third world uprising of cold war days adapted to post-Soviet conditions. Instruments of democracy are used selectively to topple unpopular dictators, once a successor candidate or regime has been groomed.
LOTM - Hes talking out of his ass here. Private and semi private US groups give small amounts of money to local democrats, less than what their opponents get from Russia, and and they win an election based on their appeal, and this is a "coup". This is Orwellian.
In Ukraine's case this is playing with fire.
Not only is the country geographically and culturally divided - a recipe for partition or even civil war
IE because Ukraine could go to civil war, it would have been better to let the Yush opponent win. Of course this ignores the fact that civil war could occur anyway, and assumes that the divisions in the Ukraine are caused by the West, which Steele has failed to prove -failed because its incorrect.
- it is also an important neighbour to Russia.
LOTM - ah, theres the rub.
Putin has been clumsy, but to accuse Russia of imperialism because it shows close interest in adjoining states and the Russian-speaking minorities who live there is a wild exaggeration.
LOTM - i dont know of anyone in the west whos accused Putin of "imperialism" based on his "close interest". Though if you consider support for one side in an election a "Coup" as Mr. Steele does, its hard to avoid the notion that the much more heavy handed intervention from Russia, including possibly support for electoral fraud. is "imperialism". But you see its not cause imperialism is NOT defined by big powers messing with small ones, but whether they do so in their own backyard. Ya see its not really imperialism that Steele has a problem with, its globalism. Imperialism is justified against small countries that are enabling globalism.
Ukraine has been turned into a geostrategic matter not by Moscow but by the US,
LOTM - see above
which refuses to abandon its cold war policy of encircling Russia
LOTM - no that wasnt our cold war policy, but then Steele is what he is.
and seeking to pull every former Soviet republic to its side. The EU should have none of this.
LOTM - as far as I can tell it is the EU that is in the lead on this NOT the US, inconvenient though that is for Steeles theories.
Many Ukrainians certainly want a more democratic system. Putin is not inherently against this, however authoritarian he is in his own country. What concerns him is instability, the threat of anti-Russian regimes on his borders, and American mischief.
LOTM - Right, Putins ok with democracy as long as leaves a pro-Russian regime in place. The West by supporting democracy even if it leads to an antiwestern regime, is conducting mischief. This is (no surprise) identfical to the Stalinist argument for suppression in Eastern Europe from 1945 to 1989. Oh, and the mischief is American, no matter how much Europeans are doing it.
The EU should therefore press for a compromise in Kiev, which might include power-sharing.
LOTM - fine if thats what the Ukrainians want. Or a new election, if thats what they want.
More importantly, it should give Ukraine the option of future membership rather than the feeble "action plan" of cooperation currently on offer.
LOTM - er Mr Steele seems to have missed that Putin and the Putin backed candidate oppose Ukraines entry to the EU.
would set Ukraine on a surer path to irreversible reform than anything that either Yushchenko or Yanukovich may promise.
LOTM - I thought EU entry WAS part of Yush's platform.
Sceptics wonder where the EU's enlargement will end, but Ukraine is undoubtedly a European nation in a way that the states of the Caucasus, of central Asia and of north Africa are not.
The EU must also make a public statement that it sees no value in Nato membership for Ukraine, and those EU members who belong to Nato will not support it. At a stroke this would calm Russia's legitimate fears and send a signal to Washington not to go on inflaming a purely European issue.
LOTM - i dont think anyone in Washington is seriously pushing for Ukraine in NATO - that would be costly and a security pledge to Ukraine would not be popular here. But a statement to keep them out, would seem to leave them hanging, and would be viewed very unfavourably by many Ukrainians. Surely Putin should have to pay for such a statement, with guarantees of his own.
j.steele@guardian.co.uk
(who is now debunked)
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Serb
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Siberia, Communist party of Apolyton
Nov 2001
time: 11:18
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quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Serb: tireless Cossack apologist |
Like Cossacks need to be apologized.
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Serb
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Siberia, Communist party of Apolyton
Nov 2001
time: 11:18
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What's so great about Ruslana?
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Serb
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Siberia, Communist party of Apolyton
Nov 2001
time: 11:18
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quote:
Originally posted by Oerdin
Are you on crack?
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No and never tried actually.
quote:
Russia tried for the better part of a decade to take Chechnya before it succeeded while the US/UK took Iraq in 3 weeks. |
W T F are you talking about?
What decade?
It took several weeks to take it (I mean second war, not 1994).
quote:
That Iraq is 20 times plus the size of Chechnya |
Yeah, right. You forget one very important thing- terrain. Chechnya it is mountains and mountains it's a best terrain for partisan warfare. On the other hand, Iraq it's desert and desert it's a worst terrain for partisan warfare.
quote:
and that Iraq actually had a large national army only show how superior western armed forces are to Russia's armed forces. |
And what is your point?
19 months passed since you are there, and your enemy still can control large cities for months and now you actually experience greater resistance than when you fought vs. regular Iraqi army. On the other hand, Chechen insurgents were wipped out from all Chechen cities after several weeks of second war. And they never took any city or town under their control since then. There wasn't such intensive fighting in Chechnya after 19 months like we can see now in Iraq. There wasn't such fighting after 6 months actually.
quote:
Add in the fact that we transported and supplied our forces half a world away while Russia couldn't do the same on it's own door step and you'll see what a paper tiger Russia's military really is. |
Who told you Russia can't supply army in Chechnya? Not only we supplied this army, but already created and equipped strong police force there. Chechen police (most of the cops are locals, Chechens) is the bulk of of 80 000 Russian forces there and they do the most of the work now. There is only one motorized division of regular army stationed there now in Chechnya, because army did its work years ago.
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29-11-2004 02:50
Now that the Guardian agrees with me, how can I possibly state my POV without sounding like a complete moron? 
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