31-12-2004 23:14									#1
	Your Predictions for 2005 Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

I remember that new years predictions is a thread we have had in the past here in Apolyton, it was pretty good....

Post your predictions in 2005 for politics, economics, entertainment, or whatever.

Mine:

- Elections in Iraq will go off as planned. Violence will disrupt the elections in a few places, particularly in the Sunni triangle, however most Iraqis will still be able to manage to get their vote in. The Sistani list will win the elections, and the traditional power pattern will be reversed with a Shiite leading Iraq. Sunni Arab hostility to the government will continue, but the government will gain more legitimacy among the Shiite Majority, as well as among the Kurds. In spite of democratic elections, the European nations which opposed the war will still be extremely skeptical of the government and not help in any significant way. The Iraqi government is able to get more recruits from the Shiite and Kurdish areas, and fighting will continue as the government tries to assert control of it's country.

- The Asian central banks who are currently trying to push up the strength of the dollar will begin to diversify to try to avoid being caught with too many dollars when it goes down. The dollar plummets, people begin to demand higher interest rates. The US government is put in a situation where it needs to raise taxes or cut spending. Congress passes a deficit reduction bill will cuts spending to some degree, but isn't strong enough to actually stop the deficit, but does make it look politically like they are anti-deficit. Inflation occurs as a weakening dollar decreases imports. The world economy as a whole is hit as the USA imports less goods from it.

- Troubles will continue in Europe with tensions between Islamic immigrants and West European natives, however reluctance to address this issue among Europe's establishment parties prevents anything of substance from being done about this, and the size of the Islamic minority will continue to increase.

- In the USA, Bush will be able to get something similar to an amnesty through allowing additional immigration. Medical Malpractice reform is passed, we will probably see tax reform of some sort. A much more emboldened Republican majority will push through it's judges, using the "nuclear option" of disallowing filibusters for judicial confirmations if need be, the federal judiciary will get more conservative judges.

- In spite of Abbas replacing Arafat, Sharon and Abbas will be unable to come to any peace deal. Sharon will continue to push a plan of unilateral sepeartion, building up the wall between the parts of the West Bank Israel wants to keep and the parts that will be given to the Palestinians. The Gaza Strip will be withdrawn from.

- Saddam will be found guilty for atrocities committed during his regime, will be sentenced to death.

Anyone else want to try?

	31-12-2004 23:39									#2
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Your predictions are all very right wing. I don't think much of what you predict will happen.

	31-12-2004 23:41									#3
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Elections in Iraq will lead to a Shiite mayority in the consitutional assembly.Sunni turnout will be significantly bellow the turnout of other groups-violence will continue unabbated in the Sunni regions. The role of Islam in the state and the level of autonomy the Kurds get will be the two most contentious issues of the assembly.

Agree with Shi on the trade, econ, budget issues

Bush will push harder for ME peace process once Abbas is elected, given the poor sitution in Iraq and the need to seem active. Israel will leave Gaza, but not before mass protests by the right, and some violence from settlers as they are being removed. A couple of suicide attacks by Hamas and IJ likely.

NOTE: As for Shi's comment on Europes islamic Minority, it will continue to grow no matter what, given migratory and demographic patterns, and its not some sort of inherent problem.

	31-12-2004 23:44									#4
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I would think right wing predictions would be more like:

- Peace and Sunshine and love break out in Iraq, all problems in the mideast end, America to thank for new democracy

- Thanks to tax cuts, the US economy booms and grows a rate of 1000% per year

- France surrenders to Al Qaeda, briefly becoming an Islamic state before being nuked by the US.

- Homosexuality proved to be a conspiracy started by the UN to destroy religion.

	01-01-2005 00:02									#5
	Re: Your Predictions for 2005 Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi - The Asian central banks who are currently trying to push up the strength of the dollar will begin to diversify to try to avoid being caught with too many dollars when it goes down. The dollar plummets, people begin to demand higher interest rates. The US government is put in a situation where it needs to raise taxes or cut spending. Congress passes a deficit reduction bill will cuts spending to some degree, but isn't strong enough to actually stop the deficit, but does make it look politically like they are anti-deficit. Inflation occurs as a weakening dollar decreases imports. The world economy as a whole is hit as the USA imports less goods from it.

I don't think we are at a point where this is possible next year. That would be a desperate move by the Asian central banks.

	01-01-2005 00:05									#6
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Despite the new Palestenian leadership (I HOPE it's Abbas and not someone from Hamas), there's no visible progress in the ME, as terrorist attacks continue and the withdrawal plan continues.

After the Iraqi elections, the losing party protests and claims that the results have been falsified or influenced to suit the US.

Putin strengthens his authoritarian regime, passes constiution amendment to have him run for 3rd term, continues to get rid of private companies, as it is with Yukos. Khodorkovsky gets a jail sentence on some of those ridicilous charges.

Trouble in Iran. Iran comes to a big diplomatic conflict with US and possibly Israel because it will continue its nuclear program and come close to developing nukes.

Bush's rating drops after more accusations surface that he authorised/endorsed torture.

Private spaceflight looks better and better.

Breakthroughs are made in Europe concerning practical medical use of stem cell cloning.

Muslim influence in France increases, more acts of violence towards foreigners. France becomes more anti-US.

	01-01-2005 00:20									#7
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The US loses in Iraq. It might not be a devastating loss, but the US will be in a weaker position than if it had let Saddam Hussein be.

In short, people will look back on this year and wonder why the US simply didn't try to bring Saddam back into the fold like they have done with Gaddafi. Saddam desperately wanted this, and a lot less people would have died.

Bush's spending of his "election capital" will dominate the US scene and will further isolate the US from other developed countries who will (rightly in my view) see his policies as neanderthal. American liberals will get meaner and the left wing of the democratic party will predominate for good or ill.

Environmental crises will worsen and more people will realize that the nation state is simply inadequate to solve the world's problems any more.

A new rock band will appear (probably in the US) which will be responsible for reviving the moribund music scene, which is now dominated by hip hop. It will be like 1992 all over again.

Open source adoption will gather pace.

Malware through things like phones and portable music players will become a major scourge.

RIP Nelson Mandela.

	01-01-2005 00:22									#8
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Germany is finally accepted leading nation in Europe.

	01-01-2005 00:22									#9
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quote: A new rock band will appear (probably in the US) which will be responsible for reviving the moribund music scene, which is now dominated by hip hop. It will be like 1992 all over again.

Rock music dominating istead of hip hop . Wishful thinking.

	01-01-2005 00:23									#10
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People will continue to predict things in accordance with their ideology.

	01-01-2005 00:23									#11
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RIP:

Nelson Mandela, John Paul II, Fidel Castro

	01-01-2005 00:26									#12
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quote: People will continue to predict things in accordance with their ideology.

Look at my predictions, they are not in accordance with my ideology.

	01-01-2005 00:29									#13
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quote: Troubles will continue in Europe with tensions between Islamic immigrants and West European natives, however reluctance to address this issue among Europe's establishment parties prevents anything of substance from being done about this, and the size of the Islamic minority will continue to increase.

Anyone would think that Muslims constituted a majority of immigrants to Europe. I'll bet they don't.

	01-01-2005 00:29									#14
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I didn't say predictions that good things would happen.

	01-01-2005 00:37									#15
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I predict I will get a girlfriend.

	01-01-2005 00:43									#16
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From last year's thread.

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...50&pagenumber=2

Imran responded:

quote: quote: Return of the King will reach one billion dollars in revenue. VERY doubtful!

Wrong. ROTK is currently at about 1.15 billion worldwide.

As for my own.

I was wrong about Dean being nominated.

I was right that insurgent attacks would increase and that reporting of them would descrease (although it picked up just before Xmas).

In response to Bush raising gay marriage as an issue and thus winning the election.

"If this happens, or something like it, the US will become a pariah among developed states. Everyone else is getting progressive, the US is getting more mediaeval by the minute. Overt Anti Americanism becomes a sure fire vote winner everywhere except Britain and Israel."

That seems to be coming true. Spot on about the gay marriage thing from whoever predicted that though.

Let's look at the rest of mine:

quote: 1. The Liberals under Paul Martin win a landslide election in Canada. The New Democratic Party under Jack Layton wins so many votes that it becomes a de facto opposition party. Apart from those in the wilds of Alberta and Canada's hate criminals, nobody pays attention to the United Conservative Party.

Well this was too optimistic. The left vote went up in Canada, but the Liberals managed to hold on comfortably. I didn't predict the Bloc winning in Quebec. But the conservatives were indeed a miserable failure.

quote: 2. Howard Dean becomes the democratic nominee. He attempts to get Wesley Clark to be his running mate and has some difficulty doing so.

oops

quote: 3. US forces "find" Osama Bin Laden about a month or so before the election guaranteeing a Bush win. Bush takes the win as an opportunity to make new laws further restricting abortion.

Wrong on the first, we'll see on the second.

quote: 4. The rest of the world minus Israel and the desperate British Tories become even more politically and ideologically estranged from the United States.

Yep.

quote: 5. Newcastle United will not win a single football trophy.

Yep.

quote: 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs will falter in the third round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Second round, but accurate otherwise.

quote: 7. The advertising campaign for the Linux operating system will become more prevalent as will the presence of the OS and related OSS in the business world. The SCO suit will be exposed for the fraud that it is and that company will implode.

I think this is still happening. I have seen a lot of IBM ads for Linux, and the wheels do seem to be falling off of the SCO case.

quote: 8. Microsoft will announce further delays to its new "Longhorn" OS. Bill Gates will give away a lot of his own money.

Both true.

quote: 9. Apple Computer will announce that the new version of Mac OS X (codenamed "Hyena" or something equally embarrassing) will ship in the first quarter of 2005. Apple will release a new Office suite based on KOffice or some less elaborate alternative to replace the ageing Appleworks. Steve Jobs will appear to announce these things wearing a black mock turtleneck and blue jeans with no belt.

The Office thing is still rumoured, but OS X "Tiger" will be released in Q1 2005.

quote: 10. Apple will continue to dominate the online music business and the portable music player market. The ipod will continue to be the number one selling portable player mainly due to the fact that Apple will introduce a new low cost version at January's MacWorld Expo. At least one of the other "major" players in online music retail will go out of business (probably Napster, which by all accounts "sux").

This was pretty much on the ball.

	01-01-2005 00:47									#17
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quote: The elections will be nasty, both in the country and here in Poly.

I was spot on

quote: Things in afghanistan will deteriorate though not catastrophically.

This is questionable.

50% +, not bad.

Keep them short, keep the general- thats the way to go.

	01-01-2005 00:48									#18
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the elections weren't nasty. we've had far worse in the 19th century.

	01-01-2005 01:50									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident the elections weren't nasty. we've had far worse in the 19th century.

Those two things do not compute- something can be nasty even if nastier things have happened before.

	01-01-2005 02:09									#20
	Last time, I think I got zero correct... I wonder how these'll go now. Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: I predict I will get a girlfriend.

Don't predict -- make that your new year's resolution.

quote: Khodorkovsky gets a jail sentence on some of those ridicilous charges.

Yep, getting charged from not paying your taxes, that sure is ridiculous...

quote: Muslim influence in France increases, more acts of violence towards foreigners. France becomes more anti-US.

Is it even possible (I assume we're talking about the public opinion here)?

quote: Despite the new Palestenian leadership (I HOPE it's Abbas and not someone from Hamas), there's no visible progress in the ME, as terrorist attacks continue and the withdrawal plan continues.

With Sharon's plans to withdraw from Gaza with honour (as opposed to the disastrous, in a way provocative withdrawal from Lebanon), I think there is now truly an unique chance to form a peace between Israel and the Palestinians by shuttle diplomacy. I hope Sonny Bush won't let this opportunity to slip by.

Economies of France, Germany, Spain and Italy continue to deteriorate (deficits increase while GDP growth is <1%). Finland ends up being the only country in the whole Eurozone upkeeping a budget surplus. No progress whatsoever made regarding the farm subsidies.

Sunshine diplomacy with Iran fails somehow, making the EU diplomacy the laughing stock of the whole world, greatly decreasing our credibility among other countries.

EDIT: Added smiley.

	01-01-2005 02:46									#21
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1) Leftism will suffer another major failure after the 2004 Election.

2) Iraqi elections will go as planned, proving leftists and critics wrong. The same people who complained that the Afghan elections would never work out... will be proven wrong... once again.

3) Dollar begins to pick up and strengthen, and US economy will continue to strengthen, while the EU continues to weaken. The French economy tatters near recession once again

4) All of Saddam's men put on trial will be summarily executed after swift trial, along with Saddam later. His collegues are getting tried first. The left wing cries and comes to the defense of Saddam (says he should not be executed because they are against the death penalty [but in reality love Saddam])

5) Apple leaves computing business after the G5 continues to prove a complete business failure (I hope)

6) Verizon will merge with another cell phone company (after the Sprint/Nextel and Cingular/AT&T this is bound to happen)

	01-01-2005 03:08									#22
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I predict I will wake up, do a bunch of stuff and then go back to sleep. Roughly 360 times.

	01-01-2005 03:30									#23
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Education in Arkansas will marginally improve as things trudge ahead.

My city will be hit with a major employer offering to buy an existing building around the city and bring 100s of jobs. Let's all knock on wood or whatever and hope for this one, because it hasn't happened in many years and we're just withering away down here.

Real estate prices will increase, crime rates will drop. The average debt of an American will increase. Inflation will be more than we would like. The dollar will continue to decline, but never at catastrophic levels. GDP will rise, but unemployment and average income may stay the same or go slightly worse. Republicans will trumpet rising GDP as a sign of the obvious recovery. Democrats will focus on unemployment and average income more than a starved squirrel focuses on the last nut on Earth.

The New York Yankees and the St Louis Cardinals, sharing the responsibility for letting, of all teams, the Red Sox win the World Series, will not win a WS ever again, having been officially declared the saddest group of sorry failures ever to come together in any sport. Nothing's coming up in my crystal ball about Boston, though.

Global warming will produce strange weather in many regions of the world, but the take on it by each party will be the same as it always has been, and always will be until the oceans are boiling away and the average winter temperature in Minnesota is 75 F.

The Republicans will continue to do evil things. The Democrats will continue to be too weak or too centrist to stop them.

Kuci will make a wiseass comment about how I'm predicting things based on my ideology, at which point I will hunt him down, tie him up, and force him to watch marathons of Full House, with the only commercial being that Geico soap opera one, over, and over, and over again. He will emerge from this torture as a battered shell, but then you shouldn't point out obvious things.

	01-01-2005 03:41									#24
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quote: Originally posted by The Emperor Fabulous Your predictions are all very right wing. I don't think much of what you predict will happen.

Well, guess what dude. We had a right wing year for 2004. Anything can happen.

	01-01-2005 03:48									#25
	I predict. . . Inflate your Upload Space

I predict I will start school next year.

I predict I will make some money next year.

I predict that Saddam Hussein will go on trial next year.

I predict that the ball will drop on New Year's Eve next year.

I predict...

I predict...

I predict...
















I predict that the Rapture of the Church will happen next year! Yay!!!
























Just kidding date setters.

	01-01-2005 05:21									#26
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MNG will continue to be a two-trick pony.

	01-01-2005 05:47									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Ecthelion Germany is finally accepted leading nation in Europe.

Allah korsun

quote: Yep, getting charged from not paying your taxes, that sure is ridiculous...

Isn't it a funny coincidence that the Cremlin discovered he wasn't paying taxes just after Chodorkowski supported the opposition?


My predictions:
someone fameous will die (perhaps JPII, unf)
New deadly disease will appear somewhere in Asia or Africa
Some natural cataclism will happen in Africa
USA will be even more hated through the world
Muslim fundamentalists will gain more strenght,
perhaps overthrowing some political regime in ME
Polish political scene will suck even more than today
I will drown in lazyness and apathy as usual but will pass another year of studies
No important problems of the world shall be solved next year

	01-01-2005 06:42									#28
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quote: Yep, getting charged from not paying your taxes, that sure is ridiculous...

It's not that simple there, at all. The lawsuit is complicated by the fact that actions of Khodorkovsky can not just be considered illegal as not paying taxes. It's bit late, so I can't go into specifics now, but it has a lot to do with the laws changing rapidly when Russia became a country after USSR's collapse.

quote: With Sharon's plans to withdraw from Gaza with honour (as opposed to the disastrous, in a way provocative withdrawal from Lebanon), I think there is now truly an unique chance to form a peace between Israel and the Palestinians by shuttle diplomacy. I hope Sonny Bush won't let this opportunity to slip by.

I agree that the situation will likely look better for the peace process, provided nothing goes wrong at Palestenian elections, but I still do not believe that any sort of resolution will be reached, with Bush or without. And in all honesty, Bush doesn't strike me as a great intelligent leader who could maybe help the situation - he's not a great politician, IMHO, such as Churchill, Thatcher, Gorbachev, etc.

	01-01-2005 06:43									#29
	Full PM-box? Change here!

1) Bush passes Social Security "reform" which insures Social Security will be bankrupt with in 15 years.

2) Bush and the Republicans increase the already monumental deficit thus causing the dolllar to sink ever lower.

3) No improvement in Iraq after the elections and the pace of things might actually increase.

4) With luck Rumsfield will finally be fired though he will claim he just wants to retire.

5) The economy of the EU will either stagnate or go into recession since the low dollar will eat into their exports. Most of continental western Europe still won't engage in meaningful economic reform so stagnation and high unemployment will reign.

	01-01-2005 07:29									#30
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I'll have a baby girl in August. arty: