15-01-2005 10:21									#151
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Sent.

	15-01-2005 10:26									#152
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I'm seeing an large allied attack on the horizon....at this stage this means death......

	15-01-2005 10:38									#153
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It's not good to have the most bases, eh?

	15-01-2005 12:26									#154
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gah, in forum games like this, optimal powering is not an good idea, at least in the early parts of the game considering how players are trying to lynch opponents more than trying to expand safely...........

	15-01-2005 12:49									#155
	Full PM-box? Change here!

There will be plenty of time to expand bases once the galaxy is cleared. We need some lebensrum, afterall.

	15-01-2005 12:58									#156
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MORON-

Capturing bases can be cheaper than building them, but attacking means you don't get to build shields or spies.

In the first game of Galactic Overlord, I started out very aggressively, capturing bases on the first two turns. By then a number of other players recognized the threat and sent in allied assaults while blocking further invasions with spies.

	15-01-2005 13:38									#157
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If the elimation of TheBen shows anything, there is no way of surviving when you are on the hit list. TheBen went for an full ship build strategy, together with an decent OOB but 2:1 odds is simply impossible. For an 100% 1st turn victory, just have allies send around 50bp lasers with close in, spread out, LL???? OOB, fight to death, and there is no possible counter with 32bp ships that'd make it to turn two. There are other combos that work (with less losses), but that is the general idea.

Even the fastest expanders can't deal with an 2 player gang up by turn 3 or so, without resorting to shields.

While I can't say I have an good shot at winning (actually, I don't, since I'm a FG forum noob without many friends here to act as natural allies) I'm petty sure I can screw any particular player I want if I planned for it at the start.... At this point I can screw at least 1 out of half the players here, or have around 30% chance at screwing anyone in the other half. (who probably went for 1st turn shield build, so I can only hit on second turn attackers)

Posting this much would probably attract too much attention. Gah if only there is an build/fighting strategy that can ensure victory. Against an group of first timers in an 3 player game I'd estimate my chance of winning at 50%, but against folks here I think I'm below avg.

Last edited by MORON on 15-01-2005 at 13:49

	15-01-2005 14:01									#158
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Oh, just an note, optimal powering means powering up that matchs return x probability. The mutual first turn attacks shows that the goals where elimating each other from play rather than playing safe. The safe strategy would be 31bp ship + shield, and 2nd shield or 2nd turn attack on weakened sides.

While if one wants to play an do or die game on turn one (since one can semi-quit if it fails), one should stick to fleet distributions that uses lack of warning and OOB to result in an better chance at cracking an attacker/defender. An mainly laser+close in or fighter+torp +back off would be an better build than an 1/3 + 1/3 +1/3 build.... An good guess would allow 16bp to beat an unprepared 32bp fleet and beat most 16bp fleets. This is especially true against fairly new players that would certainly not do any math and instinctively go for 1/3+1/3+1/3 build.

Well, I guess I can only be glad that the game didn't consolidate by 1/3 by turn 1, since what is what would happen if most players play do or die and allies....

	15-01-2005 16:41									#159
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Orders Sent

	15-01-2005 17:41									#160
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You can do what Kassi did last game, MORON- build an alliance and constantly attack so your ships are on the move. The alliance will insure that you have some people you don't have to worry about (assuming, of course, they don't stab you in the back) and will distract your enemies, possibly long enough for you to regroup and rebuild.

That in mind Kassi didn't win last time, but he did stay alive longer than he should have.

	15-01-2005 19:32									#161
	Increase Your PM Length

Sent.

	15-01-2005 21:37									#162
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Yes, that is the one upside of attacking constantly- you have to lose two battles in a round to be wiped out.

14/16
Waiting for Lord Nuclear and Jonny. PM's have been sent to both.

Attachment: trek_vs_wars.jpg
This has been downloaded 99 time(s).

	15-01-2005 21:38									#163
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I sent them already... did you not receive them?

	15-01-2005 21:57									#164
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whoops. I do have em. In which case, Lord Nuclear,

	15-01-2005 22:57									#165
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Just process the turn without his orders. Probably nobody attacked him anyway.

	15-01-2005 23:04									#166
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quote: Originally posted by Ljube-ljcvetko Just process the turn without his orders. Probably nobody attacked him anyway.

The last in, first to fight rule makes it impossible to process without having all orders.

Anyway, right now I don't have enough time to process the turn, since I'm heading out to San Francisco in an hour.

	15-01-2005 23:19									#167
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Crap, sorry. For some reason I thought I had already sent them, because this thread was marked as read. I'll give them soon.

	15-01-2005 23:35									#168
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I accept Ljube's alliance.

	15-01-2005 23:49									#169
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maybe it is time for final revisions ... :hmm:

	16-01-2005 00:12									#170
	Tired of ads?

if you're going to make them,

	16-01-2005 00:19									#171
	Got spare money?

Alright, times up.

Jonny, Spaced Cowboy, Lord Nuclear, and Sandman: you guys can all go back to sleep.

Everyone else: Battle stations!

Full details in a few hours.

	16-01-2005 00:28									#172
	Suffering from ads?

damn, I knew it......

but living by attacking isn't really an winning strategy, since someone would get the bases in the end, and it is more like an crap shoot with the guy that ends up with the bases in the end that wins. It is hard to get above avg. win chance when chaos happens, unless one secure lots of allies.....which I'm not good at

	16-01-2005 00:42									#173
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Zzzzz.....

	16-01-2005 01:53									#174
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Strange, people are really trying to elimate the strong rather than the weak...... The single base builders are weak on turn two though there is an chance of shield. (which do have a chance of cripping attackers)

I guess all the first turn attackers will get attacked....

Certain attackers:
Drspike, kass, skanky

very high chance of allied attack.....

Almost certain attackers:
Sparrowhawk, GB64, Luj, Joncha,

Certain Targets:
Me , Jamski

Almost Certain Targets:
PaddytheScot

Ambigious:
Atragon

Attacker Defender Ratio estimate:
7.5: 3.5 ~ 2:1

Chance of Survival at this turn: ~35%
Chance of winning: Trivial due to being target early

	16-01-2005 02:20									#175
	Remove this text

Oh Oh!

	16-01-2005 02:38									#176
	Inflate your Upload Space

I think MORON is over analyising this.

He has a HIGH chance of survival due to don't being involved in one of the on-going feuds in the FG world. He's not on anyone's "hit list" yet.

-Jam

	16-01-2005 02:59									#177
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I'm an pessimist.....but I guess there is some chance of base swaps.

I just don't really think people attack unless they are sure they can either catch one off guard (1-frig attack?) or win outright. (allied attack) I'm estimating based on 1-frig attack chances.

If people do attack with only 50-50 odds......they should be considered suiciders since an true loss would result in certain turn three/four death most likely.

	16-01-2005 03:04									#178
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Gah, Jamski is deity and I'm warlord even if I signed up 1year earier!?!? (and had an dl hear before, for civ3 suggestion posting, which I lost password of?)

*works for +1* I really have to stop lurking damn it :doitnow:

	16-01-2005 03:11									#179
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At the rate you're going in this thread, you'll be a deity in no time.

	16-01-2005 03:19									#180
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quote: Originally posted by MORON Gah, Jamski is deity and I'm warlord even if I signed up 1year earier!?!? (and had an dl hear before, for civ3 suggestion posting, which I lost password of?) *works for +1* I really have to stop lurking damn it :doitnow: