21-01-2005 06:37									#31
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Not both. One of the two (probably China)...

	21-01-2005 06:50									#32
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

C-I-what?

	21-01-2005 06:56									#33
	Tired of ads?

eh?

	21-01-2005 06:59									#34
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara There is a growing movement in the U.S. to build a more European modeled economy...

In what sense?

	21-01-2005 07:03									#35
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Wasn't it the CIA that said there were Weapons of Mass Distruction in Iraq

	21-01-2005 07:04									#36
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by Ming Wasn't it the CIA that said there were Weapons of Mass Distruction in Iraq

It was some people in the CIA, and even they qualified it with a, but we have no proof. It was the NSA that excised the more cautious bits from the main report on the subject, and now they want to put the person who was responsible for that in charge of State.

I just have to spend the next four years trying not to pay attention to American politics.

	21-01-2005 07:06									#37
	Got spare money?

So, this is from the same CIA that failed to forsee the break-up of the USSR and predicted a continued rise of Japan

Europe's population growth has consistantly been underestimated - forecasts made in the 1980's predicted falling population by now when in fact there is accelerating population growth (in the 5 years to 2003 the EU15's population rose by 7.6m up from a 5.1m rise in the previous 5 years).
Forecasts today again predict that populations will start to fall in 20 years time - with their previous track record I would take that with a pinch of salt.

I very much doubt that europe's population growth rate will differ very much from the 0.9% a year less than north america's that it has averaged over the last century (in the last 5 years the gap has been 0.7%)

	21-01-2005 07:07									#38
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Originally posted by Trajanus I don't know if other Belgians like Colon will agree, but for me population density here already is way too high.

You don't know what population density is, dude.

	21-01-2005 07:14									#39
	Suffering from ads?

quote: So, this is from the same CIA that failed to forsee the break-up of the USSR and predicted a continued rise of Japan

It should be noted that Japan's rise was arrested by the very factors that this report predicts will reverse the rise of the EU...

	21-01-2005 07:16									#40
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: So, this is from the same CIA that failed to forsee the break-up of the USSR and predicted a continued rise of Japan It should be noted that Japan's rise was arrested by the very factors that this report predicts will reverse the rise of the EU...

High labor and welfare costs? I wasn't aware that Japan was noted for its welfare system, and while high labor costs did play a part, I thought it was really bad, government secured loans that played more of a problem with their economy.

	21-01-2005 07:16									#41
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten It should be noted that Japan's rise was arrested by the very factors that this report predicts will reverse the rise of the EU...

What? the bursting of a financial bubble?

	21-01-2005 07:24									#42
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

The CIA also gets a cookie for finding this out:

quote: "The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Of course, most of us knew that anyway for some years......

	21-01-2005 07:34									#43
	Full PM-box? Change here!

What do the Keystone Spys have to say about the EU's WMD?

	21-01-2005 07:37									#44
	Put an end to popups!

I think that the effects of aging population will be pretty similar in both the EU and US because whilst the EU has a worse demographic situation the US situation is adversely affected by four factors:

1. The exhorbitant cost of US healthcare.
Healthcare costs in the US are higher, and rising faster than in europe - both the EU's and US's governments spend a similar proportion of GDP on healthcare (around 6.5% to 7%) but the US's system only covers the poor, old and government employees.
As population ages in the US it will see a far larger rise in the cost of it's public healthcare system than europe.

2. Differences in the tax system.
A much higher proportion of US taxation is obtained by taxing income, whereas the EU relies more on taxing spending (via things like VAT or 'sin' taxes) - as retirees have no taxable income but do continue to spend this means that an aging population will have less effect on the tax base in the EU than in the US.

3. The EU starts from a much better fiscal position.
After Bush's tax-cuts and spending splurge the US's structural budget deficit (i.e. that which would happen if the US economy was performing at 'trend') is around 4% of GDP whereas the EU's is around 1%. This means that the EU has more option to increase borrowing to fund pensions than the US does.

4. The US's superpower status.
The US will face the fiscal problems of it's own aging at exactly the time that it is likely to face a serious military challenge from China - if China starts an arms race the US will find it very hard to keep up. The EU faces no significant challengers like this so we will be unlikely to need to increase our defence spending anything like as much.

	21-01-2005 07:39									#45
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: High labor and welfare costs? I wasn't aware that Japan was noted for its welfare system

I don't know if it's "noted" for its welfare state, but Japan has a pretty extensive one.

quote: What? the bursting of a financial bubble?

The bubble burst 15 years ago. Do you really think that's what's holding Japan back now?

	21-01-2005 07:41									#46
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara The conservative cry: throw the elderly to the wolves! This is BS.

No, repeat after me:Helicopters.

	21-01-2005 07:45									#47
	Inflate your Upload Space

quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten The bubble burst 15 years ago. Do you really think that's what's holding Japan back now?

err, let me think.

YES!

the bubble cause the bad debts at the banks - the bad debts at the banks cause the 'zombie' corporations.


It is very easy to show that the bubble caused more damage than Japan's aging population - just compare GDP growth per person of working age in the 1970's, 1980's and 1990's:

1970s: 3.6%
1980s: 3.2%
1990s: 1.3%

Working age population in Japan grew 0.7% a year slower during the 1990's than in the 1970s' and 1980's - but GDP grew 2.8% slower.
So demographics accounted for around a quarter of Japan's slowdown - hardly a ringing endorsement of your views eh?

	21-01-2005 07:45									#48
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

Why would you throw helis to the wolves?

	21-01-2005 07:49									#49
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Japan's problems are due to entrenched structural problems with the economy that have not and probably never will be dealt with because the price of reform is deemed to be too high. Compare that to Germany and see if you find any similarities...

quote: So demographics accounted for around a quarter of Japan's slowdown - hardly a ringing endorsement of your views eh?

I don't believe I ever said demographics were the main cause of Japan's economic woes. Might be good to actually know what a person's views are before we attack them, eh?

	21-01-2005 07:55									#50
	Inflate your Upload Space

Now that is more like it.

Yes Germany has similar problems (but not on quite the scale, and Germany's productivity growth hasn't collapsed like Japan's)

But you are deluding yourself if you think that Germany=EU, Germany accounts for only a fifth of the EU's GDP and population.

And even with that Germany's GDP per head has still grown faster than the US's over the last decade or so - GDP per head at PPPs in 1990 was 70% of the US level, by 2002 it was 73% not bad for one of the worst-performing members of the EU during that period (which went from 69% to 74%)

	21-01-2005 08:04									#51
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Now that is more like it.

I didn't really say anything different...

quote: But you are deluding yourself if you think that Germany=EU, Germany accounts for only a fifth of the EU's GDP and population.

Again, I never said Germany=EU. It's just a convenient example of Japanese-style economic problems at work in a European country.

	21-01-2005 08:25									#52
	Full PM-box? Change here!

The CIA is such a joke. Since they predicted the collapse of the EU, it'll likely deepen and actually become a state. What, do they actually forsee a perpetual recession? Please.

	21-01-2005 08:44									#53
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Maybe it will just be the chinese embassies that will collapse...

	21-01-2005 10:37									#54
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Originally posted by Whoha No, repeat after me:Helicopters.

helicopters

	21-01-2005 11:26									#55
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Meh. India and China will PWN us both in a century.

Not really. NAFTA incorporates half a billion people. Half a billion people who are nice and safe and snug in isolation from nearby dangers. Half a billion people who enjoy massive mineral and biological wealth. We'll do fine, thanks very much for your concern though.

That isn't counting the expansion that could be made by extending trade bloc relationships further South.

Really, you Yanks should start to pay more attention to the world your media doesn't lead you by the nose to.

	21-01-2005 11:34									#56
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Latin America isn't "nice and safe and snug in isolation from nearby dangers." It's unstable. Suffers from coups and revolutions and the like.

	21-01-2005 11:35									#57
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Not Mexico.

	21-01-2005 11:36									#58
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Recently.

	21-01-2005 11:37									#59
	Get a bigger avatar today!

There are two armed guerilla movements in Mexico, and ten years ago this month, their currency collapsed.

	21-01-2005 11:44									#60
	Inflate your Upload Space

I had heard of one in the far south. I also seem to recall a crisis in Sweden sometime around ten years ago. Seems it was like a flu was going around at the time. Even the yen was affected.

Aside from Mexico's internal problems, which I have never heard anything to suggest were significant, just who is going to **** with this continent while the Pax America holds?

Like I said, nice and safe and snug and able to grow.