25-01-2005 13:10									#121
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Go on and whistle past the graveyard, Ted. You're good at that.

	25-01-2005 13:10									#122
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If you say so champ.

	25-01-2005 15:38									#123
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I haven't read this assessment but the CIA is on quite safe ground predicting break up of the EU in the timeframe they suggest. Europe doesn't exactly have very good form for unity over the past century or even the last millenia. Any professional assessment would have to conclude that on past performance European countries will eventually divide again.

What could cause that? Look at the history.

Firstly old rivalries - the history of Europe is the history of one country or another wanting to be top dog and other countries forming alliances to counterbalance the emerging hegemon. Russia looks to me like the state most likely to unravel EU unity in the next 20 years - either from the inside or the outside.

Secondly, uneven economic development is becoming a real problem as the EU expands - it is possible that the advanced group could decide to break away from the rest - or the less developed could drag the others down i.e. the EU becomes too expensive and economically counter productive. Why should Germany prop up Greece or Bulgaria? We have already seen such tensions over the Euro. Italy lied to its partners about actions by its Central Bank.

Thirdly noone in Europe loves Brussels and it centralising impulse. It would not take much for the EC or the European parliament to go too far. Countries like Britain are not going to stay in the EU if they believe that the Commission or the European Parliament has lost the plot. Traditional British policy was to stand aloof from Europe.

Its unlikely that a "United States of Europe" is going to emerge, but it is possible. But meanwhile the USA will have probably continued to steam ahead.

	26-01-2005 00:40									#124
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Oh, sh*t, the CIA has fallen this far into vassalage to the neocons?

	26-01-2005 01:53									#125
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I thought CIA was purged already few months ago from terrorist anti-Bush elements?

quote: Sadly the very core problem of the EU, its lack of real foresight has meant that this option will not be available if its needed. The 'Norway to kill 25% of wolf population' being the appropriate story.

Exactly what in common are the two (the "problem" and the story) having with each other?

	26-01-2005 04:09									#126
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The thing is we have been here before,

Two decades ago the EEC (as it then was) was being written off - the arguments (especially over the budget) were seemingly never-ending and progress was hampered by all nations having a veto, most of the spending went to farming concerns and the countries were split by differences in how they dealt with the US and USSR (mainly over things like cruise and pershing missile deployments).
And with the impending accession of significantly-poorer-than-average Spain and Portugal (to add Greece's accession in 1981) many were of the opinon that the EEC would be doomed to little more than a talking shop.

Out if this 'crisis' period has come free movement of goods, capital and labour throughout much of the EU, a large deepening of the political structure, a single trade policy to the rest of the world (with a single representative negociating for all EU countries), majority voting in many area's of EU policymaking, a common competition policy within the EU (and indeed extending outside it to effect US companies as well), not to mention a single currency for the vast majority of member states.

I very much doubt that the current 'crisis' will have a different effect than the previous one - i.e. when we have a 'crisis' here in the EU the net effect are reforms which make it stronger not weaker.

Last edited by el freako on 26-01-2005 at 04:15