 |
| |
|
|
Drake Tungsten
|
 |
Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:29
|
|
quote:
CIA gives grim warning on European prospects
NICHOLAS CHRISTIAN
THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.
The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
It adds that the EUfs economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".
Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".
The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.
The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."
As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europefs Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.
The report predicts that Americafs relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.
"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."
Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.
The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and Indiafs prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".
For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".
Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".
The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 Chinafs gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. Indiafs GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.
Because of the sheer size of Chinafs and Indiafs populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.
The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020. |
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005
Sounds about right. I don't think Europe has the will necessary to effectively deal with the pressing demographic and economic problems facing the continent. Even the potential pooling of resources through the EU isn't going to be enough to stop Europe from falling further behind America and being eclipsed by more vigorous Asian countries. And who knows what will happen once that reality sets in?
|
|
| |
|
|
|
MRT144
|
|
Seattle Washington
Oct 2002
time: 21:29
|
|
unless europe starts buying america like asia has...
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
Traianvs
|
 |
Belgium, land of plenty (corruption)
Jan 2000
time: 06:29
|
|
We all know the CIA gives "trustworthy" information, so they just gotta be correct on this one!
Seriously, Europe is overpopulated already, and taking in more and more people in is not an option. I don't know if other Belgians like Colon will agree, but for me population density here already is way too high. Our world, and in particular our region can't support this population forever; sure for now we succeed, but anybody can see that this is impossible to remain like this throughout the next century or so.
quote:
THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems. |
What a joke. Take Belgium's welfare system for example. Sure we have to pay a lot of taxes, but the percentage of our budget spent on medical welfare for example is lower than that of the US, and our system is like.. way better. Sure it'll be hard to sustain the system with an aging population.
On the other hand that's simply a temporary problem. What happens is that we'll be facing this problem in the near future, but after that there is a period in which we'll have a lower population (lower birthrates) in which we'll be able to keep up the costs. If society stays like it is now (highly unlikely) the phenomenon will be fluctuating.
Importing people from other countries just increases the problem. The more people, the more old people yo uwill have, especially in highly developed countries like ours, where people have a good chance of getting really old. I don't think we actually want to increase the population. In fact we should try to decrease it, worldwide too.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Drogue
|
 |
Omnipresent conscience
Oct 2002
time: 05:29
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
quote:
was completely unnecessary, since without any information, let alone evidence, it's impossible to say that it will. |
No one said that it will (except maybe the CIA). I said it could happen and I stand by my statement. The health of welfare systems affects the general economic health of a country and unhealthy economies amongst EU member states could definitely lead to problems for the Union. |
Yes, but declaring that some is "too dense to understand that economic troubles in member countries could lead to weakness, tension and possible strife in the EU" just because they don't think it will generally implies that you do think it will. I think it could, though I think it unlikely. Moreover, even if I thought it would, but was not sure, I wouldn't declare someone was dense for believeing otherwise, as you did. You also stated that you agreed with the article, which implies you agreed with the statement the CIA made in it.
I wasn't saying you were wrong, but your blind dismissal and insult of someone who thinks you probably are seems overtly agressive, unnecessary and rather silly, to me.
|
|
| |
All times are GMT. The time now is 05:29.
Apolyton Time is 00:29. |
top of page
|
| archivepost |
|
Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
|
|
|
|
|
|
21-01-2005 05:18
)
|
|