01-03-2005 01:12									#31
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quote: Egypt has announced they will end to 24 year old "state of emergency" which gave Mubarrak dictatorial powers plus it will now be legal for other candidates to run for office

Nope, he didn't say anything about ending the emergency laws. He did say there will be multiple people on the ballot for President, but no other office. It seems likely that Mubarak will screen the opposition. All in all, nominal.

quote: the Palestinian people actually held their first competitive election which wasn't rigged by Yasser Arafat's cronies

Keep in mind that that's mostly because a certain person died. Probably has nothing to do with Iraq.

Also, Hamas boycotted the national elections, but didn't in the elections for Gaza. And they won big there.

quote: Saudi Arabia held its first elections ever (though only for city level officials)

Only for half of the city-councils. And similarly, Islamists won big.

There's a basic problem, in that we've been backing these nasty dictators in destroying the left. And it pretty much is destroyed. The opposition to these dictatorships nowadays are almost invariably Islamists. In Egypt, for instance, the grand-daddies of Islamism, the Muslim Brotherhood, will be the likely alternative to Mubarak. And we've done absolutely nothing to repair that sad state of affairs. In Iraq (see our trade union policy) and elsewhere.

	01-03-2005 01:12									#32
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO You know, some people believe that freeedom is worth dying for...I know our forefathers did.

Which is why they had slaves to wait on them hand and foot.

	01-03-2005 01:13									#33
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My personal take is that Iraq had next to nothijng to do with it but pressure from Bush and Blair has been the controlling factor. If Syrian troops can be pushed out of Lebonon before the summer's election then it is likely a moderate government will take power there and it will seek to sign a peace treaty with Israel. That will leave Syria as the only one of Israeli's neighbors still officially at war with them. I truly believe that would be a solid step forward towards ending the Arab-Israeli conflict just because it would create a government which will crack down on terror organizations instead of the current Syrian backed government which vigorously supports terrorist groups.

Of course the big issue continues to be Al Qaeda and Osama bin Ladin both of which have seen their popularity sky rocket in the muslim world since the invasion of Iraq. I'm not sure that moderate democratic reforms will be able to over come the huge gaff Bush made in Iraq.

	01-03-2005 01:13									#34
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quote: Originally posted by Dr Strangelove The idea of testing the waters for democratic reform in Saudi Arabia preceded the invasion of Iraq. You might as well credit Osama Bin Laden. The Saudi government is genuinely afraid of al-Quaida, andf are hoping to steal some of Osama's wind by pernitting some democratic reforms. The US government has also been advocating democratic reform for quite some time also. The Saudi's are going about it very cautiously though as they don't want to wind up like the Shah of Iran. The recent progress in Palestine I think you can attribute to the passing of Yassir Arafat. Everything just seemed to begin to sanp in place after his ffuneral didn't it? Evidently he's done more for the Palestinian psople in death than in life.

No doubt, Strangelove, the US has long advocated "human rights." What is new about the Bush doctrine is that we see the quest for democracy as the only hope for permanent peace. That is a distinction with a difference.

	01-03-2005 01:15									#35
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Oerdin, you might also add Georgia and the Ukraine to Bush's victory list. Bush stood strong for democracy in both places at a time when the forces of democracy needed support.

	01-03-2005 01:15									#36
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quote: Originally posted by DanS If you want to include Iraq as a democratic revolution, then that costs some $50 billion + per annum.

You are off by about $100 billion.

	01-03-2005 01:22									#37
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Overturning a fixed election. What's your definition of a democratic revolution?

Promoting a democratic election. My definition is not replacing an undemocratic corrupt hack by another one.

	01-03-2005 01:26									#38
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I don't think I would credit Bush for much in the Ukraine since it was the Ukrainians who did all the heavy lifting and with the EU being far more vocal then the US. US and EU pressure (including the EU threatening sanctions which Bush didn't do) did help in Georgia though.

Last edited by Oerdin on 01-03-2005 at 02:36

	01-03-2005 01:29									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin My personal take is that Iraq had next to nothijng to do with it but pressure from Bush and Blair has been the controlling factor.

And that's actually the right way to do things. I continue not to believe the whole "democracy at gunpoint" meme, and I expect Iraq to need continuous pressure and support so that its democracy becomes sustainable, just like the undemocratic institutions of the other ME countries will require pressure, while their democratic opposition will require support.

	01-03-2005 01:30									#40
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OK, that's the affirmative case, which I think the Ukraine satisfies. Are you under the impression that an undemocratic corrupt hack was voted in?

	01-03-2005 01:32									#41
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quote: You are off by about $100 billion.

Iraq costs $150 billion per annum? That seems rather high. At a minimum, I ask you to show your figures.

	01-03-2005 01:34									#42
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quote: Originally posted by Ned No doubt, Strangelove, the US has long advocated "human rights." What is new about the Bush doctrine is that we see the quest for democracy as the only hope for permanent peace. That is a distinction with a difference.

Errrrrr.........That was Carter's policy as well, and the results were...

Neither Palestine, Saudi Arabia, or Lebanon are out of the woods yet. If "democrtatic" changes have an undesired effect we may yet see a change in policy.

	01-03-2005 01:39									#43
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Few are losing their lives in most of these revolutions.

Iraq makes up for it a lot. Over 100 dead today.

	01-03-2005 01:41									#44
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quote: Originally posted by DanS OK, that's the affirmative case, which I think the Ukraine satisfies. Are you under the impression that an undemocratic corrupt hack was voted in?

DUH.

	01-03-2005 01:43									#45
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Well, what's your bill of particulars for Yushenko?

	01-03-2005 01:46									#46
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These don't appear to be long-term changes so much as backing down for a moment because another country is spoiling for a fight. They work in the same way Vietnam "worked" to contain communism, by making the prospect of displeasing America unpalatable, not by discouraging the unpleasant behavior directly. Uh-oh, the Americans want to start a peeing contest, better lay low for a while.

The underlying cultures and attitudes that are the real problem don't change a bit. Note that Afghanistan has just "elected" its dominant warlord into its presidency...

	01-03-2005 01:47									#47
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO Not as much as all the lives saved and all the free people. You know, some people believe that freeedom is worth dying for...I know our forefathers did.

as long as it's voluntary as I said in my first post.

Iraq did not volunteer to be a democracy.

	01-03-2005 01:47									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor And that's actually the right way to do things. I continue not to believe the whole "democracy at gunpoint" meme, and I expect Iraq to need continuous pressure and support so that its democracy becomes sustainable, just like the undemocratic institutions of the other ME countries will require pressure, while their democratic opposition will require support.

"Democracy at gunpoint"? Really now. So, are you implying that democracy would not be the choice of the Iraqi people? Perhaps you meant "Deposing tyrants at gunpoint"? That is, in fact, what happened. I can imagine what the vote would be if given a choice between their present government and having Sadaam back.

	01-03-2005 01:49									#49
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I still think the eivdence is far stronger for a Syria-Iran connection to Lockerbie than an Lybian one (course that puts part of the blame on the U.S.). Lybia just got tired of sanctions and decided it cost less to cry "Uncle Sam!"

	01-03-2005 01:51									#50
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quote: The underlying cultures and attitudes that are the real problem don't change a bit. Note that Afghanistan has just "elected" its dominant warlord into its presidency...

Karzai wasn't a warlord. The problem with Afghanistan, as I said in the other thread, is that parliamentary/local elections keep getting pushed back. In fact, parliamentary elections were just delayed again. So it's basically a Presidential dictatorship.

	01-03-2005 01:52									#51
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon It has nothing to do with the US. More to do with access to mass media. Besides, the western "democracies" aren't really, anymore.

	01-03-2005 01:54									#52
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO "Democracy at gunpoint"? Really now. So, are you implying that democracy would not be the choice of the Iraqi people? Perhaps you meant "Deposing tyrants at gunpoint"? That is, in fact, what happened. I can imagine what the vote would be if given a choice between their present government and having Sadaam back.

Can anyone say, "either-or fallacy?" The French didn't vote to put the King back on the throne after their Revolution; they just let a different tyrant named Bonaparte take over. And it's been a little over a decade since the Cold War "deposed" the USSR. Putin's a lot better than the commies, right?

	01-03-2005 01:54									#53
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Well, what's your bill of particulars for Yushenko?

1. Scandals during the inter-election. For example, plenty of cripples were disenfranchised (most of them coming from the mining regions of the East)

2. Used the mob in order to have his will imposed.

3. Corrupt hack. Has been in power before as prime minister, and made a bunch of money

4. Divider. He nominated Yulia Timochenko as interim prime minister. She is famous for having been the ring-leader of the Orange revolution, that deeply divided the country (it's not like all democratically-minded Ukraininas were orange: it was one half of Ukraine against another).

Both candidates in the elections were corrupt clowns. One was more symapthetic to Russia, the other was more sympathetic to the west. But being our ***** does not a democrat make.

	01-03-2005 02:01									#54
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO "Democracy at gunpoint"? Really now. So, are you implying that democracy would not be the choice of the Iraqi people? Perhaps you meant "Deposing tyrants at gunpoint"? That is, in fact, what happened. I can imagine what the vote would be if given a choice between their present government and having Sadaam back.

I am implying that the Iraqis will probably be very comfortable with a system of the tyranny of the majority, as long as they're in the majority. I'm also implying that the Iraqi institutions are very weak so far, and should there not be US pressure, it's very likely that some guy in power decides to keep it to himself.

Democracy requires a political culture where the power lies in institutions rather than individuals. This culture doesn't come in one day. It will require continuous pressure for some time (and continuous support of the democratic opposition -whatever it is) to have this idea being passed on.

If anything, the fate of most African "democracies" show that a young democracy requires constant attention to become sustainable.

	01-03-2005 02:01									#55
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If the Reagan presidency taught us only one thing, it's that subverting a foreign country's politics to make it more "America-friendly" by military force is just not as easy as it sounds. Bush's freedom just got "marching," it's too soon to tell how long all this is going to last (my bet's around five years, tops, before these countries revert to autocracy with a deeper grudge against the US), and the historical score is heavily weighted against it.

	01-03-2005 02:07									#56
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor 1. Scandals during the inter-election. For example, plenty of cripples were disenfranchised (most of them coming from the mining regions of the East) 2. Used the mob in order to have his will imposed. 3. Corrupt hack. Has been in power before as prime minister, and made a bunch of money 4. Divider. He nominated Yulia Timochenko as interim prime minister. She is famous for having been the ring-leader of the Orange revolution, that deeply divided the country (it's not like all democratically-minded Ukraininas were orange: it was one half of Ukraine against another). Both candidates in the elections were corrupt clowns. One was more symapthetic to Russia, the other was more sympathetic to the west. But being our ***** does not a democrat make.

That's a whole lot of circular argumentation, Spiffor. He used the mob to force new, reasonably fair elections, and to replace fixed elections. The only thing you got on him is #3, about which I would need more info.

	01-03-2005 02:09									#57
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Iraq costs $150 billion per annum? That seems rather high. At a minimum, I ask you to show your figures.

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0125-08.htm

We've been there two years with a cost of right around $300 billion not counting development aid or funds to pay for their recent elections since those aren't directly military projects. That figures out to be $150 billion per year that we have spent.

quote: That means funding for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan will total nearly $105 billion in fiscal 2005 alone - a record amount that shatters initial estimates of the cost.

That figure doesn't include Bush's "emergency spending" requests which is one of his favorite ways to disguise the true costs of his programs. He announces one price tag then waits a few months and asks for substantional extra money. He did this to the tune of $80 billion last year for Iraq and Afghanistan.

	01-03-2005 02:14									#58
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quote: Yep...Bush and his policies are idiotic.

Even if we grant that these foreign policy victories might be his, how does it wash away such travesties as Claria (Gator) employees becoming part of the Department of Homeland Security?

Yep, Bush and his policies are idiotic.

	01-03-2005 02:18									#59
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Subtract the money for Afghanistan and other items. Recalculate for 3 years, as these are appropriations and not actual spending yet.

I am somewhat surprised to see you cite Common Dreams.

	01-03-2005 02:18									#60
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I am implying that the Iraqis will probably be very comfortable with a system of the tyranny of the majority, as long as they're in the majority. I'm also implying that the Iraqi institutions are very weak so far, and should there not be US pressure, it's very likely that some guy in power decides to keep it to himself. Democracy requires a political culture where the power lies in institutions rather than individuals. This culture doesn't come in one day. It will require continuous pressure for some time (and continuous support of the democratic opposition -whatever it is) to have this idea being passed on. If anything, the fate of most African "democracies" show that a young democracy requires constant attention to become sustainable.

I agree with all that, but how is that "Democracy at gunpoint"? Are you saying that other kinds of pressure don't work? Perhaps that may be correct in the beginning...I just don't know. What I do know is that a chance for democracy is better than Sadaam for the vast majority of Iraqis. I would venture to guess that it is probably going to be better for a large number of the Sunnis.