01-03-2005 03:45									#91
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: come on Ramo do you really think earlier elections would have been better - a year earlier there was far less developed press in Iraq, there was less political organization, less experience of local parties, etc. We could well have had a much less democratic election - I dont know that it makes sense to play that particular what if game. Maybe not a year, but several months earlier, absolutely. As for political experience, the run-up to the election had no practical campaigning in large parts of the country. It was electioneering by posters. The results of which was a sectarian election pure and simple. People voted their ethno-religious group. I'm not sure how you can get much less democratic. I don't see how those extra months of possible campaigning is worth the extremizing of the population.

I wasnt thinking of the electorate so much as the politicos. Would Dawa, SCIRI etc have been the same months earlier - or the independents on the UIA slate? Heck, would the election have been the same before Sadr was neutered in Najaf in August? And once youre that far along, your well into the period when the insurgency is at its height.

You also certainly wouldnt have had as strong Iraqi security forces available on election day as happened - it would have had a much more American face.

	01-03-2005 04:19									#92
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quote: Originally posted by DanS How do you know this? I challenge you to produce the evidence.

I don't know what you would call "evidence" that I could realistically gather, but things like that (I would have directly linked to the article, but being a Q&A, it got updated ) struck me as showing that the orange revolution was a movement behind one man, rather than behind the abstract commitment to free elections.

True, a few people in the Orange Revolution were indeed democracy-concerned people. But the driving force behind it was the candidacy of Yushchenko, and the mass of people taking part in it aimed at Yushchenko's victory.

If you want more about it, go read all articles about the Orangeists at the BBC. At the exception of one article, the BBC constantly depicts the Orangeists as the pro-Yushchenko guys. Yet the BBC is not a servant of Yanukovych

quote: That's not a good comparison. We all would have voted again and the results would have been similar. In the case of Ukraine, the swing was sufficiently large between elections that the question is begged of whether funny business was going on in the first elections.

Except that the major political crisis, if it had lasted one month, might have significantly changed the results. Edit: yes the question is begged. I don't remember having ever thought that the elction was fair. However, I have found nothing to convince me that the second elections were any fairer.
Considering the stake of the whole thing for Russia, the EU and the US, it sure restricts the amount of institutional sources I would be willing to trust.

	01-03-2005 04:23									#93
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel Spiffor is, as he almost always is, completely right: in his analysis, and in his insights into some of the inner workings, all of those check in with my data, and personal knowledge as well.

Well, thanks But don't get your expectations about me too high either. I say so many things that I sometimes make completely dweebish comments that are unconnected to reality. I wouldn't want your positive opinion on me to shatter when it happens

	01-03-2005 04:31									#94
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http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0...1502214,00.html

of course theyre planning to redo the sales through fair auctions, not return the companies to the state through unfair means, so I guess this wont satisfy SOME people.

	01-03-2005 04:32									#95
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DanS by 34 minutes

	01-03-2005 04:34									#96
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BTW DanS. HERE is a recentish article from the Washington Post which projects a record budget deficit of $427 billion for fiscal year 2005 after Bush's extra spending bills get passed. Soon your avatar will be mine. BUWHAHAHAHAHA!

	01-03-2005 04:37									#97
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LOTM

Well, that's better already.

Curiously enough, it ends up being very selective, compared to the "3,000" figure that Timochenko said. But I'm the kind of guy who prefers selective enforcement of the law than no enforcement at all so I won't whine.

	01-03-2005 04:38									#98
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Soon your avatar will be mine. BUWHAHAHAHAHA!

Teh Lenin!

	01-03-2005 04:46									#99
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Back on the war cost: The invasion was launched in March of 2003 so it has been less then two years since the war started (23 months). Since you didn't like the privious link I provided here is a different estimate.

http://costofwar.com/numbers.html

The summary is ust for Iraq the total war associated costs as of January 2005 was $152 billion. Last January Bush officially asked Congress for a supplimental bill of $80 billion and this bill will be voted on next month.

quote: Spending only includes "incremental" costs, additional funds that are expended due to the war. For example, soldiers' regular pay is not included, but combat pay is included. However, wear and tear on vehicles and other military equipment is not necessarily included. The military does not appear to be using its funding for replacement costs at the moment and there may be additional costs that are unknown at this point. (Future costs of veterans' care and other hidden costs are also not included.)

Since things like basic pay and equipment costs are not included in this estimate it is easy to see why the true figure should be in the $300 billion range. Even if we use this far more conservative number the cost comes to be about $100 billion per year or more then the annual budget of the state of California.

	01-03-2005 04:48									#100
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I join Azazel in saying to Spiff.

	01-03-2005 04:50									#101
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor LOTM Well, that's better already. Curiously enough, it ends up being very selective, compared to the "3,000" figure that Timochenko said. But I'm the kind of guy who prefers selective enforcement of the law than no enforcement at all so I won't whine.

Timoshenko IS COMPROMISING, not being the extremist you SAID you feared.

	01-03-2005 04:51									#102
	Re: The democratic revolution marches on... Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by DanS Lebanon Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan? Moldova? Kazakhstan?

Thanks for your optimistic view. I mean your not including Russia into that list. We'll get along well without your damn democratic revolution.

	01-03-2005 04:58									#103
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http://database.nationalpriorities....q0/4.0.1.3.12.1

Same web site as above but they put the total cost of the war in Iraq (counting next weeks supplimental bill) at $207.5 billion. They also show some interesting facts of what we could have done with the Iraq war money instead.

Like:

47,133,456 People Receiving Health Care, or

3,250,796 Port Container Inspectors, or

27,486,910 Head Start Places for Children, or

122,099,681 Children Receiving Health Care, or

24,422 New Elementary Schools, or

1,868,579 Affordable Housing Units, or

40,241,753 Scholarships for University Students, or

4,676,000 Public Safety Officers.

We make bad choices.

	01-03-2005 04:59									#104
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Hey Vagabond. Is Putin going to run for President again, as the constitution forbade?

	01-03-2005 05:01									#105
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It depends... I can only hope that the administration has the political will to keep American troops in Iraq for the long haul and not just cut and run when we think they can't handle it (unless they tell us to leave, of course). The administration was wrong on what it would take to secure the country, but hopefully we can make something out of the mess.

The BIG problem I see is that we've basically just abandoned Afghanistan and said, oh they can handle it! The warlord have taken over vast areas and the Taliban are making a come back! We needed to keep some troops there a bit longer. Maybe help train Afghans and knock off warlord taking back tracts of land. Stuff like that.

	01-03-2005 05:10									#106
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Uh, yes he is. If we had gone straight from Andropov to Putin, no messsianic hopes around Gorbie and Yeltsin, we'd see him as an important reformer.

Undoubtedly. But give him a few years, and he'll turn nastier, or his successor will. My point is that tyranny-replaced-by-democracy is more than capable of sliding right back into plain ordinary tyranny at a moment's notice. And the USSR, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, had a relatively orderly transition.

	01-03-2005 05:22									#107
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark too soon to say.

	01-03-2005 05:26									#108
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Hey Vagabond. Is Putin going to run for President again, as the constitution forbade?

No, he is not going.

On the other hand, your persistent export of "democratic revolutions" puts the real democracy in danger. Ironically, the very existence of democratic norms in a (vulnerable) country gives you a window of opportunity for stirring up a "democratic revolution". For instance, Putin's abiding by democratic principles in 2008 (by not running again) greatly facilitates your dirty endeavor. Open your eyes, Dan, and put the Washington Post aside.

	01-03-2005 05:38									#109
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Timoshenko IS COMPROMISING, not being the extremist you SAID you feared.

Actually, it's not what I meant.

I expect Timoshenko to be an orangeist extremist, i.e. a woman who cares overwhelmingly for the interests of the west. Though the experience of power will likely mellow her down, it is very probable that her unpopularity in the East remains, thus making one half of the country feeling alienated from their PM. Considering how deep is the rift between the two Ukraines, I continue to think that propping up such a controversial figure was a terrible idea.

I don't expect Timoshenko to be an economic extremist, simply because I don't know her economic platform. I expect her to defend the fortune she and her teammates acquired in the past. But I am surprised by that measure. Actually, the one who compromised was not Timoshenko but Yushchenko (It's Timo who spoke about "3,000" companies).

Maybe the professed aim of joining the EU will mean that the governing team is serious about tackling corrution, and will avoid making any significant dirty money duting this term. One could say that they're already rich enough to keep clean from now on, which is probably true. However, politics in a corrupt country involve rewarding loyal servants with corrupt money. If they are serious about tackling that, it's great. I'd love to be proven wrong about Yushchenko.

	01-03-2005 06:06									#110
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Ironically, Timoshenko is from the East (Dnepropetrovsk, which is the home town of Kuchma too) and her mother's tongue is Russian. After her break with the Kuchma clan (she was even put to jail at one point on economic charges), she had no choice but to actively join the "orange" clan and become an "orange extremist". Interestingly enough, she is known as a "gas princess", as she made her fortune on stealing Russian gas transported from Russia to Europe through Ukraine.

	01-03-2005 06:09									#111
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I knew a gas princess in grammar school but we called her that for an entirely different reason. (insert gas mask smilie here)

	01-03-2005 06:14									#112
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Russia

Hey, we'll just nuke you if you try to fiddle with our sovereignty.

	01-03-2005 06:16									#113
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin I knew a gas princess in grammar school but we called her that for an entirely different reason. (insert gas mask smilie here)

Timoshenko is much prettier than that though.

	01-03-2005 06:20									#114
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Well, I wouldn't describe it quite as "pure business", in that you can't really "buy" these revolutions. Soros spent a fortune trying to bring down Bush and it had little to no impact, for instance. However, as stated, a modest sum of money is helping to even the playing field with undemocratic governments.

I wouldn't accentuate the word 'undemocratic' here, but rather mention that a modest sum of money (by your standards!) is sufficient to manipulate vulnerable and troubled countries.

	01-03-2005 06:32									#115
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO Let's see... Elections in Afghanistan Elections in Iraq Libya gives up WMD's Lebanon demonstrating in the street for democracy Egypt Changing its constitution to be more democratic Elections in Palestine. Yep...Bush and his policies are idiotic.

The Bush policies are not idiotic from the viewpoint of realpolitik. But from the viewpoint of democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan... just give me a break!

	01-03-2005 06:48									#116
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quote: Originally posted by The Vagabond No, he is not going. On the other hand, your persistent export of "democratic revolutions" puts the real democracy in danger. Ironically, the very existence of democratic norms in a (vulnerable) country gives you a window of opportunity for stirring up a "democratic revolution". For instance, Putin's abiding by democratic principles in 2008 (by not running again) greatly facilitates your dirty endeavor. Open your eyes, Dan, and put the Washington Post aside.

I guess that when you write vulnerable, then you mean that other than the selected person has a chance to get elected ? I guess that noone think there are any military threats against Russia which they cannot handle.

	01-03-2005 07:04									#117
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Actually, it's not what I meant. I expect Timoshenko to be an orangeist extremist, i.e. a woman who cares overwhelmingly for the interests of the west. Though the experience of power will likely mellow her down, it is very probable that her unpopularity in the East remains, thus making one half of the country feeling alienated from their PM. Considering how deep is the rift between the two Ukraines, I continue to think that propping up such a controversial figure was a terrible idea. I don't expect Timoshenko to be an economic extremist, simply because I don't know her economic platform. I expect her to defend the fortune she and her teammates acquired in the past. But I am surprised by that measure. Actually, the one who compromised was not Timoshenko but Yushchenko (It's Timo who spoke about "3,000" companies). Maybe the professed aim of joining the EU will mean that the governing team is serious about tackling corrution, and will avoid making any significant dirty money duting this term. One could say that they're already rich enough to keep clean from now on, which is probably true. However, politics in a corrupt country involve rewarding loyal servants with corrupt money. If they are serious about tackling that, it's great. I'd love to be proven wrong about Yushchenko.

In the first election they may have those bad thoughts, but I think that the "Orange revolution" have scared them because I don't think they had any control over it.

If they have any real interest in joining the EU, then the are also aware of the fact that the usual business in old soviet states won't work. Therefore I think that they are sincere in getting a unificaition of those things that divide Ukraine and get the economy under strict legal control.

I don't expect this process to be finished in short terms - lets see what has happened five years in the future.

At least with the current government, they have a very serious chance to join the EU wich they wouldn't have had if the first election had been accepted.

	01-03-2005 07:45									#118
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quote: Originally posted by Dr Strangelove Errrrrr.........That was Carter's policy as well, and the results were... Neither Palestine, Saudi Arabia, or Lebanon are out of the woods yet. If "democrtatic" changes have an undesired effect we may yet see a change in policy.

Yeah, but Carter was unwilling to do anything serious about undemocratic enemies, even when they took our diplomats hostage and made the US the laughingstock of the world. Perhaps Bush is more effective than Carter for a reason?

	01-03-2005 07:55									#119
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Carter told the Iranians that he wanted a peaceful solution but if the hostages were harmed then he'd go to war. The mullahs have since said the one reason the hostages weren't killed was because they feared Carter would make good on his threat. Besides what to Reagan do to the Iranians that Carter didn't? He negotiated just like Carter and even promised to keep selling them weapons.

	01-03-2005 08:08									#120
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I merged the two threads, so the flow would be a bit odd.