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notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 16-04-2005 10:17
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http://www.canada.com/national/stor...94-050899c0ffa7

quote:
Layton: polls show frustration with Liberals

Canadian Press

April 15, 2005

OTTAWA -- The leader of the federal NDP says his party's best poll results in 15 years reflect voter frustration with broken Liberal promises.

Jack Layton says the sponsorship scandal has focused people on frustrations over the environment, day care, health care and other issues.

"People are looking at 12 years of broken promises. They've been waiting for action, they don't see it,'' Layton said.

"Their air is dirty. Their education is too expensive. They've got waiting lists for health. The Liberals are stealing their money and they're looking for alternatives.''

The sponsorship scandal has breathed new life into the NDP, with a new poll showing the party nipping on the heels of the ruling Liberals.

A new CBC poll placed the NDP at 24 per cent, compared with 27 per cent for the Liberals. Both were far behind the Conservatives, who led with 33 per cent.

But don't expect the NDP to help topple the Liberals in the coming days. Layton suggested he won't support the Conservatives if they table a non-confidence motion next week.

"I would say it's rather unlikely that we would be supporting a Conservative motion,'' he said. "We haven't made our final decision but I think it's rather unlikely.''

The Tories and Bloc Quebecois could possibly topple the government and cause an election without help from the NDP.

But the Tories ardently hope to get all opposition parties' support. They fear that without it the Liberals would cast them as accomplices of the separatist Bloc.

All three opposition parties have said they will take the pulse of their constituents during the spring parliamentary break before deciding on an election.

Some Tories are clearly clamouring to take down the Liberals.

"Well, I can hardly wait,'' said Alberta MP Myron Thompson.

"Somebody's got to clean this mob out and the system needs really repairing.''

This week's poll of 1,200 people is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


Sit down and shut up, Myron. Alberta isn't where the Liberals are going to be toppled.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 16-04-2005 10:22
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Who can believe polls? This one has the NDP declining while the Liberals hold firm. Hmmmm...

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...?hub=TopStories
quote:
Poll shows Conservative support still on rise
CTV.ca News Staff

With political polls showing Liberal support dropping over the sponsorship scandal and Conservative numbers on the rise, party leaders have already shifted into campaign mode in anticipation of a spring election.

Prime Minister Paul Martin's minority government appears to be heading for a defeat over news from the inquiry into the sponsorship scandal.

The latest poll by Ipsos-Reid, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows dramatically different numbers from a similar poll released Monday. This indicates Canadian public opinion on federal politics is highly volatile and could change again in the coming days. But one trend continues – the Liberal numbers are dropping.

Highlights of the poll:

Nationally: 36 per cent of decided voters would vote Conservative, up six points since the previous poll. Liberal support remains unchanged at 27 per cent. And 15 per cent would vote NDP, a four-point drop.
In Ontario: Conservative Party support reached 39 per cent, a seven-point rise. Liberals have 33 per cent, a one-point drop.
Trust: As for which party leader is more trusted, Opposition Leader Stephen Harper beat out Martin, but on who would make the better prime minister, the positions were reversed.

Harper was trying to make the best of the week's polling, test-driving his party's message and winning converts in seat-rich southern Ontario Friday.

Harper toured a shirt factory in Cambridge, spoke at the Chamber of Commerce lunch, and then moved on to a high-tech firm in nearby Waterloo in the afternoon.

"This is a campaign stop," he admitted, "and I don't think we'll have to wait too long for an election."

Most polls this week are suggesting Harper could not now win decisively enough to form a majority government. While he is gaining ground in Ontario, the Bloc Quebecois is the main beneficiary in that province, where public anger over the sponsorship scandal is at a peak.

"At a minimum these numbers mean if an election were held tomorrow we could quite clearly have a Tory minority government," says Ipsos-Reid President Darrell Bricker. "If the Liberals fall further then I think we are talking about a Tory majority."

The polls also show that, overwhelmingly, Canadians do not want an election now. But Harper appears ready to gamble that voters will take out their anger out on Martin and not him.

"The real issue is, I have to prop up on this government on a day to day basis," Harper said. "At what point, simply on a moral and political basis, can I no longer justify doing that?"

Harper's first opportunity to bring down the government is April 20, but senior Tories say he's not likely to act until May for an election in late June, just before Canadians start their summer holidays.

On the west coast, Martin made his own campaign-like stop, touring Vancouver's waterfront with the mayor, then making the first in a series of announcements regarding the sharing of gas taxes with the provinces.

Martin was making his second visit to the province in the last few weeks.

Meanwhile, CTV Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife says that senior Liberals are considering a pre-emptive move against vote of non-confidence. They are tossing around the idea that Martin might go to Governor General Adrienne Clarkson, requesting that she ask the Conservatives to form the government, without an election. The Liberals, then, would back a Harper minority government.

Asked about this prospect Friday, Harper sounded dubious. "That would be feasible only under extraordinary circumstances," he told reporters.

That scenario, says Fife, is "not very likely given the poll numbers -- I think the answer would be a resounding no."


And that trust bit in bold is rather baffling. Clearly, Canadians do not place trustworthiness very high up the list. Oh well, we get what we vote for...

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
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Oct 2001
time: 14:33
  Old Post 16-04-2005 12:28
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Bloc is gaining support in Ontario? WTF?

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
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Oct 2002
time: 21:33
  Old Post 16-04-2005 12:45
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I assume they meant Quebec.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
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Oct 2001
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  Old Post 16-04-2005 12:48
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That's what I thought at first, as well. Then again, who knows with you guys?

Richelieu is offline Richelieu
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Dec 2001
time: 00:33
  Old Post 16-04-2005 21:21
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I never thought i'd say this, but right now a Conservative government almost sounds like a good thing.

Promise a national referendum on same sex marriage and i'm in.

St Leo is offline St Leo
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Jul 2005
time: 00:33
  Old Post 16-04-2005 22:08 Visit St Leo<br><img src=/forums/images/staff-icon.gif>'s homepage!
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Unfortunately, the Bloc does not run candidates in Ontario.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
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  Old Post 17-04-2005 13:07
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quote:
Originally posted by Richelieu
I never thought i'd say this, but right now a Conservative government almost sounds like a good thing.

Promise a national referendum on same sex marriage and i'm in.


But could they do that without ripping up wounds among the electorate?

I'd much prefer they listen to the judges in seven of ten provinces and let the issue die. No matter if it is Parliament or a referendum, the courts are telling us the status quo is unconstitutional.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
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  Old Post 17-04-2005 13:15
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Actually, I think Harper is being somewhat cynical on the issue.

He is using it to shore up support among some of the base and, more importantly, to drive a wedge between the Liberals and some of their support in immigrant communities.

When it comes down to cases, all he'll do is pass a bill and punt it over to the SCoC to rule as unconstitutional. At which point he will say he tried.

He knows how this will play out down to the last vote on the SCoC, so all he is doing is trying to win votes by manipulating voter emotions.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 17-04-2005 13:22
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For myself, I'd rather see Layton as PM than see the Liberals rewarded with another mandate. Even though it may be unfair to Martin who may not have had anything personally to do with the scandal, the party has to be given a major misconduct by the voters.

I am heartened that Layton said he could work with the Tories. Maybe people can get over trying to vote the other guys out of power by keeping the Liberals in.

Who could be better as parole officers for the Tories other than the NDP? There would definitely be some compromises there.

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
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Oct 2002
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  Old Post 17-04-2005 13:28
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quote:

Promise a national referendum on same sex marriage and i'm in.


* Ben Kenobi takes a quick look at his evil Canadian Conservative dossier with poll data on this topic.

You got it!

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 17-04-2005 13:31
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It doesn't matter, Ben. The result you desire will get tossed by the courts. 52% of Canadian voters (which are only 63% of the adult population) would be no better a mob than 65% or more of Parliament.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
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  Old Post 17-04-2005 13:35
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The only democratic result that would be helpful for your cause would be a constitutional amendment. Good luck with that.

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
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Oct 2002
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  Old Post 19-04-2005 07:13
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Why?

Where does the constitution say that to defend marriage requires an amendment?

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
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May 2001
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  Old Post 19-04-2005 09:28 Visit KrazyHorse's homepage!
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Because lower courts in 7 provinces have already made the determination that it is unconstitutional to restrict marriage to heterosexual couples. The SCoC declined to rule on the issue, but it is extremely likely that if forced to rule by the federal government appealing the lower court decisions that they would not reverse the lower courts. Thus, any act restricting marriage to heterosexual couples passed at the federal level would be deemed unconstitutional, and there would be precisely two options: invoking the notwithstanding clause and a constitutional amendment.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 19-04-2005 09:36
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The Constitution says that the SCoC is the highest court of the land.

The SCoC, along with courts in seven of ten provinces, say that prohibiting gay marriage is unconstitutional.

You could have 205 MPs say gay marriage is against the New Law, or you could have 205 million Canadians say the same thing (if you waited a while for there to be that many Canadians) but the Court backed by the Constitution still says otherwise, and it is trump. Call it the ace of spades and spades are bid, if you will.

The only thing you could do, democratically, legally, and with any hope of surviving a single government, is pass an amendment where seven of ten provinces representing 50%+ of the population agree that marriage is restricted to man and woman. Good luck with that.

Or, you could hold your breath for a very long time and hope that social reactionaries will hold majority power for long enough to replace most of the court. I bet you go beyond turning blue waiting for that to happen. I doubt Harper could live long enough to appoint a majority of jurists who would reverse course, even if he lived to 110 as sitting PM. Remember, people who think as I do would be among the candidates the Tories would choose from.

Or, you could hope that Harper would be stupid enough to use the notwithstanding clause. That would last for a few years until it needed to be renewed or it lapses. In the meantime the Conservatives would be wiped out in most every major urban centre in the country and their replacements would most likely repeal any bill that is so offensive rather than let it run its course to lapsing.

Realism is a good thing, Ben. One should realise when they are licked. Move on to other issues that actually matter.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 19-04-2005 09:45
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quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Because lower courts in 7 provinces have already made the determination that it is unconstitutional to restrict marriage to heterosexual couples. The SCoC declined to rule on the issue, but it is extremely likely that if forced to rule by the federal government appealing the lower court decisions that they would not reverse the lower courts. Thus, any act restricting marriage to heterosexual couples passed at the federal level would be deemed unconstitutional, and there would be precisely two options: invoking the notwithstanding clause and a constitutional amendment.


They did indicate thet the fed was indicating acceptance by not appealing.

They also rejected tradition as an argument.

They said everything but 'if you want a bloody nose, put the question before us in a case.'

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 19-04-2005 09:59
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The SCoC already said all that should need being said on the issue, in 1995 when they ruled that 'sexual orientation' was essentially part of Section 15 of the Charter or Rights and Freedoms.

That opened the door to the rulings in the seven of ten provinces.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
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Oct 2001
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  Old Post 19-04-2005 09:59
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quote:
The only democratic result that would be helpful for your cause would be a constitutional amendment.


Very true and very disheartening...

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
Deity
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 19-04-2005 10:03
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You find it disheartening that we are ruled by law and not mobs?

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
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Oct 2001
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  Old Post 19-04-2005 10:06
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No, I find it disheartening that democracy has been so reduced that the people of a free country have no real say as regards the fate of one of society's most important institutions.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 19-04-2005 10:14
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Oh right. People of the South most likely said the same thing, and it wasn't even a courts doing in the undoing. Slavery was a pretty important institution for their society.

Guess what? It was wrong to set society up so that certain people benefitted and certain people suffered based on a fundamental nature of being.

That's one of the reasons why we have courts. To protect minorities from majorities who feel tyrannical with no good reason other than it's tradition to treat certain people worse than others.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
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Oct 2001
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  Old Post 19-04-2005 10:22
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quote:
Oh right. People of the South most likely said the same thing, and it wasn't even a courts doing in the undoing.


If you apply this to the civil rights movement, it brings up a valuable point. The civil rights movement didn't rely solely on judicial intervention. It was a democratic process, which is probably why it was so successful.

Look at it another way. Civil rights. Roe v. Wade. Which one was a democratic decision? Which one wasn't? Which decision is accepted by nearly all the people in America today? And which one is still one of the major sources of bile and division in America?

I really don't know why seemingly reasonable people lost their faith in democracy, but I sure don't like it...

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 19-04-2005 10:27
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I don't mind some limits on mob rule in turbulent times on emotional issues. I would not favour requiring Socrates to drink the hemlock in this day and age, either.

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
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May 2001
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quote:
Originally posted by notyoueither


They did indicate thet the fed was indicating acceptance by not appealing.

They also rejected tradition as an argument.

They said everything but 'if you want a bloody nose, put the question before us in a case.'


I know. Just keeping the facts straight.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
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  Old Post 19-04-2005 10:28
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Incidently, your civil rights movement got kicked off in the courts. It was the only place the wronged could get a hearing.

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
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  Old Post 19-04-2005 10:29
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quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse


I know. Just keeping the facts straight.


And the important fact is the 1995 ruling.

Drake Tungsten is offline Drake Tungsten
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Oct 2001
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  Old Post 19-04-2005 10:31
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quote:
Incidently, your civil rights movement got kicked off in the courts. It was the only place the wronged could get a hearing.


It didn't end there, though, which is precisely my point. People accept decisions that are ultimately decided in a democratic fashion. They aren't so willing to accept the dictates of judicial fiat.

KrazyHorse is offline KrazyHorse
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May 2001
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You can make an argument that protection against discrimination is not quite on point. Not a good argument, but...

notyoueither is offline notyoueither
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Aug 2001
time: 22:33
  Old Post 19-04-2005 10:40
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quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse
You can make an argument that protection against discrimination is not quite on point. Not a good argument, but...


70 year old people are getting married for tax and estate benefit.

How is that not discriminatory if discrimination based on sexual orientation is prohibited under Section 15, which the SCoC says it is?

/edited for clarity

Last edited by notyoueither on 19-04-2005 at 10:46

 
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