05-05-2005 14:20									#1
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It seems as there's no thread anywhere near the top few pages for this yet.

Today are the national (and a fair few local) elections in the UK. I guess the big questions are:

- How many seats will Labour lose? If they go below 90 or so seats majority, will it cost Tony's job?

- Will the Tories get 209 (the amount of seats Foot had in 1983, worst Labour performance during the Thatcher years), or keep hanging lower than that? Will they ever come back as a party that can challenge for the leadership?

- Will the improved exposure and increases in the polls for Lib Dems translate in a lot more seats? Or will the votes come in seats where they have impossible margins to overcome.

- Will the national parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru) do well?

	05-05-2005 14:43									#2
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It's not very easy to come up with answers to that, check back tomorrow.

And British party politics has never been the same for me anyway since the merry old days when Margaret Thatcher was at the wheel.

So I'll just limit myself to wishing the Brits a Happy Election day.

	05-05-2005 14:46									#3
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What's Plaid Cymru?

	05-05-2005 14:46									#4
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Yeah, I bet you just adored Maggie didn't you Evil b*tch...is she dead yet?

	05-05-2005 14:51									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Provost Harrison Yeah, I bet you just adored Maggie didn't you

Absolutely.

	05-05-2005 15:08									#6
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I voted this morning - Lib

Not really keen on all this tactical voting stuff - i prefer to vote for whom i believe is the best candidate.

Democracy is a very excellent thing, even if its not often perfect in its implimentation, its still seems 'right' to me when ever i cast my vote.

Democracy

Tony 'False smiles' Blair and his 'Neo(con)- labour'

Mike 'Poll Tax Dracula' Howard and the rascists

Last edited by child of Thor on 05-05-2005 at 15:36

	05-05-2005 15:20									#7
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And facism

	05-05-2005 15:25									#8
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Voted at half eight this morning for Labour. However, I live in the safest Conservative seat in the whole country (William Hague, Richmond) and so it's doubtful that my vote is going to swing the election

As for the other questions:

quote: - How many seats will Labour lose? If they go below 90 or so seats majority, will it cost Tony's job?

Not sure how many Labour will lose but I'm predicting a majority in the mid-to-high 90s. Blair will stay for 2-3 years as long as the majority doesn't fall much below 50.

quote: - Will the Tories get 209 (the amount of seats Foot had in 1983, worst Labour performance during the Thatcher years), or keep hanging lower than that? Will they ever come back as a party that can challenge for the leadership?

If the tories do get back over 200 (and this is by no means certain), won't be much over 209. Im predicting that they won't reach that figure. Looking further into the future - the current tory top brass wont ever be in power again. Look out for David Cameron & George Osbourne on election night - they're the future for the tories.

quote: - Will the improved exposure and increases in the polls for Lib Dems translate in a lot more seats? Or will the votes come in seats where they have impossible margins to overcome.

Liberals will increase their seats by around 15. However this may drop if the tories advance in liberal safe-seats which is a possibility. The Lib Dems may also take out some Conservative shadow cabinet ministers - David Davis, Theresa May and Oliver Letwin are all in reasonably close races with Lib Dems.

quote: - Will the national parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru) do well?

No. The SNP might even lose a seat to the tories.

	05-05-2005 15:29									#9
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Lightblue - you might even see a seat change hands where you are. Aren't the Lib Dems looking good in Cambridge?

	05-05-2005 15:30									#10
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro What's Plaid Cymru?

Its the party for those who can't spell/

	05-05-2005 15:34									#11
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quote: Originally posted by BeBro What's Plaid Cymru?

They're the Welsh National Party

	05-05-2005 15:45									#12
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Hmm, maybe. Campbell had a 20% majority last time around, but she's pissed off a fair few of constituents (by promising to vote agaisnt tuition fees and the iraq war, and then proceeding to do so anyway), so it'll be fairly close. Lib Dems took the council last year, I reckon they'll be pushing her close, but probably not quite close enough.

	05-05-2005 15:46									#13
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I'd like to see a fist fight between all three candidates, to decide who will rule

Tony could be quite handy, he seems well co-ordinated and fast moving, but maybe a little light on hit points.

Mike would be mostly useless, but he has that hypnotic evil power thing that would allow him to stay in the fight a little longer.

Charles would suffer if the fight went on for a longtime, but would be able to absorb lots of damage.

I can't call it but i feel the winner would be either Tony or Charles.

	05-05-2005 15:53									#14
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quote: Originally posted by lightblue Hmm, maybe. Campbell had a 20% majority last time around, but she's pissed off a fair few of constituents (by promising to vote agaisnt tuition fees and the iraq war, and then proceeding to do so anyway), so it'll be fairly close. Lib Dems took the council last year, I reckon they'll be pushing her close, but probably not quite close enough.

Yeah, I heard the candidate was pretty unpopular. I assume a lot of the backlash will come from the fact that there are so many students in Cambridge and that they are much more politically motivated/active than many other students.

quote: Mike would be mostly useless, but he has that hypnotic evil power thing that would allow him to stay in the fight a little longer.

Howard could just turn into a bat and suck their blood.

	05-05-2005 15:57									#15
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Problem with a lot of students is that they're registered in their home seats, not Cambridge Central. Even then, the vote would probably be split Tory/Lib Dem anyway, it's not like say Manchester Univ where you could guarantee a 90% Labour vote.

In a fistfight I'd have to give the edge to Tony as well.. unless Charles lands a knock out punch early by throwing his weight behind his fist. Think Tony would break Michael Howard and he's probably fit enough to outlast Charles. Though maybe the stress would play on his heart. He could always send his champion, John "Two Jabs" Prescott, Charles Clarke could be a bruiser too.

	05-05-2005 16:04									#16
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quote: Problem with a lot of students is that they're registered in their home seats

Yeah, I went home to vote and only just got back to Uni and hour ago.


PS
Charlie K's got the whole drunken brawl thing going on.

	05-05-2005 16:07									#17
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quote: Originally posted by child of Thor I voted this morning - Lib

Same here, although Labour always get in around here, I only went to see my old school. Also heard some students threatening to vote Green.

	05-05-2005 16:08									#18
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Neo-con Labour - I love that, it sums Tony up nicely.

Good job he is the lesser of all evils on offer or he could be in real trouble.

	05-05-2005 16:11									#19
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There's really nothing else on offer. Tories crippled themselves by responding to Labour's turn to the centre-right by heading into far-right territory, which won't appeal to anything aside from their most loyal fan base which they have sewn up already anyway. Lib Dems are building, but they suffer under the lack of proportional representation (whereas labour and the tories benefit from this).

I have a feeling a lot of people voting labour today will do so because they want brown in a few yesrs rather than to keep tony in.

	05-05-2005 16:13									#20
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Are there UKIP candidates in this national election, or do they pop in only during European elections?

	05-05-2005 16:19									#21
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UKIP, Veritas, Respect, Greens etc basically have no chance to get any seats. It's the whole 1st past the post thing.

	05-05-2005 16:24									#22
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quote: Good job he is the lesser of all evils on offer or he could be in real trouble.

I find it staggering that people feel this way.

Labour have reduced child poverty by a quarter, and pleged to halve in by 2010 and eradicate it by 2020.

They've doubled international aid, introduced the minumum wage (something Atlee, Wilson and Callaghan never did), begun to reduce income inequality, introduced tax credits to aid the worst off, massively increased spending on health and education, as well as a million other things. They don't talk about it because they're scared of scaring off centrist voter.

Howard on the other hand wants to subsidise private education and healthcare and has run a horribly xenophobic campaign.

There's a million miles between the two parties - what do you want? Nationalisation of key industries? Incomes policies? Keynsian economics?

I hope people deserting Labour for the Lib Dems know what they're doing. If they leave Labour with an unworkable majority, they stop Labour extending all the good they've done - all so they can feel smug that they gave Tony Blair a black eye. It's so selfish and seld-indulgent - middle class Labour to Lib Dem switchers aren't the ones who will suffer if Labour is crippled.

	05-05-2005 16:43									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Zulu Elephant I hope people deserting Labour for the Lib Dems know what they're doing. If they leave Labour with an unworkable majority, they stop Labour extending all the good they've done - all so they can feel smug that they gave Tony Blair a black eye. It's so selfish and self-indulgent - middle class Labour to Lib Dem switchers aren't the ones who will suffer if Labour is crippled.

So's wageing an illegal war because amercia(edit: well i should say Bush, to be fair to america in general) told us too

That is the whole reason i'm now a Liberal, all the other good Tony and Neo-Labour had done upto that point counted for nothing after, i just really feel that deep in my gut

	05-05-2005 16:47									#24
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I think toni Blah will be returned with a reduced majority

	05-05-2005 16:50									#25
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Me too - hopefully reduced enough that the message is loud and clear

And who knows, maybe next time the Liberals will be in a better position to challange for the big boys chair

	05-05-2005 16:54									#26
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quote: Originally posted by child of Thor So's wageing an illegal war because amercia told us too That is the whole reason i'm now a Liberal, all the other good Tony and Neo-Labour had done upto that point counted for nothing after, i just really feel that deep in my gut

Tony Blair went to war with Iraq for the same reason as Kosovo, Sierra Leone and Afghanistan - he felt it was the right thing to do. Whether you agree with him or not, its certainly untrue to say that he went to war just because america wanted to. He argued with Clinton, trying to persuade him to step in with Kosovo - hardly a lapdog attitude.

And i dont see why the war in iraq negates all the good that labour have done for the least well off.

	05-05-2005 17:03									#27
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Would vote but didn't get a voting jobbywotsit through the post, so had no idea where to go this morning. Finally found a list of polling stations on this fabulous intraweb thingy but none are near where i work ( which is ~1.5mi away from home ).

Got work do this evening too so no chance to do it then, ah well - c'est la vie!

	05-05-2005 17:08									#28
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quote: Originally posted by child of Thor Tony 'False smiles' Blair and his 'Neo(con)- labour'

What type of smuck thinks Tony Blair is a neo-con?

	05-05-2005 17:10									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin What type of smuck thinks Tony Blair is a neo-con?

	05-05-2005 17:17									#30
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I was actually planning on voting in this one. My gf failed to post her postal vote, anyone know if I can turn up at a polling station and hand it in for her? Shes voting the right way in a marginal so its quite important I get this in.....