06-05-2005 23:13									#211
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The MP for Baghdad Central got a new seat.

	06-05-2005 23:57									#212
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It's nearly all over now...

I'd like to post this in a new thread, but I'm not too sure if it would be allowed, so I'll ask here - we've seen what's happened in the mainland UK; what do people think of the results in NI so far? It looks as though the UUP are finished as a political force; they've lost all their seats, except for North Down to the DUP. Trimble's lost his seat, he'll certainly be resigning.

Nationalist side of it; things are looking up a bit; the SDLP managed to capture Belfast South. Hopefully they can hold on to their existing seats against SF. Sadly it looks as though all the negative publicity within the past few months hasn't dented these thug's popularity.

It looks like we're going to have a bigot and a terrorist leading the two biggest parties in the North for the forseeable future.

	06-05-2005 23:57									#213
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Dolphin: Yeh, what a crock of sh!t.

	06-05-2005 23:58									#214
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quote: It should be pointed out now that all of the 3 leaders who participated in the initial invasion of Iraq with a serious contribution, Bush, Blair, and Howard, all 3 of them have been re-elected. All this in spite of angry protests from the left that those leaders who ordered this would all be defeated and swept from power, instead all three of them now remain.

Are you on crack?

Bush got elected because the majority of Americans are morons. Howard got elected for economic reasons.

Labour got elected in spite of Blair, and because the opposition Conservatives also supported the war. Most people want Blair out, but they don't want to inflict more years of Tory misrule on themselves.

Blair will probably go sooner rather than later because of this result.

	07-05-2005 00:09									#215
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"Are you on crack?"

Not crack, just the sweet the thrill of victory. Three leaders ordered the invasion, three leaders re-elected All of the left's threats of electoral defeat for the coalitions have shown to add up to absolutely nothing!

	07-05-2005 00:10									#216
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi It should be pointed out now that all of the 3 leaders who participated in the initial invasion of Iraq with a serious contribution, Bush, Blair, and Howard, all 3 of them have been re-elected. All this in spite of angry protests from the left that those leaders who ordered this would all be defeated and swept from power, instead all three of them now remain.

arent you leaving out Rasmussen, who was also reelected?

	07-05-2005 00:13									#217
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Sure, so far I think the only real defeat for a coalition leader was in Spain, and the left needed an assist from Al Qaeda to accomplish that. But I was thinking mainly of the big 3 for the initial invasion.

	07-05-2005 00:16									#218
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In order for the Brits to elect a PM who was against the war, they would have had to elect the Liberal Democrats to power. 3rd parties usually don't make such a jump.

With the Conservatives, the rank and file were more for the war than the Labor rank and file.

	07-05-2005 00:20									#219
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As far as the North Irish votes, it seems sad that on the Unionist side they are all turning to extremism. Iain Paisley is a right-wing extremist and a known racist. The interesting thing will be seeing how many votes the SDLP and SF get compared to the UUP and DUP. With the greater birth rate among the Catholic population among NI compared to the Protestant population, it'll be interesting to see how much progress the Catholics are making due to birth rates.

	07-05-2005 01:12									#220
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Agathon: The thing I don't like about MMP (and especially in a small parliament like NZ's) is that protest votes and protest parties which get 5% or whatever have a tendancy to play a HUGE role in coalition governments (which there almost always are). So, instead of staying true to the 40% or whatever of voters that voted for it, they have to do exactly what the 10% or whatever want and have to push their own agendas slightly back.

Had the Maori party been established in 2002, it would have been in coalition in Labour, and there is no chance the foreshore and Seabed legislation would have passed, merely because some 5% of voters voted for the Maori Party.

As James Madison said, in this format it's not the majority that gets the power, it is always the minority.

	07-05-2005 03:02									#221
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The Scottish Parliament has a complicated electoral system combining first-past-the-post and regional PR. Each voter gets two votes, one for a local, named MSP, and one for a regional party.

It works OK. Smaller parties can easily break through via the PR, but also need to work hard at accumulating seats.

	07-05-2005 04:10									#222
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quote: Originally posted by Dauphin The MP for Baghdad Central got a new seat.

Looks like you kept your Tory MP too

	07-05-2005 04:45									#223
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quote: Agathon: The thing I don't like about MMP (and especially in a small parliament like NZ's) is that protest votes and protest parties which get 5% or whatever have a tendancy to play a HUGE role in coalition governments (which there almost always are). So, instead of staying true to the 40% or whatever of voters that voted for it, they have to do exactly what the 10% or whatever want and have to push their own agendas slightly back.

No they don't. The public won't stand for that. That's one of the reasons Peters got spanked in the 1999 election. There has been little of this kind of trouble since.

A party that frivolously brings down a reasonably popular government is signing its own death warrant.

quote: Had the Maori party been established in 2002, it would have been in coalition in Labour, and there is no chance the foreshore and Seabed legislation would have passed, merely because some 5% of voters voted for the Maori Party.

There's nothing stopping the Labour party from peeling off a few votes from other interested parties in exchange for a few titbits. If not, Labour can bribe the Maori party.

quote: As James Madison said, in this format it's not the majority that gets the power, it is always the minority.

Except that recent history proves you wrong. Peters tried to do exactly this and got spanked - as did the Mari Pacific cretins. Neither the Greens, the Alliance, Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition (i.e. Jim Anderton) or United have messed around like this.

	07-05-2005 04:48									#224
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Nice to see that Galloway won a seat. After all the lies that were printed about him, it's good to see the electorate saw through it.

	07-05-2005 11:34									#225
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BNP > Plaid Cymru

	07-05-2005 14:23									#226
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Agathon: What about the modified Sainte-Lague formula NZ uses having, in its nature, a bias toward smaller parties through its 1.4-3-5-7 dividing system?

	07-05-2005 14:39									#227
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Well i'm pleasanty surprised. I didn't think the Liberals would make as many gains as they did.
Still the no surprise is that Labour(and Tony for maybe another 5 years!) won, and the Torries didn't really mount a threat.

Democracy in this country has been streangthend imho, and with a vastly reduced majority new labour, we will be unlikely to see another Iraq type situation ever getting through for the remainder of Tony's time in power
So in that respect one of my biggest fears has been addressed.

As a side note this is what the different parties roughly needed, votes wise, to gain the same seat.

New Labour = 24000 votes
Conservatives= 40000 votes
Liberals= 100000 votes

So as the biggest gainers this election with +11 new seats, you get some idea of just how many people(like myself) switched from New Labour to Liberals

	07-05-2005 15:26									#228
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quote: Originally posted by Provost Harrison Looks like you kept your Tory MP too

Technically, not too much of a problem. He's served as an MP for all three main parties, so I assume he's fairly centrist.

	07-05-2005 15:28									#229
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Nice to see that Galloway won a seat. After all the lies that were printed about him, it's good to see the electorate saw through it.

Yes, wonder why he chose the constituency he did, eh?

	07-05-2005 15:31									#230
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quote: Originally posted by Dauphin Yes, wonder why he chose the constituency he did, eh?

Because he really, really cares about people killing Muslims. Unless it's Saddam Hussein killing them of course, in which case, he gets a handshake and fawning congratulations on being such an indefatigable Dear Leader.



Galloway: gallstones. Too similar for coincidence, I feel.

	07-05-2005 15:46									#231
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi Not crack, just the sweet the thrill of victory. Three leaders ordered the invasion, three leaders re-elected All of the left's threats of electoral defeat for the coalitions have shown to add up to absolutely nothing!

Considering all leaders live in very safe seats, I can't remember the last time a leader of *any* party lost his seat. And the leftosty coalitions have managed to get George Galloway elected, a far far less likely thing than deposing any of the main party leaders.

Moreover, the votes in utterly safe Tory seats, like Howard, don't usually care about things like the Iraq war.

	07-05-2005 15:49									#232
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an article explaining in more detail just how a reduced majority for New Labour and Tony Blair would/could work out:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_polit...ues/4523035.stm

	07-05-2005 16:02									#233
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue Considering all leaders live in very safe seats, I can't remember the last time a leader of *any* party lost his seat.

'Twas this election, and 'twas David Trimble.

	07-05-2005 16:09									#234
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Alex Salmond?

	07-05-2005 16:12									#235
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quote: Originally posted by molly bloom 'Twas this election, and 'twas David Trimble.

Sorry, should have said main party. I was just answering the point that it means absolutely nothing that Howard and Blair kept their seat, as there was never a chance of them losing it.

	07-05-2005 16:15									#236
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It would have been nice that if Thatcher would've hung on for a few more terms she would have had the pleasure of having her seat pulled from underneath her

	07-05-2005 16:19									#237
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I cant believe we lost Guildford

Pipped to the post by about 350 votes, so thats roughly a swing of ~800 votes I wish I had got my finger out and actually done something about it though

But good to see calls of 'two year Teather' were premature! I should have took Iain up on his bet

	07-05-2005 16:20									#238
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue Sorry, should have said main party.

Hmmm. Ramsay Macdonald springs to mind.

	07-05-2005 16:50									#239
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quote: Originally posted by our_man edit.... It looks like we're going to have a bigot and a terrorist leading the two biggest parties in the North for the forseeable future.

Sadly i'll agree with you - Ian Paisley was spitting hate and bile this morning on tv
I've enjoyed all my visits to Ireland and i just dont think the people of Ireland need people like these to keep old wounds open and ultimately they will ensure the killing will continue
hopefully once this older generation have died out you can all have a deserved peace, as most younger people i've met have told me they are sick of all the troubles.

	07-05-2005 16:51									#240
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quote: Originally posted by child of Thor Sadly i'll agree with you - Ian Paisley was spitting hate and bile this morning on tv

Aha- more recruits for Sinn Fein. You'd think Paisley would demand a finder's fee.....