06-05-2005 04:45									#121
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi This could be big news, in Putney the Tories retake the seat with a swing of 6%. If the Tories can get that swing in marginals nationwide, that could mean a hung parliament.

Smaller swing to the liberals in this, the first marginal seat to be declared.

This is a 'natural' conservative seat - one of the real shock gains in '97 when labour came to power and one of the ones that (if the conservatives were going to gain ANY seats) the conservatives were going to win

	06-05-2005 04:50									#122
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I don't think it's quite come to this yet, but im starting to think that a hung parliament would be better than a devastatingly low Labour majority.

Blair would go, there would be another election, probably in October and Labour would get back with a good majority due to a new, more popular leader (Brown) and the fact that Lib Dems would FINALLY realise what is at stake and come back over to labour (who would then not be led by a 'warmonger' in their eyes)

	06-05-2005 04:56									#123
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There are alot of "natural" Tory seats that are in Labour hands currently.

Lib Dems get a positive Swing against the Tories in Southport, which bodes well for them.

As for a hung parliament, would a Labour/LibDem coalition be likely in that case?

	06-05-2005 05:02									#124
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Wouldn't happen. Charles Kennedy already ruled it out. Hung parliament would be hung, none of the three main parties would enter a coalition with another.

	06-05-2005 05:04									#125
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Miliband holds South Shields. I know it’s not significant but I used to work for him and I just want to declare a public congratulations.

A stunningly intelligent, witty and compassionate guy. The sort of MP that any party would be lucky to have

quote: As for a hung parliament, would a Labour/LibDem coalition be likely in that case?

Charles Kennedy is on record saying that he would not prop up a "Labour government in decline" and would not enter a coalition with them.

A hung parliament would result in another election later this year and would be a knightmare for the Liberals. Labour would surge back, regaining huge swathes of Liberal Democrat protest votes under a new leader (likely to be Gordon Brown) who would be untarnished by Iraq.

	06-05-2005 05:12									#126
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Labour currently have less than 50% of the votes....but still a huge majority when it comes to seats I have said it before and I'll say it again: proportional representation is the only way to go.

	06-05-2005 05:12									#127
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Nope, a hung parliament would result in a minority government, as appointed by the Queen.

	06-05-2005 05:14									#128
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Proportional representation
With results like these, we would then see some BNP representatives.

EDIT: notice the edit.

	06-05-2005 05:16									#129
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What is it about Labour wards declaring early? 56 vs 3 vs 3.

	06-05-2005 05:18									#130
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They've Americanized teh results: the self-proclaimed "political experts" declare the results of areas before votes have even been counted yet.

Remember, the network which has the results earlier than other networks gets better ratings.

	06-05-2005 05:18									#131
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quote: Originally posted by VJ Proportional representation With results like these, we would then see some BNP representatives.

And a couple of Greens

	06-05-2005 05:19									#132
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue Nope, a hung parliament would result in a minority government, as appointed by the Queen.

Not necessarily. Didn't happen last time iirc (rather difficult seeing as how I wasnt alive).

	06-05-2005 05:20									#133
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Exit polls show Labour retaining a 66 seat majority...

	06-05-2005 05:22									#134
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I saw the BNP got 5% in Blackburn, they have also gotten significant shares of the vote in other places. Are there really so many Nazis in Britain?

	06-05-2005 05:23									#135
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Seems like roughly a 3% swing from Labour to the Tories. But main issue being that the Tories have also lost votes - big gains for the Lib Dems, up 5% on those wards declared last time

	06-05-2005 05:23									#136
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue Nope, a hung parliament would result in a minority government, as appointed by the Queen.

Not in the UK. Hung parliaments result in new elections sooner rather than later. I wasnt saying it is constitutionally neccessary to have another election but minority governments dont work in the UK. They cant get the support for ANY election.

Labour would run the country as a minority government but there would be another election called ASAP.

quote: Proportional representation With results like these, we would then see some BNP representatives.

There would be, but who cares? A lot of the BNP increase in the vote is due to them convincing people that they're a moderate, pro-Britain party. As soon as they got into parliament,they would be exposed at the fascist, racist, xenophobic, bigot, f*ckers that they are.

Also, PR would result in a number of Green and Socialst parties winning, more than balancing out the far right.

	06-05-2005 05:24									#137
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quote: Originally posted by Verres Not necessarily. Didn't happen last time iirc (rather difficult seeing as how I wasnt alive).

Happened in the 70s. Wilson led a minority Labour government, which only had a few more seats than the Tories. It doesn't have to happen like that though, true.

	06-05-2005 05:27									#138
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue Happened in the 70s. Wilson led a minority Labour government, which only had a few more seats than the Tories. It doesn't have to happen like that though, true.

When exactly are you talking about? 1974? In that case, there was another election called a few months later in October

	06-05-2005 05:27									#139
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quote: Seems like roughly a 3% swing from Labour to the Tories. But main issue being that the Tories have also lost votes - big gains for the Lib Dems, up 5% on those wards declared last time

Yeah, labour has been taking lots of heavy losses in "safe labour" districts in the north with LD gaining.

quote: There would be, that who cares? A lot of the BNP increase in the vote is due to them convincing people that they're a moderate, pro-Britain party. As soon as they got into parliament,they would be exposed at the fascist, racist, xenophobic, bigot, f*ckers that they are.

Yes, which would mean that nobody would vote them next time around. Just imagine, BNP dying.

	06-05-2005 05:28									#140
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quote: Originally posted by Zulu Elephant Not in the UK. Hung parliaments result in new elections sooner rather than later. I wasnt saying it is constitutionally neccessary to have another election but minority governments dont work in the UK. They cant get the support for ANY election. Labour would run the country as a minority government but there would be another election called ASAP.

True, but that would be up to them, I think. They could run the country as a minority government, very ineffectively.

It probably would result in another election soon though.

	06-05-2005 05:29									#141
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I meant it wasnt appointed by the Queen. Heath resigned after trying to reach a comprimise....and another election was held later that year, as Zulu Elephant predicted this time round.

	06-05-2005 05:29									#142
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quote: Originally posted by Zulu Elephant When exactly are you talking about? 1974? In that case, there was another election called a few months later in October

Yes. But there was still a minority government, that called the election a few months later.

	06-05-2005 05:29									#143
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Swing to the Tories of 7% in a pickup at Peterborough, this could be bad for Labour.

	06-05-2005 05:30									#144
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quote: Originally posted by Verres I meant it wasnt appointed by the Queen. Heath resigned after trying to reach a comprimise....and another election was held later that year, as Zulu Elephant predicted this time round.

That is true, except the Queen did appoint Wilson. In a hung parliament, it is up to the Queen to appoint the PM. Heath stayed until after the election a few months later.

	06-05-2005 05:31									#145
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Google skills aside - I don't need you to tell me I'm correct Drogue. That was the previous election which I was talking about in the 1st place, the whole 'appointment by the queen' thing is no more than a formality these days.

	06-05-2005 05:33									#146
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Cons aren't gaining enough. In some wards, they're actually losing 5% of the vote for LD and BNP.

EDIT: Or, OTOH, it could mean that they have been concentrating on wards they could actually win. Newbury results: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/419.stm

	06-05-2005 05:35									#147
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Yep Conservative vote is actually down, despite the Labour swing to them

	06-05-2005 05:42									#148
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Birmingham Edgebaston held by Labour. Labour lose 6% but this is dispersed across all other parties, leaving them with a majority.

*praying that this is the norm across the country*

	06-05-2005 05:42									#149
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quote: Originally posted by VJ Cons aren't gaining enough. In some wards, they're actually losing 5% of the vote for LD and BNP. EDIT: Or, OTOH, it could mean that they have been concentrating on wards they could actually win.

Like Cheadle? Their #1 target seat that the Lib Dems hold. Newbury was a good gain, but I feel we'll see more in the other direction tonight

	06-05-2005 05:44									#150
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Labour look set for a 60-70 seat majority, Lib Dems for vote gains but this translating into only 10 or so extra seats. Conservatives gain a lot.