08-06-2005 22:58									#121
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quote: Originally posted by Last Conformist Expecting me to accept a Marxist definition of capitalism?

It's not like Marx had anything to do with the original definition of the term.

	08-06-2005 23:00									#122
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"Brazil, too, had considered increasing its reliance on Bolivian gas, but the recent turmoil and the discovery of a new gas field near the industrial city of São Paulo is leading the government to reconsider its options.

Highlighting that reluctance, Argentina and Brazil are expected to sign an agreement later this week with Chile and Uruguay to study the feasibility of building a $2.5 billion pipeline to bring Peruvian gas into their countries, bypassing Bolivia.

The new gas laws have already led several companies to announce delays in current and future investments. Brazilian giant Petrobras, for instance, says it may postpone plans for a $1.3 billion natural gas facility on the Bolivia-Brazil border. Estimates have put the total cost of delayed or canceled projects at $10 billion."

So much for international leftist solidarity. Evidently the Lula govt in Brazil doesnt have much patience with this sort of thing.

	08-06-2005 23:02									#123
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Since no one has provided any evidence on Bolivia being a kleptocracty I decided to check into it.

According to Transperancy International none of the recent leaders of Bolivia are on the top ten kleptocrats list. Sorry, try another bald assertion.

	08-06-2005 23:04									#124
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I don't think South Korea, Taiwan, or Thailand do, but I'm willing to be wrong. Also, Thailand ain't a republic, it's a monarchy. Anyway, Taiwan and SK are democratic today, as recently as ten years ago, they weren't or were just barely. The Asian tigers prove that neither democracy nor the free market are necessary to develop a country. In fact, in the modern era, the free market does more to harm 3rd World countries, since their economy is not developed for their own needs but for the needs of international capitalism. Any country that wants to develop should tell Oerdin, Vel, the IMF, Maggie Thatcher, etc. to shove it, and adopt the Asian method.

while the asian tigers all had some degree of central planning, they also were open to the market, invited foreign investment, and IIUC, maintained relatively stable currencies. They are counter examples against a libertarian view of free markets - they are NOT counter examples against either IMF policies or globalization in general.

oh and they all had a strong commitment to the rule of law in the ecomic sphere, which is what I think Vel was driving at.

	08-06-2005 23:05									#125
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quote: Evidently the Lula govt in Brazil doesnt have much patience with this sort of thing.

The Lula government is largely a joke.

	08-06-2005 23:07									#126
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon quote: Evidently the Lula govt in Brazil doesnt have much patience with this sort of thing. The Lula government is largely a joke.

Its not an example of the emergence of anti-US leftism? I guess said phenomenon is not as widespread as some here implied.

	08-06-2005 23:09									#127
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It may be, but they don't count since Lula doesn't do everything the way Agathon wants him to do things.

	08-06-2005 23:11									#128
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Its not an example of the emergence of anti-US leftism? I guess said phenomenon is not as widespread as some here implied.

No. It's a compromise – a Latin American version of Blairism really.

Chavez is a fundamentally different beast – he identifies himself and his policies as revolutionary, but even he isn't anywhere near what some of the Bolivans want. Fidel is probably closer to them.

At the moment, it seems that the Bolivian movement is increasingly Guevarist. Whether it stays that way is anyone's guess. Given my poor track record at predicting what will happen there, I'm not going to make a definite prediction.

	08-06-2005 23:14									#129
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quote: Originally posted by pchang It may be, but they don't count since Lula doesn't do everything the way Agathon wants him to do things.

Pray tell, what would that be?

The difference is that Lula is a reformist and not a revolutionary. He seeks to modify a capitalist economy to provide better treatment for the poor. He's still playing the neoliberal game, even though his opponents might question some of his moves. Chavez is different – he is playing the game as far as it suits him, but his aims are more revolutionary. The Bolivian protesters want the whole Enchilada.

That's a difference of fact. I would tend to side with the latter two, but that doesn't change the facts.

	08-06-2005 23:14									#130
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Without a vangaurd organization to take the revolution to its next step, it will not go anwhere. If the current government collapses, and nothing exists to replace it, the old elite will regain and retain power.

	08-06-2005 23:14									#131
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious Since no one has provided any evidence on Bolivia being a kleptocracty I decided to check into it. According to Transperancy International none of the recent leaders of Bolivia are on the top ten kleptocrats list. Sorry, try another bald assertion.

Why would a leader of Bolivia be in the top ten?

	08-06-2005 23:18									#132
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Why so much hostility Kuciwalker?

	08-06-2005 23:20									#133
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Without a vangaurd organization to take the revolution to its next step, it will not go anwhere. If the current government collapses, and nothing exists to replace it, the old elite will regain and retain power.

I'm not so sure. The militant unions and other groups are already involved. It's up to them to work things out if that happens. Given the fact that chaos is unlikely to make the life of the average Bolivian much worse than it currently is, I give them a fair bit of time to sort things out.

But if you feel strongly that this is the case, catch a plane there. I'd love to be wearing "Chegitz" T-Shirts and buying posters of you and beer with your ugly mug printed on the bottle in twenty years time.

	08-06-2005 23:57									#134
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon It's not just anti-US. It is anti-imperialist. Most people in the third world don't see why their countries should be run for the benefit of people living Europe and North America. I think their case is unanswerable in that regard.

And unfortunately, too many Americans are baffled as to why people of other counttries do not want foreign government to interfere with their economy and government affairs.

Would we Americans like to be in the same situation as Latim Americans? Would we like to live in a United States where a powerful, foreign nation consantly finds subtle and not-so subtle means to interfere with our own internal affairs?

	09-06-2005 00:13									#135
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon The militant unions and other groups are already involved.

If these groups are capable of taking the revolution to its next step, then they are the vanguard organizations. A Leninist party is not the only possible vanguard, just the most probable.


Hmmm, chegitz t-shirts . . .

	09-06-2005 00:20									#136
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"Most people in the third world don't see why their countries should be run for the benefit of people living Europe and North America. I think their case is unanswerable in that regard"

Statistically most people in the less developed world live in China or India. Where they seem to have concluded most definitively that trading with the rest of the world, allowing foreign direct investment, etc are the what is necessary for the benefit of their own people. In India, which is a democracy, that policy has now survived a couple of changes in the ruling party.


Of course China and India are not exporters of hydrocarbons.

	09-06-2005 00:27									#137
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Without a vangaurd organization to take the revolution to its next step, it will not go anwhere. If the current government collapses, and nothing exists to replace it, the old elite will regain and retain power.

so? even if a vanguard organization DOES take power, and DOES nationalize the energy biz, its still possible the old elites will eventually infiltrate that organization and run the nationalized energy biz. See Mexico, PRI, and Pemex.

BTW, in Venezuala, its the NATIONALIZED oil company thats been resisting Chavez, isnt it? To a great degree elite power in Latin America is INDEPENDENT of capitalism as a form of social organization (and I dont here equate capitalism with the free market, but simply private ownership of the means of production)

	09-06-2005 00:42									#138
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Stop being serious LOTM!!! We wants our Chegitz branded beer!!

	09-06-2005 01:08									#139
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unfortunately its quite serious, aggie. Despite what we've been told here, its not just a tiny handful of La Paz "capitalists" who oppose nationalization. The provinces where the gas is actually found, are mainly non-Indian, and mainly oppose nationalization, and want more autonomy. If the left takes power, especially if, as seems possible, the left takes power by violence, rather than through elections, those provinces can be expected to resist.

	09-06-2005 01:20									#140
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quote: unfortunately its quite serious, aggie. Despite what we've been told here, its not just a tiny handful of La Paz "capitalists" who oppose nationalization. The provinces where the gas is actually found, are mainly non-Indian, and mainly oppose nationalization, and want more autonomy. If the left takes power, especially if, as seems possible, the left takes power by violence, rather than through elections, those provinces can be expected to resist.

You mean that the people in the areas where the gas is found (and mainly richer people in fact) want more, even though their only connection to the gas is the fact they they live there.

I've heard this sort of argument before in Canada. It's just people trying to get more for no good reasons. It's anti-democratic nonsense.

Besides, that appraisal of the situation is false according to the Beeb:

quote: Far away from the highlands of La Paz, in the city of Santa Cruz in the country's south-east, another conflict has been brewing. This region is home to the gas reserves and here, a powerful business elite mostly of European descent, exasperated by the continuing chaos, has been pushing for far greater regional autonomy and a bigger share of the region's gas and oil wealth. This movement is largely opposed by the highland protesters - and, indeed, by a sizeable proportion of local indigenous people. Leaders here have pledged to hold a referendum on increased autonomy on 12 August - with or without the approval of central government, setting the stage for further conflicts in future

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4613993.stm

	09-06-2005 01:26									#141
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The bit you quoted doesn't seem to contradict LOTM's claims.

	09-06-2005 01:30									#142
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What? "A powerful business elite" isn't plausibly identified with "a tiny handful of La Paz "capitalists"?

Presumably the shopkeepers and small businessmen of La Paz cannot reasonably be conflated with "a powerful business elite" unless the meaning of "elite" has changed.

	09-06-2005 01:53									#143
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i cant imagine everyone in those provinces is part of a business elite, or theyre the oddest provinces in Latin America. They ARE mainly European descended, IIUC, but thats not that unusual - and certainly not every South American of Euro descent is part of a business elite.

	09-06-2005 01:53									#144
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You mean that the people in the areas where the gas is found (and mainly richer people in fact) want more, even though their only connection to the gas is the fact they they live there.

Yep. Private ownership is a beautiful thing, and the people who own the land also have a claim to whatever might be buried beneath it.

All the most wildly successful economic entities on the planet owe their success TO this very mechanism. If the Bolivians decide to gut their own laws regarding private ownership and take the land by force, it makes sense to expect resistance by the current (rightful) owners.

Of course, many red revolutions have been based around the notion that might makes right, and if that occurs, this one will get off to a similar start, but we shall see.

-=Vel=-

	09-06-2005 01:55									#145
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"Santa Cruz is a department in Bolivia. Population (2001 census) 2,029,471. The capital is the city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra.

The department covers a vast expanse of territory in eastern Bolivia, much of it rainforests, extending from the Andes to the border with Brazil. The department's economy depends largely on agriculture, with sugar, cotton, soybeans and rice being grown. In recent years, the discovery of natural gas in the department has led to plans for the development of a regional natural gas industry that will likely boost the local economy. In July 2004, the people of Bolivia voted in a nation-wide referendum to allow for regulated exportation of the gas.

The department is divided in 15 provinces."

	09-06-2005 02:03									#146
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The NYT:

In Bolivia's Elitist Corner, There's Talk of Cutting Loose
By JUAN FORERO

Published: August 27, 2004

SANTA CRUZ, Bolivia - This low-lying city on the edge of the Amazon has long had something of a superiority complex, which was put embarrassingly on display in June at the Miss Universe competition. Bolivia's contestant, Gabriela Oviedo, a strapping Santa Cruz native, told judges that not all her countrymen were "poor people and very short people and Indian people."


"I'm from the other side of the country, from the east, where it's not cold," she added. "It's very hot, and we're tall, and we are white and can speak English."

The comments incensed the government in La Paz, the capital 13,000 feet in the Andes, which has struggled with restive indigenous groups whose uprisings have paralyzed the country in recent years. But Cruceños, as the people of Santa Cruz are called, have been decidedly vociferous in proclaiming their cultural, ethnic and social differences with Bolivian highlanders.

So remote do the troubles of the highlands seem, and so economically burdened do the people of this region rich in natural gas feel, that they have begun talking about autonomy and, in isolated cases, outright secession.

The rift between the highlands and this city and province, also called Santa Cruz, is emblematic of a country riven by regionalism and the centuries-old resentments between Bolivia's highland Indians and its traditional ruling classes.

Santa Cruz feels like another world from the highland's frigid, windswept plains. This city of 1.4 millionpeople is dotted with shining skyscapers. Cafes line busy streets, and broad avenues feature multinational companies, from Goodyear to Petrobras to Kia Motors. The city by itself generates nearly a third of Bolivia's gross domestic product, more than half its exports and most of its tax receipts. The affluent, who speak Portuguese as well as Spanish, look less to La Paz than east to Brazil, 100 miles closer.

"There are people here who do not recognize Bolivia," said Sergio Antelo, a former mayor and leader of a group, Camba Nation, whose members are particularly strident. "They are a nation apart, like a nation without a state."

The secession movement is still on the fringe, driven largely by emotion and, some critics say, racism, since some of its proponents are quick to point out that most inhabitants here are of mixed races, not full-blooded Aymara or Quechua Indians, as are the vast majority in the rest of this nation of eight million people.

But the sentiments underscore the increasingly hard feelings of Cruceños, who feel that President Carlos Mesa has made economically ruinous decisions at their expense as he tries to walk a line between indigenous groups doggedly opposed to globalization and businessmen who favor market reforms and economic ties with Bolivia's neighbors.

Forty years ago, Santa Cruz was a hot and dusty honky-tonk of dirt streets, crumbling colonial-era structures and grizzled frontiersmen. Secluded and poor, it had 50,000 people, many working in a nascent sugar industry.

But as hard-working migrants from across the country moved here, the province's percentage of Bolivia's total population rose from 15 percent in 1976 to 25 percent today. Foreign investment in Santa Cruz has shot up in recent years, while in Bolivia generally it has fallen. Today this city is the engine of Bolivia's economic growth.

Yet many Cruceños believe the city's future is uncertain, particularly since President Mesa held a referendum in July asking Bolivians whether the country should export natural gas while raising taxes and other restrictions on private energy companies.

The measure passed, but people here saw the very fact of a referendum as indicative of what they see as the government's weak-willed leadership in the face of pressure tactics from radical Indian groups.

"Economic issues should not be debated in a referendum," said Óscar Ortiz, general manager of the Cainco industrial group. "We are now in the calm before the storm."

Lorgio Balcázar, general manager of the Pro Santa Cruz Civic Committee, which favors autonomy, added: "We are headed to the abyss. No one wants to invest. There is no certainty."

	09-06-2005 02:08									#147
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon What? "A powerful business elite" isn't plausibly identified with "a tiny handful of La Paz "capitalists"?

Not when said business elite appears to be located in Santa Cruz, no.

	09-06-2005 02:18									#148
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Chavez is bent on forming an anti-US coalition, not only in South America, but all over the world.

Other then Castro Chavez is not widely admired in Latin America. The most poular politician in Lation American right now is Lula due to his policies of balancing the budget, protecting property rights, and expanding social services. It doesn't hurt that Lula told the US/EU that he wouldn't agree to a free trade agreement until the farm subsidies get stopped in the first world.

	09-06-2005 02:25									#149
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon A few years back some Bolivians managed to boot out Bechtel's water privatization scheme.

Yeah, and what's the end result of that? The people still don't have clean drinking water because they stupidly demanded that everyone get treated water for free. In order to establish a utility network pipes must be laid, pumping stations built, chemicals bought, engineers hired, workers hired, etc... That all costs money then you have to maintain the system which costs still more money.

The socialists are claiming the government should pay for all of this but the Bolivian government already had a debt crisis a few years back and it barely can service the debt it already has. Bolivia's state and local governments were counting on additional funds from the development of the natural gas sector but that is looking increasingly questionable. Not only would companies need to spend money surveying gas fields & drilling wells but they also have to build processing stations and (most expensively) they need to build a pipeline through a neighboring country so they can deliver LNG to a port so it can be exported to market. They're not going to spend those billions of dollars out of the goodness of their heart; they want to make a profit off of it.

	09-06-2005 02:33									#150
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon quote: Evidently the Lula govt in Brazil doesnt have much patience with this sort of thing. The Lula government is largely a joke.

Lula is very popular in Latin America even if you commies don't like him. Lula is a moderately left of center politician who understands that in order to pay for social services you need a growing economy. Thus he's promoting sound economic policies while also boosting spending on education, health care, pensions, and pushing land reform.

Land reform might become problematic for Brazil in the long run since Lula is talking about taxing large estates (like cattle ranches) to break them up then giving away the land to peasants for next to nothing. Brazil needs exports to grow its economy and the last thing it needs are more poverty stricken peasant farmers on lots so small they can't even feed themselves. I'd be pushing a greatly expanded small business administration if I was in charge of Brazil. Try to get more start up companies running as that is where the jobs will come from which will make people's lives better. Not tiny farms with depleted tropical soils.