10-01-2002 05:39									#271
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Colon: the video card is probably hosed. That's all. Get a new card.

If you want to troubleshoot it, try reseating the card in the slot in the computer. Also, it might be that your card is overheating. What kind of card is it? Does it have a fan on the card?

"I don't think pork is playing a big role in this... esp as the EU budget is 1 % of GDP, and 5 % of the budget is admin cost..."

Roland: I'm guessing that this figure will grow.

Last edited by DanS on 10-01-2002 at 05:51

	10-01-2002 06:01									#272
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It is interesting to note that the data in the report mentioned by Colon uses the old (pre-2000 census) data for the US.

As the census found an extra 7m people (or 2.5%) the respective figures for GDP per capita and Employment as a percentage of the working age populatuion will be reduced.

Using the updated census figures then the EU's GDP per head relative to the US was unchanged during 1990-2000 and the US's employment rate was static during the 1990's.

	10-01-2002 07:52									#273
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"Using the updated census figures then the EU's GDP per head relative to the US was unchanged during 1990-2000"

See, my optimism has already paid off!

	10-01-2002 13:30									#274
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Dan:

"The report writer seems like he was about to put an end to his miserable existence over the differences in per capita GDP!"

Don't forget that one function of those reports is to push an agenda. They also use PPPs that seem to be on the high end for dollar value.

"Europe won't like it at all, but there will be probably be a marked upward shift in labor utilization. The US has been undergoing this over the last ~ 20 years and it truly sucks in many ways. See Denmark, Austria, Sweden, Netherlands for countries that seem to have already made a switch to higher labor utilization."

The nrs in the report are a bit different from I had seen from Eurostat, but roughly, the EU is around 65 %, the US at maybe 72 % after the census data. Then, mainly Italy and Spain depress the number - and in Italy, you have beyond 70 % in the north at 5 % unemployment, and barely 50 % in the south at 20 % unemployment. Partial accounting for the shadow economy has other funny effects, but ok... overall, maybe a couple percentage points to go.

The bigger difference is in hours worked. And here I really don't get the reasons for the US trend. At one point I've been wondering whether it is related to heavy debt "encouragement"....

	10-01-2002 20:14									#275
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"The bigger difference is in hours worked. And here I really don't get the reasons for the US trend. At one point I've been wondering whether it is related to heavy debt "encouragement"...."

It would not surprise me.

But I guess the greater part of it is probably that people have more paying work, so they work. Nothing too complicated.

	10-01-2002 21:53									#276
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"more paying work"

More work, or higher pay ?

	10-01-2002 22:33									#277
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I don't really know how to separate the two. For hourly employees, they see that overtime at 1.5x or whatever is offered by their employer, so they take it. For salary employees, they get a new job with a nice fat paycheck and feel obliged (or are obliged) to work long hours. In both cases, there's more to do, and somebody is willing to incentivize them to do it.

	11-01-2002 00:32									#278
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Dan,
Actually, I didn't pay much attention to the report beyond the data. Seemed like blablabla to me.

My video card is a RIVA TNT2 M64. Not exactly state of the art but I don’t need anything stronger at the time. I don’t think it has it’s own cooler, though one is installed inside for the processor. Just letting it all cool down for a day or two doesn’t have any effect.

Roland,
I don't have much of a regular job, just doing the bar when they need additional manpower at parties. Works out well enough for me but I'm hoping for something steadier for the next year.
Thinking about going to Brussels to study business administration after I graduate, although doing this in another country would be nice as well.

Sten? Haven't heard much of him lately, I’m beginning to suspect that francophile ate my carrier pigeon.

	11-01-2002 03:21									#279
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Listen you punk ass Eurocoms, I got one thing to say, and you punk asses listen good:

KOHLENSAUREHALTIGE GETRANKE BITTE VOR VERSCHLIESSEN DER FLASCHE MIT EINEM LOFFEL AUSQUIRLEN!!!!

	11-01-2002 16:41									#280
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Dan:

"For hourly employees, they see that overtime at 1.5x or whatever is offered by their employer, so they take it."

Overtime is 1.5-2x normal pay here too. Until a couple of years ago, you even got a special tax break for that.
It is still a bit odd when the american works 2000 hours, and the german, austrian etc 1600 hours, when hourly pay is roughly the same.

Colon:

"Sten? Haven't heard much of him lately, I’m beginning to suspect that francophile ate my carrier pigeon."

LOL. I'm actually a bit worried how he got through all the bond market chaos....

Ted:

"KOHLENSAUREHALTIGE GETRANKE BITTE VOR VERSCHLIESSEN DER FLASCHE MIT EINEM LOFFEL AUSQUIRLEN!!!!"

Good advice. Just a year ago or so, we had an almost american style tort judgment here on that very issue...

	11-01-2002 20:40									#281
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Colon: you can probably pick up a perfectly servicable used GeForce2MX for about $20, which is much more advanced than the card you have now and will serve you well. edit: oh, and make sure you have an AGP slot in your motherboard.

"It is still a bit odd when the american works 2000 hours, and the german, austrian etc 1600 hours, when hourly pay is roughly the same."

Two possibilities: (1) y'all are lazy; or (2) Americans hate spending time with their families.

Seriously, I don't think it's a good assumption that the Austrians or Germans are offered overtime. If they were, they might take it. Please note that while the pay might be similar to the employee, it is often in the American employer's interest to have fewer employees because they have to pay at least some health benefits and the like. If push comes to shove and business is booming, manufacturing employers will sometimes make a little bit of overtime compulsory, unless the employee gets somebody to cover for them.

One other small factor is vacation. Most people Stateside get 2 weeks, if they are industrial workers. One compulsory around the holidays and one of the employee's chosing. This probably means about 100 hours right there...

Last edited by DanS on 11-01-2002 at 21:00

	11-01-2002 20:48									#282
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"Seriously, I don't think it's a good assumption that the Austrians or Germans are offered overtime. If they were, they might take it."

Huh ? Where on earth do you get the funny idea that people here aren't offered overtime (or have to work overtime) ?

"Please note that while the pay might be similar to the employee, it is often in the American employer's interest to have fewer employees because they have to pay at least some health benefits and the like."

Cost of workplace, hiring and firing cost, time to integrate and train new stuff etc - it's the same here. For peak demands you shift to overtime rather than hiring.

	11-01-2002 20:57									#283
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"Huh ? Where on earth do you get the funny idea that people here aren't offered overtime (or have to work overtime) ?"

The way I get the funny idea about having to work overtime is because some workers here do. Of course, employers want to have willing workers for overtime, but if push comes to shove, they'll spread the obligation around by making it compulsory (I think you can get out of it if you really want to).

And overtime is an incremental thing, so I don't find it odd to think that Austrians aren't offered nearly as much overtime as Americans. The numbers suggest it.

	11-01-2002 21:06									#284
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"The way I get the funny idea about having to work overtime is because some workers here do."

That was not what I asked. I don't have a fixed schedule, but my parents who have been working in retail did work overtime all the time.

"The numbers suggest it."

The nrs suggest very little about overtime. 100 hours less standard work time due to vacations, 100 less due to shorter workweek, 100 less due to fewer people having two jobs... who knows in detail. It says even less about being "offered" overtime, because Americans might just take it more often for several reasons (debt, job security....).

	11-01-2002 23:53									#285
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quote: Originally posted by Roland Good advice. Just a year ago or so, we had an almost american style tort judgment here on that very issue...

I'm glad you understand.

Don't ever put protein powder in a shaker bottle with a carbonated beverage. Unless you want a projectile weapon on your hands!

Actually some of our champagne bottles have warning labels on them to aim them away from people when opening. Do they have those in Eurocomland?

	12-01-2002 01:04									#286
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Dan,
Well I got my computer back today and they put in a new motherboard. Let’s hope the problem is fixed now.

Teddy,
” Actually some of our champagne bottles have warning labels on them to aim them away from people when opening. Do they have those in Eurocomland?”

No, we have people who know how to open a bottle of champagne.

	12-01-2002 02:45									#287
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Roland: we're talking at cross-purposes. I guess that mainly we agree. But I'm approaching it more from the businesses' perspective rather than the employee perspective--why would a 2,000 hour year be required from a business perspective?

Btw, a 2,000 hour year is absolutely nuthin'. I could do 2,000 billable hours in my sleep. Hey, wait a second...

Colon: let me know how it works for you.

Re KM, I was very lucky to get out when I did. A couple of days ago, I could have been out at $5.05. Yesterday, I got out at $4.13. Today, I would have had to accept $3.30.

I paid $5.50/share, so it's not an excruciating loss, if a little painful. I'll summarize the overall p/l for last year sometime soon.

	12-01-2002 02:55									#288
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What has been going on with KM lately? I though the company had managed a successful turnaround and now there are rumours the company is flirting with bankruptcy.

	12-01-2002 03:25									#289
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Regarding my qualms with inflation in US, Baum expresses my thoughts neatly in her column.

	14-01-2002 14:15									#290
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"But I'm approaching it more from the businesses' perspective rather than the employee perspective--why would a 2,000 hour year be required from a business perspective?"

Demand-side economics, huh ?

Essentially it boils down to the leisure-income preference of workers. But that's only one side - I wonder what shapes that preference.

	16-01-2002 23:06									#291
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Colon: I don't think Baum's column was very good. The basis for the argument is weak wrt CPI (why are we all-of-the-sudden talking about core CPI so much? Just because it went up last month? Just because we did last year?).

Anyway, it looks to me like last month was a blip, as I said was a possibility...

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pa...gid=IXLYK5HZ8CC

"I wonder what shapes that preference."

Good question. I wonder too.

Last edited by DanS on 16-01-2002 at 23:31

	17-01-2002 00:10									#292
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Actually Dan, core has always been an issue, just not in the mainstream media. The point is that different forces are driving core CPI than overall CPI and despite the US economy having been in a recession for quite some time those forces haven’t abated yet. Again, if the economy remains in the dolldrums it probably won’t be so much of a problem wrt inflation but if the economy recovers strongly there could very well be one. (otherwise there’ll be the problem of a non-fulfilled recovery priced in the markets)

”Anyway, it looks to me like last month was a blip, as I said was a possibility...”

Month on month data are always volatile, y-y data seem pretty consistent OTOH.

	17-01-2002 00:57									#293
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Well, I guess I can't fathom why somebody would be concerned with 2.6% or 2.7% 12-month rate core CPI. In fact, I might be more worried if it were much lower. Inflation, for lack of a better term, is good. It is necessary.

But go ahead and worry if you want to! I don't think you'll find any solace in Greenspan's remarks. In his recent economic overview speech, he mentioned inflation only 2 times, one of which was part of the clause "low-inflation environment" and the other "to the continued subdued pace of underlying inflation."

Last edited by DanS on 17-01-2002 at 01:10

	17-01-2002 01:31									#294
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”Again, if the economy remains in the dolldrums it probably won’t be so much of a problem wrt inflation but if the economy recovers strongly there could very well be one.”

When I said this I was implying the risk of a much higher level of inflation if recovery is as good as the stock market believes it will be.

And since when do I bother about Greenspan’s speeches?

	17-01-2002 02:04									#295
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"And since when do I bother about Greenspan’s speeches?"

When you decided to try your hand at predicting what/when the Fed would see fit that it needs to do?

"When I said this I was implying the risk of a much higher level of inflation if recovery is as good as the stock market believes it will be."

Nuts!

	17-01-2002 13:58									#296
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"Inflation, for lack of a better term, is good. It is necessary."

BLOODY AMERICOM! ALANIST! STATIST! You... you.... Repubicrat!
Inflation is bad. Praise the ECB. Inflation is bad. All hail the ECB. Ehm...

"Nuts!"

Why ? You have service sector inflation, rising labour costs, maybe a weaker dollar, and when the pricing power returns that stock prices are discounting in their funny earnings estimates - voila, inflation.

	17-01-2002 21:24									#297
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This is a funny discussion and I don't really know where to go with it. You bloody Eurocoms must have a Fear of Inflation gene that hasn't been discovered yet by the gene mapping projects. Comparing 2001's core CPI to the topline CPI number since 1966 that you referenced earlier in this thread, there are only 5 years with similar or smaller numbers.

You can't argue against what Colon says (Nuts!), but it only paints--let's say--1/8 of the picture. Yes, there is a risk of much higher inflation, but his arguments don't give you a feel for the magnitude of that risk. Further, he says nothing about either one-shot or cumulative mitigating factors. Lastly, even if the worst case scenarios were to come to pass, it would most likely come well within the bounds of even last cycle's modest CPI numbers--a cycle, I might add, that brought kudos to Greenspam for his management.

Everybody keeps hounding Greenspam for printing money, but look at the numbers and you can see that he has been an effective inflation hawk. Securities prices may have gotten a little out of hand, but we had ~10 years of uninterrupted growth, for heaven's sake!

Roland: Unemployment should be a mitigating factor against service sector inflation both on the demand side and supply side.

	17-01-2002 21:56									#298
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"You bloody Eurocoms must have a Fear of Inflation gene that hasn't been discovered yet by the gene mapping projects."

You Americoms are brainwashed by the Wall street consensus that easy money (and a little inflation) is good. What utter balderdash. Abandon your statist leanings!

"Comparing 2001's core CPI to the topline CPI number since 1966 that you referenced earlier in this thread, there are only 5 years with similar or smaller numbers."

Add 0.5-1 % or so for changes in methods.

"Everybody keeps hounding Greenspam for printing money"

Who ? In the US, most people think it's a free lunch.

"but look at the numbers and you can see that he has been an effective inflation hawk."

You also forgot real estate inflation. It's pretty much the same as Japan in the 80s. High monetary growth, Low CPI, and rampant asset price inflation.

"Unemployment should be a mitigating factor against service sector inflation both on the demand side and supply side."

Well we're at 5.8 %, and we'll see how much it mitigates. Problem is that most pressure seems to come from special sectors (health care etc), and I wouldn't want to shift an unemployed computer nerd to perform brain surgery.

	18-01-2002 01:19									#299
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Dan,
” When you decided to try your hand at predicting what/when the Fed would see fit that it needs to do?”

Agreed what he says is important because he’s in charge of monetary policy but only for that reason and not because his forecasts about the economy are of such tremendous quality. (quite the opposite)

Re magnitude of inflation, considering that services excluding energy services has climbed to 4.0% y-y and median CPI to 3.8% y-y, I’m thinking of an overall CPI of 4-5% and higher in case of a strong and sustained recovery.
Of course there’s the possibility of unexpected events, but I didn’t mention this because I consider that to be self-evident and because there’s no reason to assume they’ll be benign rather than malign.

As it comes to wages pressure, I haven’t seen its growth slow down much despite the increasing unemployment but I’m honestly interested in hearing a good explanation for that.

Last edited by Colon on 18-01-2002 at 02:16

	18-01-2002 04:43									#300
	wage pressures Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Believe me, wage increases have pretty much halted during the 4th quarter and do not appear to going up in the 1st quarter. On the other hand, there is still plenty of PRESSURE to ask for higher wages. Business just see no pressure to grant them.