17-12-2001 03:35									#241
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Thanks for the info Dan. Maybe you could also tell me how you regard their technology?

And they're not acquiring Barco but Barconet, the communications division that was spun off.

	17-12-2001 03:40									#242
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And BTW...
[Tet-style]Yanquis, I'm still holding for a reaction on core CPI [/Tet-style]

	17-12-2001 11:08									#243
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Well Unruhestifter, my reaction is that, "what else is new?"

Core CPI is always going up.

In 1985 I could buy a whole plate of Wurst for 50 cents. Now that same plate costs $3.00!!!

	17-12-2001 13:55									#244
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker In 1985 I could buy a whole plate of Wurst for 50 cents. Now that same plate costs $3.00!!!

a) food is excluded from the core CPI
b) "Wursti con Krauti" (from an italian restaurant menu in an area suffering from furor teutonicus)

	19-12-2001 10:22									#245
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Wrt the CPI, does anybody have a 20-year chart for the index, taking into account the changes that were made to scoring? Generally speaking, .2-.3% is normal. Nothing at all to worry about. I'm guessing the .4% is an outlyer. Let's see what happens next month.

Wrt the technology for these digital cable boxes, the technology is starting to become standard fare. They aren't much different than satellite boxes (plus a network interface), for instance, and there are a couple dozen companies working on those worldwide. I saw a DirecTV sat box for $100 the other day at Best Buy. DVD players and even some game consoles also use many of the same components and they are selling for about the same price.

Anyway, since there is a transmit as well as a receive on these boxes, for simplicity's sake, a cable company probably will select a single box for its system. If SFA is building the boxes for the system, it will continue to build the boxes for the system.

	19-12-2001 15:20									#246
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"I'm guessing the .4% is an outlyer."

Not really. There is rampant inflation esp in housing and healthcare, and deflation in stuff like commodities. But you know, when your head is on fire and your feet are frozen, you've got the right temperature on average...

I prefer the cleveland median CPI over the core CPI as a trend spotter, btw...

For long term view, though no graph:

http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/econ...c/hist1913.html

	19-12-2001 20:29									#247
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"I prefer the cleveland median CPI over the core CPI as a trend spotter, btw..."

Why do you prefer it? Do you think it more accurately reflects the broadest base of inflation?

Btw, I don't see how CPI is a problem. November's numbers, seasonally adjusted, versus a year ago come in at under 2%. November core, seasonally adjusted, versus a year ago comes in at about 2.8%.

edit again: the more I look at this, the less I'm concerned about it. Compare for 2001 (the average index of which will be 177.2, plug it into the Minneapolis Fed chart and you get 2.9% CPI, rather than the 3.4% assumed), with other cycles.

Last edited by DanS on 19-12-2001 at 21:01

	19-12-2001 21:55									#248
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Dan,
Last month’s outcome wasn’t really that exceptional if you look at Y-Y data, which shows an upwards trend. It’s not the present level that could be a cause of concern, it’s the future level. Wages are still outpacing productivity growth and money supply is ripping so what will it be like when that forecasted strong upturn arrives? The fed could be hitting the brakes sooner and heavier than they’d liked to.

And BTW, that was some piece of sneaky editing you did last Sunday.

	19-12-2001 23:07									#249
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Why, what did I edit out?

"It’s not the present level that could be a cause of concern, it’s the future level."

How could the negative be proven looking forward? You could make a case that this is an indication that core inflation (CPI) will be at least 4.4% next year (.37% x 12), and I have no way to say it won't be the case.

Looking back at the recession of 1990/1, even 4.4% CPI wouldn't be so bad. It would be a very successful management of the downturn.

"Wages are still outpacing productivity growth and money supply is ripping so what will it be like when that forecasted strong upturn arrives?"

Tough to say. One thing's for sure. Profits don't look good.

	20-12-2001 03:11									#250
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Well, I thought you changed “acquiring Barco” to acquiring “part of Barco after my post but maybe I had misread that.

I’m not saying that inflation running amok during the next upturn is a certainty but I do find there’s an upward risk considering money supply and wages. Do you disagree?

I’m not sure whether you can make a comparison with the inflation rate during the recession of ‘91, as inflation was higher throughout the industrialised world. US was in the middle range back then while it’s currently in the upper.

	20-12-2001 05:56									#251
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"Do you disagree?"

Well, when do you think this upturn is going to happen? You seem more sanguine than a lot of people...

Re the comparisons in business cycles, I think they are instructive.

	23-12-2001 02:41									#252
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The core inflation trend is interesting if you assume that the forecast of a strong recovery at the middle next of year is correct. If that happens I suspect there will be a high and accelerating inflation rate and the Fed may then be slamming the brakes if it wants to keep a lid on it. (of course it may not want to – but I don’t think that would do much good to US’ financial credibility) If that forecast is wrong I expect a reluctant resumption of growth and sluggish growth for years.

I agree comparing business cycles is instructive, but I don’t think you can just transplant the 4.4% figure because the international economic environment was different back then. Inflation standards are higher now.

	23-12-2001 05:28									#253
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SPAM!

Hey, I just helped increase the GNP thanks to increase in demand in bandwidth and that stimulate investment in IT (and ISP charging money ).

	05-01-2002 04:43									#254
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Hmm... Looks like posts from the last couple of days were hosed. Bummer.

Anyway, I have been following HAL for the last couple of days as it goes through a slew of problems related to asbestos. What do you guys think? The premier American oil services company only worth $4 billion?

	07-01-2002 13:10									#255
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HAL - Cheney's little comp ? Our RHI got trashed because of that asbestos lawsuits crap. Sheesh, never buy US companies...

Btw, what happened to your KMart ? Didn't you say something about a strong balance sheet a while ago ?

	07-01-2002 20:23									#256
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quote: Originally posted by Roland Sheesh, never buy US companies...

They do have their risks and rewards.

quote: Btw, what happened to your KMart ? Didn't you say something about a strong balance sheet a while ago ?

Their balance sheet has been deteriorating for a while. I expected some deterioration as they turned their business around, but things haven't been going my way since the ratings agency downgrades a couple of months ago.

I'll probably get out of the stock. Even though I don't think the investment was a mistake, things just didn't work out.

	07-01-2002 20:36									#257
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"They do have their risks and rewards."

Indeed. And then there's tort law.

"I'll probably get out of the stock. Even though I don't think the investment was a mistake, things just didn't work out."

Hey it rallied on the bankruptcy talk. This market is nuttier than... than... it was in March 2000 (total lack of adequate comparisons ).

	07-01-2002 20:48									#258
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Roland, your attention is needed in this thread to answer a few questions regarding international law.

I now return you to your regularly scheduled thread.

	07-01-2002 22:06									#259
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"And then there's tort law."

Well, I guess I agree with the law. It is true that it sometimes goes to excess with punitive damages.

"Hey it rallied on the bankruptcy talk."

I guess the saying is true... No publicity is bad publicity.

edit: also, what are you guys doing over there? Italian foreign minister resigns over the successful introduction of the Euro? Trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

Last edited by DanS on 07-01-2002 at 22:56

	08-01-2002 13:50									#261
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Ted, what about the ****er smiley ?

Dan:

"Well, I guess I agree with the law."

Bloody Americom.

"Italian foreign minister resigns over the successful introduction of the Euro?"

Has been brewing for a while. Bossi is eurosceptic, Berlusconi is clueless, yet both want to conduct foreign policy. As Ruggiero is a political heavyweight, he didn't want to be bossed around, and Bossi saying something like "**** the euro" and Berlusconi saying the minister is just his lackey, that was just the last straw...

As we say: An italian minister resigning is about as interesting as a rusty bike breaking down in Beijing...

Edit:

As we were talking about fake recoveries from Al's rampjob and inventory effects a while ago:

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdat...on.html#anchor0

Last edited by Roland on 08-01-2002 at 14:25

	08-01-2002 22:37									#262
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"Bloody Americom."

Well, if you knowingly sell or sold stuff that is inherently very bad for peoples' health, then don't cry when you're sued. You had it coming to you! Everyone tries to get out of paying one way or another...

"As we say: An italian minister resigning is about as interesting as a rusty bike breaking down in Beijing..."

Precisely. I guess it's about as interesting as someone getting criticized by a French minister.

The folquays and mores of European political theater haven't been set yet, but it is funny to watch, and more than a little bizarre to my eyes. Berlusconi should tell the French to stuff it, just as the Austrians should (and did?) tell the rest of Europe to stuff it when the government was formed. What a tempest in a teacup!

Interesting article, especially the recession comparison numbers. I'll take a closer look later.

	08-01-2002 22:46									#263
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"The folquays and mores of European political theater haven't been set yet, but it is funny to watch, and more than a little bizarre to my eyes."

What I found more bizarre was the repetition of the US election fiasco in Zambia.

"Berlusconi should tell the French to stuff it"

They had something to say as well ? Talkative bunch, huh ?

	08-01-2002 22:59									#264
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"Talkative bunch, huh ?"

Apparently, the French Finance minister "demanded clarification" of Italy's position on Europe. To which I thought to myself "WTF?" The Euro is already done (total victory), so why is the Finance minister talking about it at all? Further, why piss in the punch bowl at the party? Lastly, why on Earth is it any of France's business? Do they "demand clarification" from Denmark, Ireland, or the UK anytime they feel like it?

Almost like everyone's accusing each other of total success.

"Roland, you idiot! That was done so well, I'm disgusted with you! You need to explain yourself at once! I'm losing confidence in you because the policies were well-constructed and executed to everyone's satisfaction!"

"What I found more bizarre was the repetition of the US election fiasco in Zambia."

Apparently, there's nothing to stop lightning from striking the same place twice...

	09-01-2002 13:12									#265
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"Apparently, the French Finance minister "demanded clarification" of Italy's position on Europe."
"Lastly, why on Earth is it any of France's business?"

Well that's not so surprising. That stuff is more and more a matter of european internal politics rather than international relations, so that is like the dem Senator from California demanding that the rep Senator from Texas clarifies his position on alien vivisection.

In the same vein complaints about the shitheads in our government are legitimate. What drove me mad about the "sanctions" against Austria was that the EU is the justification for making it a political issue, and then they tried to deal with it outside the EU framework with inappropriate means.

"Almost like everyone's accusing each other of total success."

Did you never feel the emptiness after victory ?

	09-01-2002 19:39									#266
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Dan, you know a little about videocards do you? A PC breaks down suddenly two times, the monitor displays no signal input and the computer fails to boot afterwards. The first time the problem was fixed by replacing the wire between the monitor and the computer, the second time by updating the video drivers. What does that mean if the computer breaks down a third time, in the same fashion? Is there some sort of conflict? (this affects you too, as a post to you was being written at the time of the breakdown )

Anyway, you asked for productivity data and barring any further server hiccups and crashing computers you finally get to see them.

You can compare productivity data in chapter 2 of the competitiveness report 2001 (pdf file) by the European Commission. Allow me to note how investment growth correlates with productivity growth and also that Japan achieved superb productivity growth before the bubble burst. It wasn't even all that bad in the 90's either, but that didn't seem to ease the crisis. (it might even have made it worse by spurring deflation)

Here are also GDP/capita growth figures of the EU and the US. (from the EC and the US Department of Commerce)

1961-70
EU: 4.4%
US: 2.9%

1971-80
EU: 2.8%
US: 2.1%

1981-90
EU: 2.1%
US: 2.2%

1991-2000
EU: 2.0%
US: 2.1%

projected 2001-10
EU: 2.7%
US: 2.2%

How was vacation Roland?

Last edited by Colon on 09-01-2002 at 19:49

	09-01-2002 20:18									#267
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"How was vacation Roland?"

1/3rd: Curing out that psky cold
1/3rd: Catching up sleep
1/3rd: not getting enough sleep by going out too much

So, pretty good.

How's uni/work going ?

And btw, where's Sten ? Did he trash any of your mails recently ?

	09-01-2002 20:44									#268
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Roland: Oh, OK, I guess I was viewing the states more as entities making up a federation. So for instance, the prime minister would be like a state governor. Governors hardly ever criticize one another because of a generally perceived boundary of interests. In fact, I'm trying to think of a prominent disagreement right now, but just can't...

But now that you mention it, there are interests conflicting (normally handled at the federal level in the US) that might be important to recognize in order to understand what's going on. For instance, Italy might be positioning itself for a fair share of the bureaucracy infrastructure (pork).

But I can't believe that you're now saying that Austria was rightly criticized. Most in the US expressed concern, but thought it was none of our business, really (unless it became so by the policies carried out). Overall, I think that the criticism was overblown, bordering on the ridiculous. Y'all were treated shabbily.

	09-01-2002 20:50									#269
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"Governors hardly ever criticize one another because of a generally perceived boundary of interests."

True... but imagine the lieutenant governor representing his state in the senate - that's the actual link.

"For instance, Italy might be positioning itself for a fair share of the bureaucracy infrastructure (pork)."

I don't think pork is playing a big role in this... esp as the EU budget is 1 % of GDP, and 5 % of the budget is admin cost...

"But I can't believe that you're now saying that Austria was rightly criticized."

The government. Not Austria. Our government. Every one's welcome to piss in their face as far as I'm concerned.... overblown ? Sure. But that's politics.

	09-01-2002 22:48									#270
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Colon: God, what a bunch of hand-wringing! The report writer seems like he was about to put an end to his miserable existence over the differences in per capita GDP!

I'm much more sanguine for Europe on a per-capita GDP basis. Europe won't like it at all, but there will be probably be a marked upward shift in labor utilization. The US has been undergoing this over the last ~ 20 years and it truly sucks in many ways. See Denmark, Austria, Sweden, Netherlands for countries that seem to have already made a switch to higher labor utilization. Once the big boys start this path to > 75%, there will be a ton of complaining.

More to come...