21-04-2002 23:09									#1
	French Elections : Will Le Pen make it to the second round? Support Apolyton

Currently, Le Pen has more votes than Jospin. When will the official results be announced?

	21-04-2002 23:13									#2
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Chirac vs. Le Pen? That'd be... interesting.

President Le Pen, though unlikely, would be very interesting.

	21-04-2002 23:14									#3
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Stupid democratic systems. Leaders should be decided by a fist-fight tournament.

	21-04-2002 23:18									#4
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Babelfish translation of :
http://elections.lemonde.fr/preside...,907895,00.html

I couldnt find updated stories on the English news sites.

quote: Jacques Chirac at the head According to a Sofres-Bull estimate for TF1, the World and RTL, Jacques Chirac would arrive at the head with 19,8 % of the voices. Jean-Marie the PEN would follow, with 17,4% of the voices then Lionel Jospin with 16%. In addition, according to several institutes of surveys, the rate of abstention from the first tower of presidential should reach or to exceed the 28%, is an absolute record for a first turn of the election queen of Ve République. The World | 21.04.02 The first estimates of the result of the first turn of the presidential election created the surprise. According to a Sofres-Bull estimate for TF1, the World and RTL, Jacques Chirac would arrive at the head with 19,8 % of the voices. Jean-Marie the PEN would follow, with 17,4% of the voices then Lionel Jospin with 16%. As for the estimates of CSA, Jacques Chirac always arrives at the head with 20% of the voices, followed by Jean-Marie the PEN to 18%, then by Lionel Jospin with 16% of the voices. All the three joined their HQ of countryside. Jean-Marie the PEN ensured, at the end of the day at her HQ of countryside which it was "within sight of the surveys, rather largely, for the moment, in front of Lionel Jospin" . Mr. the PEN added in front of the journalists: "I am always wary of the surveys, but for the moment, the forecasts seem to me favorable . (...) Ca inspires to me that work, the perseverance and the assistance of God end up triumphing over all the obstacles ". Lionel Jospin arrived around 19 hours at its Parisian HQ of countryside. On the spot, the faces were tended, certain militants fearing even that their candidate does not reach the second turn because of a high score of the president of the national Face. RATE Of ABSTENTION RECORD The rate of abstention for the unit from the day to the first tower of presidential should reach or exceed the 28%, that is to say an absolute record for a first turn of the election queen of the O C République, according to estimates' of the institutes of survey. The estimate of the Sofres institute for TF1, RTL, the World gives a rate of abstention from 28 % of the registered voters. The Ipsos institute for Vizzavi, France 2, the Barber, Europe 1, the Point, gives a figure of 28,5 %, slightly lower than that of CSA for France Information, France 3, Paris-Match, Orange (28,9 %). the abstention would be thus higher of more than six points than that recorded at the time of presidential of 1995 (21,6 %). The strongest rate of abstention from a first turn had been reached in 1969, with 22,4 % of the registered voters. The official figures of the ministry for the interior also indicated a less mobilization of the French than in 1995: 58,55 % of the voters had voted at 17 hours, against 64,02 % in 1995 per same hour, that is to say a fall of 5,47 points. With AFP and Reuters

	21-04-2002 23:30									#5
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And in normal English :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/wo...000/1942612.stm

quote: Shock 'success' for French far right Exit polls, just released at the close of voting in the French presidential election suggest that far-right leader Jean Marie Le Pen is through to the second round. If confirmed, he will face the incumbent President, Jacques Chirac, on 5 May. It had been widely expected that French Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, would be Mr Chirac's rival in round two, but the exit polls suggest he has been eliminated. The BBC's James Coomarasamy in Paris says that if the polls are confirmed, this would be the biggest upset in French electoral history. The last polls before the election put Mr Le Pen, leader of the National Front, on 13% or 14%, compared with 18% for Mr Jospin.

	21-04-2002 23:44									#6
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Very interesting.
I see many of my predictions come to life.
It's disturbing , but sort of guessed such a thing would happen.

	21-04-2002 23:49									#7
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Yes, it is absolutely worrying how a right-winger can gain so much popularity in a country that used to be consdered progressive. In the EU2 OT, an Israeli quoted some other Israeli () who said something like "The French are fascists with the cover of being socialist" or something like that. I think that might make sense in some way, since that society is pretty tight when it comes to immigrants though has a pretty progressie government, or so it seems (social democrats, greens, socialists).

I personally doubt he'll make it, but it's worrying enough he got so far. And then, look into other countries. Jörg Haider comes to mind, although he's not a part of the government himself. And then, there are other examples of parties just winning elections by mere populism, such as those of Berlusconi in Italy or Schill in Germany (so far only in Hamburg though). I don't say those guys are fascists, but they came to power by mere populism, that's a fact.

This must be in some conneciton with recent events. People want to be protected, so they go for those that make the impression of being strongest etc. Do you think it works like this?

	22-04-2002 00:00									#8
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I believe that in the next election campaign, or at the one after it, Le Pen or his successor will win.

	22-04-2002 00:05									#9
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Le Pen will make it. Chirac is likely to win the second round though.

The Neo-Trotskyists did pretty well too. Pretty amazing.

	22-04-2002 00:06									#10
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I've found this in the media, too.

Apparently the French are (were) used to use the first round of the presidential elections as a means of protest, because it hasn't had much influcence in the past, anyway. You can see this protest behaviour by the fact that no candidate had substantially more than 20% of votes, so I would guess there are at least five or six with more than 10 %. The second round was considered as the real one. True ... until today.

Maybe the "left" votes were splitted on too many candidates? They had a record number of candidates, and - I think - many of them are alternatives more to Jospin than Chirac.

So I would guess the 17% of Le Pen are his real supporters, the rest will have to live with voting for Chirac. I think this was the usual nationwide percentage of Le Pen supporters in previous elections. I don't worry about this more than any other election where the Front National gets 17% - apart from the fact that this are roughly 21 % too much.

I think it's mostly a result of the inability of the French left to cooperate - which isn't really new either. They lost the last presidential elections about the same way.
Vive la Trance!

	22-04-2002 00:07									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Saint Marcus Le Pen came in second. Chirac is likely to win the second round though.

Pretty likely, but that's this time. What about next time?

I'm convinced there need to be steps undertaken to make people more interested in politics. They're only listening to bastards anymore, to those that knw how to impress them most. Let's hope he'll get so crushed in the secodn round that his party will lose some popularity in it. But hopeing that can't be all.

What can we do? _

	22-04-2002 00:12									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Ecthelion What can we do? _

Stop the mass Muslim/Arab immigration to France. Eventually this will lead to a far right president and the situation will explode(not necesseraly in this order).

	22-04-2002 00:15									#13
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That would mean right-wingers will kill themselves eventually cause they stop immigration

And then, why would a foreigner vote for someone who advertises kicking the same foreigner out?

	22-04-2002 00:19									#14
	Re: French Elections : Will Le Pen make it to the second round? Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

sh!t

Espece d'ordure.

I thought Le pen was down and out...

What can we do, what can we do...?

	22-04-2002 00:21									#15
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We need to make piece first before we crush him altogether.

	22-04-2002 00:23									#16
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BTW I want to be correct and not one sided.

You know I talked about the descecration of jewish cemetaries in Europe but that it did not happen in Greece?

Well... it happened. Some people sprayed the word "Palestinians" in red paint in a site which is dedicated to victimes of the Holocaust (the mainly the Greek Jews of Thessaloniki).

In other news...

In Norway, jewish pupils had to change schools because the norwegians were telling them things...

Now IF what I just said is used IN ANY WAY to justify present Israeli policy in the occupied Palestine, I'll not say anything else again.

I'm all for spotting problems, identifying them and solving them BUT NOT for using them for "propaganda"... ok?

Cheers

	22-04-2002 00:26									#17
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That's what any educated and enlightened person is for, paiktis.

Some people are only educated and therefore get paranoid at any statement that is not equal to their own.

	22-04-2002 00:28									#18
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This is disturbing- fortunately however Chirac will almost certainly win in the second round.

	22-04-2002 01:05									#19
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paiktis: your statement shows me something wrong with your thinking. I , when I come to the forums to debate, I come to exchange opinions , be objective , and if wrong, concur, and change my views. What you seem to say is : " hey, if I find some stuff to support your position rather than mine, I'll simply ignore it , so it wouldn't hurt my ideas, and my logic" .

That's .. not very open-minded , to put it mildly.

It seems that you're here to prove that your point is right, by all means, not to discuss, and learn something about the world for yourself.

	22-04-2002 01:09									#20
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Incidentally, here are the results:

CANDIDATE

Jacques Chirac - Rally for the Republic 20.47
Jean-Marie Le Pen - National Front 16.80
Lionel Jospin - Socialist Party 14.75
Jean Saint-Josse - Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Tradition 7.28
Francois Bayrou - Centrist 6.66
Arlette Laguiller - Workers' Struggle 5.85
Olivier Besancenot - Revolutionary Communist League 4.58
Noel Mamere - Greens 4.57
Jean-Pierre Chevenement - Republican Pole 4.53
Alain Madelin - Liberal Democracy 3.73
Robert Hue - Communist Party 3.08
Bruno Megret - National Republican Movement 2.36
Corinne Lepage - independent ecologist 1.79
Christiane Taubira - Radical Left Party 1.73
Christine Boutin - independent centrist 1.31
Daniel Gluckstein - Workers' Party 0.52
Registered electorate 9,382,669
Abstentions 24.61 percent

Can someone please tell me WTF is "Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions" party and WTF does it stand for and for WTF reasons did it get 7.28% of the vote?

	22-04-2002 01:14									#21
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Accoridng to the latest numbers Le Pen leads only by 0.5-1%. So Jospin still has a chance.

	22-04-2002 01:20									#22
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 BTW I want to be correct and not one sided. You know I talked about the descecration of jewish cemetaries in Europe but that it did not happen in Greece? Well... it happened. Some people sprayed the word "Palestinians" in red paint in a site which is dedicated to victimes of the Holocaust (the mainly the Greek Jews of Thessaloniki).

Yeah, I heard about that. Still, Greece hasn't had any violent physical attacks on Jews or Jewish institutions, the way some other countries have.

quote: In Norway, jewish pupils had to change schools because the norwegians were telling them things...

What were the things?

quote: Now IF what I just said is used IN ANY WAY to justify present Israeli policy in the occupied Palestine, I'll not say anything else again. I'm all for spotting problems, identifying them and solving them BUT NOT for using them for "propaganda"... ok? Cheers

Got it.

	22-04-2002 01:26									#23
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Countries elect people like Sharon, Bush, Berlusconi, Schröder, possibly Le Pen...

I'm actually starting to miss Ms Thatcher. She was(/is) totally evil but at least she was honest...

	22-04-2002 01:29									#24
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When you add up all the lefties, they beat Jospin. The big fun is that Arlette trounced the Communist Party, altogether, the Trots got three times the votes of the CP. Stalinism is dead.

Last edited by chegitz guevara on 22-04-2002 at 01:38

	22-04-2002 01:36									#25
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Jospin said that he'll leave politics after the second round.

	22-04-2002 01:37									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Eli Stop the mass Muslim/Arab immigration to France. Eventually this will lead to a far right president and the situation will explode(not necesseraly in this order).

Kowtowing to the right does not steal their thunder. It only makes them more powerful by enacting their policies when they aren't even in office. Then they can sayy, see, we have power, we've force the government to change, and they become even more attractive.

I think you are reading the wrong message into this elections. It isn't so much that Le Pen is attracting support, it is that Jospin lost his support. He was too much of a bootlicker to globalization, and he alientated his political base. If Jospin had acted like a real Socialist, if he had capitalized on the general strike that brought him to power, he might have kept his followers. Instead, he get's booted from office.

28%'s a lot of absenteeism in France.

	22-04-2002 01:38									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Kropotkin Countries elect people like Sharon, Bush, Berlusconi, Schröder, possibly Le Pen... I'm actually starting to miss Ms Thatcher. She was(/is) totally evil but at least she was honest...

It is quite thick to have Schröder in that list, but I'm not surprised by you any more.

sidenote: Schröder is the German chancellor and chief of a social democratic and green government.

	22-04-2002 01:39									#28
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The real big fun is that if you add all communist-sounding parties together and throw Greens in for good measure, they'd be the biggest. That'd have been interesting. Even more interesting would have been second round between Le Pen and Laquillor

Then again, we might consider it lucky that communist parties, when not in power, are best in fighting among themselves.

	22-04-2002 01:40									#29
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Kowtowing to the right does not steal their thunder. It only makes them more powerful by enacting their policies when they aren't even in office. Then they can sayy, see, we have power, we've force the government to change, and they become even more attractive. I think you are reading the wrong message into this elections. It isn't so much that Le Pen is attracting support, it is that Jospin lost his support. He was too much of a bootlicker to globalization, and he alientated his political base. If Jospin had acted like a real Socialist, if he had capitalized on the general strike that brought him to power, he might have kept his followers. Instead, he get's booted from office. 28%'s a lot of absenteeism in France.

I guess you're right.
I'm thinking in "best for the Jews" terms.

	22-04-2002 01:43									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Ecthelion It is quite thick to have Schröder in that list, but I'm not surprised by you any more. sidenote: Schröder is the German chancellor and chief of a social democratic and green government.

Schröder's party just got b*tch-slapped in Saxony-Anhalt. The Christian-Dems have recovered from their mess with Kohl, and the big surprise is the Party of Democraitc Socialism, the commies, are in second place.

Let that be a lesson to all wishy-washy social democrats. Kiss the asses of your class enemies and you will be removed from power when your party base abstains from voting.