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finbar
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Castiglion Fiorentino, Italy
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Havak
Nope, no cold feet. Nor is it related in any way to my total belief that we are a better side than any of the tri-nations visitors. I still think we are the best side that will be playing anywhere in the UK before the end of the year 2002. |
But you still think England should have a points start? The logic defeats me.
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My concern is solely that, despite your assertions, you have set aside the sensible way margins have been set thus far simply because England are involved  One might even suggest it is a prime case of the SH changing the laws as they go along.  |
  As I said, I've always calculated the margins the same way - recent form, team make up, and where the game is played. History is what it is - history. Particularly when it's - in the England -v- ABs case - a minimum of 3 years old.
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Check the stats – no way at all is this a straight win situation. England warrant a substantial start. You can’t ignore history at the drop of a hat. |
I can and will ignore stats - or history, if you like - when the most recent reference is 3 years old.
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Nonsense – retroactive history even. My spreads for example were all factored on a ten match history weighted by world rankings. |
Yours might have been, mine haven't been. A ten match history between England and the ABs? That takes us back to June 1, 1985. 
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Could it be that the ‘mighty’ All Blacks can’t overcome any kind of spread start? |
I think you'll beat them. I think I suggested giving them 7 1/2 points start.
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I remind you NZ strength in depth is closer to the English model than the Australian one – a third string NZ side is still a good team. Whether they are good enough… |
With those AB halves? I know you are positively salivating.
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LDiCesare
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La Ferté sous Jouarre France
Jan 2001
time: 05:23
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I agree a margin for England/ABs of 7 1/2 would make me switch sides and bet 10 on the ABs instead of England. So if noone wants to back NZ on straight win, such a margin would be OK for me. Of course, Havak wouldn't like it if Endland wins by 6 points.
I can't in any honesty put a margin for France match, however.
So here are my bets:
10 on France (straight win - or almost anything else reasonable), 10 on Ireland (7 1/2 margin), 10 on England (if straight win) or NZ (if 7 1/2 margin for England).
Finbar, don't be too sad. France's is very probably the only match I will not miss.
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LDiCesare
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La Ferté sous Jouarre France
Jan 2001
time: 05:23
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quote:
I'm not quite clear on this - who do you think should be favourites out of England and the ABs? |
I think England will win, but by a short margin, like 7 points at most. So any margin with head start for England or less than 7 for teh AB, I bet England. More than 7 points head start for NZ, I bet NZ.
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finbar
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Castiglion Fiorentino, Italy
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Havak
Careful grammar on my part Finbar. You should have picked it. |
Damn! I've been so offended by some of the grammar in the past that I now tend to speed read to avoid conniptions.
quote:
We are a better side than any of our tri-nations ‘visitors’. I didn’t claim we were automatically better than them beyond being our current ‘visitors’. Neither yourselves or the ABs have turned up with full strengths sides – and comparing England to your full strength sides – 3rd rank to 2nd and 1st places – we get the start?
These might be weakened sides but if they wear the shirt and use the name they represent the fuller side do they not? |
M-hm. Paddy has red hair, Paddy is Irish, therefore Irishmen have red hair. I vaguely recall the perils of that sort of deduction from my Year 8 school days.
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Crafty of Mitchell – he cannot lose. If we win he brought a development team and it means nothing. If we lose his second string has beaten almost our first choice side. Tricky devil! |
Well, yes. As I've said, it really makes some of these matches virtually trial games rather than bona fide Tests. Not necessarily a bad thing providing one of the teams is near full strength because it makes for interesting assessments.
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And I’ve always done it the other way. I have picked the winner on many occasions only to fall victim to the spread by one or two points after all.  |
Picking a winner can be easy. Picking a margin requires finesse.
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I see your point – but it’s not our fault – we extend an invite each and every year to them! |
Given the NZRFU's oft-proven superlative judgement, it's likely they've thought the steam-ship trip to England a bit too long.
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Did I, just possibly, get you to bite and be serious on the spreads? |
No, I was merely marvelling at English logic. (See immediately below)
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If so feel free to mention cricket as much as you like from now on. |
The kind of English logic that had Nassar Hussein win the toss on a Brisbane wicket - where a second-string Queensland XI had just belted an English Test-strength bowling attack for 600+ - and send the oppo in to bat. In fact, I assumed Nassar had rung you for advice.
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I can’t wear that – the AB hoodoo needs breaking in our players minds. A two score margin is over generous I think. Plus, most importantly, I want to win this time on my bet!!! |
I say again - if you cannot beat this second-string AB team by a try and a penalty, there is something seriously wrong.
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They look weak – but the Dawson-Wilko link is rusty – Dawson has only just forced back in the team. Plus Dawson takes suicidal options some times. Wilko is much more solid than Spencer though – less chance of ‘brain-fades’ for us. |
The only time I've seen Carlos Spencer play well against strong opposition is at fullback where he can do his thing with relative freedom. His NPC final was - well, quixotic. He seemed to panic. Wilkinson is a pro. Dawson might not be a first choice - he was on the Lions tour, wasn't he? - but he's opposing a player who is yet to compete at a level beyond club football.
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For the sake of thread harmony I will wear the outrageous 6.5 points start for the 'poor' All Blacks. |
So how much of your hard-earned are you willing to risk?
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finbar
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Castiglion Fiorentino, Italy
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
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Andydog 186
Caligastia 37
finbar 123.5
Havak 60
LDiCesares 111
Mickeyj 143.5
NeoStar 114
ravagon 94
redbull 80
Tamerlin 59
We have 3 matches on offer:
1. Wallabies -v- Ireland
I suggested 7 1/2 points start for the Irish. Any other thoughts?
2. England -v- All Blacks
We seem to have agreed - some of us (no names, no packdrill, Havak) reluctantly - on 6 1/2 points start for the All Blacks. So to back the ABs and win your bet, they have to finish within 6 points of England, draw or win the match. To back England and win your bet, England has to win by 7 points or more.
3. France -v- Springboks
Any thoughts on a margin? I would assume France - at home - would have to start favourites.
Edit. Neither LDiCesares nor Tamerlin think there should be a margin on the France -v- Boks match.
Last edited by finbar on 08-11-2002 at 04:22
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Havak
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Swing Low, Sweet Chariots.
Aug 1999
time: 05:23
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quote:
ahh..what do they know? Bloody traitors. |
To be fair they also said if you live with our forwards for twenty minutes they would make you favourites – unless it started to rain then.
It was one of the Walkabout bar events – Aussie theme pubs across the UK – next week the chain hosts three Wallaby greats for a Q&A in the same vein and the week after three Boks. Nice idea – anything that supports the game is good after all.
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I now tend to speed read to avoid conniptions. |
Conniptions – is that extremely (almost violent) emotional reactions? Doesn’t seem to fit for yourself at all. Sounds like my style.
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M-hm. Paddy has red hair, Paddy is Irish, therefore Irishmen have red hair. I vaguely recall the perils of that sort of deduction from my Year 8 school days. |
Look at it this way then – if the Government of the Republic says Paddy is Irish then he is Irish. The NZRFU and ARU have sanctioned these touring sides as official therefore…
Better logic for you?
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Not necessarily a bad thing providing one of the teams is near full strength because it makes for interesting assessments. |
Don’t remind me. I’ll be so much more comfortable discussing this is we get the win under our belt.
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Picking a winner can be easy. Picking a margin requires finesse |
Finesse? English ex-forward? Make you own conclusions.
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Given the NZRFU's oft-proven superlative judgement, it's likely they've thought the steam-ship trip to England a bit too long. |
I think what truly undermined their assertion that it was a long way to come was undermined a little by the fact the last two years they came up anyway and busted up the Celts. The clincher that they are avoiding us though was when we asked for the June tour to them this year and they gave it to Ireland instead.
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In fact, I assumed Nassar had rung you for advice. |
He might have well as
Nice to see the boys dig back in though. It will not last but it’s nice to see some spirit from us.
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I say again - if you cannot beat this second-string AB team by a try and a penalty, there is something seriously wrong. |
Well I look at it this way Finbar – we are clearly the stronger side on paper. I wonder what effect that might have on the boys? I am worried we will see a nervous performance. Show nerves to a Kiwi and he will take advantage. I think we will win, I trust we will win. But in any game there are two sides. Should we lose tomorrow I’ll give up most hope for RWC it has to be said.
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Dawson might not be a first choice - he was on the Lions tour, wasn't he? - but he's opposing a player who is yet to compete at a level beyond club football. |
Dawse suffered an injury set back after the Lions and then struggled for form. He has fought his way back in and he is vastly more experienced than his opposing number sure – but do watch him for the suicidal options. Has a penchant for tapping wherever he is on the field as well.
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So how much of your hard-earned are you willing to risk? |
I don’t have much to risk! Two more games in the series and I must have some left for Australia.
I’ll end the post with my stakes.
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He could probably sue you for that. In fact, given Americans' fondness for litigation ... |
What a nice idea you have given him for if the ABs lose.
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Only if I grow another finger or toe in the next week. |
Is that another reference to things the Americans are fond of?
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Fancy that. They've caught Nassar-Havak Syndrome. |
Well I might be known for redundantly stating the obvious but Nasser isn’t.
Your suggested margin for the Irish game is a little too narrow for me, but I am not fighting another losing battle here.
Okay.
10 on England
10 on France
10 on Ireland.
And a bank loan afterwards no doubt!
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finbar
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Castiglion Fiorentino, Italy
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
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For the sake of convenience, for the moment, I'll keep the bets broken down by matches and I'll update this post as the bets are placed.
Thus far, we have the following bets recorded. Can you please let me know if I have mis-represented you?
Wallabies -v- Ireland (7 1/2 points start for the Irish)
Havak 10 - Ireland
LDiCesares 10 - Ireland
finbar 20 - Wallabies
Tamerlin 10 - Wallabies
England -v- All Blacks (6 1/2 points start for the ABs)
Caligastia 20 - ABs
finbar 10 - England
Havak 10 - England
Tamerlin 10 - England
LDiCesares 10 - England
France -v- Springboks (No margin, a straight win/lose bet)
Havak 10 - France
LDiCesares 10 - France
Tamerlin 10 - France
finbar 20 - Springboks (Just to make sure of a pot of Civ Gold! )
Last edited by finbar on 08-11-2002 at 19:04
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finbar
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Castiglion Fiorentino, Italy
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Havak
next week the chain hosts three Wallaby greats for a Q&A in the same vein |
Who?
quote:
Conniptions – is that extremely (almost violent) emotional reactions? Doesn’t seem to fit for yourself at all. Sounds like my style. |
A conniption is a fit of rage or hysteria. Yep, that's you.
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Look at it this way then – if the Government of the Republic says Paddy is Irish then he is Irish. |
No he's not. Only in the opinion of the Government of the Republic.
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The NZRFU and ARU have sanctioned these touring sides as official therefore…
Better logic for you? |
No, it's based on the false premise mentioned above.
quote:
I think what truly undermined their assertion that it was a long way to come was undermined a little by the fact the last two years they came up anyway and busted up the Celts. The clincher that they are avoiding us though was when we asked for the June tour to them this year and they gave it to Ireland instead. |
Face it, the NZRFU takes incompetence to new heights. I suspect they went to the NH intending to play England, took the wrong exit from the motorway, ended up playing the Celts and were none the wiser.
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Nice to see the boys dig back in though. It will not last but it’s nice to see some spirit from us. |
Today they bowled the way they should have yesterday. Trouble is, they were starting 300+ plus runs behind. As it was, most of our blokes got themselves out today. Steve Waugh was the exception. And this afternoon, we dropped 3 catches - most of them tough-ish - and missed a stumping. Swings and roundabouts.
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Well I look at it this way Finbar – we are clearly the stronger side on paper. I wonder what effect that might have on the boys? I am worried we will see a nervous performance. Show nerves to a Kiwi and he will take advantage. I think we will win, I trust we will win. But in any game there are two sides. Should we lose tomorrow I’ll give up most hope for RWC it has to be said. |
Well, yes. Nerves? Apart from some early butterflies, there shouldn't be room or time for them. But I understand your crossed fingers, I would be the same way. OTOH, it's a big chance for your mob to put a win on the board against the ABs - regardless of the quality of the team - and take the confidence forward.
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Is that another reference to things the Americans are fond of? |
No, just that one of my abacus' strings broke, the beads went everywhere and I'm arithmetically rooted without it.
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Your suggested margin for the Irish game is a little too narrow for me, but I am not fighting another losing battle here. |
You think the Paddys should have a bigger start?
I've recorded your bets.
Last edited by finbar on 08-11-2002 at 15:48
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Havak
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Swing Low, Sweet Chariots.
Aug 1999
time: 05:23
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Tim Horan, Michael Lynagh and Rod Kafer. And the next week Joel Stransky, André Vos, Pieter Roussow and Naka Drotské.
Sadly it’s the bar in Shepherds bush.
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A conniption is a fit of rage or hysteria. Yep, that's you. |
Cheers.
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No he's not. Only in the opinion of the Government of the Republic. |
I’m intrigued as to who you think is better placed to decide in that case?
You also side-stepped the issue that the Unions have appointed these players to represent them.
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No, it's based on the false premise mentioned above. |
False premise?
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Face it, the NZRFU takes incompetence to new heights. I suspect they went to the NH intending to play England, took the wrong exit from the motorway, ended up playing the Celts and were none the wiser. |
It is rare to find a Union that makes ours look Professional (in any other sense than making money at least).
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And this afternoon, we dropped 3 catches - most of them tough-ish - and missed a stumping. Swings and roundabouts. |
I wasn’t for a second claiming we stood a chance. I’m well aware you remain the vastly superior side. I was juts pleased to see some guts shown by the Poms.
Bad bad news about Jones though – he was an exciting young prospect.
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OTOH, it's a big chance for your mob to put a win on the board against the ABs - regardless of the quality of the team - and take the confidence forward. |
 Absolutely Finbar.
You haven’t forced me to be serious so I feel happy to be so. I’ll be able to accept a loss if it’s the right kind. If this AB side comes up trumps and plays out of its socks then fair play to them. But if we choke and hand it to them through playing poorly I’ll be quite devastated. It is very much time to put up or shut up for the boys. And from your point of view a loss would add massive pressure on Jonno. Some pundits think Kay should replace him now well before RWC. I actually seriously disagree – but then you will have assumed that.
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No, just that one of my abacus' strings broke, the beads went everywhere and I'm arithmetically rooted without it. |
So language rather than arithmetic is your strength – and we let you work out the betting for us.
It figures.
I did think the Paddy’s might need a penalty above the converted try – but looking at the tight five more closely I think they are very competitive even without Keith – so your margin is fair enough.
I could be broke after this weekend. I just hope the right French side walks out for the game.
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LDiCesare
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La Ferté sous Jouarre France
Jan 2001
time: 05:23
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Choosing 6 1/2 for the England/ABs has been made in the obvious attempt to make it hard for me to decide who I'd back. I said I needed 7 to back the ABs so I'll bet 10 civ gold on England.
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finbar
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Castiglion Fiorentino, Italy
Jan 1970
time: 06:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Havak
Tim Horan, Michael Lynagh and Rod Kafer. |
That's an entertaining trio.
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Sadly it’s the bar in Shepherds bush. |
Roger Daltrey country, from memory.
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I’m intrigued as to who you think is better placed to decide in that case? |
As always - moi!
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You also side-stepped the issue that the Unions have appointed these players to represent them. |
No I didn't. Because the premise was false, everything that followed was as flawed by definition.
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I wasn’t for a second claiming we stood a chance. |
I know that. They did improve about 200% today but the damage was done yesterday.
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Bad bad news about Jones though – he was an exciting young prospect. |
Tragedy. He looked by far the most menacing quick. Genuine pace and did something with the ball. Caddick simply doesn't have the skill - or application, concentration, whatever - to bowl to a plan. To build pressure. That's McGrath's great asset. Caddick bowls two good balls then a boundary ball. Hoggard looked willing but, again, no plan, no pressure. He's young, maybe he'll pick it up, but Caddick never will. He has modelled himself so much on Richard Hadlee but he doesn't have 20% of the skills.
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You haven’t forced me to be serious so I feel happy to be so. I’ll be able to accept a loss if it’s the right kind. If this AB side comes up trumps and plays out of its socks then fair play to them. But if we choke and hand it to them through playing poorly I’ll be quite devastated. It is very much time to put up or shut up for the boys. |
I think you're quite right. Because there's going to be a sh*tload more pressure even in the pool matches of the WRC. This is their chance to jam one up the ABs. I'm honestly looking forward to this match more than I'm looking forward to the Irish game because it actually means more - even if one of the teams is second-string.
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And from your point of view a loss would add massive pressure on Jonno. Some pundits think Kay should replace him now well before RWC. I actually seriously disagree – but then you will have assumed that. |
Do bears do number twos in heavily timbered areas? I heard him asked whether the game meant anything in terms of the RWC. His answer: "Twelve months is a long time in sport". I hope Kay has at least an ounce of imagination.
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So language rather than arithmetic is your strength – and we let you work out the betting for us.
It figures. |
I haven't worn a shoe or sock since we started betting.
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I did think the Paddy’s might need a penalty above the converted try – but looking at the tight five more closely I think they are very competitive even without Keith – so your margin is fair enough. |
After the ugly shambles of a game in Argentina, I'll be happy just to see some real rugby played. I suspect we have just enough of our better players fit enough to beat them. I'm keen to see how Adam Freier handles starting as hooker and how Staniforth - a mile better rugby player than Wendell - stands up on the wing. And, indeed, how David Giffen handles his first real hitout. Matt Giteau, the babe-in-the-woods back-up halfback/5-8 - the one who hasn't yet played S12 - is on the bench and is bound to get a run which I also look forward to seeing.
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07-11-2002 15:41
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