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sirsnuggles
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Seattle
Jun 2003 time: 21:24
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We can easily reconcile the numbers from the studies of both Solo and Samson, and incorporate Xin Yu's observation about the denominator of 93 being odd, whereas 100 makes more sense. To quote Xin, “The denominator of 93 is a little odd. I would guess that gaps were divided by 100. By wrapping at 100 Alphabet obviously will get a larger chance than wrapping at 93.”
When I examine my rules.txt file, I notice that in addition to the 90 game techs and 3 User Defined Techs, 7 Extra Advances are also listed; bringing us to a sum total of 100. I think, if I understand Scouse Gits' programming comments properly (with my own inferences), the civ2 program should read the entire contents of @civilize from Advanced Flight all the way down to Extra Advance 7.
When Samson calculated his 7/93 for Alphabet, he obviously skipped the 7 Extra Advances. The ratio should have been 14:100 (I actually count 15:100). Using Samson’s original numbers and correlating them to Solo’s test percentages we find this:
Tech Samson Solo
Ceremonial Burial 1 1%
Alphabet 7 16%
Bronze Working 7 7%
Masonry 11 10%
Pottery 18 18%
Warrior Code 22 22%
Horseback Riding 27 26%
That everything correlates exactly except for Alphabet (As Solo pointed out).
Yet, if we adjust Samson’s ratios to include the 7 Extra Advances we find this:
Tech Samson Solo
Ceremonial Burial 1 1%
Bronze Working 7 7%
Masonry 11 10%
Alphabet 15 16%
Pottery 18 18%
Warrior Code 22 22%
Horseback Riding 27 26%
An exact correlation: as each item in Samson’s list increase, so do Solo’s percentages increase in his list.
The conclusion, Samson’s work is verified, reconciled with Solo's data compilation, and his ratio's are adjusted to their correct limits.
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solo
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Lowell, MA USA
Jan 2001 time: 05:24
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Sirsnuggles,
This sounds just right to me, since my percentages were based upon a larger sample than Samson's. Your explanation confirms his theory and the results of both tests. Nice work!
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samson
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quote: Originally posted by sirsnuggles
When Samson calculated his 7/93 for Alphabet, he obviously skipped the 7 Extra Advances.
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Not quite.
I tested hut outcomes under version 2.4.2 which does not include the 7 Extra Advances. 93 is the correct denominator for that version.
The 7 Extra Advances exist in the MGE version which, presumably, is what Solo used for his testing since his numbers correspond to a denominator of 100.
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samson
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2.42 is a patch, to the original Civ2 version. The original CD does not include the 7 extra advances, nor does CIC (version 2.62).
The point, good sir snuggles, is that the denominator is determined by the number of techs defined under @CIVILIZE. I should have checked to see if these differed by version when Solo and I first noticed our discrepancy.
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