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vondrack
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Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:24
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First: Tibi, you used Mfg. Goods instead of GNP. Using the GNP figure may (and probably will  ) yield a different result.
Second: why do we need to have gunpowder ASAP? I see no major difference between Mercs and Muskets (defending cities against Knights, Riders, or Ansars)... and that's the only benefit coming out of Gunpowder I can recall.
But what is more important: we will spend ~13-14 turns researching Astronomy. Then ~10-11 turns on Music Theory. Then ~10 turns on Navigation (Nav is crucial for a peaceful trigger of our GA... I would very much like to avoid using the cheap "Vox warrior sacrifice" trick). That is 30+ turns on different "upper branch" research goals. So, Voxes would have more or less time enough to go for a 40-turn research...
However... the argument that GoW will go for Inv as fast as possible (to get Leo's) is correct. And if we can trade for Invention reasonably (using Astro), then it might be even better to have Voxes shut their research down completely until the discovery of Invention, having them research only Gunpowder for us (while we would do PP & Demo, hopefully switching to democracy before triggering our GA with Magellan's Exp). With the HUGE beaker difference between Inv & Astro, we could ask GoW to balance the deal with Invention "resale" rights, allowing us to provide the tech to Voxes.
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vondrack
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Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:24
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I have been thinking about our future research a lot over the last couple of days and... I have to say that while I generally agree the Military Tradition branch is definitely the way to go in the long run, I am convinced we have to do two techs from the Edu branch BEFORE continuing the research in the military branch of the medieval techtree.
The first one is Music Theory - for obvious reasons.
The second one is Navigation - for reasons I am going to outline here:
1) our best shot at (planned) GA
We are the only team that is still in the main race that has not triggered its GA yet. That effectively means we are putting ourselves at a great disadvantage, offset only by that we have succeeded to avoid wasting our production in wars so far (but that's not going to apply for too long). GA, especially if properly planned, are HUGE.
At this very moment, we would have a raw production increase of almost 90 shields per turn (just count the shield-yeilding tiles we are working ATM). For 20 turns, we would be talking like 20*100=2000 shields! Without ANY planning-ahead at all! That's something we should not dismiss without considering it properly.
As for the GA timing... the best timing for our GA would be when we have something to spend the extra gold and shields on. From this point of view, the current and upcoming time (mid to late medieval) is just perfect. Missing libraries and universities, harbours, cathedrals and colossea, marketplaces and banks... there is so much to build in this period!
I know, we could always have Voxes sacrifice a warrior to our merc. But I would really, REALLY like to avoid (ab)using this workaround. In my eyes, it is a very cheesy trick, one that does not go well with a team wishing to win the game in a way gaining respect, perhaps even admiration. No other team lowered themselves to a staged UU victory. And I would feel ashamed if we were the only ones doing so.
As our mercs are unlikely to make it into a real fight (I do not believe we will send any of them over to Bob, as we will already have muskets in a few turns... besides, mercs are less impressive these day than 50 turns ago), we will need a commerical wonder to trigger our GA.
There are only two commercial wonders ahead of us (speaking reasonable timespan): Adam Smith's Trading Company and Magellan's Expedition. Of these two, ME is MUCH cheaper shield-wise. 400 shields against 600 shields. Plus, it grants a very useful bonus - an extra movement point for all ships.
Now, if you compare the cost of Magellan's Expedition (400 shields) to the extra shields we would get in our GA (AT LEAST 2000, but much more likely some 3000), that's some pretty good investment, is it not? All we'd have to do would be to make some planning, making sure we have all our cities in place and as close to pop 12 as possible.
I hope to find some time to look at this at the low level, finding out how many terrain and city improvements we'd need to efficiently use GA timed to the mid-term future (~30 turns from now?).
If the war is going fine, we will be able to massively improve our infrastructure, taking advantage of all the happiness related help we are getting from our allies for free. And if the war is NOT going fine, we will be able to turn the tides with masses of 3-, maybe even 2-turn knights flooding the battlefield...
Think of it some...
2) immense strategic value
Magellan's Expedition and the whole GA issue aside, Navigation is of an immense strategic value, especially if we were the only ones having it (or: if GS did not have it).
Even if we do not plan for invading Stormia across the Western Ocean, it is not to say we should not consider using the threat of such an invasion. Just imagine what a mess our fleet of ~8 caravels or galleons appearing within the striking distance of Stormia could cause (once we enter the war against GS "publicly"). GS is quite likely keeping their homeland only lightly defended, very well knowing there is nobody able to attack them across the sea.
Such an unexpected move might easily turn into THE breaking point in the Great Bobian War. Even just the theoretical threat of an overseas invasion would force GS to keep more troops at home, having fewer of them to deploy on Bob.
3) other considerations
I will grant you that Navigation is an optional tech. And a pretty costly one. But if we use it to trigger our GA, we will most likely be able to maintain 4-turn tech research for the full 20 turns of our GA without losing money. If you count the yet undiscovered mandatory techs, you will find out that if Voxes do Banking for us in the meantime (which I believe would be doable), we should be able to enter Industrial Era at the end of our GA or shortly afterwards - even if doing Military Tradition.
Now, throw in the free Vox tech - Nationalism, Steam Power, or Medicine. Nationalism would make us pretty much invincible, as riflemen easily stop almost any kind of cavalry based attack. And Steam Power and Medicine put us one tech closer to Scientific Method and the well known Hoover Dam gambit. I know this is a bit far-fetched, but it is not all that impossible to pull.
With the exception of Music Theory and Navigation, which should IMHO be the first techs researched after Gunpowder, I agree we should go for the lower branch of the medieval age techtree - leaving the upper branch to Voxes (with GS giving Banking up, it is just perfect, as Voxes will have both techs they will need from "friendly" sources - Printing Press from their own research, Education from us... and they will be able to happily go for whatever tech in the upper branch they might wish (first Banking, then Economy, or Democracy...).
So, my plan would be:
1) Music Theory - because of the Bach's
2) Navigation - because of the Magellan's and GA
3) Chemistry - inevitable
4) Metallurgy - because of cannons and to cancel the effect of The Great Wall
5) Military Tradition - because of cavalry
6) Magnetism - because of the naval power and to cancel the effect of The Great Lighthouse
7) Theory of Gravity - to leave medieval times
Let's start some serious debate here - we have a little bit over 10 turns to finalize our post-Music Theory research strategy.
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Sharpe
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Ontario
May 1999
time: 00:24
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Good summary Vondrack.
Unless I missed it you sorta forgot about Physics being needed for both Magnetism and Theory of Gravity.
I also think that to properly benefit from any GA (or just for good financial reasons) that we also need to research Banking ourselves sometime as we might need the extra income from Banks in some of our larger cities. It is important enough not to leave it to Vox.
Admittedly with their higher maintenance fees, the threshold for profitably building banks is much higher than it was for mktplaces. So we should determine which cities would benefit most from a bank and whether they can build it relatively quickly.
Last edited by Sharpe on 04-09-2003 at 01:45
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Kloreep
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of the pillow
Jun 2002
time: 00:24
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quote:
Originally posted by vondrack
No other team lowered themselves to a staged UU victory. |
On the other hand, all civs have been/are at war, and except RP, they all had/have their UUs.
quote:
Originally posted by vondrack
There are only two commercial wonders ahead of us (speaking reasonable timespan): Adam Smith's Trading Company and Magellan's Expedition. Of these two, ME is MUCH cheaper shield-wise. 400 shields against 600 shields. Plus, it grants a very useful bonus - an extra movement point for all ships. |
On the other hand, for those extra 200 shields, you get +1 gold for every city with a market, +1 gold for every city with a harbor, etc.
Just playing capitalist pig's advocate.
quote:
Originally posted by vondrack
I hope to find some time to look at this at the low level, finding out how many terrain and city improvements we'd need to efficiently use GA timed to the mid-term future (~30 turns from now?).
If the war is going fine, we will be able to massively improve our infrastructure, taking advantage of all the happiness related help we are getting from our allies for free. And if the war is NOT going fine, we will be able to turn the tides with masses of 3-, maybe even 2-turn knights flooding the battlefield... |
I think the war will be decided in 30 turns. Unless GS is on the way to utterly wiping out ND and GoW, of course, in which case we prepare to defend Legos. But GAs are always good regardless of war or peace.
quote:
Originally posted by vondrack
Magellan's Expedition and the whole GA issue aside, Navigation is of an immense strategic value, especially if we were the only ones having it (or: if GS did not have it).
Even if we do not plan for invading Stormia across the Western Ocean, it is not to say we should not consider using the threat of such an invasion. Just imagine what a mess our fleet of ~8 caravels or galleons appearing within the striking distance of Stormia could cause (once we enter the war against GS "publicly"). GS is quite likely keeping their homeland only lightly defended, very well knowing there is nobody able to attack them across the sea.
Such an unexpected move might easily turn into THE breaking point in the Great Bobian War. Even just the theoretical threat of an overseas invasion would force GS to keep more troops at home, having fewer of them to deploy on Bob. |
Completely agreed here.
Re: Vox techs, I would be fine with them doing Banking. Why? Because I am anti-university and anti-bank. We have better improvements and units to build.
Banks cost 160 shields + 1 gold a turn. Rushed, that's 640 gold. Even in a city devoting 22 gold a turn to savings, that's 64 turns to payoff. Even at upgrade rates which don't apply to buildings, that's a 32 turn payoff. Universities are even worse, with 40 more shields and an extra gold maintenance for a little culture.
I'm not saying Banks and Unis should never be built, but I would wait until all other improvements except Cols have been built; preferably until Factories and Hospitals are built. There are plenty of other improvements to be built in the meantime, and our army and navy need beefing up.
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Tiberius
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Europe
Jan 2000
time: 06:24
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How about building both ? 
Now seriously, both have immense value. ME has undoubtly a very high strategical value (we could hunt down any invaders with our fast ships) while AS would give us the much needed gold (for upgrades, financing allies, etc) gold.
So my plan would be to proceed aprox. like this (can anyone with a save available do the math please? if not, I'll do it at home):
Phase.1.
Prepare in the next few turns a city for wonder building (there are only 2 possible candidates: Jackson and Panama). They would prebuild a Palace while we would research Music Theory and Navigation, then it'd build Magellan's.
Phase.2.
During the Magellan's build, we would prepare the second city (best would be Karina probably) for a wonder build. We would research the lower branch of the techtree in the meantime.
Phase.3.
During our golden ages, Karina would start building a Palace, while due to our fast research we should be able to research Banking and Economics quite fast, finishing then Adam Smith.
I know I am a mad wonder-builder freak , and I would favour building any wonder (even the Great Library or the Oracle ), so let me know if this is totally crap or not
On a slightly more seriously note, I think we are capable building both wonders, without screwing too much our military building plans. The second wonder would be anyway far away in the future, 'cause 40 or 50 turns from now on is really a mistery.
Besides we are supposed to be builders and we are losing the wonder race, wich is a shame
Last edited by Tiberius on 04-09-2003 at 10:57
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vondrack
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Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:24
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Quite frankly, I am not all that convinced now we should continue with Navigation immediately (yes, I have changed my mind a bit). I gradually tend to consider Banking a better choice for the moment. Here is why:
1) Voxes are not close enough to finishing PP (at least 10 turns). They would not be able to start with the Banking research soon enough.
2) Their next research project will be a 40-turn one again. It would be much better to get the 1632-beaker Democracy for those 40 turns, than the 1248-beaker Banking.
3) GoW considers starting a Chemistry research in the near future. If we do Banking and Navigation, we should be able to get Chemistry through trade, which would be a good thing (we shouldn't research EVERYTHING ourselves, traded techs are much "cheaper").
4) Our GA trigger, which I suppose will be Magellan's, will not be needed for at least 20 turns (according to the preliminary analyses done for some of our core cities). Thus, the only real advantage of the Navigation for us at this moment would be the ability to sail safe in the ocean tiles. That's not enough, I believe.
5) On the other hand, Banking allows banks - and e.g. Legopolis could squeeze a Bank (and perhaps a Uni) in after it finishes the Bachs' (~8 turns) and before it starts another wonder.
But yes... it's high time to start discussing this! So, everybody, speak up! 
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vondrack
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Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:24
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OK, I got into a planning mood today...
I was crunching some numbers (nothing precise, just estimates, but rather educated, I believe) and here is what I have come up with:
Note: now=480AD
Navigation discovered in 500AD (2t from now)
Economy discovered in 570AD (9t from now)
Magellan's Expedition finished in 610AD (13t from now)
GA thus started in 610AD (13t from now)
Physics discovered in 630AD (15t from now, 2t into the GA)
Adam Smith's finished in 640AD (16t from now, 3t into the GA)
Theory of Gravity discovered in 670AD (19t from now, 6t into the GA)
Magnetism discovered in 710AD (23t from now, 10t into the GA)
Let's assume I'm off by ~1 turn (a small reserve never hurts). Means that on condition we receive Chemistry from GoW within 2-3 turns we'll be able to provide Voxes with Chemistry for free (20t NDA would be over by the time we'd need to give it to them). At the same time, it is obvious that Voxes will have to acquire Metallurgy on their own, as Metallurgy will still be under the 20-turn NDA by that time). Just to make it clear, why all this: we will need Voxes to acquire all mandatory medieval techs within ~24 turns from now, so that they get their free industrial tech immediately after we send them the last mandatory medieval one, not delaying our own research by more than a single turn.
To this end, we should approach Vox and find out how long they estimate their research of Democracy will take - and discuss a Metallurgy (GoW) for Democracy (Vox) trade to be arranged well in advance, so that when our plans become more or less obvious, it would be too late...
Another possibility would be to, after few turns pass and we get closer to trading Astronomy to GoW, offer GoW resale rights for Astronomy (to be traded to ND) in exchange for resale rights for Metallurgy (to be traded to Vox)...
Once we enter Industrial Era, we will have to adapt our research strategy to the free tech Voxes get. Our ultimate goal, I believe, should be Hoover Dam - whatever it takes, we should try very hard to build it, possibly before anyone else has a chance (btw, looking at the map, I believe that Legopolis is an obvious choice, unless we try something really unusual, like building it in Red Bricks, whose location noone knows).
If Voxes get Nationalism - cool, we upgrade our defenses, go for Steam Power and then Electricity, while Voxes do Medicine. We then do Scientific Method, build ToE... you know the trick.
If Voxes get Steam Power - cool, we do Electricity, and Medicine, and Scientific Method (and then as above), while Voxes work on Nationalism. Similarly for Medicine.
I know this is a bit far into the future. But if you start thinking about these plans, you will soon realize that we need to make our minds well in advance to properly time prebuilds and pre-arrange key tech trades.
Let's discuss this while there is time enough.
EDIT: ya'know... after giving it another thought, maybe building Hoover Dam in Red Bricks is not such a bad idea. Palace prebuild available (Palace costs 800 shields, the same as Hoover) - unlike in Legopolis, location completely secret... hmmm...
Last edited by vondrack on 17-01-2004 at 01:42
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Spiffor
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CPA - Evil Clone brigade
Nov 2001
time: 06:24
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Well, it seems we have lost our chances to get Hoover Dam before GS, according to what I read here.
Hence, we should think of our scientific strategy with another aim than Hoover.
I suggest we aim at having bombers ASAP, and let our weaker allies (Vox and hopefully ND) research communism, espionage, medicine and sanitation on their own. it will allow us to orientate our superior economy to these expansive techs, while the others look into cheaper techs (hence giving us an opportunity to actually have a use for these partners).
Bombers can be extremely important in defending us against any navy that comes: bombers are basically invulnerable against units on the field, and they'll reduce the enemy units to 1 HP, allowing us to destroy them with minimal losses. As such, they can be an asset in the war against a coalition army, since their troops will be much more numerous than ours, and technologically on par with ours.
Besides, once we get Mass Production, we will be able to build carriers. A few full carriers can wreak havic in an enemy's economy. We can bomb his whole infrastucture to oblivion, from the relative safety of the sea. Also, with a ravaged infrastructure, the enemy will not be able to bring reinforcements from the inland to transport ships, and as such will be much less efficient in invading us. Lastly, should we be at war against GoW, but allied with ND, we could prune city defenses for the inferior troops of ND to take them without difficulty.
Besides, the path to flight will get us Destroyers, which are as strong on attack as battleships are on defense. With proper air support, these fast destroyers can rapidly destroy the escorts of invading ships.
For these reasons, my suggestions are as follow:
1. Research Industrialization
2. Give Industrialization to Vox and ask them to research espionage for us, once they complete Communism.
3. Ask ND (if they agree with our science pact) to research Medicine and Sanitation
4. Research the Corporation
5. Research Refining. Since most deserts on the planet are in our territory, and since there isn't any Tundra on the map, we are almost sure to have oil.
6. Research Steel
7. Research Combustion
8. Research Flight.
In the meantime, we should trade as much as possible for techs with GoW and GS. We could get replaceable parts this way (yum), opening the road to Mass Production (Carriers!  )
I don't think we should trade for combustion nor flight with them. We must buy as much time as possible by not giving it to them.
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09-07-2003 12:43
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can we, can we, pleeease !! 
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