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The Mad Viking
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of the Great White North
Feb 2000 time: 05:27
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I don't think the "war" went much different than expected. I thought it would be a little faster, but with slightly higher casualties. The coalition slowed down a bit, did some extra recon, and reduced the casualties.
However, enjoy your celebration, because it won't get any better than this.
Obviously the people who aren't thrilled are not going to be out in the street protesting. So you only see the ones who are happy. You can be sure that many remain who are p!ssed.
The BEST CASE scenario for the future:
1. Thousands of militant guerillas engage in hit and run tactics against occupying forces.
(How many of the Iraqi RG etc remain at large?)
2. Competing and incompatible political interests in Iraq prove unable to effecting govern the country. The coalition inserts leadership that lacks widespread support. (like in Afganistan). Without strong central control backed by force, warlords and strongmen locally vie for power. Skirmishes and bombings are commonplace. Coalition and/or UN peacekeepers maintain the semblance of control, which deteriorates as the numbers of foreign troops are reduced over the following months.
3. Eventually, a competent, ruthless military leader, manages to establish control over the country, using whatever means necessary to repress incompatible competing interests.
4. The US announces that the previous regime was corrupt and establishes diplomatic relations with the new leader.
5. This leader, call him Hassam Suddein, calls an election. Widespread reports of fraud do not impede him from declaring a decisive victory. The US seems uninterested in the electoral irregularities in Iraq.
5. Over the years, he grows more powerful and becomes increasingly independent of the US. Eventually, the American military intervenes to protect their interests. The US announces that Iraq is once again a member of the Axis of Evil.
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Bereta_Eder
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Viking
(How many of the Iraqi RG etc remain at large?)
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around 90.000
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spiritof1202
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Afganistan was very different: The war was a UN coalition (even if the US did most of the heavy lifting,) and the UN set up a summit of Afgan opposition, and rubber stamped the agreed administration, then sat back and let them rule.
Its no real surprise that the Afgans have devolved into a tribal system.
Iraq doesn't have the same tribal warlords. They are very used to a centrally administrated system, so there will be fewer problems, provided we hold on the reins of 'national security' long enough.
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