18-04-2003 01:30									#1
	Thermopylae at A9 Increase the size of your Attachments

To reprise my post from Tuesday, with a little more time:

FFF***************************CCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!
!!!!!!!!!

Well played by Vox, and to those who have counseled extreme wariness, my hat is off to you.

I have underplayed my martial role, having not been enough the hawk, and for that I apologize to all.

(But watching the team in builder mode was fascinating :b ... as I've said before, I don;t play nearly as well as the GS team has, and it's been an excellent learning experience (OH NO, Theseus goes into AU mode! WORSE, Togas accuses me of being elitist ))

Speaking of AU, for those who remember when I had the time to play and write decent AARs, I developed a bit of a specialty in overcoming dire situations...

("Esprit de Corps! That's the way I earned my commission in the Maharaja's pachyderm brigade. Back in '88 it was, or was it? It was then I received the Victoria Cross for bravery above and beyond the call of duty. Ha-ha! Those were the days! Discipline. Discipline was the thing. Builds character and all that sort of thing."

Obscure movie reference... sorry, couldn;t help it. )
_______________________________________________

Anyway, back to dealing with tough spots, now from the perspective of 650 BC, and some different ideas I've been trying out on the save today while 'poly was down (note: same as Nathan, I got a Cat out of Monsoon):


HURRICANE

I figure let's get this one out of the way first, as it's easier. As I stated before 'poly went down, I think Vox blew it by either 1) not consolidating the three Immortals, or 2) keeping one Immortal on the Galley to threaten us further south.

I would fortify one vet Sword on Sandstorm6, and move the other vet and the reg to Hurricane8, to be fortified next turn. My logic is that I *want* the Immortals moving toward Sandstorm (and seemingly toward Voxian consolidation), so that we can get support from our Arashi WCs if need be, and to keep them away from the iron. I want to make them pay for it though, thus they have to fight through at least one tough Sword.

In addition, I configured Hurricane to produce a MedInf instead of a Pike, and EotS and Tornado to produce a Horseman each, all next turn.

Assuming they do come this way, the other two Swords can attack. If they go to Sandstorm9 or try to bust through the then-fortified Swords at Hurricane8, we have a vet Sword, vet MedInf, and two vet Horseman to deal with them, all before looking to Arashi for support.

Lastly, I added one Worker to Sandstorm and set it to build a Cat, and fortified a Worker on the iron.

I think we are fine here, even if the Galley comes back with two more Immortals.


ARASHI AND MONSOON

Vox' threats:

Vox, in my mind, made a serious mistake not either a) consolidating into a SoD at Arashi89, or b) moving the small stack to Monsoon6.

So now, how are we threatened? OK, so by not moving the small stack, Vox has continued the threat on Monsoon. Well, I think we are all prepared to lose Monsoon... actually, dealing only with the main stack and letting the small stack wander is probably a blessing. If need be, I could even foresee sacricing Whirlwind and faux-fleeing OG in order to get the small stack trapped in a desert killzone.

Arashi and the Spinebreakers are where the action will be.

Although I think Aeson's idea of giving up A9 has some strong positives to it, I think it too dangerous. How would we stop the big stack from coming 221 to the mountain between Arashi and Tempest, thus threatening both? And, with the increased defensive requirement of covering two towns, where would we get the offensive firepower to blow these clowns away? Lastly, what of the additional Immortals clearly coming our way?

Nope, I say it's time to take a stand. GS' Thermopylae... yes, against Persians.

I've got the WCs from Bolderberg and EotS in Arashi, the elite WC at 3hps, Hack upgraded to a MedInf, the remaining Warrior, and a Worker to seed the next build.

I've got Tempest and Arashi set to build a Pike each next turn.

I've pulled the northeastern WC back to the road at Arashi96 (as described above, I think Hurricane will be fine, and thus we don't need to watch for the Galley).

And I've got my equivalent of the Spartan 400 at A9: 3 Pikes, 4 Swords, 5 WCs, and 1 Cat. That's 12 combatant units; in other words, 11 Immortals and a Spear would have to win EVERY battle to take A9. And if they try to wait a turn to consolidate into a 14 Immortal and 2 Spear SoD, I'll have 6 more units in the immediate area to take A9 up to 18 combatants (many of which will be truly fortified).

So that means either we face off, or VOX F*CKING GETS OFF OUR SPINEBREAKERS!!

Ahem.

OK, now for the potential bad news: They attack next turn, when only the one reg Sword is actually fortified.

Aeson, can you or someone else run some tests on this scenario?

Look, I know it's going to be bloody as hell... friggin' WCs defending against Immortals??!!... but we can HOLD THE LINE!!! And, as we do, on this and successive turns, we will have local production power in our favor, and we will turn the tide!!


MISCELLANEOUS

I;ve got Monsoon, Whirlwind, and Sandstorm set to Cats.

Bolderberg and Cyclone are set to WCs in two turns (I disbanded a Worker in Cyclone).

Typhoon and Sufa are still on Galleys.

I've got the Workers on the three hills between Monsoon and Whirlwind.

WTF is GoW doing?


CHAT AND PREVIOUS TURNS

I am 100% serious about calling me any time, day or night. I think you guys did a heroic effort dealing with the last two turns (and the monster chat). I have noooooo problem with the decision to complete the GLH. I would have done some things differently, but hey, that's what I get for not being up at 5am.

Last edited by Theseus on 18-04-2003 at 01:50

	18-04-2003 01:38									#2
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Interesting, Theseus. Good constructive use of 'poly downtime

I would like to see some testing so we get an idea of the casualties we're likely to suffer/inflict. If "holding the line" costs us most of our army, it isn't worth it.

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 01:57									#3
	Remove this text

This was what I was going to post when Poly went down earlier...

I've run several tests with that makeup Theseus (note, this is in response to 11 units on Arashi 9), and we definitely hold Arashi 9. The problem is what we end up with with only 3 Pikes is highly variable.

The 'average' case is probably only 50% of the time, where we end up with 1-2 Pikes, 1-2 Swords, and maybe a dead/retreated WC or two. They end up with 4-6 Immortals, mostly wounded, but all outside our territory.

The 'worst' case (where I'd say we 'lose' even while holding) happens probably 25% of the time. We lose all our Pikes, and all but maybe 1 Sword. We also lose a WC or two. They end up with 8 Immortals, mostly wounded, but outside our territory.

The 'best case (where I'd say we 'win' all around) happens the other 25% of the time. We save most if not all of our Pikes, most if not all of our Swords, and they end up with 2-4 Immortals, mostly wounded, but outside our territory.

If the fight happens in Arashi, the odds move more to the center and to the best case. That's because we have an extra Pike, 2 extra Med Inf, and everything is fortified (~+5% odds all around).

The worst case isn't as bad (we almost surely save a pike or two, and 2-3 swords), the best case is more likely, and the average case works out better (see worst case). Plus all our wounded heal up the next turn, and all their wounded have to leave our territory, buying us 2 extra turns before we have to face them again.

	18-04-2003 01:59									#4
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

But again, you are assuming they attack Arashi... I wouldn't.

BTW, we *may* have an extra commentator helping out.

	18-04-2003 02:01									#5
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Hmm? Extra commentator?

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 02:01									#6
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I think there is a strong possibility that they will leave the SpineBreakers and move on EotS. Or they will take their shot at Arashi (where we have much better odds of winning).

We have to keep in mind what they know and what they don't. We also need to judge how patient they will be to explore while we build.

My estimation is that they will seek decisive action at an early date. Chewing on 4 or 5 fortified Pikes in Arashi is more likely to break their teeth.

	18-04-2003 02:09									#7
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

KILW AWL DA WABBATS!

Sorry, that just popped into my head.

Here comes Vox (Elmer Fudd) seeking to kill GS (Bugs) who keeps dancing around him, foiling him at every turn.

Dance like a butterfly, sting like a bee!

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 02:13									#8
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

I say withdraw to Arashi- the odds are in our favor and it forces Vox to make the decision the next turn: move to attack Arashi, not knowing the amount of defenders, down to the zee flood plains towards the capital, or down through the mountains.

I think we win all three of those options, especially number 2. Number one will allow more units in for defense and fortified. Number three would be dicier to defend two cities.

The attack in the cultural radius is important to me, to prevent them from healing.

Query:

What kind of units will we have for defense in Tempest by the time they come down the mountain? Thats what, three more turns?


If they continue to move south or east, leaving 2 spears on each mountain, we might consider sending a small contingent to destroy their supply lines from north (sack d'ville either from monsoon using m, inf or east using WC's

	18-04-2003 02:15									#9
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

If they bypass Arashi and we have Arashi 2 or Arashi 3 roaded, sometime after they leave the mountain, we can hit them with something along the lines of six medieval infantry and seven WCs. Even with the medieval infantry attacking across a river (the WCs wouldn't have to), my bet is that that gives us a much better kill/loss ratio than trying to hold Arashi 9 would. (I'd love for someone to test that scenario if they have time, hint hint, Aeson .) And Vox's survivors would be mostly if not all injured, and in our territory where they can't heal without withdrawing, in contrast to the Arashi 9 situation where they could merely sit where they are a couple turns. So I don't view Vox's bypassing Arashi as a huge nightmare.

	18-04-2003 02:15									#10
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

True NYE,

They know we can outproduce them and have to travel some distance for reinforcements to arrive, therefore they will be seeking to strike soon and trying to hit on a city, not 'neutral' or unimportant terrain.
-
Hurricane with it's wonder could be an immortal magnet too.
They could a destroyed wonder very well on the public forum, and as prove for other civs to keep funding them.

	18-04-2003 02:18									#11
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

If they cut the roads on the mountains, can our WCs still attack them?

Not sure if they would waste the immortal turn on that, esp if they are on the move still, but somthing to think about.

	18-04-2003 02:20									#12
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

No.

	18-04-2003 02:32									#13
	Remove this text

They don't know that they can split our cities. I agree with NYE that they are either headed for Arashi, or headed for EotS. We need them to do one of those two things to come out of this without losing Arashi IMO. If they call our showdown at Arashi 9, they probably take Arashi. We hold Arashi 9 that turn, but the most we will have in defense is a full pike

Abandoning the mining project does make Hurricane safer in the short term (next 4 turns), but will cost us a lot of shields.

If we want to give up Sandstorm, lets move the Workers to Hurricane 8 and mine, we can stack everything we have there that way (and put a WC on the Iron), they can't get through (if they attack the first turn, it's a slaughter, 2 Immortals up against 1 Pike (not fortified) 3 Swords (fortified). The Pike fortifies and has backup Pikes the next turn. It adds 1 more turn to building the mine. In the meantime, Hurricane builds this Pike, then starts pumping out 1 turn cats/WC's.

I would say rush a Settler in Sandstorm to disband it if we play it that way. We will want Settlers along with our offensive. Sandstorm isn't that productive at this point and is better positioned one tile 8 from where it is anyways... we just had to build it there because of the Republic being such a close thing.

---------------------

If we do try and hold Arashi 9... Disband one of the Warriors to seed a Pike in Arashi next turn with. A Pike next turn on Arashi 9 is more important than a Med Inf can be. If we are lucky, that gives us 2 new Pikes (Arashi, Tempest) to cover our wounded next turn, along with 1 Med Inf. Hopefully 1-2 Pike remain at Arashi 9 (they will be elite if it does almost surely), but they will both be redlined or close to it, so we have to pull them back into Arashi. We can't count on them for defense. Our Cat will survive almost surely.

I would put our chances of holding Arashi 9 (indefinitely) this way at ~80%. If we hold Arashi 9, Arashi holds too. If we lose Arashi 9, Arashi falls too.

I think our chances are slightly better pulling back to Arashi and hoping they don't know to try to split Arashi and Tempest. Arashi almost surely holds if they hit it directly, so the chance of failure is almost completely the chance that they will bypass Arashi and head for Tempest. Even then though, we have pretty decent odds of holding both cities... especially if they guess the wrong one to attack.

The chance for us to win this war (for all intents and purposes... it's still going to be hard to make the swing into offense though) here and now at Arashi 9 are there, and pretty decent.

	18-04-2003 02:33									#14
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Edit: I realized my analysis was wrong.

Last edited by nbarclay on 18-04-2003 at 03:51

	18-04-2003 02:34									#15
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Vox, in my mind, made a serious mistake not either a) consolidating into a SoD at Arashi89, or b) moving the small stack to Monsoon6.

If they sent 3 of their 11 off to hit Monsoon, we hold Arashi 9 (no-brainer).

So the decision can wait until we know for sure. If they have 11 Immortals at Arashi 89, it's a tough decision.

	18-04-2003 02:38									#16
	Re: Thermopylae at A9 Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Theseus Obscure movie reference...

Is it 'Chicken Run' by any chance?
There are plenty of movies that make fun of Vietnam veterans, but I think the exact text that you quoted appeared on Chicken Run.

quote: My logic is that I *want* the Immortals moving toward Sandstorm (and seemingly toward Voxian consolidation), so that we can get support from our Arashi WCs if need be, and to keep them away from the iron.

I LOVE it! By funneling their troops so that some of the forces that guard Arashi could also respond to threats near Sandstorm, we are basically turning this from a state of 2 fronts on the attack and 2 on the defense to 2 fronts on the attack and one on the defense, thus increasing the efficiency of our forces.

	18-04-2003 02:40									#17
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

By the combat calculator alone... yes you are right Nathan. Attacking accross the river gives us better odds than defending on a Mountain.

Worst case:
4 attack (3hps) vs 2 defense (4hps)
53.8%

Average case:
4 attack (4hps) vs 2 defense (4hps)
70.4%

Best case:
4 attack (4hps) vs 2 defense (3hps)
81.6%

The question is... if we stack up on Arashi 9 does this force them onto the flats so we can get these and better odds? Or will they risk an all or nothing (for them most likely... for us it's all or Arashi/Tempest) battle?

	18-04-2003 02:42									#18
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

@Aeson:

As I originally posted, the way I had it set upt, I did have Arashi and Tempest both building Pikes next turn. I think I seeded Arashi with a Worker.

I'm not 100% sure you understood my point: A9 *cannot* (almost) fall the next turn. I guess I would follow up on that by saying, fine, let's pull back into Arashi then if we need to, but not now, when we would be allowing ELEVEN IMMORTALS ONTO A MOUNTAIN WITHIN SPITTING DISTANCE OF OUR CAPITOL!!

What if they DID go for EotS from there? I'm not sure we could stop them.

I'd rather Vox' force crash upon the Rock at A9, even to the extent we take some serious damage... we can handle them from there, even in your bottom 25% scenario.

	18-04-2003 02:42									#19
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't disbanding or losing Sandstorm make it a lot easier for Vox's forces to strike into our heart by opening up roads outside our cultural borders? I view Sandstorm as expendable if things go badly for us, but not as something we want (or can afford) simply to give away. On the other hand, moving our mining effort to Hurricane 8 and planting a pike and a fortified sword there would give our workers a better chance of surviving. Two fortified swords and a WC could prevent the first two immortals from taking Sandstorm right away, and from there, we could decide whether we can afford a fight for Sandstorm or whether we need our forces elsewhere. (Note that if Vox strikes toward EotS, a WC fortified at Sandstorm 6 would still be in easy striking range of Vox's Arashi forces.)

	18-04-2003 02:43									#20
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

I don't think they can get that stack over to Hurricane (they don't even know where Hurricane is yet... they do know where our Iron is though). We eat away at it until it becomes almost nothing if they try. Then they run into the 3-4 Pikes we can have there by the time they get there, on the Mountain 8 of Hurricane. That either breaks the stack for sure, or forces it onto the flats for a third round of WC attacks... along with a final killing blow from Med Inf.

	18-04-2003 02:44									#21
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Aeson The question is... if we stack up on Arashi 9 does this force them onto the flats so we can get these and better odds? Or will they risk an all or nothing (for them most likely... for us it's all or Arashi/Tempest) battle?

Interesting. when you put it that way, I'm back on the fence.
I like forcing their hand, and this would certainly do that.

My question:

What would you Aeson, Theseus, Nathan, Arrian do if in Vox's situation? Attack a large stack at even at best odds or move off?

	18-04-2003 02:52									#22
	Get a bigger avatar today!

I'd go for it... and see how it went battle by battle. I'd stop if I were getting my ass kicked. And I'd consolidate the small stack for the next turn.

A further answer: With A9 empty, I'd start working my way down the Spinebreakers.

	18-04-2003 03:00									#23
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

I understand that they can't take Arashi 9 that turn Theseus. I know I post an awful lot to read... but it's in there a few times at least.

The problem is the turn after... They can have 11 Immortals (8 surviving, 3 new ones?) to hit Arashi 9 the next turn... when we only will have a couple partly dead/mostly dead units and the 2 new Pikes, 2 new Med Inf (if we use a worker to seed... the road gets done at the right time either way).

This is worst case of course.

Normally I'd expect they have 6 Immortals (the three from Arashi 887)... 3 Damaged, 2 regs, 1 Vet, vs 2 Pikes, maybe 1-2 damaged elite Pikes that would probably want to retreat into Arashi to heal, 1-2 Sword, 2 Med inf.

We hold Arashi 9 on average, lose Arashi 9 and Arashi worst case, and win this war outright this turn in best case. I'm just not sure how much we are willing to gamble here.

---------------

If they head for EotS their stack might as well disband itself right now. We can kill 11 Immortals the second they step off the Mountains given that much time to build up. That's assuming they take the 'best' road there they can, down past Tempest to EotS 44, and then only have 1 Plains tile to cross. That's giving us 7 turns of a unit a turn in EotS and Hurricane, a unit every other turn in Bolderberg, Tempest, and Cyclone (Cats), and a unit every 3 turns in Tornado... along with whatever we cash rush along the way.

By my count we could hit them with (leaving more than enough Pikes in Arashi to hold against reinforcements):

~20 WC's/Horsemen
~4 Cats
~8-10 Med Inf (depending on how Hurricane fares)

And anything that survived that (nothing would) would have to face Pikes in EotS.

This is why I say we should pray they are headed to EotS. (it's uglier if they try along the E side of the river, not as many units, but far more turns in the open)

	18-04-2003 03:04									#24
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by Theseus I'd go for it... and see how it went battle by battle. I'd stop if I were getting my ass kicked. And I'd consolidate the small stack for the next turn.

Agreed. And if they do that, it would prevent us from winning as big a victory at A9 as we would in Aeson's best-case scenarios, while fully exposing us to his worst-case scenarios.

quote: A further answer: With A9 empty, I'd start working my way down the Spinebreakers.

Even knowing that in doing so, you expose your forces to an attack on flatlands from an unknown number of swordsmen, medieval infantry (if you remember the possibility of upgrades), and war chariots? If Vox can take Arashi, they have a clear path down the Spinebreakers without ever having to get on flatlands.

	18-04-2003 03:07									#25
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

If I was Vox I'd hit Arashi 9. The war is a lost cause for them unless other civs join in and actually have troops they can land very soon. GoW is the only threat for this, and I doubt they could land enough troops.

Barcelona just built a Harbor...so they can't have built many Galleys. Same with ND's coastal city (forever away too). So Vox's best shot is to take Arashi, hurting us... hit Monsoon and Sandstorm, which they probably can take if they really want to... and make a play for Tempest (which I don't think they can take in any case).

The minute they bring their Immortals off the Mountains, this war is 'over' IMO.

	18-04-2003 03:12									#26
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Well them killing a couple Immortals on our Pikes fits in with 'best case' in my book. So they have 11-12 Immortals there the next turn (basically swapping out 2 Vets for 2 Regs most likely), and we have 5 Pikes, maybe 1 Elite, and 2 more Med Inf. 3 of our Pikes are fortified, as are all our 2 defense units. Our cat gets a free shot, and we are 1 turn closer to the reinforcements.

In that scenario we hold Arashi 9 forever IMO.

	18-04-2003 03:16									#27
	Remove this text

If I were in Vox's shoes...

I'd definitely want Arashi.

I would have put every unit I had in the area in a monster stack, prepared to hit A9. Then, based upon what I saw sitting on A9 at the beginning of the turn, I'd decide whether or not to hit it.

If presented with an empty A9, I'd definitely move onto it. And then probably hit Arashi.

Confronted with 3 pikemen, 4 swordsmen, a cat and some WCs on A9... I'd probably try to work out the probabilities. Presented with the odds Aeson is talking about, I'd probably roll the dice. They have to know the longer things go, the better it is for us.

Then, if I took A9, I'd try to hold it and bring up reinforcements to take Arashi, sooner rather than later.

Still, it's ugly from anyone's perspective. Hell, I would have either invaded us a while ago, or not at all. Letting us get to pikemen & med inf. probably screwed them.

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 03:18									#28
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

To take the issue of whether I would attack Arashi if I were in Vox's place a bit farther, it would really depend on what I thought the enemy had there. If I thought I could take it, I would.

1) It provides a clear shot down the spinebreakers without entering flatlands, or, alternatively, I can use GS's road network in Arashi.
2) It gives me a place to heal that isn't so far back.
3) It costs GS production.
4) It avoids leaving enemy troops behind me.

In contrast, bypassing Arashi requires that I (as a Voxian general) expose my forces to attack on flatlands with no return on my losses except for whatever enemy forces I might kill in the process.

	18-04-2003 03:25									#29
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Nathans perspective causes me to ponder the following which is slightly off topic and hopefully purely hypothetical:


It will be interesting to see, if arashi fails, what Vox does with it.

do they try to hold it, knowing its surrounded by GS cities?

do hey hold for a turn to heal, then abandon?

do they raze immediately?

They might be under orders from RP to raze everything they can.

Or they might just raze everything for their own reasons



Think of the propaganda out of Beta if Arashi falls?

uke:

	18-04-2003 03:25									#30
	Increase Your PM Length

They can get down to Tempest on Mountains... but they probably don't know that (or where Tempest or any of our cities down there are). There is a slight chance they stole our world map, but then why not land on/near our Iron and Hurricane with more? Certainly worth delaying for a couple of Galleys, and this is too well planned to not consider their only real shot at beating us (taking Hurricane and our Iron ASAP).