18-04-2003 03:26									#31
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edit:

Last edited by asleepathewheel on 18-04-2003 at 04:04

	18-04-2003 03:47									#32
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Somehow or other, I've been missing the option of Vox's going from Arashi 9 to Arashi 3. That does give them an all-mountains route down if they take Arashi 9, so we probably do need to hold Arashi 9 at all costs.

	18-04-2003 03:57									#33
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Yeah, I was just lookin' at that.

I missed it too, though. *smacks self*

Ok, debate over, HOLD A9!

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 03:58									#34
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No!

Writing...

	18-04-2003 04:02									#35
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Edit: ah, now I get it.

ignore this post.

-Arrian

Last edited by Arrian on 18-04-2003 at 04:17

	18-04-2003 04:11									#36
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If we want to hold, we probably want to disband a worker to start a pike in Arashi (using a short rush and hoping Vox doesn't manage to spoil it). That plus a warrior upgrade would give us two pikes and a medieval infantry as fresh troops. Then we can short rush a pike a turn in Arashi and get a pike every other turn from Tempest.

The big problem with not holding A9 is that if Vox follows the Spinebreakers down in what is certainly the most logical path to EotS, they'll land on A2 able to attack both Arashi and Tempest. There is no way we could possibly be prepared to hold both cities, especially with Vox's follow-on forces also poised to attack Arashi, so our only even possible chance would be piling defenders in one of them and hoping Vox focuses its attack on the wrong one.

By the way, if we try to hold A9, we may want to be careful in how many WCs we show. If Vox would decide to go around our stack instead of trying to fight through pikes, that would be fantastic.

	18-04-2003 04:14									#37
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They know where EotS is. They know the mountains are there, just not the extent. What would you do?

I would either a: seek decisive battle ASAP. That would be Arashi. We are much better off defending in there in another turn than at Arashi 9.

b: Go down the mountains as far as they take me and jump off to go after EotS.

If a is their plan, we are best off in Arashi.

If b is their plan, they will leave both Arashi and Tempest alone if they have Pikes in them. Walls around Tempest would help too.

What should our plan be?

Well, Civ3 battles go to the side who has the forces available to finish off wounded stacks during later rounds of combat. We need to preserve our forces for as long as possible, build up enough so that at the moment they expose themselves, we have the forces to destroy as many of them as possible leaving the rest badly wounded and unable to heal.

With 14 Immortals as little as 4 turns from EotS, our army is not expendable, especially if they take a city and can heal close to us.

To be honest, I would be willing to abandon Tempest to keep it from them on their Southern march, if that is what they do. We can replace it and have it back to where it is with 6 turns of production at Cyclone. We don't loose much if we abandon it. We loose a lot if we give up our army and Arashi.

	18-04-2003 04:15									#38
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My main concern now is, if we don't try to hold A9, they will, logically, go for A1, as you said.

We're screwed if that happens.

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 04:19									#39
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay If we want to hold, we probably want to disband a worker to start a pike in Arashi (using a short rush and hoping Vox doesn't manage to spoil it). That plus a warrior upgrade would give us two pikes and a medieval infantry as fresh troops. Then we can short rush a pike a turn in Arashi and get a pike every other turn from Tempest.

Yes. Maximum force at the earliest possible date.

Where would the labourer go if they jump onto one of the mined bonus tiles?

	18-04-2003 04:20									#40
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I think we have to have 3 WC's there to be safe (not lose everything in the worst case). I agree that the rest shouldn't be out there in any case.

They know for sure that they can't get to EotS on the Mountains (close but not quite). They also can't see every tile along the way, so they may have to cross more dangerous terrain.

I think they have to hit Arashi given what they know. They certainly could stumble into a slightly better chance to take one city (or even have stolen our map)... but they have to kill at least 2 more units than they would otherwise (we get 2 units out of Arashi in that time.. Pikes if we short rush).

	18-04-2003 04:21									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian My main concern now is, if we don't try to hold A9, they will, logically, go for A1, as you said. We're screwed if that happens. -Arrian

I think we should be prepared to abandon Tempest if they march South around Arashi.

It hurts a lot less than giving them a city in our core.

	18-04-2003 04:23									#42
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I think we should be prepared to abandon Tempest if they march South around Arashi. It hurts a lot less than giving them a city in our core.

I was thinking that earlier, something to force them off the mountains.

One thing:

Its going to kill me if they know we abandoned it and Beta goes on his propaganda campaign. but oh well, thats ok, better than them getting the city.

	18-04-2003 04:25									#43
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Arrian and Nathan, please go back and read my original post in this thread... I was sorta messy how I described all of my actions, but I think I addressed almost every town's Worker joins, short-rushes, and production.

nye, thanks for stating that out loud, as I hadn't... it's not just the face off, it is what happens after... who can take out damaged units? I think I covered that too, although perhaps not enough.

Aeson, without killing yourself with test runs, given your gut-level prediction of an A9 face off, and a possible pull-back into Arashi, and assuming we have... hmmm...

The units already in Arashi:
1 reg MedInf
2 vet WCs
1 Warrior

Next turn:
Warrior upgrades to reg MedInf
Two new Pikes, one fortified and one not
One Horseman

The following turn:
Two more new Pikes
One more Horsemen
Two new WCs
One additional MedInf

... then how will we be doing?

I'll say it again: Vox basically CANNOT take A9, and then we got'em.

	18-04-2003 04:26									#44
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I say no way, we fight. Tempest isn't "core" perse, but it sure as hell isn't something I'm willing to abandon. I'd rather fight it out at A9.

I don't care what Beta says, so long as we win. That isn't entering into my thoughts.

Think about what abandoning a reasonably big city would do to us, not just in production, but also in revenues.

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 04:26									#45
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel I was thinking that earlier, something to force them off the mountains. One thing: Its going to kill me if they know we abandoned it and Beta goes on his propaganda campaign. but oh well, thats ok, better than them getting the city.

It would destroy them to march past our army and into a desolation while we build a second army to annihilate them with.

They would be putting themselves into the middle of the hurricane, and the minute they pop out onto the plains, they die.

	18-04-2003 04:31									#46
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quote: We're screwed if that happens.

I don't think so. Arashi or Tempest may be screwed, but I really think they lose any chance to seriously hurt us by doing so.

We will be pinging away at them for 3 turns with catapults, that's 1-2 hps gone on average luck with 1 catapult, and we could have another there to hit on the 3rd turn. So say their stack of 11 loses 2 hps to Catapults. Given how close the fights will be if they do end up hitting Arashi or Tempest... those 2 HPs probably give us about the same odds in both cities simultaneously that we would now have at Arashi 9.

Then we get 3 more turns of production in Arashi that we might not if they hit it directly... more HPs to our favor. We'd need to get city walls in Tempest of course, or possibly overload Tempest with units and not build the Walls (a Pike in a single battle like this may be worth more than the walls) to get them to focus on Tempest.

The longer we can extend them without a major showdown, the more we gain on them. If they bypass Arashi showing a Pike... they aren't doing it to hit Tempest showing a Pike... they are headed to EotS. That's what they can see (barring that they stole our map).

	18-04-2003 04:34									#47
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How many vet spears do they have? The first cat hits will be on the vet spears. Then vet immortals. Then regular spears. Then reg immortals.

Taking hps off their spearmen is ok and all, but it won't degrade their attack ability.

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 04:37									#48
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Arrian.

Think Russia. Think conservation of force until the point of our choosing at odds in our favour. Then the battle of their annihilation. Not before then.

	18-04-2003 04:40									#49
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NYE's post got me thinking. If we would fall back to Arashi, and then fall back to Tempest except for two pikes if Vox moves to Arashi 2 or Arashi 1, the uncertainty factor just might give us the edge. (We'd need some new roads to ensure that Vox can't cut off our path between the two cities.) If Vox views a size 6 city as a target worthy of their attention, they'll be smashed on our defenses. Or they might bypass both Arashi and Tempest, going for EotS (especially when they see it as size 12). We'd only lose Arashi if Vox keeps pressing their attack after the second pike shows up in spite of not knowing what might be hidden behind that second pike. Odds are still high that we'd lose Arashi, but it's not a certainty.



odds are good that either we'll get our decisive battle one place or the other or Vox will get caught out in the open trying to attack a pike-stuffed EotS.


NYE has an interesting point about the possibility of a bluff. If we can pull our forces except for a pike or two back to Tempest, we could get our decisive battle in Tempest if Vox decides

	18-04-2003 04:40									#50
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I just don't think we're in Russia's position, is all.

I don't think we NEED to put ourselves in a position where we disband a size 6 city near our core!

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 04:48									#51
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Yes. Maximum force at the earliest possible date. Where would the labourer go if they jump onto one of the mined bonus tiles?

I figured out a way to make sure we get our shields if they jump on one, but I can't do anything about if they jump on both. The strategy for dealing with one involves having EotS steal an irrigated grassland from Hurricane (which doesn't need its maximum food or production potential at the moment), which lets Tempest steal a mined plains from EotS, which leaves a forest open for a laborer to jump to. With laborers working all the higher-food tiles in the area (which also requires sacrificing a shield in favor of extra food in Sandstorm), that should be where a laborer would jump if Vox moves onto a grassland.

	18-04-2003 04:49									#52
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I could go for Nathan's take.

Form up in Arashi. If they go to Arashi 3, then move all but 2 or 3 Pikes to Tempest.

That does not give up any city in our core.

	18-04-2003 04:54									#53
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Ok, so NYE, Nathan and Aeson want to withdraw from A9.

Theseus and I want to hold A9.

Asleep seems to be leaning toward withdrawing as well.

Vel is around, and wants to chime in... hopefully soon.

Anyone else?

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 04:58									#54
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If we cancel work on our mine, we could plant roads on Arashi 4 and Tempest 7 to give us an alternate route from Arashi to Tempest in case Vox might decide it's worth using a hill instead of a mountain to cut off movement between the two cities.

	18-04-2003 05:00									#55
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I'll give my best estimate of our chances given 5 scenarios: (odds are including whether or not vox will take the action to set that up, along with the absolute chances given in a battle of that sort)

A. Defend Arashi 9, Vox plows into it.
B. Defend Arashi 9, Vox goes around it. (works if we pull back into Arashi and they don't move onto Arashi 9)
C. Defend Arashi, Vox plows into it.
D. Defend Arashi, Vox goes around and attacks Arashi or Tempest when they split them.
E. Defend Arashi, Vox goes around and passes on the split, heading for EotS.

Best case:
A. We kill all but 2-4 of the Immortals in the attack. most of our units survive, though badly damaged. Vox never makes it onto Arashi 9. Odds of this happening: 20% (there is a chance they move onto the flats)
B. We kill Vox's stack in 2 turns, losing a couple WC's and Med Inf. All our Pikes survive, and we are relatively in the clear. Odds of this happening: 5% (they just aren't going to move onto the flats unless they are stupid)
C. We kill all but 2 of the Immortals in the attack. Most of our units survive, and get healed up the next turn. Vox can hold Arashi 9, but they can't threaten anything after that. Odds of this happening: 40%
D. Depends a whole lot on what we do. Odds are 50% we could guess right and overload the right city... then things end up like C, but we run a big risk of losing the other city if things don't work out. If we split our forces somewhat equally, we have about the same odds as in case A for whichever city they decide to hit. Odds of the best case: 20%
E. We kill their whole stack the turn it hits the flats. We lose a couple WC's and Med Inf, but not a very large percentage of our troops in any case. The war is over for all intents and purposes. Odds of this happening: 10% (I can't see them passing up the split, or even going for the split as they don't know it's there)

The Average and Worst cases are all pretty much relative to those best cases stated above. C and E give us the least chances of a worst case type outcome, but are dependant on Vox's decision. A and B are our most volitile (well not if they go for B, but we can't know that beforehand), and have the highest chance of hurting us. Case D isn't any more volitile than A or B unless we overload a city, and will pay off regarding overall position IMO. we keep Arashi no matter what for 3 extra turns of production.

Pure battles (not taking into account the chances of what Vox will do)

Best case: (where we win as well as can be hoped for)
A. 25%
B. 15%
C. 60%
D. 40%
E. 5% (all the outcomes for Vox are relatively the same in this situation, they lose in a rout)

Average case: (where we come out somewhat ahead)
A. 50%
B. 80% (not enough troops massed to hit them decisively, but the outcome is almost assured, mainly differs in units lost on our side, they lose their stack in any case)
C. 60%
D. 30%
E. 90% (all the outcomes for Vox are relatively the same in this situation, they lose badly)

Worst case: (where even by holding we lose ground relative to Vox)
A. 25%
B. 5%
C. 60%
D. 30%
E. 5% (all the outcomes for Vox are relatively the same in this situation, they lose, but hurt more of our WC's/Horses than we'd like)

	18-04-2003 05:04									#56
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A bit OT? Maybe not.

Could we sucker them into the plains?

There was some talk of abandoning Sandstorm. Let's see...

They move to Arashi 9.

We abandon Sandstorm.

They see a shorter path to EotS by jumping down onto the road 9 6 of Arashi. From there they can move 2 2 the following turn and get to within 2 of EotS. Of course, they never make it that far, as the WC and MedInf destroy them in the first plains they enter.

btw, it also shows them an open path to unite their Eastern Immortal force with their main body.

Just an idea.

	18-04-2003 05:06									#57
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay If we cancel work on our mine, we could plant roads on Arashi 4 and Tempest 7 to give us an alternate route from Arashi to Tempest in case Vox might decide it's worth using a hill instead of a mountain to cut off movement between the two cities.

Good idea, I think. Enough workers to do it in a turn after one is used for seed?

	18-04-2003 05:08									#58
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Should be enough turns before we need the roads.

	18-04-2003 05:08									#59
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Vox has reconnected thier iron, so the reinforcements might be on their way. Just an FYI.




Many Alvans died to bring us this information.

	18-04-2003 05:12									#60
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My hope is that their reconnecting their iron means they're short on gold. Building warriors for upgrade makes no sense once they already have more than they can afford to upgrade. I'm not ready to bet the farm on that interpretation, of course.