18-04-2003 07:53									#121
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Randolph: Assuming an attack at Arashi....immediately following the attack, aside from cleanup (hunting down the wounded, if there are any), I'd vote for not doing much of anything overtly. We'll need a couple turns to heal our own forces, and augment them with the latest builds, but once we do that, getting scouts re-established in the mountains is of paramount importance, as is patrolling the flatland corridor northward.

Between that and keeping the sealanes patrolled, I don't think we ought to do anything extensive till we're ready to bury them.

-=Vel=-

	18-04-2003 07:53									#122
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Actually, Vox's spear would be the logical pillager, since it would be insane for him to attack anyhow. That could help wounded Voxians get away, but attacking into mountains with WCs isn't exactly my favorite thing in the entire world in any case.

	18-04-2003 07:54									#123
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither What about covering with a worker, til a Pike from EotS, or the fleet, can get there?

That costs us an extra turn where we can't produce 30-shield units.

	18-04-2003 07:56									#124
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OK. How about the 4th sword? better on the Iron, than in Hurricane, yes?

	18-04-2003 07:56									#125
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Thanks, I hadn't seen your post yet and I was probing for our current genneral strategy for the Arashi area (I did read Aeson's statistical post)

My idea was based on the hope that they wouldn't attack next turn, but would more the units A88 to A89 before attacking A9.

	18-04-2003 07:59									#126
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wow this is hard to keep up with.

So basically, we move everything into Arashi and wait for an attack?

	18-04-2003 08:00									#127
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I was thinking three swords on Sandstorm 6 and one plus the pike Hurricane finishes next turn on Hurricane 8. We'll need a third unit of some sort on Sandstorm 6 when Vox is in a position to attack it in case they get lucky at roughly even odds in each battle. By the way, note that a WC on the iron would still be in a position to attack if Vox crosses to the east side of the river; we'd only be taking a WC away from our attacks if Vox comes down off the mountains on the west side.

	18-04-2003 08:01									#128
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quote: Originally posted by Randolph So basically, we move everything into Arashi and wait for an attack?

Except for the sword 6 from Arashi, which helps in the Hurricane area.

	18-04-2003 08:02									#129
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Do we want to go ahead and play the rest of the turn? I've put about as much time into this as I can afford to for today.

	18-04-2003 08:03									#131
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Have we decided to recall our northern WC for the time being?

	18-04-2003 08:04									#132
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Sounds good. I would certainly love to see more pikes in the area before a showdown, but I suppose we're better off bracing for an Arashi assault in 2 turns than taking risks to delay them.

	18-04-2003 08:05									#133
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That is the currently favoured thinking. We have 5 Pikes instead of 3. Fortified on hill behind walls vs not fortified on mountain. They do not know how much is there before they begin. They commit as much as they want to the meat grinder and hopefully only uncover Vet Pikes.

Of course, what hasn't been calculated is the factor that they get to judge results before deciding to continue or stop. That makes the chances of them decisively defeating us higher relative to the reverse being the case for either Arashi 9 or Arashi, because the chance of them stopping after the 4th or 5th or 6th Immortal proving mortal is very high.

	18-04-2003 08:06									#134
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New thought on protecting the iron: We'll still use a WC this turn, but I've been planning to bring in another worker to add to Hurricane as soon as we have a mine ready, and he can take over next turn.

	18-04-2003 08:07									#135
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay Have we decided to recall our northern WC for the time being?

I would.

quote: Originally posted by nbarclay New thought on protecting the iron: We'll still use a WC this turn, but I've been planning to bring in another worker to add to Hurricane as soon as we have a mine ready, and he can take over next turn.

Cool. And after that, our fleet secures it, most likely. Have to keep something within range and free in case of loosing both Gallies though.

	18-04-2003 08:08									#136
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Yes to the WC question, would be my vote. And by the way NYE, do I have your permission to make an off-hand comment re: catapults & Pike at Ashari waiting? (in the trash talk thread, I mean)

-=Vel=-

	18-04-2003 08:09									#137
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Of course, what hasn't been calculated is the factor that they get to judge results before deciding to continue or stop. That makes the chances of them decisively defeating us higher relative to the reverse being the case for either Arashi 9 or Arashi, because the chance of them stopping after the 4th or 5th or 6th Immortal proving mortal is very high.

True. But if we can cripple them enough that we can defend Arashi and Tempest both against what they have left, we've won.

	18-04-2003 08:09									#138
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither That is the currently favoured thinking. We have 5 Pikes instead of 3. Fortified on hill behind walls vs not fortified on mountain. They do not know how much is there before they begin. They commit as much as they want to the meat grinder and hopefully only uncover Vet Pikes.

yes, certainly a showdown at Arashi in two turns is better than at Arashi 9 in one.

quote: Of course, what hasn't been calculated is the factor that they get to judge results before deciding to continue or stop. That makes the chances of them decisively defeating us higher relative to the reverse being the case for either Arashi 9 or Arashi, because the chance of them stopping after the 4th or 5th or 6th Immortal proving mortal is very high.

Well if they're going to play that way they can do it at any time.

	18-04-2003 08:13									#139
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay True. But if we can cripple them enough that we can defend Arashi and Tempest both against what they have left, we've won.

My hope exactly. they see the 4th or 5th Pike with their 7th or 8th Immortal and say forget it.

quote: Originally posted by Randolph Well if they're going to play that way they can do it at any time.

That is the advantage of the attacker. You can judge results and stop if they are going against you. You loose whatever you are prepared to, but quit before it is a catastrophe.

	18-04-2003 08:14									#140
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Godd*mnit, I love havin' Vel around!

Guys, I've struggled with the same communication problem since I first started posting here (and trying to emulate Vel). Given time, I can develop a thesis and supporting logical argument... but I also have a computer in the back of my head that tells me *more*... "intuitive logic" for anyone that knows the Dorsai.

Here's what my "intuitive logic" tells me:

1) This is just about all Vox has got. There may be another stack of 3-4 Immortals somewhere, probably on the east coast... the big questions are a) does Vox have two east coast Galleys and b) are the possible Immortals in place to be loaded and delivered in such a way as to effectively / efficiently threaten our iron.

2) Vox may have a fair number of remaining Warriors to be upgraded... whoever their shadow supporters are, after the intial cash inducement, what follows? Clearly, Vox can't generate the gold necessary for the next 5-10 Warrior upgrades.

[Intuitive logic chain continues]

3) Whatever they have planned for the east coast, we can handle it.

So, if the above is the case, our moment of truth is now, with the two threatening stacks.

Does everyone understand that the entire map radius of EoTS must assumed to be known? And that Vox getting to Arashi 3 shows Tempest, and thus shows the equivalent of a chess knight trap?!

READ THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH AGAIN.

Sorry if I'm coming off strident (shades of Togas' issues... note to self: re-visit), but I don;t get what you guys don;t get.

Allowing Vox onto A9 is friggin' criminal.

Sorry if I'm STILL not communicating well enough.

One more thing: Aeson, the way you reported on the A9 defense test was a little bit unclear... do we generally preserve our offensive forces?

	18-04-2003 08:14									#141
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Okay, I've finished playing the turn other than maybe a final checkover.

	18-04-2003 08:16									#142
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quote: Originally posted by Velociryx And by the way NYE, do I have your permission to make an off-hand comment re: catapults & Pike at Ashari waiting? (in the trash talk thread, I mean) -=Vel=-

My permission not required, but do you really think that would encourage them to attack? What if they turtle?

	18-04-2003 08:17									#143
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If they turtle, that buys us time, and makes ANY gains by their side even less likely than they are now. Either way, we win....

-=Vel=-

	18-04-2003 08:18									#144
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But....I still didn't wanna make a comment in public without your blessing, since it does give them some information (which they will, granted, not know the truth of either way). Still, it'll plant the seed....

-=Vel=-

	18-04-2003 08:19									#145
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Not if they win, Theseus, and the chances of them loosing badly are very low, because they can call it off anytime they want.

They attack and loose 3 Immortals in short order? They stop, because they know exactly what we have. They lack that knowledge at Arashi and could maybe be drawn into a larger sacrifice, while we enjoy better odds that they cannot decisively defeat us.

	18-04-2003 08:20									#146
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'k....and precisely why I wanted to ask before posting any sort of comment. I shall refrain.

-=Vel=-

	18-04-2003 08:23									#147
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Our upgrade brought us up to average relative to RP, but we're still weak relative to Vox. We have four pikes and a medieval infantry scheduled for completion next turn.

	18-04-2003 08:24									#148
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Ahhh, but to clarify, here's what I meant:

If I make the comment re: catapults, upon looking at the map, they'll realize that if we DO really have them in the city, we'll get three shots if they try and go around.

Three possible responses to this are:
1) They attack Ashari in force, which is what we want.

2) They leave the mountains for the flatlands (I don't think they're dumb enough to do this)

or

3) They pull back and wait for more reinforcements/more donations from their allies, giving us more time to build our army.

True, if they attack, they can call it off at any time, I'm talking about shaping their behavior more to our benefit.

-=Vel=-

	18-04-2003 08:26									#149
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I didn't realise that I was posting a reason to stay mum. Heh. two birds with one stone.

However, Vel. My permission is not required for anything around here. We are a team. A community of peers. Yes, we shoot ourselves in the foot from time to time, but that is the weakness we bear for the strength that we enjoy by our open, consensus based organisation.

	18-04-2003 08:27									#150
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Fair enough then....nonetheless, if the consensus is against making a comment, I certainly shall not. What say you?

-=Vel=-