19-04-2003 19:51									#61
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I am coming to see the value of the cease fire

another bonus-closer to chivalry and knights

	19-04-2003 19:53									#62
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Indeed, good sir....that's another couple steps closer.....

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 19:58									#63
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* Theseus is in awe at Vel's ability to generate PC.

	19-04-2003 20:03									#64
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quote: * Theseus is in awe at Vel's ability to generate PC.

I even stopped going back to the forum, I just keep refreshing this thread
-
Where is that save gdammit!!! I going mad here !!!

	19-04-2003 20:03									#65
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Thanks bud! I try to walk that fine line, you know.....don't want it to look like blatant spam, but.....

-=Vel=-

(+1)

	19-04-2003 20:04									#66
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Are you all in the chat room #GatheringStorm? For some reason I'm not allowed in.


Dominae

	19-04-2003 20:08									#67
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Vel-

you could send a pm to whomever your mysterious contact is and tell him to stop delaying the save. If it gets here soon, we will be much more likely to agree to something.

	19-04-2003 20:11									#68
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quote: Originally posted by Dominae I believe you're underestimating their capabilities, and overestimating ours (at this point in time). We're not even close to "overwhelming force", and so 10-15 turns is a bit idealistic. Even if it could happen, we would lose most of our forces in the process.

No, not really. So far, I was right on spot of what Vox could have as military force, they have so far shown a little less then what I predicted the first turn of war. And even the 23 immortals RP is talking about fits...

Let's do, just for fun, a little analysis. We currently produce 137 shields each turn, and get enough cash to rush another 30 of them (if we use the cash to upgrade, we gain 60 shields). That makes for over 5 good units each turn, meaning pikes, med infs, horsemen, or even knights. Multiply that by 10 turns, and you get an extra force of 50 units, quite impressive at this point in game. We have about 10 units right now, so without a war, we can be at 60 units in 10 turns

Vox has at most 30 units now, but if they are all immortals, they won't have enough funds left to upgrade more warriors. They produce little less then 50 shields each turn, so at most they also can produce 50 units in the next 10 turns, all of them warriors. Further, they make about 40 gold each turn, enough for one immortal upgrade. In total I would estimate their continous unit production ability at 3 good units each turn maximum (meaning 1 warrior upgraded to immortal, 1 spear, and an extra immortal build themselves, or upgraded with whatever cash they receive from abroad). So, in 10 turns, we woud have over 60 units, which we can use against 60 of their units, but with the important difference that we would come with a mixed force of slowmovers and mobile units, protected by pikes, while they only have immortals and spears. We should be able to win that.

If we look at 15 turns, we could go in with 85 units, to face their 75, again with the difference in quality. They could have upgraded to pikes around that time (at expense of having fewer units), but we should have knights, and will do all in our power to keep them from getting iron. That's an uneven battle.

This all assumes one major battle at the end of the period, if they would attack us before that (very likely), they will normally lose more troops then us, if we play it right. So, the numbers lean further to our advantage. Further, if we start advancing on their territory, they lose production ability quickly, while they can't seriously damage our production ability.

I think one of the main problems is going to be how we get our troops to the front line fast enough, so that the front hasn't moved before our units get there. I don't think many will complain about the lighthouse for long, as it means we can use boats for slowmovers, or can bypass jungle with our Chickens or catapults.

DeepO

	19-04-2003 20:12									#69
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Dom, try to contact Shiber, he's the expert

Gonna see if that room still works for me.

	19-04-2003 20:13									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus * Theseus is in awe at Vel's ability to generate PC.

This is nothing... you should see him chat. He types as fast as I can read

DeepO

	19-04-2003 20:16									#71
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I just tried to join #gatheringstorm and got kicked. Damn!

	19-04-2003 20:16									#72
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Yep, being in a chat with Vel is a very scary thing. I can well imagine that a non-native english speaker would find it difficult to keep up with reading the text as it flashes over the screen.

	19-04-2003 20:17									#73
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That's only on a good day, Deep-O....some days I don't have enough of a caffiene buzz to pull that off....

OTOH, days like today....LOL....I've been jamming! Typing here, coming up with some GREAT events for CB (doing the Fury family events first....)...good day! Don't know that my boss would agree that it was productive, but....he's not here!

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 20:19									#74
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DeepO, I will not argue your analysis, since I agree with its general point: that we've got a sizeable production advantage. What I am saying is that we need to turn it into an offensive, which makes everything that much toughter (consider that some of our production needs to go to Galleys...lots of Galleys if we actually want to bring a good chunk of our force up there in the same turn). I doubt Vox will put everything they have right now into a big attack on our most heavily defended settlement. They'll retreat, and their surviving Immortals are going to give us a heck of a time if we pursue. And add the (very real) possibility that they're getting a large amount of gpt to upgrade their Warriors, and it becomes clearer that we're not going to be swatting a fly here.


Dominae

	19-04-2003 20:21									#75
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FP, Shiber is away for now, and (as far as I know) he's the only one that can authorize people for our chat room. It's just me in there!


Dominae

	19-04-2003 20:24									#76
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Ah, cheese nachos and sweet thea... the stuff that builds champions...

Actually, I read about as fast in English as in Dutch, the probem is that from time to time, you want to write something to. If you lose focus off the screen for only an instant, you need to catch up another 5 lines of text. Indeed, scary, but I have to admit I use it too, although my speed isn't nearly as good as Vel's.

If it ever comes to having a chat with Vox, I think two people would be best to be our voice: Vel, for his swamping skills, but with the disadvantage of not being fully up to date to our former encounters with Vox (which might turn into a good thing), and Nathan, because he has been our ambassador, and has always been very friendly with them, even sometimes against the wishes of the team.

I agree we need some more observers there, who can advise in another room, though. If I can, I'd like to lurk too. But the past few times, I haven't had any luck in entering the chatroom...

DeepO

	19-04-2003 20:28									#77
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I'll be in the chat if I can, but won't be available until about 7pm Apolyton Time (midnight UK time) since I'm going out for the evening. The chat may well be over by then, but I'll come along to the "advisor lounge" and hang out if people are still there when I get home.

	19-04-2003 20:30									#78
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If they're still interested in a meeting, I'd be happy to attend. I was actually somewhat surprised that they'd want to deal with me....raised my eyebrows when I saw the PM in my inbox!

-=Vel=-

PS to Deep-O, FP, and other CB'ers here! I'll not bog down this thread with the details, but as I'm making the various "story events" for the Furies in our game, I couldn't resist at least giving you the titles so far (note that these are not in their proper order yet, but I'm massaging that now, as well as extending the events! Each event could be seen as a "chapter" in the story of the Succession Wars, told from the Fury perspective, and so far we've got:

Proudhome
The Ride
Trechery & the Death of Sir Kenna
Borderman Alliance
Trentan Settlement
The Ghost Company
Alliance with Castillar
Trentan Inheritance
Vengeance of the King

's gonna rock!



-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 20:35									#79
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Dominae, of course you're right, however my analysis was rather on the safe side. In 15 turns, it would be no problem at all to build 15 galleys on top of the 85 units mentioned here, and that's a nice navy.

Further, I assume that, in order for them to get to a mixed 1 spear / 2 immortal each turn, they are recieving the equivalent of 40 gpt from other teams, on top of whatever they have used so far. 40 gpt is huge, it will be about the total commerce production of RP. That should be enough, no need to take extra units into account, or the whole world would be sponsoring Vox.

I agree, though, we are not swatting a fly, this will be a bloody war. But I really see no option how we could lose it, and with only minimal focus, we should be able to take Vox in, a conservative, 20 turns at any rate. This includes them having the RNG God on their side, which is not really realistical with those kind of numbers to average over.

I wonder one thing: would they realize the same thing? We can see their production ability, they only have a guess at ours. Sure, they would have been better off to come in one stack straight for Arashi, instead of using this half stack. I think it will be what makes us win this war, however, it isn't really a mistake of theirs, they couldn't have known this. And we haven't won yet.

DeepO

	19-04-2003 20:40									#80
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Vel, I think part of the reason is that the rest of the forum knows that you haven't been very active in GS with all your other duties to attend to. You're more neutral then we are... a kind of referee if you like.

And kudos to the titles, they look interesting as always. But correct me if I'm wrong, weren't you supposed to finish a story that has kept us at the edge of our seat for a couple of months now?

DeepO

	19-04-2003 20:44									#81
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Indeed I am! Still working on that...or toward it, anyways....so many stories, not enough time....

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 20:47									#82
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You're evil, Vel. Don't tell me the last part was just a teaser for a new book

DeepO

	19-04-2003 20:49									#83
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I promise it was not....and it's high on my "to do list" to get the story of Jacob Dunn completed....hmmm...that reminds me....I think I can use both him and the story as event fodder for the Nilroggi event storyline....

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 21:06									#84
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Is there a chat going on?

	19-04-2003 22:03									#85
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A cease-fire?

I suppose... it would help us. Anything that buys time helps us.

1) I don't trust them AT ALL.
2) This is not an official communication

Bah, whatever, I guess. I just wanna kill 'em.

I will be away the rest of today and most of tomorrow. It's likely that I won't log on again until Monday morning.

I leave things in your collectively capable hands.

-Arrian

	19-04-2003 22:34									#86
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I haven't had time to catch up on this thread yet, but please DON'T send anything yet. As far as I'm concerned, trying to get Vox to take an action by encouraging a hope of peace when in fact no possibility of peace (except maybe for just a few turns) exists would be a vastly greater breach of honor than merely silently going along with GoW's efforts to portray them and us as being at war would be. More when I catch up on the thread.

	19-04-2003 22:50									#87
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quote: Originally posted by DeepO Vel, one request, could you post a copy of this PM to the topped Vox thread? Maybe include a link to this thread... I wouldn't want to lose such a fond memory later on, and as you can see, our board gets swamped

That could easily be seen as a violation of Apolyton rules, since Vel was specifically requested not to share the information.

	19-04-2003 23:07									#88
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That's a good point.....however, I hold no diplomatic title, and as such, the communication was never intended as "formal" inter-team communication. Still, I'll happily remove it if the consensus is to do so.

No worries....I have not yet heard back from the Voxian, so as yet, nothing is outgoing or incoming.

WRT the honor thing.....I'll not lie about it, or even stretch the truth....I'll simply offer then a two-turn cease fire if they wish to consider their terms for a peace. Not offering them any hope that we'll accept it....simply giving them a chance to weigh their options.

In essence, it'd be no different than if they opted to pull back for two turns of their own accord. Nothing we could do about it.....I'm just....planting the seed....

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 23:16									#89
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quote: Originally posted by Velociryx WRT the honor thing.....I'll not lie about it, or even stretch the truth....I'll simply offer then a two-turn cease fire if they wish to consider their terms for a peace. Not offering them any hope that we'll accept it....simply giving them a chance to weigh their options.

(Emphasis added)

That's the point: if we give them the impression that there is a possibility that the cease-fire would be a prelude to peace, we are manipulating them into doing something based on a false impression of reality - not really any different in kind from what GoW wanted us to participate in. Yesterday, there was all this talk about how dishonorable it would be to go along with GoW's scheme. Today, I'm hearing almost no similar reservations regarding this matter. What happened to all those words about the worthlessness of honor if we're willing to sell it if the price is right?

Nathan

	19-04-2003 23:30									#90
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Nathan, I honestly think that there's actually a good chance for a 10 turns NAP here. We can use it to build up troops and culture (which will be necessary if we're the conquerors). Vox would want it because they want to regroup (realizing that their approach so far is strategically flawed), and they want to produce more immortals (thinking that they're so smart to cut their own iron and virtually triple the rate at which they produce immortals).
Who knows, if Vox agrees to become a vassal state, peace could stretch to as much as 20 turns. There's also the possibility that Vox would want to take another shot at Bob, now that they have a serious force - I would be in favor of letting them be while they're fighting off-shore.