26-05-2003 00:58									#121
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc The Germans showed us how relaxing it can be. Wasn't it thier nastional sport for a while?

They now prefer football

	26-05-2003 00:58									#122
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Not really. Mutual invasions were part of the neighbourhood for a 1000 years like barbecue and witchburning.

	26-05-2003 00:59									#123
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler GP: "1. The regime change 20 years ago wasn't "ours" in the sense of being engineered or of being an invasion." "your" regime change was the overthrowing of Mossadeq in the early 50s. Which resulted in the Shah regime. Which resulted in the islamist revolution in 1979. "Appeasement avoids a conflict, but it has consequences as well." Who's talking appeasement? Do you see Truman as an appeaser?

1. That is a very long chain of events with other actors involved. (And I thought when you said 20 years ago, you meant that we should have propped up the shah.)

2. The appeasement comment is meant as more of a general principle. Just because an event leads to negative results on one time scale doesn't mean that it shouldn't be done anyway for moral reasons or because of the result on another time scale.

	26-05-2003 01:01									#124
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Don't misjudge the Yanks' balls

Well their treshold for ripe-for-attack so far is 1.5 billion $ military spending. Going after Iran would raise the treshold to I think 10 billion.

	26-05-2003 01:05									#125
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Explain it again. It was too whacky a conspiracy theory for me to remember.

Damn, that was a lot of posts, I have to quote now.

In summary (back before we over-ran Iraq, I believe):

-we take Iraq, move bases to Iraq and other, friendlier nearby nations.

- move bases out of Saudi

-we withdraw support from Saudi regime

-Saudi regime falls (one way or the other) to Wahabist extremists, threatening regional stability

-we move in, "to restore order".

	26-05-2003 01:06									#126
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"1. That is a very long chain of events with other actors involved. (And I thought when you said 20 years ago, you meant that we should have propped up the shah.)"

Ah, just the usual misreading. I said: "Well, we know what your last regime change in Iran created about 20 years later."

No word about "20 years ago". But I guess that's sophism, right? At least got the reference.

"Just because an event leads to negative results on one time scale doesn't mean that it shouldn't be done anyway for moral reasons or because of the result on another time scale."

And when an event leads to negative results, the action should not be repeated without considering the risk of those results.

If this Iraq adventure fails, democracy in the arab world is dead for another 50 years. And it's about certain it will fail. It would be very difficult anyway, but with an administration that manages to drive even ancient allies to apoplexy? Forget it.

	26-05-2003 01:07									#127
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The real plan is to build Iraq up into a swing producer. Iraq and Russia would then be swing producers and the fall of Saudi Arabia wouldn't mean the end of the world economically. Right now, if Saudi Arabia decides to embargo, we're Fvcked with a capital F.

	26-05-2003 01:08									#128
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk -we move in, "to restore order".

But what's the point in that? You think you can reeducate the Saudis? Or just another gaspump-conquest?

	26-05-2003 01:08									#129
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Well, Tony wouldn't survive being a poodle on this one. I still think he'll be in deep **** once it gets clear how much he lied to justify the Iraq war.

He's doing ok, right now. Public opinion shifted in the direction of supporting his position rather than the opposite. So far events have gone his way...

	26-05-2003 01:10									#130
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quote: Originally posted by GP He's doing ok, right now. Public opinion shifted in the direction of supporting his position rather than the opposite. So far events have gone his way...

After a "successful" war, no surprise, though the nrs are weak in comparison to gulf war 2 or Falklands.

Just wait.

	26-05-2003 01:14									#131
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The goal is the same as it has always been.

Did you see, they're already moving bases out? They're moving a bit faster than I expected.

	26-05-2003 01:15									#132
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "1. That is a very long chain of events with other actors involved. (And I thought when you said 20 years ago, you meant that we should have propped up the shah.)" Ah, just the usual misreading. I said: "Well, we know what your last regime change in Iran created about 20 years later." No word about "20 years ago". But I guess that's sophism, right? At least got the reference. "Just because an event leads to negative results on one time scale doesn't mean that it shouldn't be done anyway for moral reasons or because of the result on another time scale." And when an event leads to negative results, the action should not be repeated without considering the risk of those results. If this Iraq adventure fails, democracy in the arab world is dead for another 50 years. And it's about certain it will fail. It would be very difficult anyway, but with an administration that manages to drive even ancient allies to apoplexy? Forget it.

1. Yeah, I didn't understand your comment about 20 years later. I guess my bad. It doesn't help how you like to drop in little non-explained grenades. Many, many people have a problem with you in terms of your communication. But I will try to be better at reading your comments and about asking for clarification.

2. Yes, actions with bad results should not be repeated. Neither should non-actions. The point is which will have more effect--the action or the nonaction. And you have to consider different time scales.

3. You're not one of our allies. Your country is neutral. You advocate a European military union (without the US). And you agree that the raison d'etre for NATO went away in 1989. And is it us driving the "ancient allies to apoplexy"? Or is it the French continuting their Gaulist seperatism (force de frappe, non-full participation in NATO, etc.) And so what if we drive them to apoplexy. If I decided to do the right thing and it drove you to apoplexy, it would still be the right thing. Why should you be able to Jewish-mother me and not the reverse?

	26-05-2003 01:21									#133
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "1. That is a very long chain of events with other actors involved. (And I thought when you said 20 years ago, you meant that we should have propped up the shah.)" Ah, just the usual misreading. I said: "Well, we know what your last regime change in Iran created about 20 years later." No word about "20 years ago". But I guess that's sophism, right? At least got the reference. "Just because an event leads to negative results on one time scale doesn't mean that it shouldn't be done anyway for moral reasons or because of the result on another time scale." And when an event leads to negative results, the action should not be repeated without considering the risk of those results. If this Iraq adventure fails, democracy in the arab world is dead for another 50 years. And it's about certain it will fail. It would be very difficult anyway, but with an administration that manages to drive even ancient allies to apoplexy? Forget it.

Do you know how to speak?

	26-05-2003 01:22									#134
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler After a "successful" war, no surprise, though the nrs are weak in comparison to gulf war 2 or Falklands. Just wait.

Fair enough. Time will still tell. It is very early in the story. But opposition was much stronger earlier. One could imagine a scenario where things had gone different and opinion swung the other way (remember the Bagdhad entree dillema? ). But it hasn't happened so far. If we have a Vietnam situation, than things may still play out to your side.

Anyway, Saddam is gone from his position of power in Iraq. That makes me breath easier. He signed his death warrent with the Kuwait invasion. No reason for him to be around anymore after continuing to misbehave during "parole".

GW2 is an interesting comparison. It was opposed by 80% of the Democrats in the Senate. (Actually voted for a resolution AGAINST the use of US forces in the conflict as well as against a tandem resolution supporting the president using these forces.) I doubt even many of the Democrats who voted this way, would do so again. Witness there votes this time round...

	26-05-2003 01:24									#135
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Oh...and it's still a long chain of events.

	26-05-2003 01:30									#136
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GP:

"Many, many people have a problem with you in terms of your communication."

So have I with certain people.

"The point is which will have more effect--the action or the nonaction."

Indeed. And on Iraq, it is difficult to find any positive consequence apart from Saddam being gone. But a good deal of negative ones.

"You're not one of our allies. Your country is neutral."

We are not your allies, but we are no more neutral.

"Or is it the French continuting their Gaulist seperatism (force de frappe, non-full participation in NATO, etc.)"

France was on board in gulf war 2, Bosnia and Kosovo.

"If I decided to do the right thing and it drove you to apoplexy, it would still be the right thing."

There is as much a problem of style as one of substance. Bush has failed to give a convincing reason for the Iraq adventure. Non-existant Al Qaeda ties, non-existant WMDs, Sadam is bad, remaking the ME - what was it? But an amazing arrogance that anyone opposing an illegal and stupid war is an enemy.

Well be careful what you say about people, they may just turn out that way.

	26-05-2003 01:32									#137
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Those americans are crazy

quote: The Bush administration, alarm-ed by intelligence suggesting that al Qaeda operatives in Iran had a role in the May 12 suicide bombings in Saudi Arabia, has suspended once-promising contacts with Iran and appears ready to embrace an aggressive policy of trying to destabilize the Iranian government, administration officials said.

couple that with the pre-election promises

quote: A great country strives for great objectives. The two big goals at the center of my agenda are expanding peace and freedom throughout the world, ...

edit: it actually sounds a lot like that movie " I come in peace"

quote: In Short I Come In Peace combines the basic elements of a cheesy cop movie and a cheesy alien movie to create… a cheesy action movie with cops and aliens. Fans of Dolph Lundgren or B-grade action will get a kick out this film, though.

	26-05-2003 01:33									#138
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler France was on board in gulf war 2, Bosnia and Kosovo.

No they weren't.

	26-05-2003 01:34									#139
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Iran's going down, if they don't pull their head's out.

	26-05-2003 01:35									#140
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GP: "If we have a Vietnam situation"

Vietnam in Iraq? Nope. Lebanon, maybe.

Dino: "No they weren't."

I count Iran/Iraq as Gulf war 1.

	26-05-2003 01:35									#141
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Not before Saudi.

	26-05-2003 01:36									#142
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler There is as much a problem of style as one of substance. Bush has failed to give a convincing reason for the Iraq adventure. Non-existant Al Qaeda ties, non-existant WMDs, Sadam is bad, remaking the ME - what was it? But an amazing arrogance that anyone opposing an illegal and stupid war is an enemy. Well be careful what you say about people, they may just turn out that way.

I was more worried about our guys getting killed. I can live with the pissing contest and the Jewish mothering.

	26-05-2003 01:38									#143
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"I count Iran/Iraq as Gulf war 1."


You mean from 12-15 years ago ?

	26-05-2003 01:38									#144
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TMM & Sloww: You guys are wierd.

	26-05-2003 01:39									#145
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quote: There is as much a problem of style as one of substance. Bush has failed to give a convincing reason for the Iraq adventure. Non-existant Al Qaeda ties, non-existant WMDs, Sadam is bad, remaking the ME - what was it? But an amazing arrogance that anyone opposing an illegal and stupid war is an enemy.

As long as Iraq stood, we were in no position to threaten Saudi, Syria, or Iran.

That's your reason.

	26-05-2003 01:45									#146
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Now just why am I weird?
I only try to clarify the time frame.
That's not weird.


Being a sawbones for a dinosaur, now that's a bit odd.

	26-05-2003 01:47									#147
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"Erm, I thought we were talking about Iran ?
Does Iran take a significant chunk of its income from opiates " Are Iran and Afgan different economies like California and Texas.Who drew this damned map a Arab or A Brit?,was there a sign at the border that said U.S troops stop here ,all terrorist please continue.What are the Arabs trading in besides OIl and were does it come from I mean the income..MY pont is santions won't work against Iran since there is other income.Black market fuel weapons,and narcotics ect The

	26-05-2003 01:49									#148
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quote: Originally posted by Vandal-1 "Erm, I thought we were talking about Iran ? Does Iran take a significant chunk of its income from opiates " Are Iran and Afgan different economies like California and Texas.Who drew this damned map a Arab or A Brit?,was there a sign at the border that said U.S troops stop here ,all terrorist please continue.What are the Arabs trading in besides OIl and were does it come from I mean the income..MY pont is santions won't work against Iran since there is other income.Black market fuel weapons,and narcotics ect The

I don't understand what you are saying.

	26-05-2003 01:49									#149
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc TMM & Sloww: You guys are wierd.

I never thought we would agree so fully.

	26-05-2003 01:51									#150
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk As long as Iraq stood, we were in no position to threaten Saudi, Syria, or Iran. That's your reason.

So it's about a little empire building around the oil?