05-09-2003 11:14									#61
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Nein Herr Rechtsberater

It's more like everybody that didn't get fired is working 3 different jobs.

	05-09-2003 11:19									#62
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Tell that to the BLS, seems they miss 2.1 out of 3 jobs.

	05-09-2003 11:20									#63
	Remove this text

How come you don't get a job with BLS? Or their Austrian counterpart?

	05-09-2003 11:25									#64
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

For the BLS, I don't like those pink glasses.

	06-09-2003 22:15									#65
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Here's a good article with regard to a running discussion that Colon and I are having with regard to Sony.

Sony is restructuring, with a goal of 10% operating margins by '06. A move to more modular production in lower cost areas (sound familiar, Colon? ).

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...p=1012571727088

Personally, I wonder how anybody could be satisified with a move from 4% operating margins to 10% operating margins with the kind of golden brand name that Sony has. It seems to me to be a continuation of the pervasive Japanese business culture of running a profitless business (Toyota excepted, in a pretty spectacular fashion for a car company).

Sony is going to continue to touch foreheads against the likes of Microsoft, which has operating margins of 37% and R&D spending of about $5 billion. Or now even GE, the VVVBUSC, which has operating margins of 14%.

	06-09-2003 22:29									#66
	Increase Your PM Length

Don't obsess on OM. look at FCF.

	06-09-2003 23:06									#67
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Does that change the analysis?

	06-09-2003 23:10									#68
	Got spare money?

Don't know. But it often does. And if so, you want the better FCF, not the better OM. OM is subject to a lot of games that FCF is not subject to.

	07-09-2003 19:42									#69
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

In any event, operating margins was the benchmark used in the article, so that's the comparison that I used.

	24-09-2003 20:15									#70
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Here's an article about 3G, which as you know I've always been down on. At least $100 billion in good capital down the crapper--just for the licenses. Brings a tear to my eye.

http://www.economist.com/business/d...tory_id=2072901

FT had a good article about how Canon is bucking the no-profit Japanese corporate ethos by focusing on profits and R&D (yes, revolutionary concepts, I know). Sales are flat, but gross margins are at a relatively healthy 48% and the bottom line is looking increasingly good.

With regard to R&D, I've been particularly jaded about Japan. I see way too many companies that spend a lot of money in areas where their products are largely undifferentiated. A half dozen or so companies make almost identical products and at the end of the day nobody makes any profits. Repeat until oblivion.

Given the fact that R&D is an expense like all others, I'm somewhat skeptical about Canon's approach. This is especially so, considering that the R&D is meant to drive sales and Canon's sales have been flat. The more important piece of the puzzle of its recent success seems to be cost control and smart marketing. But I guess R&D takes some time to bear fruit. I'm positive on the concept of R&D driving sales.

	24-09-2003 21:13									#71
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

An even more interesting Bloomberg article:



It's Time for Deutsche Bank to Get Out of Germany: Matthew Lynn
Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Some corporate moves would be social and political dynamite. Coca-Cola Co. quitting the U.S. to protest the invasion of Iraq would be one. Sony Corp. leaving Japan because of the failure of reform would be another. Deutsche Bank AG moving out of Germany on account of the growing anti-business culture of its home country would be a third.

The first two are pure fantasy. The third? Who knows? Unbelievable as it sounds, it could happen.

In London last week, the Financial Times and the Times of London ran stories suggesting that Deutsche Bank may leave its Frankfurt base and relocate. Maybe it would go to London, maybe somewhere else. But it would get out of Germany.

The reason? The latest provocation is said to be the decision by a Dusseldorf court to make the bank's chief executive, Josef Ackermann, stand trial in connection with payments made to former Mannesmann AG officials after that company was taken over by Britain's Vodafone Group Plc for $186 billion three years ago.

Deutsche Bank was quick to deny the reports it might leave Germany -- and to deny that Ackermann would quit over the issue.

Still, the ``Deutsche Bank to Quit Germany'' story comes around with the regularity of the seasons. We've heard it before and we'll hear it again, as the bank's patience with the high-tax and heavily regulated regime of its home country wears thin.

You don't need to be an expert in the black art of public relations to figure out what's going on. Deutsche Bank quietly suggests it may leave Germany. The story runs. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has a mild heart attack as he reads it and commands all his ministers to be extra nice to the bank. Then the speculation is quickly denied.

Bickering Couple

Germany and Deutsche Bank increasingly resemble a tired, bickering old couple. ``I'm going to leave you,'' shrieks the wife as her husband once again forgets their anniversary. ``This time I mean it, I'm really leaving,'' she cries even louder as her birthday passes uncelebrated.

But now is the time to make good on those threats. Ackermann should pluck up his courage and get out. If he doesn't, it is hard to see how the bank, which should be the mightiest in Europe, can avoid slipping into the second division.

The questions for Ackermann are, ``What's holding the bank back?'' and ``Where would it go?''

Politically, a move by Deutsche Bank out of Germany would be explosive. But that's a problem for the politicians. As a cold business decision, it would be hard to fault.

Germany is holding Deutsche Bank back -- and it needs to do something fast if it is to keep its place at the high table of the world's most important banks. Deutsche Bank has a market value of just 32 billion euros ($36.6 billion), less than BNP Paribas SA, Banco Santander Central Hispano SA or Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. It is only because of its history that we still think of Deutsche Bank as a big European bank.

Leaving Home

The record shows that banks can quit their home territory and flourish. HSBC Holdings Plc famously moved its domicile out of Hong Kong before the 1997 transfer of authority over the territory from Britain to China. It then turned itself into one of the most successful banks in the world.

Deutsche Bank could do the same. It doesn't need to have its headquarters in Germany any more than HSBC needed to be domiciled in Hong Kong or Shanghai.

It would face a potentially devastating backlash from German customers distraught at what at least a few people would surely see as a betrayal of the homeland.

Still, who cares?

Domestic Sympathy

For one, retail and small-business lending is a relatively small portion of Deutsche Bank's portfolio. For another, many Germans would sympathize, particularly in the business community. Infineon Technologies AG is one company that's been threatening to quit Germany. Other businesses considering a new headquarters are more likely to applaud a decision to move abroad than they are to cease trading with Deutsche Bank in protest.

Ackermann could win as many new customers as he loses.

Where would he go? London and Zurich are the two obvious choices.

London is Europe's most important financial center. It has the skills Deutsche Bank needs, and the company already has a big operation there. Compared with Germany, the city has relatively low taxes and regulation. But both are rising all the time. There would be little point in going through the trauma of leaving Frankfurt only to relocate somewhere that was starting to copy German regulations and taxes.

Switzerland

Zurich is a more natural home. It's a German-speaking city and another great banking center. The taxes are low and the culture is business-friendly. It is close to the center of Europe, which is Deutsche Bank's natural market. And it is home to UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group, the two other European banks that, like Deutsche Bank, aim to be big players in global corporate banking.

Based in Zurich, Deutsche Bank executives wouldn't have to deal with as many court cases. They could shake off Germany's suffocating taxes and labor laws. And they could set about the task of rebuilding the company as one of the world's great banks.

Who knows, they might even do the homeland a favor. Deutsche Bank's departure could well be the catalyst that finally convinces the German government that its business community needs to be embraced, not hounded out of the country.

	24-09-2003 21:16									#72
	Increase the size of your Attachments

I never quite understood why Germans have such a completely Byzantine banking system. When you think about it, Deutsche could be the unquestionable No.1 in Europe, but no, the Germans just HAVE to have Sparkasses, Hypothekenbanks, Bausparkasses, Landesbanks (all AAA rated, for a very good reason ) etc. Deutshe, iirc, can't even go and collect retail deposits.

	24-09-2003 21:19									#73
	Full PM-box? Change here!

How high are the taxes in Germany? How tight are the regulatory controls? How bad are the labor laws?

It always seems tough to find concrete answers. Then I hear about things like maximum overtime laws in France and suddenly things start coming into focus (what exactly are they thinking?).

Edit: They can't even collect retail deposits? Hmmm...

Last edited by DanS on 24-09-2003 at 21:25

	24-09-2003 21:22									#74
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Fed's Poole says long term US econ prospects superb

http://reuters.com/financeNewsArtic...&type=bondsNews

quote: I am optimistic about the U.S. economy. The recent performance of productivity has been stunning," he told Reuters while attending a conference in Moscow where he was due to deliver a speech. "I think that promises high performance for the US economy in the long run ... I think that long term prospects are absolutely superb," he added.

	24-09-2003 22:05									#75
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Originally posted by Saras The reason? The latest provocation is said to be the decision by a Dusseldorf court to make the bank's chief executive, Josef Ackermann, stand trial in connection with payments made to former Mannesmann AG officials after that company was taken over by Britain's Vodafone Group Plc for $186 billion three years ago.

They caught a pig at the trough, and that's now anti-business?

I suggest the NYSE instantly relocates to the Bahamas.

	24-09-2003 22:08									#76
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by DanS How high are the taxes in Germany? How tight are the regulatory controls? How bad are the labor laws?

You can't quantify it. Everytime economists try it, they make idiots of themselves. Just an example: Law says "The workweek is 35 hours". This can be a big problem, or totally irrelevant, depending on the legal consequences.

"Edit: They can't even collect retail deposits? Hmmm... "

Huh?

	24-09-2003 22:39									#77
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Huh?

I was surprised when Saras said this...

quote: Deutshe, iirc, can't even go and collect retail deposits.

Of course, not all banks do this in the US. But since Glass-Stiegel was lifted, I think there has been no bar to them doing so.

	25-09-2003 01:50									#78
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Originally posted by DanS I was surprised when Saras said this... Of course, not all banks do this in the US. But since Glass-Stiegel was lifted, I think there has been no bar to them doing so.

Well Saras does not remember correctly.

http://www.deutsche-bank.de/pbc/index.html

DB once wanted to bundle its retail banking business in DB24, maybe that's the source of confusion...

	25-09-2003 06:05									#79
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler You can't quantify it. Everytime economists try it, they make idiots of themselves. Just an example: Law says "The workweek is 35 hours". This can be a big problem, or totally irrelevant, depending on the legal consequences.

And depending on the business and on human preferences. Precluding places from working people 100 hours a week would not hurt a company much, since it is rarely efficient workwise and since people will refuse the workload. On the other hand, it is often the case that two people at 20 hours a week are nowhere near as useful as one person at 40. There are economies of scale for learning and the like and they differ depending on the nature of the work.

Of course we have to try to measure the impact of these things even though it is hard. Journal of Labor Economics has some good papers sometimes. And it's not always the "number" or the specific micro-study but the insights into the business issues (framing the problem.)

	25-09-2003 06:53									#80
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by DanS Fed's Poole says long term US econ prospects superb http://reuters.com/financeNewsArtic...&type=bondsNews

Anyone want to guess what productivity growth will be when the US economy is expanding again?

	25-09-2003 07:01									#81
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Expanding again? We've been positive for 2 years.

	25-09-2003 07:06									#82
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by DanS Expanding again? We've been positive for 2 years.

I don't consider it an expansion period yet.

edit: When we get there we will know for sure. Most people aren't sure right now.

	25-09-2003 11:29									#83
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Well Saras does not remember correctly. http://www.deutsche-bank.de/pbc/index.html DB once wanted to bundle its retail banking business in DB24, maybe that's the source of confusion...

So what's the deal with mundane Sparkassen dominating retail deposits?

	25-09-2003 14:13									#84
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious I don't consider it an expansion period yet. edit: When we get there we will know for sure. Most people aren't sure right now.

So, all it requires is for us to think happy thoughts and we're there?

	25-09-2003 14:22									#85
	Put an end to popups!

So the Chinese economy grows by 7.5% both this and next year, according to the IMF.

Will the world be full of chicoms in 10 years?

	25-09-2003 14:24									#86
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Isn't the chinese figures questionable? I've heard a few words about that they are manipulation them. Maybe some of the economy-nerds here knows more about that.

	25-09-2003 16:02									#87
	Suffering from ads?

There are many difficulties in comparing growth rates across economies - as I have said before here

I have done several studies comparing constant-price GDP growth rates to current-price GDP converted using Purchasing Power Parities, here are some results:

'Correction factor' (i.e. what to add or subtract from the reported growth rate) for selected economies, with US growth rates as a base:

United States: 0.0% (obviously )
Japan: +0.4%
Germany: +0.6%
France: +0.1%
Britian: +0.4%
Italy: +0.5%
Canada: +0.4%
China: -2.3%
India: +0.5%
EU15: +0.5%


I find it interesting to compare the more-often reported statistics with the 'adjusted' values and also correcting for population growth:

'corrected' growth in GDP per head 1993-2003:

United States: 2.1%
Japan: 1.4%
Germany: 1.9%
France: 1.8%
Britian: 3.0%
Italy: 2.1%
China: 5.5%
India: 4.7%
EU15: 2.5%

	25-09-2003 16:04									#88
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Yeah but aren't the chicoms still going to be everywhere in 10 years? 20 years? 50?

	25-09-2003 16:16									#89
	Increase Your PM Length

Actually my long term (50 year) forecasts show China's GDP only equalling the US's level in 2050.

It will continue it's rapid rise from the current 55% of the US level to around 80% in 2030, then the rise will slow significantly (as the effects of their one-child policy cause the workforce to shrink)

	25-09-2003 16:17									#90
	Remove this text

yeah but they will catch up? danger!!