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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:30
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Okay, this is the thread which will be officially dedicated to the war against GCA. Initial planning, and ongoing discussion about the war should go in this thread.
It is now turn 'X', where 'X' is a situation on a turn not planned for. So don't read this post any more. 
Preparation:
"Turn 0" will be the turn we declare war and cross the border.
Our invasion army will consist of 38 units the turn we declare war. This includes 20 Medieval Infantry, 7 Numidian Mercenaries, 3 Horsemen, 5 Catapults, 3 Warriors and 1 Settler.
Army Group A will consist of 8 Med Infs., and 3 NMs along with both Warrior scouts and the elite Warrior for a total of 14 units.
Army Group B will consist of 12 Med Infs., 3 Horsemen, 3 NMs, 5 Catapults and all other forces added on to the invasion for a total of 23 units.
Since GCA has pop-rushed a Temple in Elucidium we will need a Settler to build a fort 2-2 of Cuido de Alcohol to allow us to move adjacent to Elucidium and kill all of the GCA units we can see now on the turn we invade. The Settler has been in place as of turn -4.
The Plan:
AGA will be used as a semi-decoy force (only semi because it remains powerful force by itself) for the first few turns. If the main GCA homeland army is somewhere up north and engages our front units, AGB can sweep in from behind and wreak havoc on AGA's attackers. However, they will have to be merged into one stack once we drive further into GCA territory (especially as we approach GCA cities) to prevent GCA from being able to hit us two turns in a row without us being able to retaliate (where they can first attack AGA then AGB again after they merge since we'll be in enemy territory).
After AGA and AGB merge we will drive south as fast as we can move, pending GCA cutting their roads as we advance.
The crux of this plan is in destroying GCA units, which is our main goal. AGA will be used as bait in getting GCA to try and confront our army, while AGB will come in from behind to destroy whatever GCA brings forward. We will have a much greater industrial base than GCA, which means they will not be able to replace their losses nearly as fast as we can. If we both take equal casualties they will run out of units much faster than we will, ignoring the fact that our units are in an era beyond theirs. Their cities will fall in time: our main concern is in killing their units.
AGC will be formed in the fort city, and sent south when deemed strong enough to be of assistance.
Possible GCA Responses:
GCA is rapidly retreating its units from the CFC theater, so it will likely not be long into the war before we have to confront the bulk of their army. GCA will most likely do one of three things:
- Confront us early with their army:
This is the best case scenario for us. GCA sees our relatively "weak" invading force, and may try to attack it early on in the war (pre-Algalord). We will be able to sweep in from behind with AGB and destroy the bulk of their homeland army. We would then have to defeat the other half of their army later.
- Confront us later with their army:
This is the most likely scenario. They ignore our army until the bulk of their forces from CFC reunite with the rest of their homeland defense. When they believe their army to be strong enough to defeat us, they mass all of their units and try to attack us. This is most likely to occur once we reach Algalord or afterwards. We should make sure to have AGA and AGB merged by the time this possibility arises.
- Turtle:
GCA leaves all of their units in their big cities trying to avoid a confrontation. This will take a long time to root out and would require a lot of GA resources to dig them out. However, based upon what we know about GCA's tactics this situation is somewhat unlikely.
Turn-by-Turn:
- Turn -5: Units upgrade where possible, and newly produced units make their way south towards the AGA/B staging point.
- Turn -4: Units continue to move towards the AGA/B staging point.
- Turn -3: Iron is reconnected. 7 Warriors and 1 Swordsmen will be upgraded to Medieval Infantry for a total cost of 440 gold.
- Turn -2: Newly upgraded units (8) move as far south as they can. This puts them in Karina. Other scattered units continue to head for the AGA/B staging point.
- Turn -1: All units in Army Group A and Army Group B will assemble on the tile 2 of Cuido. This should include all 37 units, except for the 2 blocking Warriors which will join AGA, 2 Catapults which will join AGB and the injured Horseman.
Warrior BigFree will be stationed on the neutral road tile at Cuido 2-1, while WWNN will be at the tile 2-2 of Cuido. This is to prevent GCA from seeing AGs A or B the turn before we invade.
- Turn 0: At the start of the turn we will investigate Elucidium and possibly Zarigueya, for a cost of ~46 + 17 gold (at the moment, with Elucidium at size 4), seeing what GCA has assembled in the city.
The Settler will move 2 and build a fort city which will assist in the invasion.
Any Catapults available in AGB (should be all 5) will move 2 then bombard the two stacked GCA units on the iron. With a bombard of 4 each should have a 50% chance of hitting its target. Once bombardment is complete, MIs in AGB will kill all units except for the elite Sword 6 of Elucidium, where an AGA MI will do so.
If any wounded GCA units remain, an NM from AGB will kill it to start our GA. AGB (everything we have outside of AGA) will move 2 into the fort city, where it will stay out of GCA's sight even if GCA moves units beyond AGA.
The newly split-off AGA (8 MIs, 3 NMs, 3 Warriors) will move in its entirety to the tile 6 of Elucidium (where the elite GCA Sword stands now).
- Turn 1: AGA will attack and capture Elucidium (it should be above size 1 so we can capture it instead of auto-razing). The unused forces from AGA will move forward to 7-7 of Goatcity, and AGB will move into Elucidium. An NM will be detached and will move to the road 4-7 of Zarigueya (if possible) to try and ward off any forces which may head west from Zarigueya and might spot AGB or cause other kinds of trouble.
- Turn 2: On this turn we may be forced to merge AGA and AGB into one stack, because AGB will no longer be able to reach beyond AGA and hit any GCA units which might attack AGA. The bolstered Army Group will move 7 of Goatcity in preparation for a massive assault on the city (if they don't disband it). If they do disband it, we continue on towards Algalord (perhaps keeping AGB a secret if we can).
- Turn 3: At this point things get a little sketchy, since it's likely GCA will have pillaged roads or abandoned cities, but we can continue on as best we can.
If Goatcity is abandoned, we may have to use an offensive Settler to set up a camp to advance on Algalord (since it has very nasty culture). We will definitely have to have AGA and AGB merged for the advance on Algalord. We move adjacent to the city, keeping our strength massed in one main stack to avoid being hit en masse by GCA units hiding in cities. Luckily our vet NMs will be very hard to penetrate, and if they did make another army with that Leader then we'll either see him a ways away or we'll be able to pound him hard the turn after if he attacks us first.
- Turn 4+: From this point on we have to mass our units and pound GCA cities as best as we can, funneling units down as fast as possible, and repairing any roads which may be pillaged as we make our way south. Once we capture Catchopolis the war will be effectively cleanup (except we will have to face off with the GCA army retreating from CFCs-ville) as our units pour through their land and destroy every unit in sight.
Image of the theater:

Graphical Representation of the Plan:
This is a (more) simple graphical representation of the basic plan for the first four turns of the invasion.
Turn 0

This should be the result of the first turn of our invasion. Ideally, all 4 GCA units we can attack on the first turn will be killed without costing us any casualties. With the 5 Catapults we have a good chance to do ~3 HP damage to the GCA Sword and Spear fortified on the iron, giving us a good shot at killing them both without losing any MIs.
Also, the GCA Horseman was attacked by a MI, where it then retreated and was finally killed by an NM to start our GA.
Army Group A is 6 of Elucidium/Rye, Army Group B is in the fort city.
Turn 1

In this shot for turn 1 we have captured Elucidium and the rest of AGA has moved forward in position to attack Goatcity/Outpost.
Our blocking NMs are now in place to keep Zarigueya/Dancing isolated while Army Group C is formed to capture it. Meanwhile AGA and AGB continue moving south. Army Group B is placed in Elucidium/Rye to remain out of GCA's sight for another turn.
This is the only turn in which AGA is really vulnerable at all. AGB cannot attack beyond AGA, leaving our army open to attack for a turn before we can mount a serious retaliation (if you consider the threat of 8 MIs not very serious, of course...).
Turn 2

Goatcity/Outpost is captured by AGA, where it stays in order to catch up with AGB for the assault on Algalord (most likely the point where GCA's main army will be stationed to try and stop our invasion). AGB is now 1 tile behind AGA as the blocking NMs remain in place (may be replaced later, but I'm not accounting for AGC or reinforcements).
Turn 3

In this final screenshot AGA and AGB merge outside of Algalord. The next turn they will capture the city and continue south as a merged entity.
As I said before, Army Group C has not been included in this simple run-through, though it should arrive sometime between turns 3 and 5 to capture Zarigueya/Dancing.
Note this sim also does not account for roads being cut, which could delay us quite a bit especially if we don't have any accompanying Workers (*cough*cough*).
Last edited by Trip on 07-10-2003 at 22:24
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:30
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CFC
This is a screenshot of the GCA army near CFC as of 510 BC (turn 103):

It shows 4 Swords (2 elites in the Army, another elite heavily damaged), 3 Horses (2 elite) and 1 Spearman. 8 units total, 7 thirty-shield units. Based upon their army being about the same strength as our own (with 15 Swords & Horses with a number of NMs) I estimate the GCA army at around 15 thirty-shield units total (I would guess higher, but they have a very large proportion of elite units, so that's likely to make their army "seem" more potent than their actual size), so they have approximately half of this estimation over near CFC.
Octavian has said these are the only units they've seen from GCA in a rather long time (so the rest are probably camping out at home).
CDG
I had a chat with Kentonio this afternoon to see what he could tell me what he knew about GCA.
CDG had 6 Immortals and 2 Spears just outside of Algalord when GCA hit them with approximately 6 units (2 regular Swords, 2 regular Horses and 2 regular Spears, according to rumor) and utterly decimated this force in two turns. They waited for CDG to approach and hit them from the city, which is likely what they'll try to do against us at some point (if they feel they can do damage to our stack).
In the final assault on Elucidium GCA attacked with 2 elite Swords and 3 veteran Horses, which killed 3 vet Spears and an Immortal in a single turn, so we can assume at least 4 of these 5 units are still alive somewhere.
Kentonio says that they are very "arrogant" and won't pillage roads/abandon cities as we advance because "they'll hope to kill us" using "any dirty trick they can."
According to MRex about 5 or 6 turns ago GCA got another leader off of CDG, which escaped and whose presence is unknown. It could have been used for another army, it could have built the Heroic Epic, or even the Forbidden Palace. We know it has not been used to build a wonder.
...
If all of these units that we've heard about are still alive, that would give GCA 5 elite Swordsmen (2 in an army), 1 vet Swordsman, 1 elite Horseman and 5 veteran Horsemen. This adds up to a total of 12 thirty-shield units which is fairly close to the 15 I predict they have. We should note that half of the confirmed forces are Horsemen, which suggests that they are rather Horseman-heavy (compared to what we will be), which is an advantage in that a vet Horse only has a 25% of defeating a vet NM.
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Randolph
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Burlington, VT
Sep 2002 time: 00:30
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Although Catchopolis is certainly a fortress of a city, I doubt they'll decide (or should decide) to make they're stand there. You're probably right that they would be most likely able to hold out the longest by pulling back to their capital and taking shots where they can, but there is almost no way they can win the war this way.
If GCA looses everything north of Catchoplis they are finished, their three or four existing cities cannot hold up to us. If we are allowed to move throughout their land with little opposition we can ravage their land, deny them resources, perhaps even grab the cities behind Catchoplis. We would win a slow, but largely risk-less war. Even their returned armies from the CFC front would do little to save a three-city nation in the long run.
Their only chance at survival is to defeat our army quickly and set up a strong defensive front or sue for peace. Yes, the changes of this succeeding are very slim, but it is better then the certain defeat found by falling back to their capital.
If I were GCA I would engage offensively as soon as possible, probably north of goatcity, definitively before Aglalord. Elucidium might be sacrificed (definitely disbanded, it would be easier to re-build then to take a walled city w/ NM) if my odds were significantly better by pulling back a city. I would make a stand at Aglalord only if there seemed to be no chance of victory before that. Agalord cannot fall; I would role the dice before this.
Maybe they will be scared and shortsighted causing them to pull back to Catchoplis, but I wouldn't count on it. If they do this we should take it slow once we get to Catchoplis, taking advantage of our vast economic superiority and offensive position.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:30
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If we march south with our big stack and they have a lot of units (15 or so, which they should be capable of) in the fortress of Catchopolis that would be bad bad news for our stack. Even with 25 units (~20 of which are offensive) the odds are bad for taking the city, and we'd have to wipe out every last unit they have there. Mind you, they'd probably be mauled just as we would, but we'd both have to build armies from scratch again, and they would be able to fill the void between Catchopolis and everything we captured. Meanwhile we waste more of our GA building units and the war starts over from square 1 again. I would rather deal a destructive blow on the flats and sweep through their undefended cities after that. That means them doing the opposite of that would be best for them, and worst for us.
Mustering 15 units in one city if they concentrate all they have should be within their reach. With a little luck (which they seem to be swimming in, at the moment) they could hold off against our first attack wave, then counter-attack with Swords. If our NMs are intact, then we should dish out more than we take, but all their units in front of our stack is bad however you look at it, unless they're out on the flats, which I would welcome. 
As I said before, the key is luring them out into the open for a fight. I would hope this is something they would do, but if they prepare for a climax at Catchopolis don't be surprised if things get ugly...
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Fried-Psitalon
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Not just another pretty face.
Dec 2002 time: 00:30
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If GCA concentrates EVERYTHING in one city, why do we neccessarily have to take that one? If Catchopolis becomes "Turtleopolis" (I think this is actually rather likely) then why don't we sweep past it and smash another city?
Once we are within our GA-production, how long would it take to create AGC (Army Group C) and bring them into position?
If GCA plays it maximum smart and tries to fight us inside Catchopolis (again, I think this is VERY likely, and you win wars by assuming your opponent will do as much as possible right) then why don't we blow past Catchopolis, take OTHER towns, raze them to the ground... this would give GCA more incentive to face us in the field. By razing, rather than capturing, we ensure that GCA will not be able to retake them, and we effectively doom GCA in the long haul by removing piece after piece of their production base. GCA can certainly defend ONE city against us, but once we get to Catchopolis, if they still haven't attacked us - screw em, let's go burn some easier targets down and wait on AGC.
And hopefully, if the timing is right, as they move into the field to face us, AGC will sweep in from the north, giving GCA the devil's own decision, and giving us a hammer-and-anvil situation with Catchopolis square in the center.
Exactly how long would it take to create an AGC force to move down after the offensive begins? If we're researching at 10 percent, we ought to be pulling in a bit of cash.... how fast can we slam together a third army group?
Last edited by Fried-Psitalon on 14-08-2003 at 22:41
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Randolph
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Burlington, VT
Sep 2002 time: 00:30
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Fried-Psitalon,
Exactly what I was trying to say. Perhaps I could have been more clear.
Trip,
You're scenario is very realistic, but the massacre at Catchopolis is unnecessary. As FP stated, just don't engage them, keep their main force tied up in Catch and strike at points of opportunity. Maybe make a run at balance of power, deny resources, and pillage their land. Meanwhile we can amass a huge number of troops that can make the final assault on Catch.
My point is that a Turtle can hold us back, but it cannot defeat us, at some point they must engage us or become a city-state. What small chance they have for long-term survival rests on engaging us before we turn them into a three-city province.
A Turtle strategy would only be effective if we are actually stupid enough to assault a city on a hill across a river. Otherwise it's only tying up tons of units in a city of only moderate strategic importance.
By the way, I'm not saying that this means the plan needs to be reworked in any major way, I just wouldn't be so confident in an essential "march to their core". It's a good plain, but it may need to be tempered a bit.
Blitzkrieg worked wonderfully in Poland and France, but overly ambitious action in Russia created disaster after disaster.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:30
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quote: Originally posted by Fried-Psitalon
If GCA concentrates EVERYTHING in one city, why do we neccessarily have to take that one? If Catchopolis becomes "Turtleopolis" (I think this is actually rather likely) then why don't we sweep past it and smash another city? |
No, but they will have an advantage of mobility (especially with Horsemen), which means our Horses must be on pillage duty once we reach GCA proper.
quote: Once we are within our GA-production, how long would it take to create AGC (Army Group C) and bring them into position?
If GCA plays it maximum smart and tries to fight us inside Catchopolis (again, I think this is VERY likely, and you win wars by assuming your opponent will do as much as possible right) then why don't we blow past Catchopolis, take OTHER towns, raze them to the ground... this would give GCA more incentive to face us in the field. By razing, rather than capturing, we ensure that GCA will not be able to retake them, and we effectively doom GCA in the long haul by removing piece after piece of their production base. GCA can certainly defend ONE city against us, but once we get to Catchopolis, if they still haven't attacked us - screw em, let's go burn some easier targets down and wait on AGC.
And hopefully, if the timing is right, as they move into the field to face us, AGC will sweep in from the north, giving GCA the devil's own decision, and giving us a hammer-and-anvil situation with Catchopolis square in the center.
Exactly how long would it take to create an AGC force to move down after the offensive begins? If we're researching at 10 percent, we ought to be pulling in a bit of cash.... how fast can we slam together a third army group? |
Once we hit our GA stride we should be producing around 105 shields per turn in our main cities. That's over 3 NMs/Horses a turn or over 2 and a half Med Infs per turn. So in 5 turns that's about a 13 unit balanced army. 10 turns is 26 units.
If they do turtle then we do have some options, but it will be hard to determine exactly where they're concentrating.
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asleepathewheel
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listening too long to one song
Mar 2002 time: 00:30
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I wouldn't count on the GA yet, in the early turns, if they pull back and turtle, our NMs might not have a chance to kill anything for a while.
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