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Arnelos
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of the Free World
Sep 2002 time: 00:31
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Ok, those worried about Republic making CGN too powerful too quickly against GWT and their immenent discovery of Chivalry and switch to Ansar Warriors have forgotten a rather important factor:
CGN is playing the Ottomans, which are NOT a Religious civ... they will undergo several turns of anarchy when and if they switch to Republic, so giving them Republic when GWT charges them would be a rather useless gift... they aren't going to switch to Republic when they have Ansar Warriors bearing down on their cities. For Republic to be useful, they'll need it well BEFORE a war.
The question then is how soon we believe GWT will not only have Chivaly, but will be in a position to use it. Furthermore, given how soon we believe the war might start, how soon before the war starts do we CGN would need Republic in order to be in Republic for the start of the war and to be able to reasonably defend themselves from the GWT attack without CGN itself becoming too powerful or CGN being too weak to stop the attack.
These will not be easy things to answer and we probably need the world map along with some idea of current force compositions to get any realistic handle on the answers to the above questions.
That said, we can probably go ahead and discuss how useful Republic would be to CGN right now. I'm sure Trip can use the knowledge of CGN's current MFG and GNP and make at least a rough estimate of their MFG and GNP under Republic. Then we can figure how many turns (very roughly) until GWT probably gets Chivalry... how much of a production advantage will CGN have over GWT in that time? Then, if the advantage is too much, how long should we delay before giving CGN Republic? etc, etc, etc.
As for NYE's comments about CGN, I actually got a similar impression from reading their history... these guys are clowns who were likely benefited by a lucky starting position. They're currently on a high because they stomped the inferior Grenoule.
As for CGN-GWT relations, we honestly just don't know enough right now about that to give a true assessment. I was the one arguing weeks ago that two powerhouse civs on a single continent with no-one else to fight is a recipe for CERTAIN conflict, but even I have to be at least a little skeptical and hold out the possibility that they MIGHT work together instead (though it's rather unlikely).
Ultimately, I think our goal is unquestionably to attempt to maintain a balance between GWT and CGN. To do that, we MUST discover who is currently the more powerful between them and then act to prop up the other just the necessary amount to keep the balance (and make a profit off of both of them in the process if possible ).
On the other hand, it might be advantageous for us to have the stronger of the two START a war with the weaker of the two, THEN have us prop up the weaker one. This reduces the chances that they will easily resolve their differences when Navigation comes around and inter-continental warfare becomes more possible.
A lot to think about, for sure...
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MrWhereItsAt
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New Year's Resolution: 2005 is the year of Where It's At - come get some.
Nov 2001 time: 17:31
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Prior formed opinions notwithstanding, in addition to personalities and political interests, there is another issue that directs the allegiances of nations - even more so in this game than in reality - ease of communication.
It appears as if CGN may be uniquely easy to get a hold of for us (matched for others only by OUR availability), and WAY more so than GWT. This will certainly put them in a favourable light for us - the same deal proposed to both civs, under otherwise equal circumstances, would go first to the civ that communicated best and quickest. GWt has a language barrier, but that does not totally explain their reticence in emailing us back. We can't let this cloud our decisions, but it seems to me we may be with CGN for a large section of the game.
From reading their history, it strikes me how much CGN's actions resemble those of our objectives - despite having mutually favourable deals with neighbour Grenouille, they realised that these would be the first targets of their inevitable first war - and with good reason, from what little cold hard fact can be extracted from their history. Is this not exactly what we are doing with GCA - starting a war in which we hope to eliminate the target for no better reason than it benefits us? CGN may be canny and very efficient - despite the fact that early in their history they allowed their capital to enter civil disorder.
It is of course a mistake to buttonhole someone from so little contact (as I am perhaps about to do!), but I think this team may be very good for us, whilst our ambitions coincide. But at the same time we cannot give them any quarter, as they know exactly why they are in this - to win for their team.
Here's hoping for some good foreign affairs exchanges before too long. I guess I'll go register at CGN...
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Arnelos
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of the Free World
Sep 2002 time: 00:31
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As I said in the FA correspondance thread, I'm posting a short chat I just had with miccofl here:
quote:
miccofl> long time no see
Arnelos> yeah
Arnelos> I've had connection problems recently
Arnelos> how are things around here?
miccofl> that sucks
miccofl> well as I said to BigFree earlier we will be done with montheism in 4 turns, we need to discuss future tech cooperation
Arnelos> I saw that in our FA thread when I was trying to catch up earlier
miccofl> have you finished Invention yet?
Arnelos> I honestly don't know
Arnelos> I do'nt believe so, however
miccofl> see if you can find out when if you would please
Arnelos> sure
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Togas, I assume from what I've read on the boards here that it is our intention to keep our deal with CFC regarding Monotheism. We are also a good 26 turns away from Invention at the present research rate.
What, exactly, should I tell CGN regarding Monotheism, Invention, and any future deals?
On a related issue, I assume from its absense in the FA logs, that no-one has yet told CGN about our breaking of the NAP with GCA. If so, I'll find a way to bring it up when chatting with miccofl in the near future.
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