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LoneWolf
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Similes. The last resort of the brainless.
I'm off to bed. I know you, Paki, like most Greeks, don't work, but I've got to get up tomorrow.
Last edited by LoneWolf on 23-09-2003 at 12:19
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Main_Brain
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Economic World Center
Jul 2002
time: 06:31
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The Oil Reserves in Iraq were unknown at that Time.
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Drake Tungsten
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Knee deep in alien womyn...
Oct 2001
time: 14:31
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quote:
Then again, any strategy of NOT attacking Russia might have involved a NEAR future Russian attack on Germany, from jump-off positions very close to Germany. |
This is the only real argument I can see against the Mediterranean Strategy. Like AH said, however, it was probably possible to defeat British forces in the Med and North Africa with a small portion of the total German army, leaving a significant force to deter any Soviet invasion.
quote:
Spain wasn't going to join the war without major Axis victories, and major Axis victories would have greatly minimized the usefullness of the Spanish. |
I don't see how you can be so confident in your belief that Spain couldn't be persuaded to help Germany. I'm inclined to agree with this statement by AH...
quote:
It is difficult to see however how Franco could have maintained his opposition if Hitler and Mussolini had really pressured him given that Spain was a fascist state and the Axis powers had helped Franco win the civil war. |
Hell, even if Franco was particularly intransigent, Hitler still had the threat of a German invasion to hold over his head. For some reason, I think Franco would've given the Germans the transit and basing rights they wanted very quickly if Hitler had really put the screws to him.
quote:
Japan has no reason to go to war against the Soviets |
A major faction in the Japanese military, backed by the IJA, pushed for a Northern Strategy involving a war against the Soviet Union as an alternative to the Southern Strategy, pushed by the IJN, that was eventually followed. The fact that the Southern Strategy eventually won out does not mean that the Japanese didn't have reasons to attack the Soviet Union.
quote:
The invasion of Russia, without first securing the Southern flank, was bound to fail. |
I hate it when people act like Barbarossa was doomed from the get go. The Germans had some bad luck and made some mistakes, yet still came perilously close to beating the Soviets in 1941. The invasion was hardly "bound to fail"; change one of any number of variables and you're looking at a great military triumph instead of a blunder.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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AH,
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The mediterranian strat can be achieved with a fraction of the forces, no more than 20% or as little as 10%, leaving the bulk of German forces to deter possible Soviet aggression. |
Hmmm, 20% of the German army. Well, that comes to about 5 panzer divisions and a few dozen infantry divisions. How is this force being supplied? The Italians didn't have enough ships to do this, and the Germans didn't have nearly enough transport aircraft to make up the difference.
And who is in command of this force? Rommel? Remember that he wasn't nearly as good at commanding large bodies of troops.
Drake,
quote:
I don't see how you can be so confident in your belief that Spain couldn't be persuaded to help Germany. I'm inclined to agree with this statement by AH... |
Spain could easily have been persuaded to militarily join the Axis - AFTER major German victories in the Med. Spain wasn't about to get sucked into the losing side in WW2.
quote:
A major faction in the Japanese military, backed by the IJA, pushed for a Northern Strategy involving a war against the Soviet Union as an alternative to the Southern Strategy, pushed by the IJN, that was eventually followed. The fact that the Southern Strategy eventually won out does not mean that the Japanese didn't have reasons to attack the Soviet Union. |
Granted, but two things to consider. First, the needs of Japan dictated that the logical course of action was the Southern strategy, and second, even if Japan DID attack the Soviet Far Eastern Front, the disparity in combat power between the two nations was heavily skewed in favor of the Soviet Union, even with most Soviet equipment in the West. Siberia could have become another China, and all of a sudden Japan has two major ground wars and can decisively win neither one, and certainly cannot spare the troops to seize the resources it needs in the Pacific.
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CerberusIV
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The Soviet Union was in no position to attack Germany in 1941/2. The T34 and KV1 tanks barely existed as more than prototypes, the air force had obsolete aircraft and the whole concept of mechanised offensive warfare devised by Tukhachevsky was in the political wilderness. Stalin was desperate not to provoke Hitler.
A push in the Balkans to rescue the Italians, another panzer division for Rommel and the deployment of significant air assets to the Mediterranean would have been enough to drive the Royal Navy out, starve Malta and take Egypt. This would have only taken a fraction of the resources used in Barbarossa. Fleigerkorps X nearly drove the Royal Navy out of the Mediterranean. Additional bomber and reconaissance aircraft under German control could easily have done the job, especially if backed up be a few experienced U-boats.
Hitler's biggest mistake wasn't declaring war on the Soviet Union, it was declaring war on the USA. From that moment on Germany could not hope to produce enough war material to hold off the Allied forces.
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Sandman
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Sinister Penguin
Aug 2001
time: 05:31
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First off, Spain was not going to join the war against Britain, and here's why: Britain will seize Spain's colonies. Equatorial Guinea, the Canary Islands would probably be grabbed without difficulty, with the Canaries making a handy base. Other outlying posessions in the Med would be at risk. Why would Franco trade these lands for Gibraltar, especially when (a) Taking Gibraltar would be a bloodbath and (b) he can probably get Gibraltar if the Axis wins anyway.
Does Italy attack Greece in this scenario? If it does, then everything happens historically, with the Greeks kicking ass, and the Italians having to be bailed out by the Germans. Churchill will probably still attempt to defend Crete, rather than take Tripoli and lock down Africa (always the peripheralist).
Without Spain, this effectively boils down to what happened historically, except with more German land units available, although they still have to reserve most of their army to deter the Soviets.
Adding German units to the Afrika Corps would probably not have had an arithmetic increase in performance, with larger supply lines and all the vulnerability that entails. Notice that smaller forces (first the British, then the Germans) were able to outperform larger ones in the desert. We would probably have seen the same sort of back and forth warfare as seen historically.
I don't buy the idea of the Italian fleet being able to harass in the Atlantic if they locked down the Med either; I don't think that they were equipped for blue-water warfare, and the technology gap would probably have seen them in severe trouble.
Britain is also outproducing Germany in terms of aircraft at this point. With no invasion of the SU, it is considerably less likely that Hitler will be prepared to gear up for total war (remember what happened in WW1).
To sum up, I think what would have happened would be a slightly more intensive conflict, but it would ultimately remain a stalemate, probably preparing the way for a status quo peace some years later.
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Andrew1999
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quote:
Originally posted by Alexander's Horse
My God some of you people are so ignorant of the basic facts of the war.
The Germans threw 200 divisions at the Soviet Union in June 1941.
At that time in the Mediterranian the sum total of British forces was like 10 divisions max, probably more like 5 but I'd have to look it up. Of those divisions, about 3 were battle worthy. One of them was Australian.
Rommel almost expelled Britain from Egypt with German 3 divisions and a couple of Italian divisions. What would he have done with 10 German divisions? Or even 5? |
Well, he couldn't get enough supplies (especially gas) across the Med and through Africa for 3 divisions, so I suppose 7 of those 10 would sit in Tripoli and Benghazi and play cards.
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Bosh
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Taehan Mingook
Jan 1970
time: 00:31
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as far as Spain goes:
STRICTLY SECRET! BERLIN, August 8, 1940
Operation: Gibraltar
Conditions for Spain's entry into the war
According to a memorandum presented in June of this year by the Spanish Embassy, the Spanish Government declares itself ready, under certain conditions, to give up its position as a "non-belligerent" state and to enter the war on the side of Germany and Italy. The Spanish Foreign Minister, and also the Minister of the Interior, have up until the last few days repeatedly pointed out this Spanish offer to me, so that it may be assumed that Spain even today will keep its promise made in June.
As conditions for entry into the war, the Spanish Government cites the following:
1. Fulfilment of a set of national territorial demands, Gibraltar, French Morocco, that part of Algeria colonized and predominantly inhabited by Spaniards (Oran), and further the enlargement of Rio de Oro and of the colonies in the Gulf of Guinea;
2. Making available military and other assistance required for carrying on the war.
The memorandum of Admiral Canaris enclosed here [1] gives detailed information regarding the extent of military assistance apparently necessary.
Besides this military assistance, however, economic support of Spain will also be necessary. To this belong, above all else, the delivery of gasoline and, at the beginning of next year, delivery of grain for bread. According to a recent utterance of the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs (of the third of this month) Spain, due to its shortage of gasoline, can wage war without our help 1 1/2 months at the most As concerns the grain for bread, the Minister believes that Spain has sufficient supplies until about March of next year. I consider this latter supposition as too optimistic, unless a strict rationing is carried out.
Besides this necessary assistance however, Spain, beginning with entry into the war, will with respect to a number of other commodities as well be exclusively left to the resources of German and Italian aid.
Advantages of the Operation
1. The effect of the declaration of war on England by a new country will be very strong in England and on the entire world; England's prestige and her prospects for victory will receive a new severe blow, while-upon success of the operation-our prestige will be greatly increased.
2. England will no longer be able to carry on trade with Spain thus will receive from there no more ores and above all no more pyrite.
3. Nullification of English property rights in ore and copper mines, et cetera.
4. A victorious execution of the operation will mean the control of the Straits.
Dangers of the Operation for Spain
1. It would be possible that England, after becoming aware of Spain's war preparations would beat Spain to the draw and begin war operations.
2. For this purpose she could attempt to extend the territory of Gibraltar in order thereby to make the attack upon Gibraltar more difficult. England could further occupy the Canary Islands, Tangier and the Spanish colonies, operations which without doubt will result at least in part after the outbreak of war. Spain even considers the Balearic Islands as being threatened.
3. A break between Spain and England can have consequences for Portugal. The English could occupy Lisbon and Lagos or other places in Portugal so that Spain would have a land front. In case of an occupation of Portuguese harbors Salazar is said to have naturally held out to the Spaniards the prospect of military counter-measures, and to have declared himself agreed to a Spanish entry for rendering assistance against England.
4. Outbreak of the war between Spain and England can bring events to a head in North Africa, especially Morocco, where the situation is very tense. Spain distrusts the Resident General Nogues who is said to be ogling with the English. Therefore a cooperative English-French-Moroccan operation against the Spanish zone and Tangier would be possible.
5. Because of debilitation resulting from the Civil War, Spain is economically unfit to carry through to the end a war lasting more than a few months, if she does not receive economic aid from German and Italian quarters. Aside from gasoline, this, as mentioned above, is true of grain for bread as well.
6. As a result of an intensification of the grave economic situation and eventual starvation and as a result of political and military set-backs (loss of islands, of the colonies) domestic riots could result. This danger I do not consider as very grave at first, since the Army is intact. Should the war be of longer duration however, the situation could become serious.
Difficulties and Dangers for Us
1. For transporting the necessary war material to Spain, only the railroad line Bordeaux-Hendaye-(border)-Irun-San Sebastián-Burgos and so forth and the road running parallel are available. Within the border area occupied by our troops there is only one other passageway over the Pyrenees, namely, at St. Jean Pied de Porc. According to information from General of the Infantry von Both in Biarritz, only passenger cars and light trucks can travel on this pass-road because of its narrow curves. The transporting of all war material must therefore go along the coast where for long stretches, between Bayonne and San Sebastián, the railroad and the road can be observed and fired upon from the sea. A further difficulty exists in the fact that the Spanish railroad has a different gage from the French so that reloadings are necessary and such equipment as railway guns cannot be transported on. Heavy artillery and other [artillery] are therefore confined exclusively to the roads.
2. The claims upon Germany to deliver weapons and supply special troops should meet with no objections. On the other hand, should the war be of longer duration, the economic assistance requested of us could represent a great burden (especially with respect to nutrition).
If the operation is undertaken, it is in any case necessary:
1. To have the preparations go forward in as camouflaged a manner as possible, to make available in Spain supplies of gasoline and war material (ammunition, bombs) which can be unobtrusively transported by railroad and truck, and, not until the last moment, to bring the heavy guns collected in the south of France across the border by fast transit and into the prepared emplacements, while the air arm is absolutely not to make its appearance until the operation begins in earnest.
2. The moment for initiating the preparations and the operation itself must be adjusted to the expected development of things in England itself, in order to avoid a too early entry of Spain into the war, that is to say, a period of war unendurable for Spain, and thus under certain circumstances the beginning of a source of danger for us.
STOHRER (German Ambassador in Spain)
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:31
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quote:
Originally posted by Boshko
as far as Spain goes:
STRICTLY SECRET! BERLIN, August 8, 1940
Operation: Gibraltar
Conditions for Spain's entry into the war
Besides this military assistance, however, economic support of Spain will also be necessary. To this belong, above all else, the delivery of gasoline and, at the beginning of next year, delivery of grain for bread. According to a recent utterance of the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs (of the third of this month) Spain, due to its shortage of gasoline, can wage war without our help 1 1/2 months at the most As concerns the grain for bread, the Minister believes that Spain has sufficient supplies until about March of next year. I consider this latter supposition as too optimistic, unless a strict rationing is carried out.
5. Because of debilitation resulting from the Civil War, Spain is economically unfit to carry through to the end a war lasting more than a few months, if she does not receive economic aid from German and Italian quarters. Aside from gasoline, this, as mentioned above, is true of grain for bread as well.
6. As a result of an intensification of the grave economic situation and eventual starvation and as a result of political and military set-backs (loss of islands, of the colonies) domestic riots could result. This danger I do not consider as very grave at first, since the Army is intact. Should the war be of longer duration however, the situation could become serious.
1. To have the preparations go forward in as camouflaged a manner as possible, to make available in Spain supplies of gasoline and war material (ammunition, bombs) which can be unobtrusively transported by railroad and truck, and, not until the last moment, to bring the heavy guns collected in the south of France across the border by fast transit and into the prepared emplacements, while the air arm is absolutely not to make its appearance until the operation begins in earnest.
2. The moment for initiating the preparations and the operation itself must be adjusted to the expected development of things in England itself, in order to avoid a too early entry of Spain into the war, that is to say, a period of war unendurable for Spain, and thus under certain circumstances the beginning of a source of danger for us.
STOHRER (German Ambassador in Spain) |
Spain needed grain/bread. Britain would interdict sea supplies as soon as spain entered the war. Not enough rail capacity to bring it in by land.
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Jack_www
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This I think would have lead to Germany winning the war in the end. Since they could not attack Britain directly they could do it by attack Britain's colonies and crush them slowly that way. Also they would not be fighting a war on two fronts and would help focus on geting the suez canal. This was way more do able then trying to attack Russia when Germany was still at war with Britain and latter the United States.
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Jack_www
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
win at el alamein, take Alexandria, find that the port facilities have been destroyed by the brits. Run out of fuel. Wait for the port to be repaired (with equipment and supplies brought overland from Libya on deficient transport network. Maybe he can close the Suez canal. He cant get much further, relying on overland transport to Iraq. And if he waits long the brits will blow up the Iraqi oil facilities (which Germany doesnt have the resources to quickly fix) Meanwhile Operation Torch is happening in NorthWest Africa.
Now if you're talking 1940, that at least gives him more time before Torch. But still very difficult logistical problems, the likelihood of oil facilities destroyed, etc. And taking the canal still leaves open the route around africa to India and Australia. Which is mainly what the Brits used after 1940, IIRC. |
The main problems with the supply chain came from the fact the the allies could crack the Germans coded radio communications. BUt I think with total controll of Mediterranean Sea along with the use of sea and air transports to drop off the needed supplies and giving Rommel 10 more armor divisions to fight the British I think it could be done.
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Jack_www
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You move use German ones and move them into Mediterranean. You can also using cargo ships from Germany and other Axis countries. Germany had a merchant fleet too.
Also I would use both Air and sea to get him the supplies he needed.
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Jack_www
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Yeah I would attack in Middle east right after the fall of France and just forget Britain. I would put most of the focus on taking North Africa and the Middle east from the British and close the Mediterranean Sea. Also I would do what the allies did during when they invaded France, contruct harbors out at sea with floating road ways that you can use trucks to carry the supplies to the shore.
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23-09-2003 12:13
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