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Andrew1999
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I don't see how this would work. First off, Spain wasn't going to join the war. Second, you're matching Britain's strongest point with Germany's weakest if you go for a surface navy vs. surface navy battle royale.
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SKILORD
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Live free or Die
Mar 2002
time: 05:31
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Or Would we be wondering why he didn't cruch the Soviets when he obviously had the power to crush them (If it weren't for Adolf 'Playing at General' Hitler they would have won as well)?
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Perhaps they would have won World War Two, in fact, I am almost certain that if they had focused the forces that they spent in Russia on Britain she would have cracked like an egg under a blitz. It was a mistake to try two blitzes a once, they were too slow, untrue to the strategy which had suceeded in France. Had they actually Blitzed England then Winston Churchill would be remembered as a martyr.
Now the Japanese and Germans begin cooperating, planning the landings and attacks on the Pacific ports of the Soviets which will create a two front war for Stalin.
In the Spring of 1943, their forces well amassed, Germany declares war on the Soviet Union, followed rapidly by a surprise attack on Vladvistock, a tragedy which the American President would even condemn. But President Roosevelt would declare his neutrality in the Issue. Despitre this he begins shipping war supplies through Alaska to the Soviets. Our Siberian Pirates, lead by Dolittle, manage to keep the Soviet Union alive for a full year and a half longer than any fair estimate would have left them otherwise. The Soviet Union as a nation is declared disbanded (1945), following the Atomic bombings of Kazan and Tbilisi, the latter is recognised as the final Resting place of Stalin.
Shocked by this new weapon the United States commands it's scientists into a new level of fury, they have the bomb by 1947, and make clear the principle of Mutual Assured Destruction to the Nazis who are already preparing an invasion of the last vestige of Freedom.
America is flooded with Immigrants, unmarked, unnamed vessles are found throughout the American coast, Canada closens ties to America. Another nation to recieve an upsurge in Immigration is, ironically, Mexico.
Following the 'Immigrant Revolution' of 1951 Mexico Establishes a system of nonregulation and of Liberty which has become the most prominent feature of the Americas (The freer Mexican government will last until present day. The Cold War is fought in Africa, where the South Africans are pushed north by the Americans and their 'ATO' (American Treaty Org.) Apartheid is tolerated in the face of Nazi agression and American troops will. in our darkest hour, often come to enforce this upon the Africans.
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In 1994 The Nazi Empire is all but fallen apart. Statism has failed. Across the Atlantic the Americans have likewise left themselves poor contenders, having placed price cpas on many items and having taxed the hell out of it's mighty economy to fight a far harsher and bloodier 'Cold' War. However to the South there is still hope, he Republic of Mexico's thriving Economy makes it a superpower, caring for the wounded troops of past battles, a belaugered United States and a devastated Europe.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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Then again, any strategy of NOT attacking Russia might have involved a NEAR future Russian attack on Germany, from jump-off positions very close to Germany.
In any case, AH, I see little reason to believe that the Italians could have gained naval superiority in the Mediterranean. They had horrible naval leadership, and their fear of the RN greatly affected their actions and deployments. Further, even if naval superiority/parity could have been attained, it is difficult to see how a huge German/Italian force in Africa could have been supplied, seeing as how most of Italy's and Germany's merchant marines were sunk or interned early in the war.
Getting Spain into the war was a possibility, but it would have required a large Axis victory - probably larger than a hypothetical success of Operation Herkules, but rather something along the lines of a total Axis victory in Africa. Once Spain was sure it would be on the winning side, and only then, would it join the Axis, or even simply allow the Axis to use Spanish territory to seize Gibraltor (which, by the way, would have been no cakewalk).
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Combined, the German/Italian and possibly French fleet could provide a real threat to the British navy in the Atlantic once the Mediterranian was secured. |
This is completely incorrect. Remember what happened to the French fleet at Toulon - it scuttled itself rather than be captured by the invading Germans in 1942. I just can't see the French fleet joining Italian/German forces en masse for naval battles against the British, in spite of the British sinking the French fleet in North Africa (and yes, I'm well aware of the Jean Bart vs. Mississippi duel).
In any case, there could have been little coordination between these fleets, and certainly no combined leadership. The prissy French (say what you will about the French, but their higher-ups of the time could CERTAINLY be called prissy) would not let an Italian or German command their fleet. The Italians wouldn't subordinate their fleet either, out of pride, and the Germans simply weren't stupid enough to let an Italian or Frenchman command their fleet. There would have been massive language and supply problems, and even assuming the entire German/Italian/French fleets could have combined, the Royal Navy would still have outclassed them. Remember that the Bismarck and Tirpitz weren't even around that early in the war, nor was the Jean Bart or any of the newer Italian cruisers, and that this is PRIOR to the loss of the Hood, Prince of Wales, Repulse, etc.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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Regarding Spain, by the way, the STRONG possibility also exists that it would have been a net DRAIN on the German war effort, requires huge influxes of raw materials such as oil, and semi-modern weapons, all of which Germany needed.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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SKILORD,
quote:
Perhaps they would have won World War Two, in fact, I am almost certain that if they had focused the forces that they spent in Russia on Britain she would have cracked like an egg under a blitz. It was a mistake to try two blitzes a once, they were too slow, untrue to the strategy which had suceeded in France. Had they actually Blitzed England then Winston Churchill would be remembered as a martyr. |
And how would England be blitzed without having German troops in England? Remember that the Germans had their hopes dashed by September 1940, with their absolute failure to gain air superiority. Get a firm foothold on England, and then we'll talk, but remember too that even German air superiority over the Channel and English Channel ports DOES NOT mean the would have had air superiority over the battlefield - British aircraft operating from fields further to the north could not have been intercepted by German fighters flying from France.
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Now the Japanese and Germans begin cooperating, planning the landings and attacks on the Pacific ports of the Soviets which will create a two front war for Stalin. |
Sounds nice, but this isn't gonna happen. Japan has no reason to go to war against the Soviets - and a couple of GREAT reasons NOT TO. Reason 1: Their major defeat at Nomonhan. Reason 2: Attacking the Soviet Union would not have gotten them any oil or any rubber, which was the whole reason they went to war anyway. And remember, too, that Japan didn't have the resources to go after the DEI, various Pacific Islands, the Philippines, AND the Soviets.
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The Soviet Union as a nation is declared disbanded (1945), following the Atomic bombings of Kazan and Tbilisi, the latter is recognised as the final Resting place of Stalin. |
Where'd you get this fantasy from? There is no way in hell the Germans would have gotten an atomic bomb by 1945.
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In 1994 The Nazi Empire is all but fallen apart. Statism has failed. Across the Atlantic the Americans have likewise left themselves poor contenders, having placed price cpas on many items and having taxed the hell out of it's mighty economy to fight a far harsher and bloodier 'Cold' War. However to the South there is still hope, he Republic of Mexico's thriving Economy makes it a superpower, caring for the wounded troops of past battles, a belaugered United States and a devastated Europe. |
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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To quote your location tag, "Oh yeah?"
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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quote:
Franco had a battle hardened army which would have been very handy for the Axis. |
Possibly, once the Axis - namely Germany - supplied Spain with some quality equipment.
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Spain joining the war would have opened the possibility of another peninsula war like in the Napoleonic wars, Churchill actually seriously proposed an invasion of Spain to open a second front in 1943, |
Churchill proposed all kinds of things, from going back into Greece to sailing a battlefleet into the Baltic. None of this actually ever happened, and the Americans certainly wouldn't have allowed an invasion of Spain. Hell, if Spain joined the war and the Brits lost Gibraltor and Egypt and the Middle East, Churchill would have probably lost power.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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quote:
HOw does Turkey play into all of this? |
They were in the same boat as Spain. Actually, they had a resource Germany badly needed - chromium - as well as occupying a strategic position. However, they were not likely to join the war until it had already been won (which, historically, they did, on the Allies' side). Like the Spanish, they would have required MAJOR German arms and resources shipments, and would have given the Germans even less material aid than the Spanish, in the context that by the time they would have given the aid, the Germans wouldn't have needed it.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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As for the Jasp joining the Germans, well the Germans control the Middle Eastern Oil so they can always try to bribe the Japs with that. |
First of all, the Germans would have needed much of this oil for themselves and their allies. Secondly, I fail to see how the Germans are going to ship oil from the Middle East to Japan - remember that a LARGE proportion of oil was refined at the Abadan complex, which the British surely would have destroyed if the Germans were likely to take it. Further, the Japanese aren't going to want to be reliant on a European power for their existance - Germany could control Japanese moves by threatening to cut off the oil. Japan needed it's OWN source of oil.
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I grant that you may have some point regarding the duifficulty of conquering Britain. However as AH noted at the beginning it would only require a sufficient humiliation (Let us say Suez now) |
No, losing Suez MIGHT bring about Churchill's fall from power, but it certainly wouldn't mean the English would simply surrender.
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Urban Ranger
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Apolyton Duke of Off-Topic
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quote:
Originally posted by SKILORD
In the Spring of 1943, their forces well amassed, Germany declares war on the Soviet Union |
That would most likely be pre-empted by a Soviet offensive on Nazi Germany. Not deployed in defensive positions, it would be likely that many German divisions got crushed during the beginning attacks, much like what happened during Barbarosa.
The USSR will attack Germany if Germany didn't attack first. Hilter knew this. In fact, many contend that, the Soviet Union was within weeks of launching an attack when Barbarosa started. Perhaps Hitler got wind of this, and knew that he couldn't wait any longer.
In fact, the longer you wait, the further the pendulum will swing to the USSR's side, as they would recover more from Stalin's purge.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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quote:
Once the Middle East fell, Germany would have been in a strong position to get Turkey to either join the axis or collaborate with German plans for the eventual attack on Russia - the Black Sea, the Crimea and the Caucasus are all cracked wide open once the Dardanelles are under Axis control. |
The problem here is that the Turkish army was worse off than the Spanish army. Weak Red Army forces in the Caucasus would have probably shredded any Turkish offensive. Major operations against the Crimea would have required a good deal more shipping and amphibious assets than the entire Axis even had, and even if they got ashore, I don't see where they could have gotten air cover from (unless of course the front lines are close enough by that point, which sorta seems like an amphibious operation against the Crimea would be of limited value).
And remember that Turkey was going NOWHERE without promises of German hardware, and if Germany failed to deliver, Turkey could have achieved little or nothing.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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In fact, the longer you wait, the further the pendulum will swing to the USSR's side, as they would recover more from Stalin's purge. |
On the other hand, if commanders such as Budenny and Voroshilov and other "political reliables" were running a Red Army offensive, my guess is that it wouldn't fare too well.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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No need - the idea would be to use Spanish troops for second and third order priorities like occupation work thus freeing up German troops for higher priority activities. |
Of course, German occupation troops in the West were largely either the dregs of the Germans army, shattered divisions, or soldiers recuperating from wounds, so I'm not sure what putting these guys on a major front achieves, except more casualties. The Germans still have to supply the equipment for the occupation troops.
Putting these guys on occupation duty in the East is a possibility, I suppose, but the large-scale use of the Spanish Army on occupation duty in the Soviet Union during the winter would probably be largely opposed by Franco.
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Part of the plan was precisely to inflict such humilating and demoralising defeats on British forces as to cause the fall of Churchill's government. If the British 8th army had been defeated in 1941, combined with the loss of Singapore and much of Britain's Eastern empire in early 1942, it is difficult to see how Churchill's government could have survived. Churchill himself believed if he lost Egypt he would lose government. |
Possibly, but a fall of the Churchill government doesn't lead to the fall of Britain. And in any case, if we're talking about a 1942 timescale now, then the US is already in the war - making a British loss impossible and outside the realm of the imagination.
And losing Egypt does NOT guarantee the fall of Churchill, by the way.
But all of this is predicated on the notion that Spain would join the Axis PRIOR to a major Axis victory in the Mediterranean, and I've already pointed out that this was quite unlikely. If Germany can take Egypt on its own, what's the point of buying off Spain so it can take out Gibraltor, and if Germany can't take Egypt on its own, Spain probably won't join the war. It's kind of a catch-22.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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Now, given that the Soviets outproduce Nazi Germany, and that a large contingent of troops would be needed in the UK to guard against uprisings, the worst case scenario is probably an attrition war that Germany loses slowly |
This assumes two things. First, that the production difference in favor of the Soviets exceeds the "destruction of equipment" difference in favor of the Germans, and that Germany is occupying Great Britain. The first is quite unlikely, with the German Army on the defensive in its prime, and the second is quite impossible.
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David Floyd
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The bottom of a large bottle of beer
Jan 1970
time: 05:31
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Oh, and by the way, the Soviets didn't outproduce Germany by as much as you seem to think they did, and without Lend Lease, this production difference would be even slighter.
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23-09-2003 08:24
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